Draisaitl @ 8.5/8yrs vrs Matthews @ 11.63/5yrs
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The Winter Soldier
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It's a fact the Leafs are deeper offensively than the Oilers are. Playing the he is playing with McDavid narrative(whom it has been showed McDavid's stats suffer also when not playing with Leon) is not entirely accurate.
One would say playing on a deeper, higher scoring, high chances team as Matthews plays on is even more beneficial to playing on a less deep, less offensively talented team as Draisaitl plays on.
And this is not even touching on defensive play.
Draisaitl's 5 v 5 GA per 60 is far better than Matthews 5 v 5 GA per 60.
Once again,
Drai 8.5 mil/year
Matthews 0.925 mil/year
Matthews wins by a landslide
Okay going into next season, based on this season
Drai 8.5mill/year
Matthews 11.63/year
You know thats what people are talking about, its in the damn thread title.
Right, but you're using Matthew's totals this season with his expected salary next season. To be fair you'd have to take into account trends for each player and then project over an entire 82 game season and you can estimate based on past performance. It's crude but what else do we have?
Looking at entire NHL careers:
Matthews 0.53G/GP and 0.98P/GP
Draisaitl 0.35G/GP, 0.89P/GP
Based on that one could say Matthews playing 82 games would be 43G, 80P player vs Draisaitl playing 82 games at 29G, 73P. These projected numbers seem to fall in line with what both players have been producing over their entire careers except Draisaitl is having a great season this year and it could be the new norm or it could be a fluke year. Matthews could also play a full 82 games and be nowhere near those numbers but I just don't understand how people are saying that Draisatil is already better than Matthews given contracts when these numbers show the opposite
He wouldn't even crack PPG on a Mike Babcock coached team.
Your boy Barzal is already finding out the hard way what it's like playing for a coach that forces you to not sacrifice defense for offense. You were wrong about that one and you're wrong about this one
Sidney the Kidney
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Why would you use entire career numbers for Draisaitl? You're intentionally handicapping him by including his 9 points in 37 games rookie season, where it was clear he wasn't ready for the NHL at that point. Even including his 51 point second year is a bit questionable given the fact he's shown he's taken his game to another level since then.
If you want to "average out" what you can expect from Draisaitl next year, it would be more accurate to focus on his past three seasons -- 77, 70 and 99 points -- as they're the most reflective of what he's likely to be during his prime years. Doing the math, his average is 1.04 PPG (246 points in 236 games), or 85 points over a full 82 games.
Your including his rookie totals completely fails to account for the fact Draisaitl isn't that player anymore. It would be like trying to predict what Nikita Kucherov will score next year and using his 18 point rookie season as part of the calculations.
The Winter Soldier
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He wouldn't even crack PPG on a Mike Babcock coached team.
Your boy Barzal is already finding out the hard way what it's like playing for a coach that forces you to not sacrifice defense for offense. You were wrong about that one and you're wrong about this one
You don't think it's easier to score on a run and gun Babcock coached team that is far deeper offensively than the Oilers are this season?
Producing individual points on the the 2nd highest scoring team in the NHL is easier than producing points on the 20th.
And what does Barzal have to do with the discussion? Do you know the topic of this thread?
The Winter Soldier
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100% false. Minutes, offensive usage, and linemates have far more to do with offensive numbers than what your bottom-6 is scoring. No point in continuing the discussion until you admit this falsehood.
The Winter Soldier
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Other than McDavid and RNH. Who does Draisaitl have to play with that is as deep and as talented as Matthews has to play with?
I don't expect you to answer, because you would rather avoid this narrative of Draisaitl is in a better position to produce.
Further could you explain how Draisaitl's GA per 60 stats are much better than Matthews who is 8th worst in the NHL at 5 v 5 at a large of enough sample size of 600 TOI mins when the Leafs are better GA than the Oilers, and Andersen is a better goalie than whomever The Oilers have had in this year at goal.
That's actually exactly what I'm trying to key in on. How exactly did you interpret my post? I said to look at his minutes, linemates (you just said McDavid, who's 100x better than any linemate of Matthews, so you low-key admitted one), and offensive usage. The rest of your post just veered off in a completely different direction.
What. Drai won this... I mean I'd take Drai over Matthews on the Sens purely based on contract length. If I'm mid pack or above I'm definitely taking Matthew's. Of course the one year hes stacked with McDavid hes hitting these points.
You guys are actually suggesting if Matthews played with McDavid he wouldn't be hitting the same as Drai? Guys come on. Ridiculous
You guys are actually suggesting if Matthews played with McDavid he wouldn't be hitting the same as Drai? Guys come on. Ridiculous
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The Winter Soldier
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I just find it amazing someone would say it is easier to accumulate individual points on a less talented offensive team than on a more talented offensive team that is currently 2nd in the NHL in scoring.
You just continue to amaze us with your logic or lack of it.
Let's move on to defensive metrics then. Do you have an explanation on why Matthews is 8th worst for GA60 in the NHL and Draisaitl is 71st in GA60 currently? What does this suggest to you?
Hunter368
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General comment, deeper the team the more offence all lines should be able to produce bc it’s much harder to defend vs a team with 3 or 4 real lines.
Drai has some huge seasons under his belt now wheresas Matthews is still being rated on potential.
If all goes well Matthews may one day reach Drai’s level but under a far worse contract.
I don’t see how you don’t take Drai here even though Matthews plays the more important position.
If all goes well Matthews may one day reach Drai’s level but under a far worse contract.
I don’t see how you don’t take Drai here even though Matthews plays the more important position.
I feel like a broken record here brother, I keep referencing minutes, linemates and offensive usage as the main factors of offensive production and I keep trying to get sucked into this discussion about a more vague, unspecific argument when none of I posted first is getting addressed.
I'll be more than happy to have a discussion about production on lesser teams as soon as my points are addressed first.
The Winter Soldier
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Matthews has potential to be better, but he has had a down year defensively this year. The underlying stats suggest he has put up points 5 v 5 this year at the expense of his defensive play. Just Saturday the game in OT against the Rangers he was just gliding to the bench on a line change where Strome came in on a 2 on 1 to score the OT winner. He didn't get charged with a minus there, but the line change was the cause of the goal. His attention to defence has not been as good as it was in his previous 2 seasons. But with a new contract, the old standards are now met with higher standards. When you consider he only signed for 5 years at 11.634M. His contract is probably the highest in the NHL in relation to McDavid signing for 8 years. Those 3 less years make his contract, an outlier to other comparables.
The Winter Soldier
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Let's just face it. You don't have a point. Otherwise you would address the GA 60 or how it is supposedly easier to score on a 20th GF team to the 2nd best scoring team in the NHL. Are you claiming the Oilers are a better offensive team than the Leafs now? That would be a first here that you have claimed another team is better than the Leafs at anything.
If I don't have a point, how exactly do you interpret my points about offensive usage, linemates and minutes? Instead you veer off into a completely different argument. Pretty telling if you ask me.
The Winter Soldier
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You don't want to address GA60 or that Matthews plays on a far more talented offensive team. Again the facts Toronto is #2 in GF, The Oilers are #20 in the NHL. Alright. But you want to talk teammates. OK. Matthews is playing sheltered behind Tavares and Marner this year. Who is sheltering Draisaitl this year? I seem to recall this being a major point in your belittling another young center's production last year. Got an answer?
Golden_Jet
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How does it make sense to exclude his rookie season but include his highest season? I get that he is not the same player he was in his rookie year but you have no way of knowing if this year is what his new normal is or if it's a fluke. So if you want to exclude his rookie year then exclude his career year and there you go.
All I was trying to say is that people are still using Mattthew's current point totals with his salary of next year to give the title to Draisaitl. It's safe to assume that over an 82 GP, Matthews would have similar point totals as Drai but a much higher goal total which some people think is more important especially at 5v5.
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