Draisaitl @ 8.5/8yrs vrs Matthews @ 11.63/5yrs

[Sidney the Kidney]

How does it make sense to exclude his rookie season but include his highest season? I get that he is not the same player he was in his rookie year but you have no way of knowing if this year is what his new normal is or if it's a fluke. So if you want to exclude his rookie year then exclude his career year and there you go.

Because he's closer to his "career year" than his rookie season. If the object of the exercise is to "predict what he'll produce next year", which seems the most logical? That he'll produce somewhere close to this year, or that he'll produce somewhere close to his rookie season?

So if you're trying to project/predict what Draisaitl will produce next season, why would you include what he did as a 9 point rookie in your calculations unless you believe that's a viable option for what he'll play like?

Again, if this was a "what do you think Kucherov will produce next year", would anyone in their right mind use his 18 point rookie season as part of the calculation? Or would they focus on what Kucherov has produced over the past 3 seasons as they most closely represent the type of player he currently is? So why would Draisaitl be any different?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

All I was trying to say is that people are still using Mattthew's current point totals with his salary of next year to give the title to Draisaitl. It's safe to assume that over an 82 GP, Matthews would have similar point totals as Drai but a much higher goal total which some people think is more important especially at 5v5.

How is that safe to assume? Matthews has never outscored Draisaitl. Draisaitl is 2nd in the league in goals and 4th in points, it's not at all safe to assume Matthews will reach that level.

 

[razkaz]

Because he's closer to his "career year" than his rookie season. If the object of the exercise is to "predict what he'll produce next year", which seems the most logical? That he'll produce somewhere close to this year, or that he'll produce somewhere close to his rookie season?

So if you're trying to project/predict what Draisaitl will produce next season, why would you include what he did as a 9 point rookie in your calculations unless you believe that's a viable option for what he'll play like?

Again, if this was a "what do you think Kucherov will produce next year", would anyone in their right mind use his 18 point rookie season as part of the calculation? Or would they focus on what Kucherov has produced over the past 3 seasons as they most closely represent the type of player he currently is? So why would Draisaitl be any different?

That's a loaded question because as everyone has pointed out before, progression may not be linear. Look at Barzal, should his rookie season not count or count for his totals? Do we count it because he had a ton of points or do we dismiss it because it's his rookie year and we'll do that for everyone. Whether or not you like it Draisaitl played nearly half the season and for the remainder of his NHL career his rookie season will be taken into account when discussing P/GP over a career, no one will exclude it in their calculations. Again, if you want to believe that he is closer to this year in terms of points and goals compared to his previous 3 years then good for you, that's your opinion but who knows if that's his new norm or a fluke year and that remains to be seen. If I was a betting man, I'd disregard a jump if 60% in goal scoring as chance but it's not worng either way.

Not sure why you're using 3 seasons as the cutoff, is there some kind of formula to come up with this or are you using your own arbitrary cutoff? I'm genuinely asking.

How is that safe to assume? Matthews has never outscored Draisaitl. Draisaitl is 2nd in the league in goals and 4th in points, it's not at all safe to assume Matthews will reach that level.

Matthews is a consistent 35+ goal scorer 3 years in a row with less than 82 games played, Draisaitl has for the first time in his career scored more than 30 this year. Like I said, Matthews is a better goal scorer.

 

[McFlyingV]

That's a loaded question because as everyone has pointed out before, progression may not be linear. Look at Barzal, should his rookie season not count or count for his totals? Do we count it because he had a ton of points or do we dismiss it because it's his rookie year and we'll do that for everyone. Whether or not you like it Draisaitl played nearly half the season and for the remainder of his NHL career his rookie season will be taken into account when discussing P/GP over a career, no one will exclude it in their calculations. Again, if you want to believe that he is closer to this year in terms of points and goals compared to his previous 3 years then good for you, that's your opinion but who knows if that's his new norm or a fluke year and that remains to be seen. If I was a betting man, I'd disregard a jump if 60% in goal scoring as chance but it's not worng either way.

Not sure why you're using 3 seasons as the cutoff, is there some kind of formula to come up with this or are you using your own arbitrary cutoff? I'm genuinely asking.


Matthews is a consistent 35+ goal scorer 3 years in a row with less than 82 games played, Draisaitl has for the first time in his career scored more than 30 this year. Like I said, Matthews is a better goal scorer.

You're probably right that Matthews is a better goal scorer, but by how much I'm not sure. Draisaitl is obviously inflated by his shooting % this year, but his shot totals are up and his one-timer has continued to improve every season. I think it's far more likely than not that we see Draisaitl score 30+ goals every year if he's healthy. Even if you adjusted his shooting % to 16% he'd be on pace for 36 goals this season.

And for the record Draisaitl may not replicate a 100 point season that he's about to hit, but you have not been paying attention if you don't think he has improved significantly over where he was at the past 2 seasons. He is putting up dominant performances with consistency, and that consistency was the only thing preventing him from doing this in the past.

 

[OilCanada92]

Could you imagine Matthews as a winger for McDavid he’d be scoring 55-60 goals

More imaginary points for a Leafs player. Cool.


And McDavid would most likely have fewer goals.

 

[McFlyingV]

More imaginary points for a Leafs player. Cool.


And McDavid would most likely have fewer goals.

Of course he would. Draisaitl is a superior playmaker to Matthews.

 

[WesMcCauley]

Another flawed post. True production is PPG. Knocking Matthews for injuries is fair, but the 70 point is a lazy argument.

When has drai ever been “the man” on his line and been productive? He’s only produced when someone better then him was on his line i.e Taylor Hall and McDavid. When he’s the best player on his line he doesn’t produce, simple as that.

I agree that an important stat for true production is PPG. But its also a little stupid to involve Draisaitls 37 games rookie season where he scored 9 points and to an extent his 2nd season in 15/16 when he scored 52p in 71 games because of the huge step he has taken since then.

He has consistently now produced at a top rate and was 0,92 ppg the last two seasons prior to this season and now he is very likely a 100+ point and almost 50 goal player this season. His 9 point rookie season is completely irrelevant right now when he has taken the step he has, so career PPG can also be very misleading when you compare players after those first couple seasons.

Matthews is younger so he has that on his side but if they even out at as similiar players its a little stupid calling Matthews better now because he was better in his first NHL seasons when players develop so differently.

Yes Drai plays a lot with McDavid but he is still scoring at that rate which you dont do unless you are a fantastic player. Matthews is surrounded by one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL so its not like he has it much worse...

I think Matthews is the better player and would probably take him but that contract is awful considering its only 5 years long compared to Drai who signed for 8 years and a lot less money. I would understand if some people value that cap space and also that to a lot of people the gap between the two right now is very slim if there is a gap at all.

Btw Drai did produce great numbers in the playoffs in 16/17 when he played a lot on his own line without McDavid. One of the problems is that they have so horrible depth that unless Drai, McDavid and RNH play together they are on a line with one or two borderline NHLers...
Thats a huge difference from playing with the players Matthews plays with and on a team with great offensive depth.

 

[DFF]

Matthews....he doesnt need McDavid to score

If Drai is really good, the Oilers would have 2 scoring lines

 

[A91]

Matthews....he doesnt need McDavid to score

If Drai is really good, the Oilers would have 2 scoring lines

RNH - McDavid - Kassian
Rieder - Matthews - Chiasson

How many points/goals is Matthews getting?

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau/Johnsson - Draisaitl - Kapanen/Nylander

How many points/goals is Draisaitl getting?

 

[DFF]

RNH - McDavid - Kassian
Rieder - Matthews - Chiasson

How many points/goals is Matthews getting?

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau/Johnsson - Draisaitl - Kapanen/Nylander

How many points/goals is Draisaitl getting?

Yeah the Oilers suck...I get the point.

 

[razkaz]

You're probably right that Matthews is a better goal scorer, but by how much I'm not sure. Draisaitl is obviously inflated by his shooting % this year, but his shot totals are up and his one-timer has continued to improve every season. I think it's far more likely than not that we see Draisaitl score 30+ goals every year if he's healthy. Even if you adjusted his shooting % to 16% he'd be on pace for 36 goals this season.

And for the record Draisaitl may not replicate a 100 point season that he's about to hit, but you have not been paying attention if you don't think he has improved significantly over where he was at the past 2 seasons. He is putting up dominant performances with consistency, and that consistency was the only thing preventing him from doing this in the past.

Not knocking Draisaitl for what he’s doing this year but you just nailed it by talking about consistency. Matthews has been doing well considering his production based on games played. He could very well end up the same as Draisaitl and produce over an 82 game season or bust.

My main issue is people dismissing Matthews by using his numbers from this year and using his salary next year to say he’s not worth his contract already

 

[Pyrophorus]

Of course he would. Draisaitl is a superior playmaker to Matthews.

..and they go nowhere with it.

 

[WillTheThrill]

What. Drai won this... I mean I'd take Drai over Matthews on the Sens purely based on contract length. If I'm mid pack or above I'm definitely taking Matthew's. Of course the one year hes stacked with McDavid hes hitting these points.

You guys are actually suggesting if Matthews played with McDavid he wouldn't be hitting the same as Drai? Guys come on. Ridiculous

Haha yup I’d love to see what Matthews could do with the same time Drai has had with McDavid...

 

[WangMustGo]

..and they go nowhere with it.

And the leafs go golfing a whole week later, big whoop. Draisaitl is a better player and has a better contract.

 

[SullivanT]

Haha yup I’d love to see what Matthews could do with the same time Drai has had with McDavid...

Wrong thread

 

[McFlyingV]

..and they go nowhere with it.

Switch McDavid and Drai with Toronto's 2 best forwards and the Leafs are in Tampa territory.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

This is Draisaitl rather easily factoring in contracts. Not convinced Matthews' peak season even matches Draisaitl statistically this season to be honest.

Haha yup I’d love to see what Matthews could do with the same time Drai has had with McDavid...

One thing is for sure, McDavid would be carrying Matthews a hell of a lot more than some Leafs fans ignorantly believe he carries Draisaitl. Matthews is a vastly inferior playmaker and his long stretches of poor production/uninterested play would ensure McDavid having to elevate yet another linemate.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

That's a loaded question because as everyone has pointed out before, progression may not be linear. Look at Barzal, should his rookie season not count or count for his totals? Do we count it because he had a ton of points or do we dismiss it because it's his rookie year and we'll do that for everyone. Whether or not you like it Draisaitl played nearly half the season and for the remainder of his NHL career his rookie season will be taken into account when discussing P/GP over a career, no one will exclude it in their calculations. Again, if you want to believe that he is closer to this year in terms of points and goals compared to his previous 3 years then good for you, that's your opinion but who knows if that's his new norm or a fluke year and that remains to be seen. If I was a betting man, I'd disregard a jump if 60% in goal scoring as chance but it's not worng either way.

You're right that progression isn't linear. But one can make an educated guess that if a player produces 77 points, 70 points, and 100+ points, then chances are that's roughly the ballpark the player will produce at. Unless he suffers some major injury, it seems rather unlikely that he'd produce way less than what he's produced the past three years.

Also, why does the progression not being linear only apply to Draisaitl? Can't you say the same about Matthews, that maybe he won't produce as much next year because progression isn't linear? Why is it assumed that Matthews will just keep on getting better each year, but Draisaitl's going to see his production plummet?

Not sure why you're using 3 seasons as the cutoff, is there some kind of formula to come up with this or are you using your own arbitrary cutoff? I'm genuinely asking.

Because typically speaking, a 3-year window best illustrates what a player is *right now*. 5 years back, the player could be very different from the player they were then, 1 year back and it doesn't take into account a fluke year.

Matthews is a consistent 35+ goal scorer 3 years in a row with less than 82 games played, Draisaitl has for the first time in his career scored more than 30 this year. Like I said, Matthews is a better goal scorer.

Matthews may very well be a better goal scorer. Not sure what that has to do with overall production, though, as Draisaitl's a better playmaker.

 

[OilCanada92]

I agree that an important stat for true production is PPG. But its also a little stupid to involve Draisaitls 37 games rookie season where he scored 9 points and to an extent his 2nd season in 15/16 when he scored 52p in 71 games because of the huge step he has taken since then.

He has consistently now produced at a top rate and was 0,92 ppg the last two seasons prior to this season and now he is very likely a 100+ point and almost 50 goal player this season. His 9 point rookie season is completely irrelevant right now when he has taken the step he has, so career PPG can also be very misleading when you compare players after those first couple seasons.

Matthews is younger so he has that on his side but if they even out at as similiar players its a little stupid calling Matthews better now because he was better in his first NHL seasons when players develop so differently.

Yes Drai plays a lot with McDavid but he is still scoring at that rate which you dont do unless you are a fantastic player. Matthews is surrounded by one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL so its not like he has it much worse...

I think Matthews is the better player and would probably take him but that contract is awful considering its only 5 years long compared to Drai who signed for 8 years and a lot less money. I would understand if some people value that cap space and also that to a lot of people the gap between the two right now is very slim if there is a gap at all.

Btw Drai did produce great numbers in the playoffs in 16/17 when he played a lot on his own line without McDavid. One of the problems is that they have so horrible depth that unless Drai, McDavid and RNH play together they are on a line with one or two borderline NHLers...
Thats a huge difference from playing with the players Matthews plays with and on a team with great offensive depth.

PPG is a very misleading stat in Matthews case if you want to judge him on the average night. He had 16 points in the first 7 games and has been under a point per game in his last 56 games. It's a pretty decent sample size. Like I've said before, if 2 good weeks was enough for Toronto to declare him the best player in the world back in early October, 5 months of being under a point per game should cement him in their eyes as not even being a top 20 player.

If the season ended today, Leafs fans would be saying Matthews produced at a 92 point pace, but he didn't play like a "92 point player" from game 8-63. He was a 75-80 point player on the average night. This season, that's not very special at all.

Hes a good goal scorer who is fun to watch. That's why I say he's currently this eras Rick Nash. Leafs fans don't like it but that's the reality. He doesn't put up big point totals but he scores a lot of goals, and he got paid a lot more than he was worth because he scored a lot early in his career when he walked into the league with a grown man's body.

 

[Pyrophorus]

And the leafs go golfing a whole week later, big whoop. Draisaitl is a better player and has a better contract.

We've never gone a week. A week and half is more correct.
If it goes that long, you never know.

 

[razkaz]

You're right that progression isn't linear. But one can make an educated guess that if a player produces 77 points, 70 points, and 100+ points, then chances are that's roughly the ballpark the player will produce at. Unless he suffers some major injury, it seems rather unlikely that he'd produce way less than what he's produced the past three years.

Also, why does the progression not being linear only apply to Draisaitl? Can't you say the same about Matthews, that maybe he won't produce as much next year because progression isn't linear? Why is it assumed that Matthews will just keep on getting better each year, but Draisaitl's going to see his production plummet?



Because typically speaking, a 3-year window best illustrates what a player is *right now*. 5 years back, the player could be very different from the player they were then, 1 year back and it doesn't take into account a fluke year.



Matthews may very well be a better goal scorer. Not sure what that has to do with overall production, though, as Draisaitl's a better playmaker.

I was quoting another poster with the Matthews goal scoring stat.

Anyways I just find it funny how people are defending Draisatl and his contract stating lack of consistency as why he is worth it are and in the same tone knock Matthews for the same thing.

Progression may not be linear but it took Draisaitl 5 years to produce like he is whereas Matthews started off stronger and looks like he is already producing at a better rate yet he's not worth next years contract?

 

[Mickey Marner]

Haha yup I’d love to see what Matthews could do with the same time Drai has had with McDavid...

So far this season at 5v5.

Draisaitl with McDavid, 3.50 P/60, which would be 1st in NHL, ahead of Kucherov.

Draisaitl without McDavid, 1.43 P/60, T-236th in NHL with Jordan Eberle and Leo Komorov.

Crazy.

 

[stopclickbait]

So far this season at 5v5.

Draisaitl with McDavid, 3.50 P/60, which would be 1st in NHL, ahead of Kucherov.

Draisaitl without McDavid, 1.43 P/60, T-236th in NHL with Jordan Eberle and Leo Komorov.

Crazy.

Thanks I was always curious to see Draisaitl updated stats without Mcdavid

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

So far this season at 5v5.

Draisaitl with McDavid, 3.50 P/60, which would be 1st in NHL, ahead of Kucherov.

Draisaitl without McDavid, 1.43 P/60, T-236th in NHL with Jordan Eberle and Leo Komorov.

Crazy.

I'd love to see McDavid without Draisaitl

 

[Perfect_Drug]

So far this season at 5v5.

Draisaitl with McDavid, 3.50 P/60, which would be 1st in NHL, ahead of Kucherov.

Draisaitl without McDavid, 1.43 P/60, T-236th in NHL with Jordan Eberle and Leo Komorov.

Crazy.

Thanks I was always curious to see Draisaitl updated stats without Mcdavid

This argument is not so cut and dry.

His linemate away from McDavid is a guy who just set a record of futility for most shots with 0 goals in Reider.

The other linemates were a combination of the worst player in the NHL - Lucic, and a collection of guys that haven't have scored more than 4 goals this year.


soo... it's a tad different comparing him to Kucherov, who when away from Stamkos is playing with Point.