Speculation: Draft Pick Watch/Lottery Tracker 2019

[GermanRocket7]

Just leaving this here to discuss.

If the Ducks had the worst-case scenario to happen, which is falling down three picks after lottery and picking at #12, I sincerely hope we draft either Cole Caufield or Raphael Lavoie. Those are the two highest-end forwards after the top-11 group and even if them hitting their ceiling may be less likely than with, for example, a defenseman like Broberg - I'm willing to gamble on finally having a legit high-end forwards prospect with potential elite skills rather than drafting projects that turn out a reliable two-way middle-six forward for once.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

It's unbelievable we had a year this shitty and managed to hurt our chances at securing a franchise player. These no leverage games are meaningless. Bob Murray really f***ed everything up by not firing RC sooner at least these games could've been meaningful.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Sam Steel's emergence was 100% worth a couple of draft spots.

That could've been accomplished without losing the top 5 spot we spent much of this season in

 

[Deuce22]

That could've been accomplished without losing the top 5 spot we spent much of this season in

How, exactly? His emergence was because he scored goals and assisted on goals, which led to Duck wins.

 

[JohnnyDrama]

That could've been accomplished without losing the top 5 spot we spent much of this season in

Correct. Whenever Steel or anyone else started playing well and creating goals for the team, Bob Murray should’ve benched them immediately

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

How, exactly? His emergence was because he scored goals and assisted on goals, which led to Duck wins.

Apparently the solution was to allow him to play under the utter chaos of RC, which would have surely done wonders for his development

Emerge, but don't emerge by helping us win, you little jerk!

 

[Deuce22]

Apparently the solution was to allow him to play under the utter chaos of RC, which would have surely done wonders for his development

Emerge, but don't emerge by helping us win, you little jerk!

Reasons why firing RC mid season will be a long term positive:

-Gibson is in one piece and has his confidence back
-Steel is set to be a top six center beginning of next year
-We now know Fowler doesn't have to be used as a shut down guy, and can play his off side
-Young players got some run and were not embarrassed
-Getzlaf wasn't completely worn down
-Team culture is at least partially rehabilitated

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

So @Opak does understand it correctly, Vancouver getting one point is the difference between us finishing 8 and 9. However, IMO, even more important than the difference between 5-10 ping pong balls is...

Their opponent for tomorrow’s game, which is, of course, St. Louis, who will open the final day of the regular season exactly at 20 (97 points), which if you don’t know, means they’re right as the lowest possible standings position for the conditional first rounder to transfer (if it falls lower than 20, the Ducks will automatically receive San Jose’s #1 pick). They effectively must win that game since Carolina (have the ROW tiebreaker) is playing Philly at home and Columbus (one point back) is at Ottawa and both will be fighting for Wild Card 1 in the Eastern Conference.

But as @duxfan1101 pointed our earlier in the thread, a division championship is also on the line and that would move the Blues pick down to the 24-27 range (I think it’s 24 since the Blues would have the fewest points by far of all the division champions). They sit third in the Central (and they play first tomorrow at 1PM PST), tied with Winnipeg (who has the ROW tiebreaker) and 1 point behind Nashville. Winnipeg is in Arizona tomorrow night and Nashville hosts Minnesota. Since St. Louis holds the H2H tiebreaker over Nashville and is tied with Winnipeg in points, St. Louis could win the Central Division title with a win against Vancouver and Winnipeg and Nashville BOTH losing in any fashion. If you want my personal thoughts on the matter, I would prefer St. Louis finishing 2nd in the division and 21 overall, as it gives them a cushion if one of the teams behind them gets to the Conference Finals and knocks them down a peg (*cough* Vegas *cough*).

As for San Jose, it’s pretty straightforward at this point: lose in regulation at home to Colorado and then get leapfrogged by as many teams who can pass them in the standings as possible so that their pick is as low as possible before the playoffs start.

...wow. I haven't been following this at all, I didn't realize our other first rounder needed a Will Hunting level intellect to quantify. So the upshot is, we're either getting the Sharks or the Blues' pick, and in no event will it be lower than 20?

 

[Deuce22]

...wow. I haven't been following this at all, I didn't realize our other first rounder needed a Will Hunting level intellect to quantify. So the upshot is, we're either getting the Sharks or the Blues' pick, and in no event will it be lower than 20?

Silly me, I just figured I'd wait until after the draft lottery and playoffs to find out where we will be drafting.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Reasons why firing RC mid season will be a long term positive:

-Gibson is in one piece and has his confidence back
-Steel is set to be a top six center beginning of next year
-We now know Fowler doesn't have to be used as a shut down guy, and can play his off side
-Young players got some run and were not embarrassed
-Getzlaf wasn't completely worn down
-Team culture is at least partially rehabilitated

All great points. Steel, over the last like 3 weeks, has taken a dozen strides in his development. He controls pace and play and can identify options and execute on passes in a very Getz-y way. He looks like a guy who could carry a line in a way Ricky hasn't managed and probably never will at this point.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Silly me, I just figured I'd wait until after the draft lottery and playoffs to find out where we will be drafting.

It's kind of hilarious that it ended up being so complex and opaque.

 

[KyleJRM]

That could've been accomplished without losing the top 5 spot we spent much of this season in

Theoretically, sure, but it's not worth crying about some impossibly improbable needle-threading where our players play better *and* we lose enough to stay in the top 5.

 

[dracom]

It's unbelievable we had a year this ****ty and managed to hurt our chances at securing a franchise player. These no leverage games are meaningless. Bob Murray really ****ed everything up by not firing RC sooner at least these games could've been meaningful.

We were never in a spot for a "franchise" player (especially considering there isn't an actual franchise type player in this draft). Kings and Ottawa were always worse than us, we were never going to be drafting in the top 2 unless it's due to the lottery.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

It's unbelievable we had a year this ****ty and managed to hurt our chances at securing a franchise player. These no leverage games are meaningless. Bob Murray really ****ed everything up by not firing RC sooner at least these games could've been meaningful.

There is no guaranteed franchise player in this draft. We'll be picking in the range where you can get a player with the potential to become one.

The growth and positive signs we've seen from young players starting to have success at this level is so much more important for this franchise than picking a few spots higher.

 

[Mortal Wombat]

...wow. I haven't been following this at all, I didn't realize our other first rounder needed a Will Hunting level intellect to quantify. So the upshot is, we're either getting the Sharks or the Blues' pick, and in no event will it be lower than 20?

If the Sharks lose in regulation and all of Penguins, Predators and Jets leapfrog them AND at least three teams below the Sharks make the conference finals (and the Sharks don't), we could end up with a pick better than the 20th. But yeah, I wouldn't count on that happening.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

There is no guaranteed franchise player in this draft. We'll be picking in the range where you can get a player with the potential to become one.

The growth and positive signs we've seen from young players starting to have success at this level is so much more important for this franchise than picking a few spots higher.

Vancouver found one with Petterssen with a top 5 pick in 2017. People thought only Patrick & Hischier had the chance to become one from the 2017 draft, the same could be true for the 2019 draft with one of the top 6 picks turning out to be great. Can even get a great player at 6th overall: Matthew Tkachuk in 2016 going 6th overall. At 8th to 10th overall the chances decrease even more that a few extra wins at the end of the season is a total complete waste if they miss out on the next Petterssen & Tkachuk.

 

[McDonald19]

We were never in a spot for a "franchise" player (especially considering there isn't an actual franchise type player in this draft). Kings and Ottawa were always worse than us, we were never going to be drafting in the top 2 unless it's due to the lottery.

That’s false. The Ducks were last in the conference at one point.

 

[Masch78]

It's unbelievable we had a year this ****ty and managed to hurt our chances at securing a franchise player. These no leverage games are meaningless. Bob Murray really ****ed everything up by not firing RC sooner at least these games could've been meaningful.

There seem to be a lot of franchise players lately.

 

[McDonald19]

Unlikely the players available at 9th help the NHL team in the next 3-4 seasons.

 

[Masch78]

Vancouver found one with Petterssen with a top 5 pick in 2017. People thought only Patrick & Hischier had the chance to become one from the 2017 draft,

Hischier and Patrick were never considered as franchise players if I remember correctly. But you're absolutely right.

 

[Deuce22]

Unlikely the players available at 9th help the NHL team in the next 3-4 seasons.

You have advance knowledge of how the lottery turned out?

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

Silly me, I just figured I'd wait until after the draft lottery and playoffs to find out where we will be drafting.

...yeah, I will admit I kind of got carried away over the last the couple weeks with the daily standings updates for our pick. I'm a geek for the mathematical probability aspect, what can I say?

As for the Blues pick, I don't think we would have been checking in as much if it weren't a conditional pick with very specific positioning factors.

 

[AngelDuck]

We all want the same thing at the end of the day. We have different philosophies on how to get there is all.

One thing we can all agree on is next year will be better than this one by a significant margin. There are certain teams that can’t say that (one example being the team we played last night).

 

[TheGoodShepard1]

...wow. I haven't been following this at all, I didn't realize our other first rounder needed a Will Hunting level intellect to quantify. So the upshot is, we're either getting the Sharks or the Blues' pick, and in no event will it be lower than 20?

If the Sharks lose in regulation and all of Penguins, Predators and Jets leapfrog them AND at least three teams below the Sharks make the conference finals (and the Sharks don't), we could end up with a pick better than the 20th. But yeah, I wouldn't count on that happening.

@Mortal Wombat pretty much sums it up with the long shot scenario (the Sharks pick is ours no matter what happens). But basically, unless God intervenes and brings chaos to the NHL playoffs, your much less wordy version of the conditions is correct.

 

[Hey234]

I think it has been shown again and again by posts in this thread that draft position not guarantee "franchise" players. Yes, a higher draft position will increase the odds of you getting the player you want, but that decision of the player varies wildly from team to team after the top 2 or 3 picks. Plenty of players picked between 4-8 have done very little in the past. The big question is: do we trust the people making the selection and I think, undoubtedly, you have to with Madden's track record.

The Ducks, without a real coach, played well to end the year and the young players really stepped up. That is a win in my books. The player they select this year most likely won't be the savior of next season or possibly the next. A high pick is awesome and the Ducks playing better is awesome. I'm happy with the way the season ended with all signs pointing up for the Ducks