Speculation: Don’t trade Gaudreau

[GumbyCan2]

It’s really arguable what is secondary at this point.

More often than not the rumours recently are centred around poor playoff performance and a shake up of the core. Although they might speculate that he would leave after his contract anyways, that’s more often than not presented as a secondary support rather. Trelivings impatience/lack of faith (whatever you want to call it) seems to be front and centre now.

Not to be cruel to any one person, per se. But I guess I will be, am, so...here goes.
It is maybe "just about to time, finally" split up/ or move on from the top-line, as it us, if Tre is a little "faith-lacking" in this core. Their contracts were decent, are by yesterdays $ #'s for "lesser talents", Covid effect has them on higher end salaries, again.. But the "ticker" is almost hitting "tocked zone" with no decent playoff run to show. Before backed in a corner, desperation devaluing returns, he should seriously put it out there, and listen to all returns on both Johnny and Money. And Gio, and Hanifin, and ...

 

[HugginThePost]

2018-19 he had 99 points, it was after the 2019 all-star game that his production fell a bit.

Not correct, he was pacing with McDavid and the other top guys until the ASB, after that his performance dipped, considerably.

It's when the talk of him and Mony having a falling out started. They've both sucked since that break.

 

[FerklundCGY]

Not correct, he was pacing with McDavid and the other top guys until the ASB, after that his performance dipped, considerably.

It's when the talk of him and Mony having a falling out started. They've both sucked since that break.

Pretty sure you just confirmed exactly what he was saying.

Gaudreau's play didn't dip after the 2018 All-Star break as you said.

It dipped last year after the 2019 All-Star break.

 

[HugginThePost]

Pretty sure you just confirmed exactly what he was saying.

Gaudreau's play didn't dip after the 2018 All-Star break as you said.

It dipped last year after the 2019 All-Star break.

Balls!!

Yes, I see where I was going wrong. Thinking of the Season Year vs the All Star Game Year, my bad.

Buuuuuuutttttttt......interstingly enough his drop off was almost identical the previous year as well.

2018

Pre-ASB = 1.16ppg
Post-ASB = 0.84ppg

2019

Pre-ASB = 1.43ppg
Post-ASB = 0.83ppg

So, what's the story?

Does he get worn down? Injuries? Disinterest? Teams step up after the ASB? Does defense become a premium after the ASB?

Whatever it is, it's a very telling trend. One that needs to be reversed. He should be ramping up his game, not letting it fizzle out.

 

[Dack]

Balls!!

Yes, I see where I was going wrong. Thinking of the Season Year vs the All Star Game Year, my bad.

Buuuuuuutttttttt......interstingly enough his drop off was almost identical the previous year as well.

2018

Pre-ASB = 1.16ppg
Post-ASB = 0.84ppg

2019

Pre-ASB = 1.43ppg
Post-ASB = 0.83ppg

So, what's the story?

Does he get worn down? Injuries? Disinterest? Teams step up after the ASB? Does defense become a premium after the ASB?

Whatever it is, it's a very telling trend. One that needs to be reversed. He should be ramping up his game, not letting it fizzle out.

This is probably teams clamping down and variance, looking at it it reminds me of "He can't score on the road", from what I remember of his 1st and 3rd season he hated up after the ASB.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I don't think there's much reason to move on from Gaudreau.
Not unless he's part of the package that nets us a legit 1C or the centrepiece in top centre in the making kind of thing.

I sound like a broken record, like, for the past 5 years... but man... If Calgary could get that centre. The issue with Gaudreau is that he plays small, even during the playoffs. And that's fine. You can have guys who play small because the team around them play big.

The problem is his line, when he plays small, the rest of the line is just kind of there. I love Lindy, he's our most rounded forward... but he didn't have a great playoffs. Monahan is what is he. I've loved the improvement on both ends of the ice... but in a perfect world, he's a guy you slot in as your #2C, and just makes life miserable on people that there's a 20-25 goal guy sitting on the second line, who can bite you at any time.

If Gaudreau had someone down the middle on his line that made people have to think/worry about them; we'd likely be playing the Golden Knights right now... and very likely would be a top team in the league in general.

I think if you're Brad Treliving, your time is running thin. You've had many years to figure this team out, and the pieces are there... but not in the right way. You have to find a centre somewhere. I keep mentioning it, but if there's even a remote possibility of a guy like Eichel wanting to leave town, you roll out the red carpet and make it happen. Having Eichel/Gaudreau on your top line makes you just about the worst team in the NHL to deal with. You can't focus on one guy, because the other guy will just kill you. Right now if you focus on Gaudreau... well... Monahan isn't doing anything. Lindholm can maybe do something, but other times not because he's covering the entire defensive side of that line's responsibilities.

But don’t you think if Brad had that chance at selling the farm for Eichel he would’ve done that? The issue is that those centers aren’t available and you aren’t just gonna ‘find one’. You either draft one or (much less likely) you trade for a young C that has potential and is yet to break out like Zibanejad. We NEED to build through the draft or were always gonna be caught in a middling state. I don’t want to move Gaudreau because I know he’s our best offensive player, but we neeeed a re-tool. We need top-10 picks. I know it’s risky to move assets for picks but how else are we gonna find our Petterson? Barzal? Couturier? Dach? Heiskanen? Hughes? Makar? We need to build through the draft, it’s the only way. And if we can move Gaudreau or Monahan for top-10 picks or high-level young prospects we neeeed to consider it. If it means rebuilding for a season or two so be it, give me a top-5 pick. we aren’t winning with this core. Watching Dallas and Colorado it’s so obvious we cut the RE-build short too early and we need those one or two more elite young players

 

[Deen]

But don’t you think if Brad had that chance at selling the farm for Eichel he would’ve done that? The issue is that those centers aren’t available and you aren’t just gonna ‘find one’. You either draft one or (much less likely) you trade for a young C that has potential and is yet to break out like Zibanejad. We NEED to build through the draft or were always gonna be caught in a middling state. I don’t want to move Gaudreau because I know he’s our best offensive player, but we neeeed a re-tool. We need top-10 picks. I know it’s risky to move assets for picks but how else are we gonna find our Petterson? Barzal? Couturier? Dach? Heiskanen? Hughes? Makar? We need to build through the draft, it’s the only way. And if we can move Gaudreau or Monahan for top-10 picks or high-level young prospects we neeeed to consider it. If it means rebuilding for a season or two so be it, give me a top-5 pick. we aren’t winning with this core. Watching Dallas and Colorado it’s so obvious we cut the RE-build short too early and we need those one or two more elite young players

Agree with this. Go through the draft.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

But don’t you think if Brad had that chance at selling the farm for Eichel he would’ve done that? The issue is that those centers aren’t available and you aren’t just gonna ‘find one’. You either draft one or (much less likely) you trade for a young C that has potential and is yet to break out like Zibanejad. We NEED to build through the draft or were always gonna be caught in a middling state. I don’t want to move Gaudreau because I know he’s our best offensive player, but we neeeed a re-tool. We need top-10 picks. I know it’s risky to move assets for picks but how else are we gonna find our Petterson? Barzal? Couturier? Dach? Heiskanen? Hughes? Makar? We need to build through the draft, it’s the only way. And if we can move Gaudreau or Monahan for top-10 picks or high-level young prospects we neeeed to consider it. If it means rebuilding for a season or two so be it, give me a top-5 pick. we aren’t winning with this core. Watching Dallas and Colorado it’s so obvious we cut the RE-build short too early and we need those one or two more elite young players

Did teams like Vegas, Boston or St. Louis have top picks? For all your examples, there’s also the Oilers, Florida, NJ, Buffalo and others that have gotten top picks and are perennial bottom feeders. If there was a clear answer to win, every team would be doing it.

I would only trade Gaudreau for a top 3 pick in this draft and no team is going to do that.

 

[Volica]

Did teams like Vegas, Boston or St. Louis have top picks? For all your examples, there’s also the Oilers, Florida, NJ, Buffalo and others that have gotten top picks and are perennial bottom feeders. If there was a clear answer to win, every team would be doing it.

I would only trade Gaudreau for a top 3 pick in this draft and no team is going to do that.

ding ding ding.

This build through the draft is great, something I firmly believe in as well... But it takes luck too. Who would have pegged taking centres at 4 and 6 would have amounted to 0 elite centres?

At this time Flames have too good of a team core to tank. The only real option is moving someone for a top pick (which NEVER happens) or trying to find your O’Reilly’s, etc.

I think Calgary is closer to doing that than they are another rebuild.

 

[Body Checker]

Add to the core? Retool? Trade one core guy and add Hall? Full rebuild?

All valid points by all but it all comes down to waiting out our cap issues as Lucic, Gio, Backs and Ryan account for $20 million. Just think about that; four fading veterans take up one quarter of our cap space. Argue all you want about their positive points but none of the four are core guys moving forward.

At this point I think the Flames are stuck with moving Gaudreau for young players that can step in (Zacha/Boqvist) and a top 20 pick and hope to hit a couple of home runs in the middle of the draft. No cap space to add Hall and also try to address the gaps on defence and finding a #1 goalie.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Did teams like Vegas, Boston or St. Louis have top picks? For all your examples, there’s also the Oilers, Florida, NJ, Buffalo and others that have gotten top picks and are perennial bottom feeders. If there was a clear answer to win, every team would be doing it.

I would only trade Gaudreau for a top 3 pick in this draft and no team is going to do that.

Vegas isn’t comparable to any team because they built through an expansion draft, Boston absolutely did build through the draft and St Louis also drafted almost all of their elite d core, and then they found the O’Reilly deal which was truly a once-in-a-decade trade for a legit prime 1C. If that deal is out there we need to pursue it but I don’t see a quantity for quality trade for a 1C happening anytime soon. I’m not saying we need top-3 picks, but our core right now clearly isn’t good enough and we need a better stable of young elite players to compete with the Colorado’s and Vegas’s. And how do we get those players? Only through the draft. Sure you can use New Jersey and Edmonton Buffalo and a Florida of examples of building through the draft that don’t work, as well as plenty of examples where building through the draft resulted in an amazing core (Colorado, Carolina, Vancouver, Tampa). But find recent elite teams who didn’t draft a legit star 1C or 1D? Sure building through the draft is risky and may take years to work out, but refusing to build through the draft and you end up like Calgary circa 2005-2012, Minnesota, Arizona, Montreal before shipping paccioretty and adding Suzuki and Kotkaniemki. And Vegas is a unique example, if we had the option I’d almost rather start over like Vegas and build an entire team of undervalued players with play styles that fit together

 

[RasmusAndersson]

ding ding ding.

This build through the draft is great, something I firmly believe in as well... But it takes luck too. Who would have pegged taking centres at 4 and 6 would have amounted to 0 elite centres?

At this time Flames have too good of a team core to tank. The only real option is moving someone for a top pick (which NEVER happens) or trying to find your O’Reilly’s, etc.

I think Calgary is closer to doing that than they are another rebuild.

So in your opinion our team is too good to tank despite the fact that we aren’t good enough to win? Sounds like an Iggy-era mindset that resulted in years of mediocrity. If it was up to you you’d rather wish upon a star another O’Reilly once in a decade trade comes around than be proactive and build a young core and then add those other top pieces as necessary when they come available.

did we expect to come away with 0 top line centers from Bennett and Monahan? No. Does that mean we should settle with them and not keep going for that 1C and commit to being mediocre unless the perfect value deal comes around? No. Lets be proactive, realize Bennett and Monahan aren’t the 1C’s we need, and get one before we stick with what clearly doesn’t work. Do you really think our core is ‘too good’ when we’re clearly a middle-of-the-pack team?

 

[Kranix]

So in your opinion our team is too good to tank despite the fact that we aren’t good enough to win? Sounds like an Iggy-era mindset that resulted in years of mediocrity. If it was up to you you’d rather wish upon a star another O’Reilly once in a decade trade comes around than be proactive and build a young core and then add those other top pieces as necessary when they come available.

did we expect to come away with 0 top line centers from Bennett and Monahan? No. Does that mean we should settle with them and not keep going for that 1C and commit to being mediocre unless the perfect value deal comes around? No. Lets be proactive, realize Bennett and Monahan aren’t the 1C’s we need, and get one before we stick with what clearly doesn’t work. Do you really think our core is ‘too good’ when we’re clearly a middle-of-the-pack team?

You think Iggy aged 28+ team shouldn't have tanked? They had maybe the best goaltender in the league, and were a contender. Darryl just went insane with his trades.
Now they have a young core. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Andersson, Valimaki(if he pans out)
What do you mean "going for that 1C?" As if Joe Thorntons are just popping out of the ground.

 

[Anglesmith]

Vegas isn’t comparable to any team because they built through an expansion draft, Boston absolutely did build through the draft and St Louis also drafted almost all of their elite d core, and then they found the O’Reilly deal which was truly a once-in-a-decade trade for a legit prime 1C. If that deal is out there we need to pursue it but I don’t see a quantity for quality trade for a 1C happening anytime soon. I’m not saying we need top-3 picks, but our core right now clearly isn’t good enough and we need a better stable of young elite players to compete with the Colorado’s and Vegas’s. And how do we get those players? Only through the draft. Sure you can use New Jersey and Edmonton Buffalo and a Florida of examples of building through the draft that don’t work, as well as plenty of examples where building through the draft resulted in an amazing core (Colorado, Carolina, Vancouver, Tampa). But find recent elite teams who didn’t draft a legit star 1C or 1D? Sure building through the draft is risky and may take years to work out, but refusing to build through the draft and you end up like Calgary circa 2005-2012, Minnesota, Arizona, Montreal before shipping paccioretty and adding Suzuki and Kotkaniemki. And Vegas is a unique example, if we had the option I’d almost rather start over like Vegas and build an entire team of undervalued players with play styles that fit together

But this team has been built through the draft though. If you want to follow the Boston or St. Louis model, you don't blow up the entire organization just because they don't follow a perfect, monotonic improvement year over year. You keep steadily trying to improve and create a better team however you can.

Too often I see people with the notion that a good rebuild involves picking a bunch of prospects, then sitting back and watching them become a champion. Expecting a team to climb steadily from a rebuild to a championship without ups and downs and hard work on the part of the GM is an unrealistic expectation. If that is the standard for not blowing up a team, then we will be in a perpetual cycle of rebuilding.

 

[Kranix]

But this team has been built through the draft though. If you want to follow the Boston or St. Louis model, you don't blow up the entire organization just because they don't follow a perfect, monotonic improvement year over year. You keep steadily trying to improve and create a better team however you can.

Too often I see people with the notion that a good rebuild involves picking a bunch of prospects, then sitting back and watching them become a champion. Expecting a team to climb steadily from a rebuild to a championship without ups and downs and hard work on the part of the GM is an unrealistic expectation. If that is the standard for not blowing up a team, then we will be in a perpetual cycle of rebuilding.

People want the storybook team of destiny Crosby Penguins scenario.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

You think Iggy aged 28+ team shouldn't have tanked? They had maybe the best goaltender in the league, and were a contender. Darryl just went insane with his trades.
Now they have a young core. Tkachuk, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Andersson, Valimaki(if he pans out)
What do you mean "going for that 1C?" As if Joe Thorntons are just popping out of the ground.

Ok we shouldn't have tanked when Iggy was 28 but still probably 2008/2009 when he was 31 and it was clear we were a borderline playoff team. After the Jokinen experiment failed (lol) when Roman Cervanka was supposed to come in and be a top-6 C.

And ya we for sure should be 'going for that 1C' instead of standing around, making marginal upgrades, and hoping that our mediocre core can somehow become contenders. I completely agree we can't just find a 1C popping out of the ground, that's why we need to continue to build through the draft. Gaudreau and Monahan are the guys to move, as well as Hanifin. Those guys have value and can bring us back the young players or high picks we need to find that true 1C or 1D. Petterson, Hughes, Barzal, Heiskanen, Makar, Parayko, Provorov, Couturier, Dach. Imagine adding someone of their calibre to our core for 2 years down the road on an ELC instead of sticking with Gaudreau and Monahan taking up 13 mil in space and being an ineffective top-line.

I love Andersson and Valimaki as much as the next fan but these guys are not top-end guys you build around (maybe Valimaki will be, but he definitely isn't even close). I completely agree that we should build around Lindholm, Tkachuk, Andersson, and Valimaki, and as much as I love these guys we still lack that elite 1C or 1D that we need to win. Sure we can look towards Vegas and say we don't need a 1C or 1D, but guys like Gaudreau and Monahan don't work in those systems where you have 4 fast and excellent two-way lines and a very fast and smart blue-line. We have many pieces of the core in place, just need to find the right one or two more players to really round out the core and take us to contender status. Gaudreau and Monahan, as they have consistently proven, aren't those guys. And we don't have the liberty to just stick with them and keep making marginal upgrades, or hoping another Joe Thornton comes around. Because like you said he won't. We need to re-tool and find the right guy through the draft, even if it means 2 or 3 more years of struggling. Tkachuk Dube Rasmus Valimaki are not even in their primes, Lindholm is still very young, and we should build around them so that in 3-5 years we can take that next step instead of staying mediocre for the next 2 years, maybe winning a round if we get lucky, and still not setting ourselves up for legitimacy down the road.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

But this team has been built through the draft though. If you want to follow the Boston or St. Louis model, you don't blow up the entire organization just because they don't follow a perfect, monotonic improvement year over year. You keep steadily trying to improve and create a better team however you can.

Too often I see people with the notion that a good rebuild involves picking a bunch of prospects, then sitting back and watching them become a champion. Expecting a team to climb steadily from a rebuild to a championship without ups and downs and hard work on the part of the GM is an unrealistic expectation. If that is the standard for not blowing up a team, then we will be in a perpetual cycle of rebuilding.

I agree our team has been build through the draft, and if Monahan or Bennett became the 1C we needed it would be entirely different. But they aren't, we never finished building our core, and we ended the rebuild too early. Now we risk not making the improvements necessary to jump to legit contender status, something we could salvage if we re-tool this off-season and focus on our prime being 2-3 years away.

It is the exact opposite of sitting around and waiting and watching us become a champion. That's what you're suggesting to do with Monahan and Gaudreau lol. We gotta keep on evolving, accept that Monahan and Gaudreau aren't the leaders we needed them to be, and re-tool so that we don't just sit back and watch us falter. If we stand pat rn we will do exactly what you suggest, sit back and watch an unsuccessful rebuild.

 

[Anglesmith]

I always thought that Feaster's desperate attempts to convince everyone that they were a contender was just bluster while he waited out the brutal contracts and NTCs he'd been handed by Sutter.

If you ignore everything he said, Feaster's tenure was filled with subtle moves around the edges that improved the future and never negatively impacted our future. He was pretty clearly following a good overall plan that laid the foundation for our very quick rebuild.

 

[Anglesmith]

I agree our team has been build through the draft, and if Monahan or Bennett became the 1C we needed it would be entirely different. But they aren't, we never finished building our core, and we ended the rebuild too early. Now we risk not making the improvements necessary to jump to legit contender status, something we could salvage if we re-tool this off-season and focus on our prime being 2-3 years away.

It is the exact opposite of sitting around and waiting and watching us become a champion. That's what you're suggesting to do with Monahan and Gaudreau lol. We gotta keep on evolving, accept that Monahan and Gaudreau aren't the leaders we needed them to be, and re-tool so that we don't just sit back and watch us falter. If we stand pat rn we will do exactly what you suggest, sit back and watch an unsuccessful rebuild.

I don't disagree with "re-tooling," I just have a different definition of what that is. I think most teams, unless they are proven winners or on an upward trajectory after a rebuild, look to re-tool every off-season to an extent. If you aren't good enough, you attempt to address why, and I expect the Flames to do that just like they have every off-season under Treliving. That's the "hard work" I reference.

If you're selling your best players, though, then the only way to improve the roster is to then acquire even more players as good or better. The number and quality of picks required to pull that off more than 50% of the time would not fall under the category of "re-tool." That's a full-on rebuild. And what I'm saying is that rebuilding over and over until you get a core that immediately shoots to the top without work is a terrible idea. Selling off those top players and telling your fans they need to be patient is not my definition of "hard work" to create a contender.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

The thing is, no one is gonna trade us a top 5 pick in this draft. It just doesn’t make sense. So even if you get a pick for a Gaudreau or Monahan in the 6-10 range, you’re literally hoping for a player that develops to be as good as they are, but of course you’re running a high risk that they don’t. It’s not a good philosophy to do and that’s why you rarely ever see teams do that.

I would entertain doing a couple of deals like the Flyers did when they dealt Carter and Richards. I would love to get Hischier from NJ. Cody Glass intrigues me, honestly I’d take a flyer on Pulju as well, but not Monahan for Gaudreau. I don’t think it’s realistic but I would absolutely die to get Dubois from CLB.

 

[Dack]

Philly looked brutal this entire series, I think we're overrating a lot of their players (and I know that coaching was a huge difference that series). They're a very young team though so any targets aren't finished products yet.

 

[Mobiandi]

Philly looked brutal this entire series, I think we're overrating a lot of their players (and I know that coaching was a huge difference that series). They're a very young team though so any targets aren't finished products yet.

Philly looked lucky to get through 12th seed Montreal. Hart's better than I thought he was though

 

[Ace Rimmer]

 

[crackdown44]

Some guy in that thread offered Konecny, Myers and a 1st and boy. I think that might do it for me

I’m excessively high on Myers though

 

[User1996]

Some guy in that thread offered Konecny, Myers and a 1st and boy. I think that might do it for me

I’m excessively high on Myers though

We would be making out like bandits in that. I’d be plenty happy with 2/3 of those pieces