Speculation: Don’t trade Gaudreau

[crackdown44]

We would be making out like bandits in that. I’d be plenty happy with 2/3 of those pieces

Gaudreau is the best player in the trade

 

[User1996]

Gaudreau is the best player in the trade

And?

 

[crackdown44]

And?

You’re undervaluing him if you’d accept only 2 of those 3 pieces

If playoff performance is your beef, Konecny had 0 goals in 14 games this year

 

[User1996]

You’re undervaluing him if you’d accept only 2 of those 3 pieces

If playoff performance is your beef, Konecny had 0 goals in 14 games this year

Should have said that first...him being the best player in the trade and being undervalued are pretty unrelated.

But this isn’t about playoff production (it was also 16 games by the way). It’s about getting two very good pieces (admittedly the first doesn’t do much for me) but Konecny + Myers is about as good a return as you could hope for moving Gaudreau at this point. A 23 year old who just put up 61 points and a 23 year old who is arguably the Flyers 2nd best defenceman...not shabby at all.

Frankly, the Flyers would be insane to move all 3 pieces for Johnny.

 

[Mobiandi]

If the primary piece for a Gaudreau return is a winger, you might as well sell everyone and plunge into a rebuild

 

[Volica]

If the primary piece for a Gaudreau return is a winger, you might as well sell everyone and plunge into a rebuild

This.
If the big piece coming back in a trade is a winger, and unless that winger's name is Panarin, Kucherov or mayyybee Marner (retained), you've lost. If you're going down that direction just burn it down and start from scratch.

Also, in terms of Konecny. Great. So where is Couturier and Giroux to tie him to to get that many points from? No way in any world does Monahan and Lindholm lead him to being near a PPG player. Our PP1 (Where TK picked up 20+ points this year) doesn't have those weapons. Our PP1 is essentially Gaudreau QBing with Monahan as a triggerman and Tkachuk for garbage goals.

 

[Volica]

So in your opinion our team is too good to tank despite the fact that we aren’t good enough to win? Sounds like an Iggy-era mindset that resulted in years of mediocrity. If it was up to you you’d rather wish upon a star another O’Reilly once in a decade trade comes around than be proactive and build a young core and then add those other top pieces as necessary when they come available.

did we expect to come away with 0 top line centers from Bennett and Monahan? No. Does that mean we should settle with them and not keep going for that 1C and commit to being mediocre unless the perfect value deal comes around? No. Lets be proactive, realize Bennett and Monahan aren’t the 1C’s we need, and get one before we stick with what clearly doesn’t work. Do you really think our core is ‘too good’ when we’re clearly a middle-of-the-pack team?

No. But you can build on what we have. The majority of our core is under 27 years old, with a lot of it under 23 especially on the backend and our most valuable forward. You can't compare the Iginla era to this... Most of our core especially in the last 3-4 years of that was +30 years old and clearly not able to get back into contention. You saw GM's just trying to plug holes in a sinking boat.

Also what once in a decade trade? ROR was traded twice in a span of a few years. Tavares went out to FA. We almost had a Kadri trade (which would have changed our team dynamic significantly), Zibinejab was sold for nothing, Ryan Strome was sold for nothing, Tyler Seguin was traded for nothing, Wild Bill Karlsson was a giveaway in an expansion draft, Max Domi was traded across for a guy who won't be in our league sooner rather than later. These are just the ones I can think of over the past 4-5 years from the top of my head. Now tell me these don't happen.

The core is 'too good' to be a top 3 picking team. You're not going to out tank anyone with Matthew Tkachuk, Backlund, Monahan, Gaudreau, that entire backend. It's a team that was top spot in the West a season ago.

You should add to that core, not blow it up. If you want to blow it up, you've accepted we won't be competing for 3-4 years, with no guarantees that after that we will. Hell, Look up North. They have two of the top 5 players on the planet on one team and can't do anything with the team they've assembled around them. Now add a top 30 player on this Flamers team and, in my opinion, you have yourself an annual top team for the next 5+ years.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

This.
If the big piece coming back in a trade is a winger, and unless that winger's name is Panarin, Kucherov or mayyybee Marner (retained), you've lost. If you're going down that direction just burn it down and start from scratch.

Also, in terms of Konecny. Great. So where is Couturier and Giroux to tie him to to get that many points from? No way in any world does Monahan and Lindholm lead him to being near a PPG player. Our PP1 (Where TK picked up 20+ points this year) doesn't have those weapons. Our PP1 is essentially Gaudreau QBing with Monahan as a triggerman and Tkachuk for garbage goals.

I think the thing with Konency is you hope you’re looking at a budding star, not far off from Tkachuk. He also plays a style of game that has lots of energy and pace. He’s not Gaudreau, but if you’re looking for a change, you could do a lot worse. I would only do that deal if Samheim is coming back because I think he’s as good, if not better than Hanifin is right now and I think we need to add a top 3 dman this off-season.

 

[Volica]

Add to the core? Retool? Trade one core guy and add Hall? Full rebuild?

All valid points by all but it all comes down to waiting out our cap issues as Lucic, Gio, Backs and Ryan account for $20 million. Just think about that; four fading veterans take up one quarter of our cap space. Argue all you want about their positive points but none of the four are core guys moving forward.

At this point I think the Flames are stuck with moving Gaudreau for young players that can step in (Zacha/Boqvist) and a top 20 pick and hope to hit a couple of home runs in the middle of the draft. No cap space to add Hall and also try to address the gaps on defence and finding a #1 goalie.

Backlund will be an NHL'er with top 9 upside likely until he's 36-37. Players like him age like fine wines.

 

[Volica]

I think the thing with Konency is you hope you’re looking at a budding star, not far off from Tkachuk. He also plays a style of game that has lots of energy and pace. He’s not Gaudreau, but if you’re looking for a change, you could do a lot worse. I would only do that deal if Samheim is coming back because I think he’s as good, if not better than Hanifin is right now and I think we need to add a top 3 dman this off-season.

I am always very wary of taking a 'budding star' that has the luxury of playing with an established star (G) and another star that has a track record over over 3 years (Couts).

It could be worse. But to me if you're trading an asset and your return is makes you say, 'this could have been a lot worse, I guess.' You shouldn't trade the asset. The only way, if our GM had any IQ, Gaudreau is moved if literally you go 'Well, I couldn't say no to that either.'

Look, if the trade is Buffalo's 8th pick, Cozens and Reinhart for Gaudreau + some mix of our talent; then yeah. I couldn't say no to that. I wouldn't blame Treliving one bit for making that trade. But, like, Konecny + 1st for Gaudreau does nothing for me. We are a worse team today than yesterday.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

No. But you can build on what we have. The majority of our core is under 27 years old, with a lot of it under 23 especially on the backend and our most valuable forward. You can't compare the Iginla era to this... Most of our core especially in the last 3-4 years of that was +30 years old and clearly not able to get back into contention. You saw GM's just trying to plug holes in a sinking boat.

Also what once in a decade trade? ROR was traded twice in a span of a few years. Tavares went out to FA. We almost had a Kadri trade (which would have changed our team dynamic significantly), Zibinejab was sold for nothing, Ryan Strome was sold for nothing, Tyler Seguin was traded for nothing, Wild Bill Karlsson was a giveaway in an expansion draft, Max Domi was traded across for a guy who won't be in our league sooner rather than later. These are just the ones I can think of over the past 4-5 years from the top of my head. Now tell me these don't happen.

The core is 'too good' to be a top 3 picking team. You're not going to out tank anyone with Matthew Tkachuk, Backlund, Monahan, Gaudreau, that entire backend. It's a team that was top spot in the West a season ago.

You should add to that core, not blow it up. If you want to blow it up, you've accepted we won't be competing for 3-4 years, with no guarantees that after that we will. Hell, Look up North. They have two of the top 5 players on the planet on one team and can't do anything with the team they've assembled around them. Now add a top 30 player on this Flamers team and, in my opinion, you have yourself an annual top team for the next 5+ years.

Obviously we need to build on what we have. We have a young core that has very good pieces but clearly isn't good enough to be contender in the short-term, and so we need to build on our young core so that in 3 years we are truly competitive. Instead of pushing the envelope for the next 3 years and refusing to build our core for 3-4 years down the road when we can build a complete team. And you can't possibly think Ryan Strome or Max Domi are the level of C we need to make us legit contenders. You know that's a joke and we couldn't even afford them without clearing cap. O'Reilly is exactly the player we need, maybe Kadri as well, but we aren't going to get those guys without giving up a significant piece and clearing space. I don't even think we need to be picking top-3, we just need to move Monahan, Hanifin, and probably Gaudreau. It's exactly like Philly moving Carter and Richards who just weren't good enough to get it done despite some very good seasons.

I don't think we sell everybody, but we need to make that right deal for a 1C or 1D and we need the assets and cap space to do it. The way Johnny and Money performed made it clear that they're both great players but can't be counted on to lead an offence down the stretch. And worse than that their line got completely dominated 5v5 and they're a defensive liability. Add to that Gio regressing and an inability to withstand Dallas' forecheck and it's no surprise we were eliminted in the first round. I'm all for keeping Gaudreau so long as we're making a move for a 1C with other assets. The Kadri deal and the ROR deal would have been perfect, but we can't keep going with Monahan getting absolutely destroyed at 1C. Either give Gaudreau someone he can excel with or trade them both and build a top-line from scratch that doesn't get absolutely caved 5v5.

Gaudreau-_____-Lindholm
Mang-Backlund-Tkachuk
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Reider-Ryan-______

______-Rasmus
Gio-Brodie
Valimaki-_______

Find the right pieces, re-tool what doesn't work (Monahan and Hanifin in a top-line and 2nd-pairing role with high perceived value), and stay competitive. Problem is I don't think we have the assets to land that 1C and 1D, which is why I think trading for futures (while risky) is the way to go.

And if Johnny can bring back the right elite young prospect that can actually manage a top-line so-be-it, Johnny is replaceable by a guy like Hall who has elite talent but can't do it himself. It doesn't have to be a top-3 pick. What about Gaudreau for Newhook+? Gaudreau for Liam Foudy++? Gaudreau for a pick in the 5-7 range? Gives us an A level prospect AND 6 mil in cap that can be put towards an immediate Gaudreau replacement? We need to do what we can to find that 1C or 1D, and high-end prospects or picks are the only way we can find a real elite talent that are so rarely available for trade.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

I think the thing with Konency is you hope you’re looking at a budding star, not far off from Tkachuk. He also plays a style of game that has lots of energy and pace. He’s not Gaudreau, but if you’re looking for a change, you could do a lot worse. I would only do that deal if Samheim is coming back because I think he’s as good, if not better than Hanifin is right now and I think we need to add a top 3 dman this off-season.

Hanifin is nowhere close to Sanheim. One is a legit solid 2/ elite 3 and one is a good #4 below average #3. I agree we need to add a top-3 dman this off-season, in addition to a significant top-line upgrade. And since we have 0 cap space it's likely gonna require a re-tool and focusing 3-4 years down the road or else we're gonna be starting the next few seasons with a roster that would be lucky to win a playoff series again and no significant help in the pipeline

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Yeah if you trade Gaudreau might as well burn it to the ground IMO.

Trade Monahan. See what the team looks like without him. If it doesn’t work, reassess next year.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Some guy in that thread offered Konecny, Myers and a 1st and boy. I think that might do it for me

I’m excessively high on Myers though

Tough to say no to that package. This may just be a typo, but who's "boy"?

Tkachuk - Monahan - Konecny
Mangiapane - Backlund - Lindholm
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Pelletier - Ryan - Philips

Giordano - Myers
Hanifin - Andersson
Valimaki - Kylington

Might even be able to sign Hall, haven't crunched numbers on that lineup.

 

[Anglesmith]

Tough to say no to that package. This may just be a typo, but who's "boy"?

Tkachuk - Monahan - Konecny
Mangiapane - Backlund - Lindholm
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Pelletier - Ryan - Philips

Giordano - Myers
Hanifin - Andersson
Valimaki - Kylington

Might even be able to sign Hall, haven't crunched numbers on that lineup.

It's meant to be a comma, and think of the word boy like Kelly Hrudey saying "man alive."

 

[Anglesmith]

If the argument to trade Gaudreau is because we're blaming him for not being a playoff performer, why would bringing in Konecny help?

My criteria for being okay with such a trade would be a decent argument that we can improve as a team because of it, and I can't see that argument here.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

If the argument to trade Gaudreau is because we're blaming him for not being a playoff performer, why would bringing in Konecny help?

My criteria for being okay with such a trade would be a decent argument that we can improve as a team because of it, and I can't see that argument here.

Personally I think it’s best to keep Johnny, unless he won’t re-sign. However I have this feeling management wants to make a shakeup, so I think it’s something we all need to consider is a very real possibility.

 

[Body Checker]

Dallas seriously leveraged size, hits and defensive play to win game 1 against Vegas.

On the flip side Vegas has the roster to return the favour in game 2.

St Louis last year and a Dallas/Vegas WCF this year. The only way forward in the West is fast, heavier hockey. Move Johnny to the East.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

If the argument to trade Gaudreau is because we're blaming him for not being a playoff performer, why would bringing in Konecny help?

My criteria for being okay with such a trade would be a decent argument that we can improve as a team because of it, and I can't see that argument here.

Honestly the only good reason to trade Gaudreau is if the Flames are confident they can snag Hall as UFA.

Production wise, a slight downgrade (but near lateral move) at forward. It gives the team the option to see better angles with another right handed shot in the top six / top nine, which is something that isn't a necessity but definitely helps. It also brings in a cost-controlled replacement for Hamonic, and should be an improvement.

 

[User1996]

If the argument to trade Gaudreau is because we're blaming him for not being a playoff performer, why would bringing in Konecny help?

My criteria for being okay with such a trade would be a decent argument that we can improve as a team because of it, and I can't see that argument here.

I just don’t think that’s really the the whole argument at this point. Not for me anyways.

If you believe Konecny is a potential star who COULD bring more to the table in the future than Gaudreau in terms of grit, tenacity, etc. (Which I do). I think he would solidify the identity of being a hardworking, tenacious team nicely while bringing a bunch of skill.

If you believe Myers has the ability to turn into a good #2/3 defenceman and would address some of the recent concerns arising about our D (which I could see).

If you believe Gaudreau could be leaning to a return out East in a couple year (I don’t necessarily, but I also don’t not believe it either. Treliving would have a pulse on this you would figure).

If you believe any of these things and can get both Konecny and Myers plus a first (personally don’t think you get that in return) you would probably jump on that. If you can get Konecny and one of the other pieces it probably makes sense to you as a “re-tool” move.

 

[Anglesmith]

I just don’t think that’s really the the whole argument at this point. Not for me anyways.

If you believe Konecny is a potential star who COULD bring more to the table in the future than Gaudreau in terms of grit, tenacity, etc. (Which I do). I think he would solidify the identity of being a hardworking, tenacious team nicely while bringing a bunch of skill.

If you believe Myers has the ability to turn into a good #2/3 defenceman and would address some of the recent concerns arising about our D (which I could see).

If you believe Gaudreau could be leaning to a return out East in a couple year (I don’t necessarily, but I also don’t not believe it either. Treliving would have a pulse on this you would figure).

If you believe any of these things and can get both Konecny and Myers plus a first (personally don’t think you get that in return) you would probably jump on that. If you can get Konecny and one of the other pieces it probably makes sense to you as a “re-tool” move.

I don't believe that either guy tips the scales in terms of improving the team. I think it could certainly be argued that Konecny's size is a factor in why he has produced so dismally in the playoffs with 1+7 in 24 games. There is a real grass-is-greener factor here, in my opinion. At 23, he is likely currently entering his prime, and he is a good complimentary player and a first line option.

Myers had a great rookie year, but the Flames had a good look at him already and didn't see him as a worthy addition. Without much track record, I'm not sure if he would make a significant improvement over guys like Andersson and Valimaki (and whomever we sign to replace Brodie) in the long run. At least not significant enough to be worth downgrading Gaudreau to Konecny.

Even with those pesky rumours, the only argument for trading Gaudreau right now instead of next year prior to his NTC kicking in is the argument that you can get a better return now with two years left. So a mediocre return that makes us worse and doesn't address needs doesn't follow this logic.

 

[Dack]

Watching Konecny he's never going to be the player Gaudreau is. He shot 17% this year, we would be buying high.

 

[User1996]

I don't believe that either guy tips the scales in terms of improving the team. I think it could certainly be argued that Konecny's size is a factor in why he has produced so dismally in the playoffs with 1+7 in 24 games. There is a real grass-is-greener factor here, in my opinion. At 23, he is likely currently entering his prime, and he is a good complimentary player and a first line option.

Myers had a great rookie year, but the Flames had a good look at him already and didn't see him as a worthy addition. Without much track record, I'm not sure if he would make a significant improvement over guys like Andersson and Valimaki (and whomever we sign to replace Brodie) in the long run. At least not significant enough to be worth downgrading Gaudreau to Konecny.

Even with those pesky rumours, the only argument for trading Gaudreau right now instead of next year prior to his NTC kicking in is the argument that you can get a better return now with two years left. So a mediocre return that makes us worse and doesn't address needs doesn't follow this logic.

Well that’s the same argument that’s always beaten to death in that is it really fair to assume that development is over at 23? I don’t think a player is in their prime at 23. I strongly believe Konecny has another gear to breakout. I mean, he lead the Flyers in scoring this year, I think that is a pretty good indication he’s better than just a complimentary player.

But again, this isn’t about playoff production. But if it were, wouldn’t a smaller player that is more willing to do to dirty areas theoretically be able to produce better in the playoffs than a smaller perimeter player anyways? I know that’s a very tough debate to have because the evidence shows otherwise in this case.

 

[Anglesmith]

Well that’s the same argument that’s always beaten to death in that is it really fair to assume that development is over at 23?

It's definitely not fair to all players, but on average it is the expectation: A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

 

[Kranix]

Tough to say no to that package. This may just be a typo, but who's "boy"?

Tkachuk - Monahan - Konecny
Mangiapane - Backlund - Lindholm
Lucic - Bennett - Dube
Pelletier - Ryan - Philips

Giordano - Myers
Hanifin - Andersson
Valimaki - Kylington

Might even be able to sign Hall, haven't crunched numbers on that lineup.

Bleecccchhhhhh. No thank you to that lineup.