Do you believe Conor Timmins will be a top-4 defenceman?

[tigervixxxen]

I still believe he's got the tools. The problem is that he's not playing his game at all. I always thought it would be his skating that would be the issue, but it's really been his decision making more than anything. For such a savvy player, he's not been playing like one. He needs to get the message and start simplifying things on the defensive side. He was quite active offensively the other night.

His skating is a massive issue. He can’t recover in transition and he’s slow to turn in reaction. When he has to play mistake free because of it that’s a lot to ask because I agree Timmins is a smart player. The panic threshhold could go either way.

 

[Bender]

Did Bigras get that same consideration?

It's a good parallel as they were both drafted at #32 and both went through long rehab from injuries to get to the NHL. I think it's a slightly different circumstance as Bigras was seriously injured as a pro rather than Timmins who was still in junior but your point is well made.

I can't speak for others but I was never a big believer in Bigras but I think Timmins could end up a solid Top-4 d-man, in time. I won't be surprised if it's with another team though.

 

[AvsCOL]

His skating is a massive issue. He can’t recover in transition and he’s slow to turn in reaction. When he has to play mistake free because of it that’s a lot to ask because I agree Timmins is a smart player. The panic threshhold could go either way.

Eh I disagree. His skating is going to hold him back, but there are plenty of guys who are slow that adapt. He just needs to realize that in the NHL, he's below average in terms of skating. Avs are so spoiled with elite skating D that we sometimes forget how the rest of the league looks.

 

[larueskee]

You mean these stats?

EJ

304 points in 780 games = 0.39 pts/gm

2007-08 - 6th in ice time (Blues)
2009-10 - 3rd in ice time (Blues)
2010-11 - 2nd in ice time (Blues)
2010-11 - 1st in ice time (Avs)
2011-12 - 2nd in ice time (Avs)
2012-13 - 3rd in ice time (Avs)
2013-14 - 1st in ice time (Avs)
2014-15 - 1st in ice time (Avs)
2015-16 - 2nd in ice time (Avs)
2016-17 - 2nd in ice time (Avs)
2017-18 - 1st in ice time (Avs)
2018-19 - 1st in ice time (Avs)
2019-20 - 2nd in ice time (Avs)

Cole

140 points in 554 games = 0.25 pts/gm

2010-11 - 8th in ice time (Blues)
2011-12 - 8th in ice time (Blues)
2012-13 - 7th in ice time (Blues)
2013-14 - 8th in ice time (Blues)
2014-15 - 9th in ice time (Blues)
2014-15 - 7th in ice time (Pens)
2015-16 - 7th in ice time (Pens)
2016-17 - 6th in ice time (Pens)
2017-18 - 5th in ice time (Pens)
2017-18 - 6th in ice time (Jackets)
2018-18 - 4th in ice time (Avs)
2019-20 - 6th in ice time (Avs)

Did you bother to delve any deeper or did you just post the stats you wanted to? For instance no mention of Cole's plus minus compared to EJ's.
Johnson minus 27 for his career Cole plus 105 for his career a 132 goal swing.
Also you might want to think about backing out Johnson's 90 power play points ( almost 1/3 of EJ's total ). And using the larueskee net of214.
You mis read your ice time as only the average of ice per game played. If you added the games played by the average you would have found out that Cole actually played more minutes during those cup seasons than any other D man on the roster. Of course you didn't do that though and most people don't but its a pretty big deal if you are dressing for games instead of being broken down.

 

[Balthazar]

Cole.

I thought you'd move to the Wild forum?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Guy still can’t skate. You need to be able to do that. If you can’t there are hundreds of other guys out there who can.

The only bad skaters that can make it are ones whose decision making is so good and so quick that they’re already a step ahead of each play. We’ve all seen Timmins decision making ability and that ain’t it.

He’s a great passer. He has offensive ability. But he’s never getting preferred offensive opportunities on this back end which means he’ll never be put in a position to succeed. The more he plays, the worse his value will become.

 

[cinchronicity]

I resent that. Much time and effort went into producing that work of art.

2000 more drizzles like that and you've got yourself a Pollock!!

 

[Foppa2118]

Did Bigras get that same consideration?

Bigras was at the end of his 3rd pro season when he was traded though. This is the beginning of Timmins 2nd pro season.

Timmins is also a more highly regarded/accomplished prospect than Bigras was.

Timmins had a much better D+1 season in the OHL, and Bigras never had an OHL playoffs or WJC like Timmins did in that D+1 year.

 

[PAZ]

Guy still can’t skate. You need to be able to do that. If you can’t there are hundreds of other guys out there who can.

The only bad skaters that can make it are ones whose decision making is so good and so quick that they’re already a step ahead of each play. We’ve all seen Timmins decision making ability and that ain’t it.

He’s a great passer. He has offensive ability. But he’s never getting preferred offensive opportunities on this back end which means he’ll never be put in a position to succeed. The more he plays, the worse his value will become.

There are plenty of bad skaters out there that have a full-time gig, he's no worse than Ian Cole at skating. Timmins is going through a rough patch, he'll be fine long term.

His decisions with the puck are actually pretty decent, it's his reads that are the issue right now. It's a fine line of always playing it safe or taking a risk, Timmins would be fine if all Bednar told him to do is make the safest play possible, but he also won't get better that way. Timmins is a smart player, he will learn what he can and can't do.

Bednar sometimes gives his defense too much of a leash IMO, especially the ones that don't have enough skill. Graves has been a lot more effective since he's been told to just make the simple, safe plays instead of trying to keep the play alive.

 

[littletonhockeycoach]

No. Top 6. Stop asking.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think the crux of the issue is the Avs play at perhaps the fastest pace in the NHL, and Bednar wants his defenseman moving their feet and making quick north south plays to get the puck out of the zone, and in transition up ice.

The step up in pace from the OHL/AHL to the NHL is a tough adjustment by itself, let alone doing it for the Avalanche with their pace, and this is really the first time Timmins has experienced it, outside his two games last year.

It's tough to execute plays properly, right off the bat, at NHL pace as a first year D man. It takes time, and we know Timmins has missed a ton of hockey.

That's why it's so special how quickly Girard, Makar, and Byram adjusted, and even Byram has had a few bumps in the road lately.

 

[Pokecheque]

The skating doesn’t appear to be an issue. Even when he got supremely burned after making a bad pinch the other night, he still made it back to defend (unfortunately that made things worse but he still made it back). He can move around the ice just fine—it’s the decision-making that has to be faster. Too often he holds onto the puck too long and either turns it over or gets a pass/shot blocked.

 

[henchman21]

Timmins' skating certainly doesn't help him. If he was a better skater, he'd have more time to make decisions and he could create separation. He'd also be able to play his game better with his pinches and his gap. Without a doubt, he'd be a better player with better skating. That isn't the root of the problem though. He just isn't making good enough reads for the speed of the game, offensively and defensively. Offensively, his pinches and play with the puck are all over the place. Defensively, he isn't quick enough to react. He has to understand his limitations at this level better and adjust for them. As many have said, there are worse skaters playing the position and at Timmins' size, there are way, way worse skaters. Just got take a look at David Savard... that guy looks like he is skating in mud with concrete skates. They just have to play different. Timmins needs to play more conservative on his play without the puck. With the puck he needs to make quicker decisions. If the mental part of the game doesn't click and slow down for him... he won't be able to make it in the NHL as more than a bottom pairing warm body guy. And it won't be in with the Avs for sure.

If the Avs decide to move on Timmins, one of the first teams calling will be Tampa. He'd fit like a glove there too.

 

[Avs9296]

Timmins skates like his laces from each skate are tied together. Major problem.

The Savard comparison isn't great because Savard is a big strong stay at home dman who is physical.

Timmins doesnt have the physical tools (nor the injury history) to play that game.

 

[PAZ]

Timmins' skating certainly doesn't help him. If he was a better skater, he'd have more time to make decisions and he could create separation. He'd also be able to play his game better with his pinches and his gap. Without a doubt, he'd be a better player with better skating. That isn't the root of the problem though. He just isn't making good enough reads for the speed of the game, offensively and defensively. Offensively, his pinches and play with the puck are all over the place. Defensively, he isn't quick enough to react. He has to understand his limitations at this level better and adjust for them. As many have said, there are worse skaters playing the position and at Timmins' size, there are way, way worse skaters. Just got take a look at David Savard... that guy looks like he is skating in mud with concrete skates. They just have to play different. Timmins needs to play more conservative on his play without the puck. With the puck he needs to make quicker decisions. If the mental part of the game doesn't click and slow down for him... he won't be able to make it in the NHL as more than a bottom pairing warm body guy. And it won't be in with the Avs for sure.

If the Avs decide to move on Timmins, one of the first teams calling will be Tampa. He'd fit like a glove there too.

I think this is where he ends up. I have a feeling Tampa will value Timmins more than most due to their RHD need and cap crunch. Would love to get ABB or Stephens in return.

 

[Richard88]

Timmins' skating certainly doesn't help him. If he was a better skater, he'd have more time to make decisions and he could create separation. He'd also be able to play his game better with his pinches and his gap. Without a doubt, he'd be a better player with better skating. That isn't the root of the problem though. He just isn't making good enough reads for the speed of the game, offensively and defensively. Offensively, his pinches and play with the puck are all over the place. Defensively, he isn't quick enough to react. He has to understand his limitations at this level better and adjust for them. As many have said, there are worse skaters playing the position and at Timmins' size, there are way, way worse skaters. Just got take a look at David Savard... that guy looks like he is skating in mud with concrete skates. They just have to play different. Timmins needs to play more conservative on his play without the puck. With the puck he needs to make quicker decisions. If the mental part of the game doesn't click and slow down for him... he won't be able to make it in the NHL as more than a bottom pairing warm body guy. And it won't be in with the Avs for sure.

If the Avs decide to move on Timmins, one of the first teams calling will be Tampa. He'd fit like a glove there too.

What do you think Timmins' value would be if Tampa traded for him?

 

[henchman21]

Timmins skates like his laces from each skate are tied together. Major problem.

The Savard comparison isn't great because Savard is a big strong stay at home dman who is physical.

Timmins doesnt have the physical tools (nor the injury history) to play that game.

A reference to his skating... Savard is a bottom 5 level skater in the NHL. He makes up for it on reads and playing with limitations. Ryan McDonagh is obviously a much better player, but similar skater to Timmins, especially at his advanced age now.

I think this is where he ends up. I have a feeling Tampa will value Timmins more than most due to their RHD need and cap crunch. Would love to get JBB or Stephens in return.

Gotta snag Joseph before he fully breaks out. He'd solve the 3C issue really quick.

What do you think Timmins' value would be if Tampa traded for him?

Similar roster player, B- prospect, 3rd round pick

 

[PAZ]

Gotta snag Joseph before he fully breaks out. He'd solve the 3C issue really quick.

Has he ever played C? I thought he always played wing, even in juniors.

 

[henchman21]

Has he ever played C? I thought he always played wing, even in juniors.

He's been playing center off and on for the Lightning for the past two seasons... about a third of the time, little less in a 4th line capacity. Played a lot of center in the AHL last season.

Tampa typically runs things weird with their lineup. They run an 11-7 setup most of the time. The 4th 'line' rarely will actually start a shift on the ice. They'll jump on the ice with a rotation of Palat, Coleman or Goodrow on a wing with Joseph at center and Maroon on the other wing. Occasionally Point will double shift and run center. So F1 is probably a better description than center.

 

[PAZ]

He's been playing center off and on for the Lightning for the past two seasons... about a third of the time, little less in a 4th line capacity. Played a lot of center in the AHL last season.

Tampa typically runs things weird with their lineup. They run an 11-7 setup most of the time. The 4th 'line' rarely will actually start a shift on the ice. They'll jump on the ice with a rotation of Palat, Coleman or Goodrow on a wing with Joseph at center and Maroon on the other wing. Occasionally Point will double shift and run center.

If that's the case, sign me up. Will be interesting to see what the return is if Timmins does go to Tampa.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The decision making part is the reason for comparison Timmins to Bigras, not their pedigree (though Bigras himself had a 71 point season and finalist for defenseman of the year lest we forget). That’s the part people ragged on him for, that he’d panic with the puck and then were glad he got kicked to the curb because of it. And Bigras was a significantly better skater too.

 

[Pokecheque]

My understanding is that Bigras started off well, then got concussed, and afterward became a total perimeter player.

Also, even when he was showing promise there were things here and there about his work ethic and fitness level.

So far, Timmins has not shied away from contact at all, and I don't see any issues with his work ethic. I still think his decision making needs to get faster, once he's able to get that pass or shot off a moment quicker than he is, he'll be an NHL player.

For all the flack CT got for that bad pinch, it was Kadri who put him in a bad position to begin with when he made a weak-ass pass attempt up the boards instead of forcing it down low like he knew he should've.

 

[tigervixxxen]

You can’t pinch like that when you can’t recover. I agree it was sort of a no man’s land pass but wasn’t the first time it’s happened.

There’s been a lot of narrative building on failed prospects. Roy was looking for excuses to cut all the prospects before the dog and pony show preseason games in Quebec. They were forcing Bigras to be Makar in the AHL and then he had a secure NHL job until Sam came along. The concussion was not debilitating like it’s been made out to be. He was out 2 months. His problem was the same panic and decision making issues.

 

[Avsboy]

Timmins has 0 points on the season. That takes real effort when you get PP time even. I think he could need more time in the AHL to build confidence and stop making high risk decisions.

 

[ArWKo]

Timmins has 0 points on the season. That takes real effort when you get PP time even. I think he could need more time in the AHL to build confidence and stop making high risk decisions.

As others have said, his decision making and reads are the biggest problem now and he needs to adjust those up to an NHL level. It doesn’t matter how confident he gets in the AHL, at this point he just needs NHL time and he’ll either figure out or won’t and where he falls along that spectrum will determine what kind of player he’ll be.