Do you believe Conor Timmins will be a top-4 defenceman?

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

Let's wait and see what happens with Newhook, Ranta, Barron, and Kaut.

Also as others have pointed out, they got Barrie too. That counts for something.

Those are post Timmins. So from 2009 to 2017 they got 3 useful players when drafting outside the top 10. Rather than the 2 I thought it was.

We'll see how more recent prospects end up. I'm not writing them off. They're just outside the Timmins window so I didn't include them.

 

[shadow1]

Timmins becoming a regular NHLer would mean the Avs have drafted one useful NHL player outside of the top 10 since ROR.

That's sad.

Remember when they traded the #31 in 2015 (Aho, Carlo still on the board) to San Jose for #39 in 2015 (Greer), their own previously traded away 2nd in 2016 (#40, Morrisson), and their own previously traded away 7th in 2017 (Smirnov). Depth wins championships.

 

[Pokecheque]

Those are post Timmins. So from 2009 to 2017 they got 3 useful players when drafting outside the top 10. Rather than the 2 I thought it was.

We'll see how more recent prospects end up. I'm not writing them off. They're just outside the Timmins window so I didn't include them.

No argument on the drafting. I'd argue it still isn't good enough. The O'Reilly and Duchene trades did a TON to provide organizational depth they failed to acquire via drafting. One only hopes now that they don't have the luxury of lottery picks going forward that they'll nail things down in the lower rounds a bit better.

That said, if they actually get 2-3 players out each of these last three or so drafts that'll go a looooooong way toward keeping the contention window open a little longer.

 

[PepsiCenterMagic]

Might depend where he's at. On the Avs.... within the next few years, he may not become a top-4 regular.
But seeing his potential slightly realized in these last few weeks, could definitely see him as a top-4 regular in other organizations.

 

[Murzu]

Timmins becoming a regular NHLer would mean the Avs have drafted one useful NHL player outside of the top 10 since ROR.

That's sad.

You will be butchered.

 

[Hasbro]

Timmins becoming a regular NHLer would mean the Avs have drafted one useful NHL player outside of the top 10 since ROR.

That's sad.

Being glass half empty there.

 

[NOTENOUGHJTCGOALS]

You will be butchered.

You're right I also forgot William B Butcher.

 

[Pokecheque]

You will be butchered.

Naaaaah, fun as that would've been, he's (mostly) right. It'd be nice if this latest bumper crop of prospects from 2017-20 pans out.

 

[The Kingslayer]

With each passing day. That pass to spring Nuke last night which eventually led to Comphers hat trick goal was soooo pretty.

 

[Barklez]

Was this said?

I believe that it was reported.

Narrator: It wasn’t.

 

[redandyellowcametobe]

Narrator: It wasn’t.

Yeah. I don’t believe that’s been said or reported. The last thing I remember was “EJ was out long term and definitely wasn’t coming back by the end of the regular season.” That’s the last I’ve heard

 

[Nihiliste]

Nice 2nd period for timmins

 

[Barklez]

Yeah. I don’t believe that’s been said or reported. The last thing I remember was “EJ was out long term and definitely wasn’t coming back by the end of the regular season.” That’s the last I’ve heard

Yeah it sucks but I’m pretty sure the last thing we heard was along the lines of “hopefully he gets back to a place where he feels normal again”.

 

[De Montreal]

Is he hurt? didnt play in the 3rd after picking up two assists?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Makar, G and Toews ganged up and told Bednar to bench him because he was stealing their thunder.

This is so weird. He looked great and suddenly he disappears. It can't be serious I would think. It didn't seem to have anything wrong during his interview.

Ahhhhh I guess it is way too much to ask our FO/coach to give us a tiny bit of information.

 

[Vincent Adultman]

It’s Dater, but comforting. I’ll take it.

 

[John Mandalorian]

No argument on the drafting. I'd argue it still isn't good enough. The O'Reilly and Duchene trades did a TON to provide organizational depth they failed to acquire via drafting. One only hopes now that they don't have the luxury of lottery picks going forward that they'll nail things down in the lower rounds a bit better.

That said, if they actually get 2-3 players out each of these last three or so drafts that'll go a looooooong way toward keeping the contention window open a little longer.

I feel like Europe is underscouted.

 

[Foppa2118]

I feel like Europe is underscouted.

It is with the Avs.

They used to have this problem under Pracey too, but it got better when Roy/Sakic came in.

They only took one guy out of Europe in the last two drafts though, and that's Nils Aman with their last pick of the draft in the 6th round last year.

The 2019 draft was pre COVID though, and they didn't take any, so that's not the issue.

 

[McMetal]

It is with the Avs.

They used to have this problem under Pracey too, but it got better when Roy/Sakic came in.

They only took one guy out of Europe in the last two drafts though, and that's Nils Aman with their last pick of the draft in the 6th round last year.

The 2019 draft was pre COVID though, and they didn't take any, so that's not the issue.

The year before that, though, they took three from Russia, plus Annunen out of Finland and Kaut from the Czech league. Five out of eight picks in 2018. I don't think it's necessarily a philosophy change for them, just maybe a scenario where a couple years in a row their Euros were off the board, combined with them really liking guys like Ambrosio and Mutala. I wouldn't read too much into it unless they go back to the NA well again a third year in a row, especially in this weird Covid year where Europe is likely to be a source of diamonds in the rough.

And it's not like the last two drafts haven't yielded some promising early results, either. I've been critical of the CHL scouts a lot but Foudy and Barron might turn that around if they keep it up, and the USHL scouts have done some good work with Helleson and Ambrosio as well. Maybe with teams taking shots in the dark on Euros this year there will be some opportunities to grab guys closer to home, too.

 

[Foppa2118]

The year before that, though, they took three from Russia, plus Annunen out of Finland and Kaut from the Czech league. Five out of eight picks in 2018. I don't think it's necessarily a philosophy change for them, just maybe a scenario where a couple years in a row their Euros were off the board, combined with them really liking guys like Ambrosio and Mutala. I wouldn't read too much into it unless they go back to the NA well again a third year in a row, especially in this weird Covid year where Europe is likely to be a source of diamonds in the rough.

And it's not like the last two drafts haven't yielded some promising early results, either. I've been critical of the CHL scouts a lot but Foudy and Barron might turn that around if they keep it up, and the USHL scouts have done some good work with Helleson and Ambrosio as well. Maybe with teams taking shots in the dark on Euros this year there will be some opportunities to grab guys closer to home, too.

Yeah maybe, but that strains credulity a little with me. Like I said they got better for a while, but I don't think it's a coincidence they went two years with only one European taken with their last pick.

It's hard to believe that if they impossibly had a true list of the best players available, that they were all North American's at all their picks in two years except one. Something else led them to make those picks.

IMO it's a lack of scouting presence outside a few guys trying to scout all of Europe and Eastern Europe. Seems like it would be hard for them to have a true representation of all the prospects there, so they probably either aren't as knowledgable as they could be, or Hepple knows they're not as knowledgable as they could be, so he gives more weight to his NA scouts where they have a better scouting presence.

 

[McMetal]

Yeah maybe, but that strains credulity a little with me. Like I said they got better for a while, but I don't think it's a coincidence they went two years with only one European taken with their last pick.

It's hard to believe that if they impossibly had a true list of the best players available, that they were all North American's at all their picks in two years except one. Something else led them to make those picks.

IMO it's a lack of scouting presence outside a few guys trying to scout all of Europe and Eastern Europe. Seems like it would be hard for them to have a true representation of all the prospects there, so they probably either aren't as knowledgable as they could be, or Hepple knows they're not as knowledgable as they could be, so he gives more weight to his NA scouts where they have a better scouting presence.

That could be, but they took Euro players pretty regularly under Hepple from 2015-2018, including investing a top 10 pick in Rantanen (which obviously was a good choice), so it's hard for me to say that it's a systemic choice from the top that they don't trust the Euro scouts. Especially when they learned so heavily on them as recently as 2018. Pracey obviously had a bias for NA players, and we all know how that turned out, but Hepple doesn't strike me as having the same philosophy so far in his tenure. It sucks that he keeps letting his CHL scouts pound the table for duds like Anderson and Saigeon, but at least he doesn't hand those guys the keys all the time like Pracey did.

Like I said, give it another year, especially an unusual one like this, before we start wondering about a philosophy change in the scouting department. It's definitely plausible that their Euro board picks all got snagged up early and they had to rely on their plan B picks. Especially because Hepple let it slip in 2019 that they got "beaten up" on their board that year. So maybe the NA picks that year were their fallbacks.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

That could be, but they took Euro players pretty regularly under Hepple from 2015-2018, including investing a top 10 pick in Rantanen (which obviously was a good choice), so it's hard for me to say that it's a systemic choice from the top that they don't trust the Euro scouts. Especially when they learned so heavily on them as recently as 2018. Pracey obviously had a bias for NA players, and we all know how that turned out, but Hepple doesn't strike me as having the same philosophy so far in his tenure. It sucks that he keeps letting his CHL scouts pound the table for duds like Anderson and Saigeon, but at least he doesn't hand those guys the keys all the time like Pracey did.

Like I said, give it another year, especially an unusual one like this, before we start wondering about a philosophy change in the scouting department. It's definitely plausible that their Euro board picks all got snagged up early and they had to rely on their plan B picks. Especially because Hepple let it slip in 2019 that they got "beaten up" on their board that year. So maybe the NA picks that year were their fallbacks.

Wasn't there a report somewhere that the Avs were going to take Alexandrov which went off the board one pick before? Then they took Stienburg. Alexandrov was picked from the Q but he is German.

 

[MarkT]

I really feel like investing in 2-3 more European-based scouts could do the Avs a world of good, especially since we're going to be relying on ELC guys more and more every year.

 

[Hasbro]

It is with the Avs.

They used to have this problem under Pracey too, but it got better when Roy/Sakic came in.

They only took one guy out of Europe in the last two drafts though, and that's Nils Aman with their last pick of the draft in the 6th round last year.

The 2019 draft was pre COVID though, and they didn't take any, so that's not the issue.

And in ‘18 the same staff picked six Euros.

The last draft was pretty weird though and by all accounts JJ Peter’s was next on their list.

This coming draft will also be hard to draw trends from.

‘22 will be very telling with all the overage Euros missed out on thanks to scouting being hampered this year for everyone.

 

[Foppa2118]

And in ‘18 the same staff picked six Euros.

The last draft was pretty weird though and by all accounts JJ Peter’s was next on their list.

This coming draft will also be hard to draw trends from.

‘22 will be very telling with all the overage Euros missed out on thanks to scouting being hampered this year for everyone.

It's not the same staff though. Like I mentioned to you in the Sakic thread, they replaced both their European scouts after the 2018 draft, with Alexei Gusarov and Henrik Gradin.

Seems unlikely this is a coincidence. They might not have valued someone like Gusarov's opinion as much as the previous guys, since 2018-19 was his rookie year as a scout, and 2019-20 was cut short due to COVID.