Do you believe Conor Timmins will be a top-4 defenceman?

[PAZ]

EJ is still a pretty good defenseman, i'd say he's still closer to a #4 than a #5. Injuries has brought him down considerably, but he'll still comfortably be a bottom pairing defenseman by the time his contract is up.

Ian Cole went from being a #7/8 here to being Minnesota's clear #5.

 

[larueskee]

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on EJ’s decline and the narrative you have going here. I’ll just say that I certainly wish he could stick around after enduring the very worst years this franchise has ever had, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards. It’s not his fault that he’s on a rapid decline largely driven by injuries, but that’s the reality of the situation and it very likely ends with a buyout this offseason.

I really don't see him as declining in general. I just think he was over rated for so long and I would like to back that up with some numbers. Back to his current situation first. EJ feels the pressure of his contract and the young players coming up so rapidly. EJ responds by trying to provide the offense he was once capable of which really never was that much. EJ has only scored over 30 points 3 times and 2 of those were his first 2 years as a Blue and his 2013-2014 Avs year . After that his best seasons are much like Ian Cole's best 2 offensive campaigns. Then along comes Sammy G and after that Cale Orr/Bowen Byram follows. EJ responds by extending his shifts to the detriment of the team and his fragile body. Course that is how I see it. EJ could still succeed but his success will be limited to 20-30 points playing for another team. He will never see the ice time he used with Makar, Girard, Byram playing.

 

[Foppa2118]

Ej has always had bad luck and injuries and it is due to his mind and play and not anything or anyone else. Blaming Ian Cole who is clearing the crease while EJ skates right at him? Come on man I understand what Cole was doing but EJ chasing the play like that? The golf cart incident was so secretive that no one in the Blues organization would discuss it. It was due to EJ drinking on a group golf outing. The Blues Al Macinnis finally had enough of the guy and flatly stated that he is not the type of player we want here. Then got rid of him. As much as you want to believe in him he will not be part of any cup winning teams.

This just barely makes it into the top 100 ridiculous things you've said to troll people in defense Ian Cole.

 

[Foppa2118]

We’ll just have to agree to disagree on EJ’s decline and the narrative you have going here. I’ll just say that I certainly wish he could stick around after enduring the very worst years this franchise has ever had, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards. It’s not his fault that he’s on a rapid decline largely driven by injuries, but that’s the reality of the situation and it very likely ends with a buyout this offseason.

I'm fine agreeing to disagree, and I know we probably won't ever see eye to eye on this, and that's fine.

But you've said a few times that EJ played his best hockey in the playoffs last year. That can't be the case if he's on a rapid decline. That would also mean that his past injuries aren't causing him to decline.

Seems to me like either EJ's on a rapid decline and he played like crap last year in the playoffs. Or he played well and he's not on a rapid decline. Doesn't seem like it can be both.

 

[Pokecheque]

I'm fine agreeing to disagree, and I know we probably won't ever see eye to eye on this, and that's fine.

But you've said a few times that EJ played his best hockey in the playoffs last year. That can't be the case if he's on a rapid decline. That would also mean that his past injuries aren't causing him to decline.

Seems to me like either EJ's on a rapid decline and he played like crap last year in the playoffs. Or he played well and he's not on a rapid decline. Doesn't seem like it can be both.

I don't think I said he played his best hockey in the playoffs last year--I said that was the best he's looked in years. And I said that was precisely because the time off allowed him to fully heal from the continual glut of injuries that hamper him at any given time. That's not quite the same thing as saying he played his best hockey--I think we can all agree he's well past his prime. Only Joe Sakic was somehow able to hold off the scourge of Father Time well into his thirties.

So yes, I can say he's on a very rapid decline largely due to his inability to stay healthy. You're trying to set up an either/or argument and I'm saying the two things are mutually exclusive. He can't ever stay 100% healthy, and that takes an increasingly large toll on his overall game the older he gets. The brief, shining moment he was able to do his thing at full capacity last playoffs, it was because a worldwide pandemic shut the season down for months. If the season had gone on as normal I would bet you that he would've suffered another catastrophic injury at some point or he would've entered the playoffs banged up to hell, and therefore would've been much less effective.

If we're bringing playoff performances into this, the postseason before he struggled mightily against the Flames relentless forecheck and even admitted in a postgame interview (can't remember if it was against the Flames or in the next round against the Sharks) that he played poorly. And you could tell he was hurting in those playoffs, and it affected his game adversely.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't think I said he played his best hockey in the playoffs last year--I said that was the best he's looked in years. And I said that was precisely because the time off allowed him to fully heal from the continual glut of injuries that hamper him at any given time. That's not quite the same thing as saying he played his best hockey--I think we can all agree he's well past his prime. Only Joe Sakic was somehow able to hold off the scourge of Father Time well into his thirties.

So yes, I can say he's on a very rapid decline largely due to his inability to stay healthy. You're trying to set up an either/or argument and I'm saying the two things are mutually exclusive. He can't ever stay 100% healthy, and that takes an increasingly large toll on his overall game the older he gets. The brief, shining moment he was able to do his thing at full capacity last playoffs, it was because a worldwide pandemic shut the season down for months. If the season had gone on as normal I would bet you that he would've suffered another catastrophic injury at some point or he would've entered the playoffs banged up to hell, and therefore would've been much less effective.

If we're bringing playoff performances into this, the postseason before he struggled mightily against the Flames relentless forecheck and even admitted in a postgame interview (can't remember if it was against the Flames or in the next round against the Sharks) that he played poorly. And you could tell he was hurting in those playoffs, and it affected his game adversely.

I honestly don't see a meaningful distinction between "played his best hockey" and "best he's looked in years" in the context of what we're talking about. I think what I'm saying applies to the latter just the same.

I think you meant to say they aren't mutually exclusive, but I don't see how EJ can look the best he's looked in years, while simultaneously being on a rapid decline. Seems literally impossible for both to be true.

But we've both said our peace on this, so I'll let it go.

 

[Pokecheque]

I honestly don't see a meaningful distinction between "played his best hockey" and "best he's looked in years" in the context of what we're talking about. I think what I'm saying applies to the latter just the same.

I think you meant to say they aren't mutually exclusive, but I don't see how EJ can look the best he's looked in years, while simultaneously being on a rapid decline. Seems literally impossible for both to be true.

But we've both said our peace on this, so I'll let it go.

I said a once-in-a-lifetime interruption in a hockey season allowed Erik Johnson to heal his brittle bones in time for the Bubble Tournament. This kind of pause will likely never, ever happen again, and therefore we will likely never see THAT level of EJ ever again. Is this clear enough for you?

 

[Foppa2118]

I said a once-in-a-lifetime interruption in a hockey season allowed Erik Johnson to heal his brittle bones in time for the Bubble Tournament. This kind of pause will likely never, ever happen again, and therefore we will likely never see THAT level of EJ ever again. Is this clear enough for you?

What you're saying is very clear, I just 100% disagree with you, and think it's illogical. Not sure why the last question was necessary.

 

[Pokecheque]

What you're saying is very clear, I just 100% disagree with you, and think it's illogical. Not sure why the last question was necessary.

It felt like you were parsing my arguments and I'm not sure why, I think I made my point clear. In any event, it's nothing more than an opinion based on observations, and you are free and clear to disagree with it. In any event, I think the questions about EJ's decline or not-decline will become moot in due time, probably as soon as this offseason occurs, whenever that is.

 

[The Abusement Park]

What you're saying is very clear, I just 100% disagree with you, and think it's illogical. Not sure why the last question was necessary.

Why is it illogical? It’s the healthiest he’s been in god knows how long and it clearly boosted his performance. The issue is he’s never healthy enough to play at that level.

 

[Foppa2118]

Why is it illogical? It’s the healthiest he’s been in god knows how long and it clearly boosted his performance. The issue is he’s never healthy enough to play at that level.

I'm really trying to end this conversation, but if he played well, is his play rapidly on a decline? Or not?

How much, if any his injuries are affecting his play, is a purely speculative argument. There's nothing I can say or you can say that can even remotely prove it's having a big impact, and it's based on a premise that I'm 100% disagreeing with. That he's played like crap and is on a rapid decline.

People have been saying EJ's on a rapid decline for 5-6 years now. He should be in the ECHL by now, but he's not. He's still in the NHL being relied on by his NHL coach more than almost any other defenseman on his team.

Like I pointed out earlier, the coach also 100% disagrees with what you're saying, or he wouldn't have made EJ 1st in ice time, both overall, and at even strength as recently as 2017-18 and 2018-19 with both Barrie and Girard on the team.

You don't play a guy more than any other player, if they suck and they're on a rapid decline.

 

[Richard88]

I said a once-in-a-lifetime interruption in a hockey season allowed Erik Johnson to heal his brittle bones in time for the Bubble Tournament. This kind of pause will likely never, ever happen again, and therefore we will likely never see THAT level of EJ ever again. Is this clear enough for you?

In case it wasn't clear, here's a pretty picture:

 

[Richard88]

Why is it illogical? It’s the healthiest he’s been in god knows how long and it clearly boosted his performance. The issue is he’s never healthy enough to play at that level.

That game against Arizona where he had 8 shots on goal was the best he's looked in a long, long time.

Maybe the solution is to play him in alternating games or every 3rd game? We can easily afford to do that, it might even be helpful for Timmins to play 2 and then watch 1, then play 2 and watch 1 to try to dial himself in on what he needs to work on.

 

[henchman21]

In case it wasn't clear, here's a pretty picture:

View attachment 400082

I think this is my favorite post of all time.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I'm really trying to end this conversation, but if he played well, is his play rapidly on a decline? Or not?

How much, if any his injuries are affecting his play, is a purely speculative argument. There's nothing I can say or you can say that can even remotely prove it's having a big impact, and it's based on a premise that I'm 100% disagreeing with. That he's played like crap and is on a rapid decline.

People have been saying EJ's on a rapid decline for 5-6 years now. He should be in the ECHL by now, but he's not. He's still in the NHL being relied on by his NHL coach more than almost any other defenseman on his team.

Like I pointed out earlier, the coach also 100% disagrees with what you're saying, or he wouldn't have made EJ 1st in ice time, both overall, and at even strength as recently as 2017-18 and 2018-19 with both Barrie and Girard on the team.

You don't play a guy more than any other player, if they suck and they're on a rapid decline.

We’re saying that his lack of health has clearly impacted his game. It’s not a surprise that after a 3.5 month break EJ came back looking great because he was fully healthy unlike during the season where his body struggles to keep up.

 

[Pokecheque]

In case it wasn't clear, here's a pretty picture:

View attachment 400082

 

[Pokecheque]

That game against Arizona where he had 8 shots on goal was the best he's looked in a long, long time.

Maybe the solution is to play him in alternating games or every 3rd game? We can easily afford to do that, it might even be helpful for Timmins to play 2 and then watch 1, then play 2 and watch 1 to try to dial himself in on what he needs to work on.

Naw. They can't Chelios him. They just gotta play him as much as they can for as long as they can until he inevitably receives that big hit or collision that blows out his knee, shreds his shoulder, or dislocates his spine. Plus, you're just never gonna convince that guy to sit in the press box for a game or two to rest up--he's going to drag himself onto the ice if he has to.

 

[Foppa2118]

In case it wasn't clear, here's a pretty picture:

View attachment 400082

Here's another picture. Except this one's from reality.

EJ

2013-14 - 1st in ice time
2014-15 - 1st in ice time
2015-16 - 2nd in ice time
2016-17 - 2nd in ice time
2017-18 - 1st in ice time
2018-19 - 1st in ice time
2019-20 - 2nd in ice time

So lets be honest here. By saying EJ has played as poorly as you're implying (whether it's injury related or not), what you guys are really saying here is that you're better at evaluating players from your couch on TV, than Jared Bednar, who's won championships at every level, and has a chance to win a Stanley Cup, is at evaluating his players watching them from a few feet away, every day.

That's pretty impressive guys. Weird that you're on the internet talking about hockey and not behind an NHL bench though.

 

[MonsterMack]

So lets be honest here. By saying EJ has played as poorly as you're implying (whether it's injury related or not), what you guys are really saying here is that you're better at evaluating players from your couch on TV, than Jared Bednar, who's won championships at every level, and has a chance to win a Stanley Cup, is at evaluating his players watching them from a few feet away, every day.

That's pretty impressive guys. Weird that you're on the internet talking about hockey and not behind an NHL bench though.

Can we quote this the next time you disagree with some decision Bednar makes?

 

[Richard88]

Here's another picture. Except this one's from reality.

EJ

2013-14 - 1st in ice time
2014-15 - 1st in ice time
2015-16 - 2nd in ice time
2016-17 - 2nd in ice time
2017-18 - 1st in ice time
2018-19 - 1st in ice time
2019-20 - 2nd in ice time

So lets be honest here. By saying EJ has played as poorly as you're implying (whether it's injury related or not), what you guys are really saying here is that you're better at evaluating players from your couch on TV, than Jared Bednar, who's won championships at every level, and has a chance to win a Stanley Cup, is at evaluating his players watching them from a few feet away, every day.

That's pretty impressive guys. Weird that you're on the internet talking about hockey and not behind an NHL bench though.

So he was 1st or 2nd in TOI on a defense that included who exactly?

Until the 2019 playoffs when Makar joined we had a D group consisting of Johnson, Barrie, Zadorov, rookie Girard, Cole, and Nemeth. Is it really surprising that he got that much ice time in that group?

This season is pretty much the first opportunity Bednar has had to move Johnson down the lineup, and he did it immediately. He could have stuck with Girard-Johnson as a pair, but he chose not to. Why would he do that if Johnson is still playing at his usual level?

Also not sure why you omitted 2020-21 from your list? His minutes this season are noticeably down, as he's averaging 19 minutes (excluding the 1st and last game which were obviously anomalies), which puts him 4th in TOI behind Makar, Girard, and Toews. Byram and Graves are close behind him at 18+ as well.

Also notice that his TOI has been decreasing every year the last 4 seasons since Bednar took over, and he's now under 20 minutes for the first time since his rookie year. Admittedly the sample size is small, but given that Bednar has stated that he intends to have Johnson on the 3rd pairing this season it's unlikely that his TOI will get above 20 minutes again very often.

So maybe you're right... We SHOULD listen to Bednar, because HE is the one who's reduced Johnson's role and minutes!

 

[Foppa2118]

Can we quote this the next time you disagree with some decision Bednar makes?

None of the small critiques I've had about Bednar come even close to me saying the guy he plays more than anyone, is as actually playing the kind of hockey that HF group think says about EJ.

It's not even remotely comparable. I don't even criticize his blender approach because he's proven it works.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Here's another picture. Except this one's from reality.

EJ

2013-14 - 1st in ice time
2014-15 - 1st in ice time
2015-16 - 2nd in ice time
2016-17 - 2nd in ice time
2017-18 - 1st in ice time
2018-19 - 1st in ice time
2019-20 - 2nd in ice time

So lets be honest here. By saying EJ has played as poorly as you're implying (whether it's injury related or not), what you guys are really saying here is that you're better at evaluating players from your couch on TV, than Jared Bednar, who's won championships at every level, and has a chance to win a Stanley Cup, is at evaluating his players watching them from a few feet away, every day.

That's pretty impressive guys. Weird that you're on the internet talking about hockey and not behind an NHL bench though.

For 90% of his career here he was competing with guys who were barely NHL players. Of course he’s going to get more time than Barrie, Hejda, O’Brien, Guenin, Warsofsky, Gologoof and Weircoch. This is the first few seasons where he wouldn’t have been guaranteed to be in the Avs top 4 and even though he’s still a top 4 guy that doesn’t mean he hasn’t declined from where he was 3/4/5/6 years ago.

Also coaches depend on players that they shouldn’t all the time. I don’t think Bednar was wrong in doing so because for so long EJ was the only legitimately reliable defender we had and his minutes couldn’t have really been limited.

 

[larueskee]

This just barely makes it into the top 100 ridiculous things you've said to troll people in defense Ian Cole.

Did you bother to check the stats of either player?

 

[Pokecheque]

I don't see why it's so egregious to conclude that EJ is declining. He is. He's 32 years old. Three more years and he will reach the age the CBA essentially punishes teams for signing long-term deals past this point, because a lot of guys retire not long afterward.

No one said dude sucked donkey balls. We're saving that ire for J.T. Compher at present. What we are saying is that he's past his prime and given the talent on the roster, he's a third pairing guy. Why is this such an effrontery? He's gone from playing top pairing minutes to 2nd pairing minutes last season to third pairing minutes this season.

BTW it should be noted in that list of seasons, EJ only hit close to a full season of games played twice.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't see why it's so egregious to conclude that EJ is declining. He is. He's 32 years old. Three more years and he will reach the age the CBA essentially punishes teams for signing long-term deals past this point, because a lot of guys retire not long afterward.

No one said dude sucked donkey balls. We're saving that ire for J.T. Compher at present. What we are saying is that he's past his prime and given the talent on the roster, he's a third pairing guy. Why is this such an effrontery? He's gone from playing top pairing minutes to 2nd pairing minutes last season to third pairing minutes this season.

BTW it should be noted in that list of seasons, EJ only hit close to a full season of games played twice.

I don't think anything you said here is egregious, and I wouldn't even disagree with it. Saying he's not playing at the level he did years ago is totally fine IMO.

What I do think is over the top is saying EJ's aging like potato salad in the sun, or Richard's silly graph, or even when you said he's on a "rapid" decline or that he's "declined considerably" or that the injuries have taken "a serious toll on his game."

I don't agree with any of that, and don't see how it can be true if he played as well as he did in the playoffs, and Bednar (who knows what it takes to win championships) has watched him every day, and has trusted him enough to give him either the most or second most ice time on the team.