Did signing Tavares lead to the Leafs' downfall?

[GOilers88]

Tavares for Doughty. Now that 11 million equals balance

 

[ZJuice]

It wasn’t the Leafs fault. It was Tavares’

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Hindsight being 20/20.

Dubas should have bridged them all, and knocked down the price significantly.

 

[Kennedys]

Hindsight being 20/20.

Dubas should have bridged them all, and knocked down the price significantly.

Dubas is managing the Leafs like it's NHL20 so he probably just pushed the wrong button

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

(Obviously as an Isles fan, this thread will be taken in a very rational way by readers...)

There's no question Tavares is a talented player. 47 goals and 88 points last year, 14 points in 15 games this year. It's not really a question of whether he is worth what he's getting paid.

The question is, did the Leafs make a mistake in adding him to their roster, when they really didn't need another high-powered forward.

• Adding Tavares at $11 million per year instantly increased what the younger RFAs would be getting paid on their next contract. You could argue that Matthews and Marner were getting bank either way, but with Tavares as a team comparable, it made it easy for the duo to point at Tavares and say, there's what we will be getting paid. Look at the other big RFA signings around the league, and only Panarin topped them, and most are well below their price tags. This ends up hurting the team depth, as the cap space shrinks.
• Adding $11 million for one forward, meant $11 million less in cap for depth players, defense and back-up goaltending. If they hadn't signed Tavares (besides whatever less they would have possibly paid Matthews and Marner), this past offseason they could have added, for example, Robin Lehner, Ben Chiarot, and Derrick Brassard (or any other number of solid depth additions.)
• For a team that seems stuck in a morass, Tavares is not the captain to raise them up. He's never been a rah-rah guy, instead letting his play speak for him. That works if you've got the character in the line-up to follow an example, but with such a young team, they either needed a big voice or someone who's been the summit. Tavares is not that guy.
• There's a case to be made that Dubas was playing NHL 20 GM in signing Tavares. Loading up on scorers works in a video game, but in reality, you need role players. You need grinding centers, you need defensively responsible wingers and you need physical defensemen. Dubas apparently just planned to win every game 6-5, and when his planned offense didn't materialize, his team sunk like a stone.

The worst thing about the situation for the Leafs, because of all the long-term, high-dollar contracts, is, there's no clear way out. You either have to sell low on players and set yourself back even more, or pin your hopes on a new coach being able to turn players into something they currently aren't, since the players they need aren't on the roster, and there's no room to add them.

Good post, I'd say it's more a symptom than a cause though. In hindsight it was probably (definitely?) a mistake, but I also think it's just a sign of poor team planning. Misplaying RFAs and paying too much, then paying too much for a UFA- it feels like the Leafs just don't really have a long-term vision, everything is reactionary, poorly planned, poorly timed. So I can't blame the Tavares signing because it's one of a number of mistakes, and because I'm not convinced they wouldn't have done something else dumb with that $11 mil. If no Tavares they woulda gone for Panarin or Karlsson or somethin instead of balancing the lineup with some solid $3 mil pieces.

 

[RMimagery]

They didn't add him for "free", as some say. $11mm is actually quite expensive, especially when you already have a legit 1C.

Yes, you didn't have to trade someone, but I'm sure it'd be nice to have a solid Dman and a backup goalie that you can actually play and win with.

 

[Xerloris]

I don't think Mathews and Marner deserved 11m AAV. What's the point of RFA years if the team can't even get a reasonable cap hit during that time?

 

[illpucks]

Tavares making more $$$ than Crosby is a disgrace to the sport. Sid is the best player in the game and a worse version of him is making more than 1 mill more

 

[oobga]

Should have kept Lou to sign the kids. His technique of holding players families hostage during negotiations works wonders. Dubas' method of waiting a long time to hand a player a blank cheque is not quite as effective.

 

[mouser]

Tavares making more $$$ than Crosby is a disgrace to the sport. Sid is the best player in the game and a worse version of him is making more than 1 mill more

Yup, it's an absolute travesty.

What in the world were the Leafs thinking when they signed Tavares last summer rather then signing Crosby instead?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

They didn't add him for "free", as some say. $11mm is actually quite expensive, especially when you already have a legit 1C.

Yes, you didn't have to trade someone, but I'm sure it'd be nice to have a solid Dman and a backup goalie that you can actually play and win with.

Yeah, the "got him for free" argument completely fails to take into account the fact that there's a salary cap, and that adding players for significant money limits what you can do with the rest of your roster.

IMO, if you're going to pay someone a top 2 salary (at the time of signing) that takes up such a significant amount of the team's cap space, they better be a top 2 or at least top 5 player in hockey. Tavares isn't that.

 

[koyvoo]

He looks downright broken down and depressed in this post game interview. I wonder if he’ll go to bed tonight in Islander jammies and bed sheets.

 

[Rehabguy]

Their recent slide got me thinking.

What possible motivational speech can Tavares as Captain give in the locker room that his teammates would find believable?

I could see Tavares practicing his speech:

“It’s about being loyal to the team that drafted you... no that won’t do”

“It’s about not turning your back on your fans and teammates who have always supported you.... no that won’t do either”

“It’s about doing what you say you’re gonna do... DAMN!”

“It’s about not leaving until the job is done........CRAP!”

“It’s about........ oh forget it”

The guy no longer has any credibility as a leader. As a fellow player and knowing his history with his previous team who would actually take him seriously?

 

[snag]

Dubas is managing the Leafs like it's NHL20 so he probably just pushed the wrong button

Time to reset and go back to the last game save....

 

[MattMartin]

Downfall... Downfall? We're 20 games into the season and you want to talk about downfall? St. Louis at this point last season was worse than Toronto is now. I'm not saying we're going to win the Cup this season but we will make the playoffs and then who knows from there. I just hope they fire Babcock sooner than later because I don't think him and this team are a match made in heaven and so we likely won't get to the promised land while they're together.

It's still very early, and I still seem them making the playoffs for what it's worth. I think someone will have to be moved to fix the D before they can contend. So even if they don't win the cup this year, there is still the summer to move a piece or 2.

 

[WestCoastFinnie]

Yes

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

To be fair here, St.Louis had the D to make a playoff run. I could be way off here, I just don't see Toronto pulling a "St.Louis" this year. I still think they make the playoffs. I just don't see the "Binnington" for Toronto, but who knows.

People who use St. Louis as an example are like the people who use winning the lottery as a savings strategy for their retirement. Sure, it *could* happen. But there's a reason it's incredibly rare.

 

[koyvoo]

To be fair here, St.Louis had the D to make a playoff run. I could be way off here, I just don't see Toronto pulling a "St.Louis" this year. I still think they make the playoffs. I just don't see the "Binnington" for Toronto, but who knows.

They definitely could still make it but a turnaround has to happen virtually next game. They need a 38-21 record in their final 59 games to hit 97 pts which would likely be a wildcard spot.

Problem is that they’ve been mediocre for almost a full calendar year now. They’re at the start of a pretty big road trip and their star goal scorer has only 1 road goal on the year and it came in the 2nd game of the year. Many things need to change and change quickly for them.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I love Toronto fans. They were so happy, when Toronto signed Matthews and then Marner. Like, the team locked its young and supertalented franchize players for long enough to win all the cups in the world, and now they blame Dubas in everything. The same fans would have eaten him alive, if he didn't sign the players...

 

[Based Anime Fan]

Tavares wasn't the player the Leafs needed, but he's the player they got.

In retrospect, the Tavares signing was, and is, redundant to the Leafs. I'm not saying it's a bad signing, as any team in the league that could have afforded that contract would love to have him, but the Leafs are one of the few teams that didn't outright need him. He wasn't the missing piece to the puzzle, or some signing to replace a lost player; he's simply a very good player on a team that, even then, had obvious faults in it's composition that should have been the priority.

1 - Lack of dependable backup goaltending. Sparks and Hutchinson were both disasters and Kaski got straight merc'd his first game. it may not get better this season unless somehow the Leafs can swing for someone on the market who's cost controlled... which means they either ride and die with their current options or have to trade pieces to get someone.

2 - Defense. Yes yes, you got Muzzin. Problem is, defensively, Muzzin is all you really have. Ceci's a bum, Barrie is either improperly used or just plainly a bad fit for the Leafs. Marincin is Marincin. What other options do they have? Sandin and Liljigren? I don't know if throwing two rookies on this roster, no matter how good they look on the Marlies, is going to fix anything. More likely they get chewed up this season.

3 - "Grit". I hate seeing that. The Leafs don't so much need literal grit as much as role players that play with an edge. They need someone like a Blake Coleman or Kadri (when he's on his game)... someone who'll play a physical game but retain some skill and attention to defense. I have no idea how Kadri was defensively, but a Coleman-type on the Leafs would help them.

For the price of Tavares, 2 of the 3 above could have been resolved. Now, with the way the team is built (meaning, the cap being screwed), they have to move roster pieces to correct any of the above.

I do have to question Dubas on this signing... was he seriously trying to build a team around the HF joke "Outscore them by enough and you don't need a solid defense"? There again, how much of that contract was made by Lou before he left, and how much was actually Dubas?

Plus, if you believe some people, Tavares is the cause of Marner getting his point totals last year, so indirectly Tavares caused Marner's contract.

Even further down the rabbit hole for some people, Tavares caused Matthews' contract, too.

 

[Just Linda]

How many Toronto threads does the main board need? It seems like the Toronto board is already overloaded with a new gripe thread daily.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

Hindsight being 20/20.

Dubas should have bridged them all, and knocked down the price significantly.

They weren't taking bridges?

 

[Tres Peleches]

Personally, I think It was unbridled enthusiasm that led to the Maple Leafs downfall.

You see, Kyle Dubas was a simple Canadian boy —- you might say a cockeyed optimist —- who got caught up in the high-stakes game of contract negotiation and unrestricted free agency

 

[Martin Skoula]

They didn't add him for "free", as some say. $11mm is actually quite expensive, especially when you already have a legit 1C.

Yes, you didn't have to trade someone, but I'm sure it'd be nice to have a solid Dman and a backup goalie that you can actually play and win with.

Which FA defenseman did you think they should have gotten with that money? I don't see anyone that would help right now, maybe Stralman?

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

The Leafs are the hockey version of the Harlem Globetrotters. They have all the talent but no role players, no grinders and they spend all their time trying to do spinarooni's and high risk moves from the top rope.