Did signing Tavares lead to the Leafs' downfall?

[DarkHorse2]

(Obviously as an Isles fan, this thread will be taken in a very rational way by readers...)

There's no question Tavares is a talented player. 47 goals and 88 points last year, 14 points in 15 games this year. It's not really a question of whether he is worth what he's getting paid.

The question is, did the Leafs make a mistake in adding him to their roster, when they really didn't need another high-powered forward.

• Adding Tavares at $11 million per year instantly increased what the younger RFAs would be getting paid on their next contract. You could argue that Matthews and Marner were getting bank either way, but with Tavares as a team comparable, it made it easy for the duo to point at Tavares and say, there's what we will be getting paid. Look at the other big RFA signings around the league, and only Panarin topped them, and most are well below their price tags. This ends up hurting the team depth, as the cap space shrinks.
• Adding $11 million for one forward, meant $11 million less in cap for depth players, defense and back-up goaltending. If they hadn't signed Tavares (besides whatever less they would have possibly paid Matthews and Marner), this past offseason they could have added, for example, Robin Lehner, Ben Chiarot, and Derrick Brassard (or any other number of solid depth additions.)
• For a team that seems stuck in a morass, Tavares is not the captain to raise them up. He's never been a rah-rah guy, instead letting his play speak for him. That works if you've got the character in the line-up to follow an example, but with such a young team, they either needed a big voice or someone who's been the summit. Tavares is not that guy.
• There's a case to be made that Dubas was playing NHL 20 GM in signing Tavares. Loading up on scorers works in a video game, but in reality, you need role players. You need grinding centers, you need defensively responsible wingers and you need physical defensemen. Dubas apparently just planned to win every game 6-5, and when his planned offense didn't materialize, his team sunk like a stone.

The worst thing about the situation for the Leafs, because of all the long-term, high-dollar contracts, is, there's no clear way out. You either have to sell low on players and set yourself back even more, or pin your hopes on a new coach being able to turn players into something they currently aren't, since the players they need aren't on the roster, and there's no room to add them.

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[Phrazer]

Early days in the season still. Plenty of time to figure it out.

To answer your question no not really. It was the Tavares signing that created all kind of expectations for the leafs, it's not like they were some perennial contender that signed Tavares and have tanked since. They were a young team still figuring it out then and they still are now.

 

[BB88]

Tavares was an quality asset, and without the we can and we will talk allow Dubas to trade Nylander(before last season) for defense to balance out the roster.

Much rather sign Tavares than a combo of your listed depth players.

 

[LemmyUlanov55]

I don't follow the Leafs situation closely but if their fanbase turns against Tavares, I guess he'd be the most expensive scapegoat ever.

 

[Boxertim]

this is your future....your young scorers develop in the AHL and then they come up to the big club, help win and then are trading before the big contract. Rinse and repeat

 

[ScaredStreit]

Signing Tavares wasn't their mistake. Giving into Nylander was and neglecting defense and goaltending was.

I understand as Islanders that losing Tavares really sucked for us and I get that us playing very well the past few seasons and the Leafs struggling this season severely helps heal that wound...but make no mistake about it: any team in the NHL is better with him in their lineup (yes even us this season would be better with him).

 

[typicalsavage]

So wait, you think passing on Tavares for Lehner, Chariot and Brassard is What the Leafs shouldve done?? It’s obvious the team isnt motivated, the Islanders are. You think the Leafs would be better if they swapped Kapanan, Mikheyev, Kerfort etc for Komarov, Cizikas, Cluttercrap and whatever else the Islanders have? What exactly have the Isles done to be a model franchise? Get swept by a mediocre team and have a hot start?

 

[koyvoo]

Adding a Tavares doesn’t start a downfall for anyone and is always a positive add. At worst, it could be argued that they had a potent offence already developing and could’ve used the money elsewhere (Its clear now that Dubas knows very little about assembling a balanced lineup), but that’s a long way from saying it started a downfall.

 

[typicalsavage]

Tavares has nothing to do with the Leafs issues. Its more about Nylander and what happened after.

 

[MrThomas]

(Obviously as an Isles fan, this thread will be taken in a very rational way by readers...)

There's no question Tavares is a talented player. 47 goals and 88 points last year, 14 points in 15 games this year. It's not really a question of whether he is worth what he's getting paid.

The question is, did the Leafs make a mistake in adding him to their roster, when they really didn't need another high-powered forward.

• Adding Tavares at $11 million per year instantly increased what the younger RFAs would be getting paid on their next contract. You could argue that Matthews and Marner were getting bank either way, but with Tavares as a team comparable, it made it easy for the duo to point at Tavares and say, there's what we will be getting paid. Look at the other big RFA signings around the league, and only Panarin topped them, and most are well below their price tags. This ends up hurting the team depth, as the cap space shrinks.
• Adding $11 million for one forward, meant $11 million less in cap for depth players, defense and back-up goaltending. If they hadn't signed Tavares (besides whatever less they would have possibly paid Matthews and Marner), this past offseason they could have added, for example, Robin Lehner, Ben Chiarot, and Derrick Brassard (or any other number of solid depth additions.)
• For a team that seems stuck in a morass, Tavares is not the captain to raise them up. He's never been a rah-rah guy, instead letting his play speak for him. That works if you've got the character in the line-up to follow an example, but with such a young team, they either needed a big voice or someone who's been the summit. Tavares is not that guy.
• There's a case to be made that Dubas was playing NHL 20 GM in signing Tavares. Loading up on scorers works in a video game, but in reality, you need role players. You need grinding centers, you need defensively responsible wingers and you need physical defensemen. Dubas apparently just planned to win every game 6-5, and when his planned offense didn't materialize, his team sunk like a stone.

The worst thing about the situation for the Leafs, because of all the long-term, high-dollar contracts, is, there's no clear way out. You either have to sell low on players and set yourself back even more, or pin your hopes on a new coach being able to turn players into something they currently aren't, since the players they need aren't on the roster, and there's no room to add them.

Wow such a great post and well analized. I do agree that without Tavares the team would be much better all round and better depht. Now it's like the team full of individuals. This is team sport. Sad for the Leafs fans that they are still sinking. They had all the right tools and good things going on but im afraid to say that they messed it up for the bad contracts which obviously will affect to the team spirit too. Nylander last year was a good example.

 

[hockeyguru]

definitely not. what lead to the leafs "downfall" is their gm kyle "mickey mouse" dubas

 

[Conspiracy Theorist]

It was their biggest mistake.

 

[Sam Spade]

Tavares was an quality asset, and without the we can and we will talk allow Dubas to trade Nylander(before last season) for defense to balance out the roster.

Much rather sign Tavares than a combo of your listed depth players.

This is exactly how I see it.

When they signed JT I thought it was a good thing, Tavares is really solid steady older player who will lead a young Leafs team. I also thought Nylander would have to be moved because he was a luxury and not a necessity and obviously would be a cap issue soon.

Then Dubas says "we can, we will" and I think he has to be lying.

I mean he kept his word but the balance of the team is just so off now and the obvious answer is to move Nylander. I guess time will tell if Dubas will go back on his statement, but it seems to me like they have no choice. I can guarantee if a new GM comes in Nylander will be the first guy out the door.

 

[Z-Diddy]

You could argue that Matthews and Marner were getting bank either way

Ho! Now hold on just one minute.
Sure, we could fix up Main Street.
We could put all our eggs in one basket.
[ Cheering .]
Shut up! I wasn't done yet.
I'm just saying we could blow all our money on a stupid little street, but-- - [ Cheering, Shouting .]
- [ Groaning .]
Oh! I ain't fer it.
I'm agin it! [ All Chanting .]
Main Street! Main Street! Main Street!

 

[BostonBruins11]

IMO its a huge part of it. 11m could get you a solid top pairing shut down D and a 3rd pairing Shut down D or a defensive 2 way center.

The bigger problem is Dubas ability to evaluate a players defensive capabilities.

His moneyball approach(buying goals) simply doesn't work in hockey.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

sure they have some forwards that are exciting as hell to watch, but the make up of their team is absurd. They need to make some massive changes to fix this team and make them an all around strong team

 

[Henkka]

This discussion is more of keeping JvR and Kadri vs. Tavares + lesser player.

Those meet with 12 million pricetag.

JvR could score same netfront goals which Tavares is doing with a higher pricetag.

Nobody ever talks about JvR leaving and team losing ~30 goals. Only talk is adding Tavares and his ~40 goals.

And these ~20 million salary raises for Matthews and Marner are the biggest factor on the drop in team overall talent. 20 million is missing now from the team before. Who are the current bargains? They were obviously big bargains as ELCs, which created depth elsewhere on the roster.

But for now, they are slightly overpaid, and that leaves no depth elsewhere on the roster. Team is overall worse after all these big contracts.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Wasn’t Judas that gave out the contracts. Mathews and Marner has unprecedented contracts. That’s on the players and GM. Also, the shinny hockey they play is also on the GM. Why not get a Tom Khunackel who can play but also PK and forecheck for cheap?

Also glad that because of Dubas we see the return of the “locker room guy”. Has always been a thing, even if it’s fun to make fun of.

 

[Claypool]

They needed to sign Marner, Matthews and Nylander before a player like Tavares.

 

[Henkka]

Also, it's very interesting, how less of a factor Tavares leaving was for NY Islanders.

Like, NYI direction from high-scoring losing hockey has transferred with Tavares to Toronto and they play better low-scoring, tight-defence winning hockey without him.

He could be part of the problem for Leafs.

 

[bobholly39]

Its really a stupid take tbh

No its not a mistake. They added him for free.

If you want to argue they have too much forwards and the way team is built could be better - fine. But having Tavares increases your trading power vastly. With Tavares - they could trade any of Tavares, Marner or Matthews for a crazy return and still keep the other 2.

Without Tavares - you have less to trade and Marner/Matthews are even more untouchable.

So no - landing Tavares was one of the best free agent signings in the nhl this millenium.

 

[TOGuy14]

IMO its a huge part of it. 11m could get you a solid top pairing shut down D and a 3rd pairing Shut down D or a defensive 2 way center.

The bigger problem is Dubas ability to evaluate a players defensive capabilities.

His moneyball approach(buying goals) simply doesn't work in hockey.

Which top pairing UFA deferenceman has been available to sign since the summer we got Tavares

 

[Empoleon8771]

Signing JT didn't lead to the Leafs downfall, but signing JT and insisting on keeping all of Matthews, Marner and Nylander led to their downfall. It doesn't take a mathematician to realize that you're going to have troubles building a complete team if you have 4 players taking up 50% of your cap.

 

[DarkHorse2]

Adding a Tavares doesn’t start a downfall for anyone and is always a positive add. At worst, it could be argued that they had a potent offence already developing and could’ve used the money elsewhere (Its clear now that Dubas knows very little about assembling a balanced lineup), but that’s a long way from saying it started a downfall.

Isn't "adding a Tavares" the same as "they had a potent offence already developing and could’ve used the money elsewhere" ?

 

[BostonBruins11]

Which top pairing UFA deferenceman has been available to sign since the summer we got Tavares

Kadri+ could of probably landed a decent shutdown D in a trade. To bad he was traded for more offense, something the leafs didn't need.