Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part Xll

[BenedictGomez]

Greene isn't going anywhere.
Our defense would go from bad to terribly horribly awful if we moved Severson. He's arguably been our best defenseman this season.

There's an excellent chance Greene gets moved at the deadline (assuming he wants, NMC), and Severson is the Devils 2nd worst starter defensively (Will Butcher).

 

[MadDevil]

I don't think Greene gets moved. I think that extra year at $5 million probably kills his value. Lovejoy should definitely be moved though. He's got that "good guy in the room with Cup experience" factor that teams are always looking for at the deadline.

Hopefully once he gets moved they can balance the pairings out and both Mueller and Santini can get regular minutes.

 

[GameSeven]

What is the difference between save percentage and expected save percentage?

Expected save percentage is the percentage a goalie would have if they stopped all stoppable goals according to @Bleedred

I kid...

 

[haak84]

An elite team like Tampa which has a much better defense and puck possession numbers will have a higher expected team save % than a crap team like ours. It takes into account amount of high danger and low danger chances (plus other metrics) and gives the goalie an expected save %. Makes sense, no?

Blackwood leads the league in xSV% differential (actual save % - expected save%). Which is highly unsustainable unless he really is great. Kinkaid is around even. Schneider is the worst in the league.

 

[Ripshot 43]

Am I the only one that feels Mueller is better than Santini? Santini has been alright, it’s just that I feel Mueller has the higher ceiling. Really, I think we should be playing more of him, however, the staff does not.

Not sure if better but I think they both should be playing. Santini on the bottom pair and Mueller on the middle. Our goaltending could surely use the defensive minded D.

 

[BahlDeep]

Am I the only one that feels Mueller is better than Santini? Santini has been alright, it’s just that I feel Mueller has the higher ceiling. Really, I think we should be playing more of him, however, the staff does not.

I think Santini has looked really good and poised

 

[FooteBahl]

There's an excellent chance Greene gets moved at the deadline (assuming he wants, NMC), and Severson is the Devils 2nd worst starter defensively (Will Butcher).

He seems pretty embedded in NJ. I would only thing he would agree to go back to Michigan, but they are in worse shape than we are.

 

[Spoiled Bratt]

Greene isn't going anywhere.
Our defense would go from bad to terribly horribly awful if we moved Severson. He's arguably been our best defenseman this season.
Wood isn't going anywhere either. This would be selling very low on him.

Our blueline is horrible and Severson is nowhere near our best dman. Vatanen is our main guy and if we had someone who would be just average on our left side, it would help him out tremendously, but we don’t.

Now we’re asking him to play on the left side in order to slide in Santini in our lineup.

Damon does have value, he’s just not the guy most here are making him out to be... just like Larsson. He’s a smooth skater with a solid first pass but is clueless in his own zone and isn’t much of an offensive threat that you can look the other way when making mistakes in our end.

I know I’ve been bringing this up lately but if we can land someone like Kadri, which would make sense for both teams IMO and go for someone like Tyler Myers (who seems to be available based off their depth chart), it would bring some much needed grit to our soft lineup.

We are wayyyyyy too easy to play against and that needs to be addressed in the offseason. We don’t have one single blueliner that the opposition fears when trying to enter our zone and that’s unexceptionable.

 

[Billdo]

<----- Has never heard of, "expected save percentage", dreads it's going to be just as ridiculous as shot assists.

What the hell is shot assists? The pass before an attempted shot?

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

I don't think Greene gets moved. I think that extra year at $5 million probably kills his value. Lovejoy should definitely be moved though. He's got that "good guy in the room with Cup experience" factor that teams are always looking for at the deadline.

Hopefully once he gets moved they can balance the pairings out and both Mueller and Santini can get regular minutes.

Retain 50% on Greene and there will be interest.

At $2.5m next season is fine for some teams.

I would absolutely do it if the return was a 2nd round pick.

 

[Camille the Eel]

I think Santini has looked really good and poised

Yeah and I’ve been impressed with his skating better than I remembered him doing and also a certain fluid quality to his play. Taking the puck, making a first stride, making a decision all in a motion and he’s off. A little of what we gave up in John Moore and I did not think of Santini at all in that way. Last game first period he missed a tip on a set up down to the right of the opponent’s goal and was battling in the offensive corner. Now you might say “what’s he doing there” (in fact I did) but it opened a new way of my thinking of what he can do.

 

[AgentBrodeur]

on the Hall topic (at least it was yesterday) , we keep him, at all ( reasonable ) costs.

"I myself have accepted the even flows of hockey for this year and stop ranting"

 

[Zippy316]

We arent the smallest team in the league, like i feel some have argued in the past.

Matter of fact the smallest team in the league is the best team in the league.... Tampa Bay.

Tampa has the smallest forward group by far.

But their defenders are all giants. Hedman, Sergachev, McDonagh, Stralman, and Coburn are all 6’0” or larger and can skate.

Our defense is one of the smallest in the league and on the slower side which is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

on the Hall topic (at least it was yesterday) , we keep him, at all ( reasonable ) costs.

"I myself have accepted the even flows of hockey for this year and stop ranting"

We should keep him but if he doesnt resign by the start of next year then you have to trade him and get as much as you can.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Avs fan on the trade board just offered OTT 1st, COL 1st and Jost for Hall

I don't want to trade him either but I Don't know how you can pass that up

 

[JimEIV]

Fans here may not like what they see from Damon...But the coaching staff seems to...He leads the team in 5v5 Ice time by a pretty healthy margin.

Damon Severson 18:33
Sami Vatanen 17:47
Andy Greene 16:57
Mirco Mueller 16:38
Egor Yakovlev 16:14
Taylor Hall 16:14
Will Butcher 15:27
Kyle Palmieri 14:34
Steven Santini 14:26
Nico Hischier 14:19
Travis Zajac 13:54
Ben Lovejoy 13:20
Blake Coleman 13:03
Marcus Johansson 12:59
Miles Wood 12:27
Jesper Bratt 12:19
Pavel Zacha 11:58
Blake Pietila 11:17
Stefan Noesen 11:13
John Quenneville 10:27
Joey Anderson 10:22
Eric Gryba 10:12
Brett Seney 10:11
Drew Stafford 10:09
Jean-Sebastien Dea 9:51
Brian Boyle 8:51
Kevin Rooney 7:46
Kurtis Gabriel 5:50
Michael McLeod 5:32

 

[BahlDeep]

Avs fan on the trade board just offered OTT 1st, COL 1st and Jost for Hall

I don't want to trade him either but I Don't know how you can pass that up

Amazing offer. I think trading Hall would make sense only because if we sign him, we will be paying 10+ milion for a winger on the decline because I don't think we are contenders in the next 3 years and he will be 32-33 by then if that makes sense

 

[OmNomNom]

Amazing offer. I think trading Hall would make sense only because if we sign him, we will be paying 10+ milion for a winger on the decline because I don't think we are contenders in the next 3 years and he will be 32-33 by then if that makes sense

hall isn't some scrub player though. and i think the decline narrative isn't really accurate, mostly because he's a gamer who can still bring us up a huge step over the next few years. 32-33 isn't THAT old, especially for an elite talent.

jost isn't seeming to be anything particular special (points wise), and i'm pretty sure fans are sick of trying to invest in the future. the offer would need to be more, IMO. sens 1st is great, but COL's? nah....

now, if hall isn't willing to re-sign here, on the other hand......

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

my idea would be (That I posted yesterday) if we got OTT 1st/COL 1st, we would then package 2 of our 3 firsts in a deal for a legit LHD

 

[BenedictGomez]

What the hell is shot assists? The pass before an attempted shot?

Believe it or not, yes.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Fans here may not like what they see from Damon...But the coaching staff seems to

Correct; I point this out all the time.

Hynes never benches Severson (not once this season), and frankly, if Severson isnt getting benched today after that last game, it's never going to happen.

Meanwhile, Santini or Mueller can misplay a 2 on 1 situation one time and they'll end up in the witness relocation program.

 

[JimEIV]

Another interesting thing...Damon's GA\60 5v5 has come down a lot recently...He was over 4 and the worst among the Defense...When you consider Severson plays significantly more than anyone else the on the team 5v5 this is pretty good in relationship to the team ...And it is even better when you realize it has come down a 1/2 goal per game.

Yakolev 4.4
Santini 3.8
Vatanen 3.7
Severson 3.6
Greeene 3.3
Mueller 2.9
Butcher 2.8
Lovejoy 2.4

 

[Scooooooooooooot]

Avs fan on the trade board just offered OTT 1st, COL 1st and Jost for Hall

I don't want to trade him either but I Don't know how you can pass that up

oh my...

 

[JimEIV]

Correct; I point this out all the time.

Hynes never benches Severson (not once this season), and frankly, if Severson isnt getting benched after last game, it's never going to happen.

Meanwhile, Santini or Mueller can misplay a 2 on 1 and they'll end up in the witness relocation program.

Mueller doesn't work for this team wants to do. It is really that simply.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Another interesting thing...Damon's GA\60 5v5 has come down a lot recently...He was over 4 and the worst among the Defense...When you consider Severson plays significantly more than anyone else the on the team 5v5 this is pretty good in relationship to the team

I hate to berate this point, but you make this same mathematical error whenever ES GA/60 comes up. It's a ratio.


EDIT: Though yes, Severson's came down and Vatanen's went up recently. Vatanen has been playing poorly, and it's concerning. Not enough Santini/Yak data there to really analyze yet.