Devils 2018-19 team discussion (news and notes) - part Xll

[Cage Helmet]

It depends. They might want to wait a year before buying Cory out and I honestly doubt they can get away with hiding him on IR.

It depends if they bring in another goalie who can actually start (barring Blackwood just taking the job himself with a strong second half).

If they bring back cory and a scrub then yeah that is a tank move unless some voodoo was cast in Cory’s hip.

I didn’t mean tanking but I think it will depend on if Shero sees us as a possible playoff team next year or a likely miss. I believe if he sees the 2019-2020 NJD as a possible or expected playoff club then Schneids is probably out. If he sees the 19-20 squad as still not being quite there yet he may try to hold on just a little bit longer on putting Schneids out.

 

[NJDevs26]

But Kinkaid played 27 out of the 34 games after the All-Star break last season and played great. I'm not saying I expected him to be great this season, but I certainly expected better than this.

Getting nothing at all out of Schneider was not the organization's expectation, certainly.

It's fair to say both goalies have been wildly dissapointing this year relative to expectations which weren't even that outrageous, although in KK's case people forgot he was horrible till February LAST year because the last two months were so scintillating.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

he's not.

Probably the second best, though, which is scary.

 

[Bleedred]

I didn’t mean tanking but I think it will depend on if Shero sees us as a possible playoff team next year or a likely miss. I believe if he sees the 2019-2020 NJD as a possible or expected playoff club then Schneids is probably out. If he sees the 19-20 squad as still not being quite there yet he may try to hold on just a little bit longer on putting Schneids out.

In that case, I think if Cory is brought back next year, one more start like this and he'll probably be thrown in the AHL before being bought out at the end of next year, and I don't think he'll get as many games either. He'll likely be thrown in the minors faster than the Hurricanes threw Scott Darling in the AHL this year. He might not even 5 games if he has another start like he did to this year. Especially if he comes back again this year and continues to bomb. I think if he continues to bomb, that increases the chances of him not being back next year, which I think are already very high that he's not.

 

[Bleedred]

But Kinkaid played 27 out of the 34 games after the All-Star break last season and played great. I'm not saying I expected him to be great this season, but I certainly expected better than this.

Getting nothing at all out of Schneider was not the organization's expectation, certainly.

Classic case of backup tender going on a hot streak and playing over their head. Happened to Scott Clemmensen with the NJD when Marty was injured and Hedberg had a pretty hot run in 2011 albeit shorter than KK’s last year. And then when it was repeated by Hedberg in 2013 the results were not duplicated. I bet if KK played a backup role this year he would probably have been playing around his career norm.

And in more recent non-Devils history, the legendary Andrew Hammond.

And in general backup fashion, they tend to fluctuate from year to year and I took heat for saying this like a year ago, but I think Kinkaid is closer to a guy like Chad Johnson, Al Montoya, Thomas Greiss, Jonathan Bernier, etc. Look at these goalies from year to year. Their play fluctuates, sometimes very wildly from year to year.

 

[Bleedred]

It's fair to say both goalies have been wildly dissapointing this year relative to expectations which weren't even that outrageous, although in KK's case people forgot he was horrible till February LAST year because the last two months were so scintillating.

Which is why I said he wouldn't be in the NHL next year, meaning this year.

And if we had missed the playoffs and he didn't turn it around, I think he gets buried in the AHL this year, while Shero tried to upgrade on him, probably by signing Jonathan Bernier (who has been terrible this year on eye test and save percentage also) or someone like that.

But as I said, it's very unlikely he finishes like he did last year at this point because when he had an .897% save percentage a year ago on this date, he had only played 11 games up to that point of the season. He wound up playing another almost 30 games after that. He played almost every game for the rest of the season after that, as Cory was injured a couple weeks later, then came back and played 4 or 5 disastrous games before getting permanently benched and Appleby did start one game in there.

So for Kinkaid to even finish with a .913% this year, he'd have to do better than .930% the rest of the way if he played 20 more games this year. As I calculated earlier, 20 more games played while playing .930% goaltending and averaging 30 shots per game would bring him up .911% on the season. 20 more games of .920% goaltending averaging 30 shots per game would bring him up to .907% this season, when adding what he's already done the previous 32 games.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

I think there's about an 80% chance Cory doesn't play here after this year. That 80% likely decreases by a lot if Cory is injured in the offseason (like he was this past offseason) and not cleared for a buyout, but also not hurt enough for it to be a permanent LTIR situation.

They probably have too much respect for him to throw him in the AHL long term and I don't disagree with that. The human aspect would have me not wanting to do that and having him separated from his family or having to relocate them. It also gives him a chance to get work from some other team and I think an NHL team will sign him to a one year deal to be the backup (maybe compete for the starter job if it's a bad team like Vancouver or someone that doesn't plan to compete just yet) because of who he used to be, like Chicago did with Cam Ward, but I think next year is likely his last year in the NHL if that happens.

Only difference between buying him out this summer and next summer is not having a 2mil caphit in 2024-25

 

[Bleedred]

Only difference between buying him out this summer and next summer is not having a 2mil caphit in 2024-25

If we bought him out this year, the cap hit would be $2 million for the next 6 years.

If we buy him out after next year, the cap hit would be $2 million for the next 4 years? Correct?

So in the end, I think you're right. It only takes away one year of a $2 million buyout hit if we wait until next year. Technically it takes away 2 years, but one of the years we'd have the buyout cap hit would be spent with him on the roster.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

If we bought him out this year, the cap hit would be $2 million for the next 6 years.

If we buy him out after next year, the cap hit would be $2 million for the next 4 years? Correct?

So in the end, I think you're right. It only takes away one year of a $2 million buyout hit if we wait until next year. Technically it takes away 2 years, but one of the years we'd have the buyout cap hit would be spent with him on the roster.

Exactly

Now I wont downplay that 2mil in 2024-25 if we did it this year, but I think its a minor deal

 

[Devil X]

We arent the smallest team in the league, like i feel some have argued in the past.

Matter of fact the smallest team in the league is the best team in the league.... Tampa Bay.

 

[Bleedred]

Exactly

Now I wont downplay that 2mil in 2024-25 if we did it this year, but I think its a minor deal

This is my rationale on it.

I don't care about getting rid of his $6 million cap hit for next year so much. It's not about saving cap space, as much as it's about shedding the roster of a bad player and a bad player at the most important position and Cory of 2019 is absolutely not a good player anymore. I would say he's a bad player. He may not be as bad as he's been this year or the end of the regular season last year, which would be unserviceable at the NHL level. He may be a serviceable goalie still if we played him a little more and gave him a longer look, but he's not a good one. That's why I say he could go on a .920% run or something, but it would just bring his overall numbers to the mean of what they've been the last 2+ years, which is a .903% goalie and that's bad. The goalies that maintain .903% for 100 games usually fall out of the NHL by that point. He's like Marty by 2014 at the very best and he may be even worse than that. Did we want Marty back after that?

It's like getting rid of Cammalleri or Zubrus. Both were bad players (Cammalleri still had a bit left, but not much and he wasn't even signed this offseason) by that point, more than needing cap space. If we could buy out Cammalleri, I don't see why we wouldn't buy out Schneider, outside of the fact that Cammalleri had one fewer year remaining and made a million or so less per.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

he's not.

Yeah it’s probably the guy you say sucks every game or the other guy you say sucks every game or the guy that can’t crack the lineup.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

We arent the smallest team in the league, like i feel some have argued in the past.

Matter of fact the smallest team in the league is the best team in the league.... Tampa Bay.

I brought this point up over teh summer when someone told me Tampa beat us because they were grittier or something

no, they beat us because they have a much better roster

 

[haak84]

league average save % is .910. the expected save % for the devils is around .905. not to say goaltending hasnt been a problem. but this is a bad team where nearly everyone has underperformed. come on people. how many blowouts and how many road losses with no shows in the second period do we need to see?

last year this team had timely goals and big saves this year it has untimely breakdowns and softies.

unfortunately, goaltending is unlikely to improve unless blackwood is the real deal. sad state of affairs.

 

[Cage Helmet]

Am I the only one that feels Mueller is better than Santini? Santini has been alright, it’s just that I feel Mueller has the higher ceiling. Really, I think we should be playing more of him, however, the staff does not.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

We arent the smallest team in the league, like i feel some have argued in the past.

Matter of fact the smallest team in the league is the best team in the league.... Tampa Bay.

problem is Tampa Bays defense is pretty damn big IIRC, which is the major plus

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

league average save % is .910. the expected save % for the devils is around .905. not to say goaltending hasnt been a problem. but this is a bad team where nearly everyone has underperformed. come on people. how many blowouts and how many road losses with no shows in the second period do we need to see?

last year this team had timely goals and big saves this year it has untimely breakdowns and softies.

unfortunately, goaltending is unlikely to improve unless blackwood is the real deal. sad state of affairs.

what is expected save %??

Our save % for our two STARTERS (Blackwood aint that yet) is sub-.900, so idk what stat cherry-picks us being closer to average but it aint that

 

[mtnet]

That ranking probably gets a little help from Boyle and Blackwood

 

[Bleedred]

what is expected save %??

Our save % for our two STARTERS (Blackwood aint that yet) is sub-.900, so idk what stat cherry-picks us being closer to average but it aint that

I've counted 41 stoppable goals between Schneider and Kinkaid.

41 stoppable goals. They've allowed 122 between the two of them.

Does that mean all 41 of those should have been stopped? Absolutely not. Does that mean if 12-16 of them were stopped we'd have more points/wins? Probably.

The games where the goalies have cost us points aren't even the blowouts. They're those games like the Vegas one the other night where Kinkaid allows 2 questionable goals and we lose 3-2. The game where he gave up at least 2 poor ones against Washington, which we only lost 6-3 due to 2 empty net goals. The Nashville game early in the year where he allowed 3 poor goals on 4 total and we lost in OT.

Then for Cory, the Anaheim game, possibly the second TBL game and the Detroit game that was his first start of the season. We lost that one 4-3 but the game winner was scored on an empty netter because Johansson scored a last few seconds goal and made it 4-3. Bad goaltending actually hurts you more in the 3-2 losses than it does in the 5-1 losses.

Kinkaid also is damn near the league lead in my stoppable goal count and it's not like he's been up there all year long. He was around average up until early to mid December. He and Henrik Lundqvist have both shot up the ranks more than almost anybody since December started. Corey Crawford was also shooting up there before injury.

 

[mtnet]

Can't recall seeing a goalie fall as far and as fast as Cory did. Keith is good for shorter stretches at times but got burned out on overuse. Bunch of no shows and blowouts and eventually a trust deficit took hold out on the ice. Skaters leery of our netminders and our goalies feeling hung to dry all too often on heinous turnovers and poorly defended rushes.

Two low points that really stick out in net were the start of Cory's game vs. canes and Keith's vs. CBJ recently. The team had breakdowns right off the bat but didn't the first two shots of both games end up in the back of our net? I kind of remember Keith letting in a horrid soft backhand for the 3rd against in the CBJ game too. It was a breakaway (by Panarin maybe) but the shot was kind of a limp backhander.

Kinkaid at that point looked like he wanted out of net and I can't really blame him. I was at the game and I remember the home crowd cheering the goalie change, which looks bad considering KK made a super respectable run to eek us into the postseason last year.

I think Blackwood looked so poised in relief and for a few games as starter in part because he didn't have the weight of the big club's awful performance this year hanging on him...not that Bing is a picnic. He was just thrilled to have an opportunity and he's matured a lot so he could just play his game. Most of the team had already been in a malaise for some time before he was called up but visibly perked up in front of MBW for the most part, trust momentarily restored all around.

Honesty Keith deserves better but he's been pretty awful lately and there's no sugar coating that unfortunately. Circumstances are what they are...they don't think it be like it is, but it do.

 

[NjDevsRR]

What is the difference between save percentage and expected save percentage?

 

[Stephen Gionta]

You're kidding yourself if you think Hynes isn't a problem. IDK how anyone can watch this team and think his coaching is not a problem.

Great, he talks a good game and can motivate. That worked well for one season, and still nearly failed because he sucks at the Xs & Os part of the game that matter more.

He is an idiot with who he hired as his assistants. He takes too long to finally make adjustments.

He's a bad head coach.

Okay, what would you want to see out of a "good" head coach then?

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Greene, Severson, and Wood.

Greene isn't going anywhere.
Our defense would go from bad to terribly horribly awful if we moved Severson. He's arguably been our best defenseman this season.
Wood isn't going anywhere either. This would be selling very low on him.

 

[BenedictGomez]

What is the difference between save percentage and expected save percentage?

<----- Has never heard of, "expected save percentage", dreads it's going to be just as ridiculous as shot assists.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Am I the only one that feels Mueller is better than Santini? Santini has been alright, it’s just that I feel Mueller has the higher ceiling. Really, I think we should be playing more of him, however, the staff does not.

I dont think either one of them are bad, and I know both Mueller & Santini should be playing more for development. They'd both be in my starting 6 were I the coach.