Confirmed with Link: Derek Grant obtained from Anaheim for Criscuolo + 4th

[Appleyard]

Braun has improved Robert Hagg's game tremendously. I don't understand why so many folks on this board don't seem to like Braun or Hagg, they have both seem to be playing better than Gostisbehere.

I would say most have been very happy with Braun... he has done a great job as a ~#5 Dman and like Niskanen looks re-invigorated and the player he was ~2 years ago.

Good at his own blue-line, can still skate, channels opponents well, and while his hands are not that good generally can make a play if needed to get simple passes up ice instead of hammering it off the boards, icing it, or giving it to opponents with speed in the NZ.

 

[Curufinwe]

Braun is playing a lot less than he did for the Sharks, as well. AV isn't a chicken shit, so he didn't overplay him ahead of Myers.

Just two years ago Hak was starting Brandon Manning over Sanheim.

 

[Young Sandwich]

Going from 4C in Anaheim to 2LW in Philly seems like an odd move, though.

Maybe he's going to play 3C?

Laughton-Grant-Pitlick
Raffl-Thompson-NAK

If Chuck brought him in specifically to play 2LW, he should get his head examined. I'm assuming there'll be a feeling out process by AV to see which of his "roles" Grant can fill. Seems like Thompson's role is undoubtedly 4C.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Out of curiosity, what was the highest level you played at?

Junior A league in Sask.

 

[VladDrag]

Junior A league in Sask.

Do you believe that playing this level gives you inherently more insight to the game? And, if so why?

I'm asking very seriously.

 

[Fight4yourRight]

Do you believe that playing this level gives you inherently more insight to the game? And, if so why?

I'm asking very seriously.

I’m not sure what level you played yourself. The original poster I quoted, claimed on several occasions that icing tough players that play with an edge wouldn’t do a thing to protect skill players, despite some of the best players who have ever played saying otherwise.

He now asserted, based on Corsi alone, that Grant has next to no value, without acknowledging any context, (including d-zone starts/usage). It’s the kind of lazy assessments that are becoming more common for guys who don’t actually watch games outside of the Flyers, but still want to open their mouth and make themselves feel they have something important to add.

There is a select amount of intangibles you learn from playing the game, watching the game, and learning from playing with other players. As the level goes up, so increase the nuances. I’m just so very sick and tired of seeing stand alone Corsi assessments. Hagg has also been on the receiving end lately.

If you played the game, you should respect to some degree anyone playing at the highest level. Everyone brings something to the table, otherwise they wouldn’t be there. To call them out on Corsi alone is quite pathetic.

 

[DancingPanther]

Sure, there's a lot of context needed to be added to Grant. He's had legitimately tough usage. The ZS are indeed skewed, but the biggest part of this by far is his Linemates. He did get a good bunch of Minutes with Lindholm and/or Fowler which helps, but he's also been stapled to Nick Deslauriers. That's a serious drag on anyone.

At this point, possession models are mostly low-hanging fruit. For as much fun as some people like to poke at them, this is how most NHL teams are increasingly making decisions. Fletcher is not an idiot. I don't believe that the guy who brought Andrew Thomas and Alex Mandrycky (war-on-ice.com founders) into the NHL is completely unaware of what should be base level knowledge by now. Grant is historically a mild net positive possession player who happened to hit terrible usage and a Shooting heater this year. Betting on him to turn his possession metrics around makes complete sense. Hell, since HC was kind enough to record the STH Q&A for us, we got to hear Fletcher politely guiding someone away from Corsi and toward xGF models for player evaluation. He's aware and he uses their in-house version frequently. It will lead them to different conclusions and we should allow some wiggle room here because the margins you think other teams don't have are where you should be looking.

The issue comes in when people point to 14 Goals as proof of expectations going forward. He scored those Goals in the past. They can be responsibly used descriptively. They are not in any way predictive when done in the manner that he's gone about getting them. This isn't exclusive to Derek Grant or Robert Hagg or anyone else. It's often coaches who don't understand and/or leverage this area well. I'm sure they each have moderate input on the other's decisions, but I think it's reasonable to assert that it was Fletcher's call to send Farabee down and it will be Vigneault's call who is on Hayes' wing tonight. If it's JVR, I dislike the way they've gone about these things a little less. If it's Grant, it fits a past concerning Vigneault pattern and worries me more.

I also have major problems with "well (other team's) fans think X" because that is overwhelmingly quoted when the opinions are positive and dismissed when they're negative. Accept both or accept none. I'm fine with either.

Perhaps he could turn it around as you mentioned, but it sure isn't going to be on Philly's middle 6 like some tweets have threatened, as has the past AV pattern like you mentioned.

I hear and understand the points that some have made about his usage, but when you churn out numbers that aren't just below average but overwhelmingly poor it concerns me.

 

[Appleyard]

Perhaps he could turn it around as you mentioned, but it sure isn't going to be on Philly's middle 6 like some tweets have threatened, as has the past AV pattern like you mentioned.

I hear and understand the points that some have made about his usage, but when you churn out numbers that aren't just below average but overwhelmingly poor it concerns me.

However, the last 2 years before this his relative numbers were "fine" in a more limited role... and he was actually scoring more at 5v5 too, at a good 3rd line rate. He does a fair amount of things right too when focus in on him on ice... and his microstats are solid too over career.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[deadhead]

It's often coaches who don't understand and/or leverage this area well. I'm sure they each have moderate input on the other's decisions, but I think it's reasonable to assert that it was Fletcher's call to send Farabee down and it will be Vigneault's call who is on Hayes' wing tonight. If it's JVR, I dislike the way they've gone about these things a little less. If it's Grant, it fits a past concerning Vigneault pattern and worries me more.

I also have major problems with "well (other team's) fans think X" because that is overwhelmingly quoted when the opinions are positive and dismissed when they're negative. Accept both or accept none. I'm fine with either.

I think adding Grant and Thompson was Fletcher giving AV what he wanted (not the specific players, that's up to the GM, but size and experience at forward).

Sending Farabee down is merely opening a spot to play both Grant and Thompson for a few games so AV can get a feel how he wants to use them - the cost in picks and money is so low the FO is not committed to either player.

Bringing Farabee back is a phone call and a two hour drive, so it's not like the days when the Phantoms were in the wilds of NY State.

Had they traded a 1st for Goodrow, that would be a different story.
His pp/60 last three seasons, 1.70 (47g), 1.02, 1.29.
Grant 1.85, 1.46, 1.34.

 

[DancingPanther]

However, the last 2 years before this his relative numbers were "fine" in a more limited role... and he was actually scoring more at 5v5 too, at a good 3rd line rate. He does a fair amount of things right too when focus in on him on ice... and his microstats are solid too over career.

Much better than "ducks fans like him"

If he normalizes on the Flyers I'll be happy. Needless to say. We definitely needed a 4C upgrade. I'm just worried he's going to see minutes he shouldn't be seeing, especially with a hole on 2W now that Farabee got the axe.

It's pretty clear he's unable to handle good competition. Perhaps better linemates will/would do him justice as JoJo alluded to but, frankly, in the thick of the metro/eastern conference playoff race I'm not very willing to "try it out" in the last 1/4 of the season, risking team detriment

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I think adding Grant and Thompson was Fletcher giving AV what he wanted (not the specific players, that's up to the GM, but size and experience at forward).

Sending Farabee down is merely opening a spot to play both Grant and Thompson for a few games so AV can get a feel how he wants to use them - the cost in picks and money is so low the FO is not committed to either player.

This makes so much more sense to me than the "Vigneault wants Frost and Farabee" rallying cry. This is usually how coaches think.

 

[Johnk0728]

I’m not sure what level you played yourself. The original poster I quoted, claimed on several occasions that icing tough players that play with an edge wouldn’t do a thing to protect skill players, despite some of the best players who have ever played saying otherwise.

He now asserted, based on Corsi alone, that Grant has next to no value, without acknowledging any context, (including d-zone starts/usage). It’s the kind of lazy assessments that are becoming more common for guys who don’t actually watch games outside of the Flyers, but still want to open their mouth and make themselves feel they have something important to add.

There is a select amount of intangibles you learn from playing the game, watching the game, and learning from playing with other players. As the level goes up, so increase the nuances. I’m just so very sick and tired of seeing stand alone Corsi assessments. Hagg has also been on the receiving end lately.

If you played the game, you should respect to some degree anyone playing at the highest level. Everyone brings something to the table, otherwise they wouldn’t be there. To call them out on Corsi alone is quite pathetic.

A-f***ing-men! If the Corsi-loving crowd doesn't think a player who runs players has no affect on a hockey game than they are nuts. The last playoff series the Flyers were in; the Caps number one objective was to eliminate #14. They ran him till Ovechkin broke him. When the Flyers beat the Pens way back when; it was due to the Flyers starting crap after every whistle & making Malkin get stupid. That stuff is not measured in CORSI etc. Some players fade when the game gets rough. Look at JVR; come playoff time lets see how much time he is in front of the net versus a game in Jan. His glides will start closer and closer to the red line. The game has been toned down. But playoff games are still physical to an extent and you better know who is on the ice at all times. Because guys like Wilson or Brooks Orpik in the past will take the suspension if it means knocking #28 or #14 out of the series. That element is still in the game. Controlled entries or not.....

 

[deadhead]

So how did Tampa Bay and Toronto do in last year's playoffs.
Oodles of offensive talent.
Or why TB has been trying to get more physical in their forward group this season.

 

[wasup]

A-f*cking-men! If the Corsi-loving crowd doesn't think a player who runs players has no affect on a hockey game than they are nuts. The last playoff series the Flyers were in; the Caps number one objective was to eliminate #14. They ran him till Ovechkin broke him. When the Flyers beat the Pens way back when; it was due to the Flyers starting crap after every whistle & making Malkin get stupid. That stuff is not measured in CORSI etc. Some players fade when the game gets rough. Look at JVR; come playoff time lets see how much time he is in front of the net versus a game in Jan. His glides will start closer and closer to the red line. The game has been toned down. But playoff games are still physical to an extent and you better know who is on the ice at all times. Because guys like Wilson or Brooks Orpik in the past will take the suspension if it means knocking #28 or #14 out of the series. That element is still in the game. Controlled entries or not.....

You have to remember it's the internet and all these fancy stats graphs etc ... are readily avaliable at the click of a button . To watch players play several games takes way to much time or we do not have avaliability of the games to watch .

There are so many different factors to be taken into building a successful team and lots on here just like the fancy stuff and refuse to accept the fact that the rule's change come playoffs .
All in all this board is not a disaster at all , but all these fancy stats etc ... are just that and need to be taken into context more often than not .

 

[FLYguy3911]

Weird that the same GM drafted a 170 pound defenseman in the first round last year. Doesn't he know about playoff hockey?

And traded up to draft a 5'8 160 pound winger.

 

[deadhead]

And drafted a 6'3 207 lb D-man in the 3rd rd.
And is trying to sign his 6'2 205 PF out of college.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If it's in the game, you can measure it in some way. If you can't find any way of doing so, it probably doesn't have much impact on the scoreboard or at the very least, isn't actionable information.

 

[Curufinwe]

You have to remember it's the internet and all these fancy stats graphs etc ... are readily avaliable at the click of a button . To watch players play several games takes way to much time or we do not have avaliability of the games to watch .

There are so many different factors to be taken into building a successful team and lots on here just like the fancy stuff and refuse to accept the fact that the rule's change come playoffs .
All in all this board is not a disaster at all , but all these fancy stats etc ... are just that and need to be taken into context more often than not .

This one should hurt anyone's feelings. It's Pens fans being very meh about getting Hainsey for a 2nd. He went on to play on the top pairing of their 2017 Cup winning team.

Confirmed with Link: - Penguins acquire Ron Hainsey (50% retained) from Carolina for a 2nd and Kristo

 

[deadhead]

Some people here have angst about every move.
The worst that happens, Grant and Thompson totally flop and we're back where we started and lost a 4th and 5th rd pick.

Now how about trading a 1st and 2nd for Pageau and then giving him 6 years at $5M for a 3C, starting at 28 years old.
At least TB got a 3rd rd pick (ours) back for giving a 1st rd pick for Goodrow

Odds are neither is much of an upgrade over Grant as a 3C.
pp/60 last three seasons:
Pageau, 1.30, 1.29, 1.47
Goodrow, 1.70, 1.02, 1.29
Grant, 1.85, 1.42, 1.34

 

[Larry44]

And drafted a 6'3 207 lb D-man in the 3rd rd.
And is trying to sign his 6'2 205 PF out of college.

You need a balance of speed/skill and size/toughness to win at hockey, just like every other sport. The Flyers have lots of 'big' guys who aren't physical, so they needed some more jam for the inevitably tough playoff run and matches. Having Grant and Thompson to go with Farabee and Frost gives AV options, depending on the opponent. I like Bunnaman and Vorobyev, but it looks like they are going to try to win something this year. If Patrick can come back and in form, and Hart holds his own, this team will be a tough out for anyone in the East.

 

[TB87]

If a player can provide some added value on the margins, whether it be via shot attempt generation/suppression, in transition, pre-shot movement, or in any other area of the game.....gimme that player on my team. Any possible advantage that can be gained over the opposition is a positive. Winning the shot attempts battle has value, suppressing shot attempts against has value, winning battles has value, deception on the breakout and on entries has value, suppressing shot attempts against on the PK has value, etc.


The thing I've noticed with folks who dismiss corsi as valuable info say so because to them it doesn't take into account context. When this group gets presented with said context, they tend to bewail the context as not essential or valuable. So, it seems to me, that the context being asked for is more about their individual preferred context, not the context that is publicly available and that is shared on this board (& elsewhere on the internet).


EvolvingWild's RAPM: Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

&

Micah Blake McCurdy's Isolate Shot Impact metrics: Model Description: Magnus 2


both take into account multiple contextual factors.


If context is your king, you'll find it there. I did the work for you. You're welcome!





A POV that drives me nuts and makes no sense: "Actually watch the games you nerd!"
I dont know anyone who only follows their favorite hockey team by perusing NaturalStatTrick after the game to see what the 5v5 metrics are (& doesn't actually watch the games). Can anyone explain that POV? It operates under an inane assumption that's profoundly odd.



Speaking for myself, I watch a ton of hockey. Probably too much. But it's my life so eat my shorts. If there is a disconnect between what I'm seeing and the metrics (or vice-versa), that intrigues me and makes me want to investigate further. Gimme all possible information so I can make an informed critique of a team, player, coach, etc.

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't think Vorobyev's an NHL option again for them this year. But next year he should get another chance. He's actually had a very good AHL season.

 

[deadhead]

The problem with Vorobyev is he's had three shots and didn't show much improvement.
He's 23, so he'll probably get one more year (if he returns) but given organizational depth, time is running out.
Strikes me as another tweener, lacks the energy for 4C, lacks the skill to win a 3C job.
It's a shame, b/c he has the size and vision to be a solid center, but something has been lacking.

Kase also just turned 23, but his injury history and the flashes he shown make him to me a better NHL candidate.

 

[Striiker]

There are legitimate ways to defend moves like this, but way too many of the defenses in this thread are just awful dinosaur logic...