Confirmed with Link: Derek Grant obtained from Anaheim for Criscuolo + 4th

[deadhead]

EvolvingWild's RAPM: Reviving Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus for Hockey

Check the D-zone and O-zone maps, seems these are impactful.

 

[bennysflyers16]

Junior A league in Sask.

What team ?

 

[Tripod]

A-f*cking-men! If the Corsi-loving crowd doesn't think a player who runs players has no affect on a hockey game than they are nuts. The last playoff series the Flyers were in; the Caps number one objective was to eliminate #14. They ran him till Ovechkin broke him. When the Flyers beat the Pens way back when; it was due to the Flyers starting crap after every whistle & making Malkin get stupid. That stuff is not measured in CORSI etc. Some players fade when the game gets rough. Look at JVR; come playoff time lets see how much time he is in front of the net versus a game in Jan. His glides will start closer and closer to the red line. The game has been toned down. But playoff games are still physical to an extent and you better know who is on the ice at all times. Because guys like Wilson or Brooks Orpik in the past will take the suspension if it means knocking #28 or #14 out of the series. That element is still in the game. Controlled entries or not.....

That's a very passionate post.

Of course it's factually wrong because the last playoff series the Flyers were in, was against Pittsburgh. And it was Gudas who ran Couts.....in practice.

The year you are referring to, Couturier got hurt in game 1, 12 minutes into the 2nd period. They didn't grind him down for 3/4 games then break him. He got hit and was unlucky to get hurt from it.

But it IS true, that getting hit...or rather getting hit hard doesn't show up on a spreadsheet. It doesn't show that you often rush passes in anticipation of getting hit. Or that after getting hit repeatedly, you fatigue more. You get sore. You make more mistakes.

Now in saying that, all indications are that Grant isn't that hitter either. We is not a Wilson or Wood who often hit to hurt. He finishes his checks and will keep guys heads up. On the receiving end, he doesn't spin away from checks or avoids them either. He will take the hit to make the play. And that's what you want come playoff time.

I want to see what Ducks fans see in this guy to want him to come back to them next year. Most couldn't wait to get rid of our depth guys in years past, and Habs fans are meh on losing Thompson. But Ducks fans wanted him re-signed instead of trading him and still want him back next year. Let's see why.

 

[deadhead]

A POV that drives me nuts and makes no sense: "Actually watch the games you nerd!"
I dont know anyone who only follows their favorite hockey team by perusing NaturalStatTrick after the game to see what the 5v5 metrics are (& doesn't actually watch the games). Can anyone explain that POV? It operates under an inane assumption that's profoundly odd.

I check NST after games to check on what I thought I saw, because I'm watching a game, not taking notes on every shift - NST is a quick and dirty summary.
But it's not a replacement for watching games.

Given that the various models give different results, robustness is a serious issue with hockey models.
Which isn't to say they're useless, rather, the results of any one model should be taken with a grain of salt.

And the models can influence outcomes, I think some teams misunderstood Corsi and engaged in strategies to raise their shot totals, which then made Corsi less valuable.

 

[Striiker]

Grant has 44 hits this year. That would put him 13th on the team, 2 ahead of Giroux.

That'll really wear down the opponents.

 

[deadhead]

It may seem counter-intuitive, but taking hits is as much part of physical play as giving hits.

The players tough enough to take hits to keep puck possession (instead of shying away and letting the forechecker gain possession) have substantial value, especially protecting a lead. Braun and Provorov are both good at that, though Provorov is able to both get the puck and avoid the hit b/c of his great anticipation and athleticism.

 

[Foggy14]

According to twitter he's been promoted to the 2nd line since Farabee was sent down

Going from 4C in Anaheim to 2LW in Philly seems like an odd move, though.

Maybe he's going to play 3C?

Laughton-Grant-Pitlick
Raffl-Thompson-NAK

According to Charlie O, Curu is right and Grant is slotted into the 3C spot for tonight with Laughton taking the spot on Hayes' LW (which is another conversation we can have).

Look, I like Grant. I've seen him a fair bit in person and on screens.

A lot of Ducks fans out here like Grant.

He's a good 4th line option and Alex's numbers help explain why.

But this "Grant as a potential 2nd line winger" and "Grant versus Farabee" and "Grant as a 3C option" is just setting him up for failure, in my view.

Grant is popular out here because he's League minimum underdog who has fought hard and done reasonably well on the Ducks 4th line.

Grant isn't a 2nd line player, or even a 3rd line center, on the League's 4th worst team. Why would he suddenly be a 2nd, or 3rd, line guy on the 8th best team?

 

[DancingPanther]

I check NST after games to check on what I thought I saw, because I'm watching a game, not taking notes on every shift - NST is a quick and dirty summary.
But it's not a replacement for watching games.

Given that the various models give different results, robustness is a serious issue with hockey models.
Which isn't to say they're useless, rather, the results of any one model should be taken with a grain of salt.

And the models can influence outcomes, I think some teams misunderstood Corsi and engaged in strategies to raise their shot totals, which then made Corsi less valuable.

Homie, there's legitimate r sq values associated with these models that essentially quantify robustness.

Nothing is perfect, but models with high r sq values intrinsically aren't to be "taken with a grain of salt" (which by the way is another way to say useless) unless you don't believe in math. But, I'll be the first to admit they shouldn't be taken as gospel either. In addition to a reliable eye for the game, these models can seriously paint a great picture of what is happening and what could happen in the future. It's just more information to use to make a conclusion.

Do you look at weather radar? That's based on prediction models with some magnitude of robustness that doesn't equal 100%. Sometimes that's wrong too.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

According to Charlie O, Curu is right and Grant is slotted into the 3C spot for tonight with Laughton taking the spot on Hayes' LW (which is another conversation we can have).

Look, I like Grant. I've seen him a fair bit in person and on screens.

A lot of Ducks fans out here like Grant.

He's a good 4th line option and Alex's numbers help explain why.

But this "Grant as a potential 2nd line winger" and "Grant versus Farabee" and "Grant as a 3C option" is just setting him up for failure, in my view.

Grant is popular out here because he's League minimum underdog who has fought hard and done reasonably well on the Ducks 4th line.

Grant isn't a 2nd line player, or even a 3rd line center, on the League's 4th worst team. Why would he suddenly be a 2nd, or 3rd, line guy on the 8th best team?

I imagine he’ll end up a 4th line wing, but they are seeing how he looks at 3C because they like Laughton better at wing if possible.

 

[wasup]

What team ?

Maybe it's the Flin Flon Bombers baby !!!

 

[deadhead]

Homie, there's legitimate r sq values associated with these models that essentially quantify robustness.

Nothing is perfect, but models with high r sq values intrinsically aren't to be "taken with a grain of salt" (which by the way is another way to say useless) unless you don't believe in math. But, I'll be the first to admit they shouldn't be taken as gospel either. In addition to a reliable eye for the game, these models can seriously paint a great picture of what is happening and what could happen in the future. It's just more information to use to make a conclusion.

Do you look at weather radar? That's based on prediction models with some magnitude of robustness that doesn't equal 100%. Sometimes that's wrong too.

I've been reading econometric and cliometric articles for 40 years.
R sq has some value, significance tests have some value, but beware of spurious correlations.

Robustness is a check on models, if different models of the same phenomena have parameter results that vary by a significant amount, either one or all models are wrong, but all models can't be right.

 

[deadhead]

Grant isn't a 2nd line player, or even a 3rd line center, on the League's 4th worst team. Why would he suddenly be a 2nd, or 3rd, line guy on the 8th best team?

Grant has a higher pp/60 the last three seasons than either Pageau or Goodrow.
So are they 2C/3C types?

I don't think Grant is a great 3C, but most NHL 3Cs score between 20-30 ES points playing 12-13 minute at night at ES. So it's not like he'd be some black hole there offensively.

 

[Foggy14]

I imagine he’ll end up a 4th line wing, but they are seeing how he looks at 3C because they like Laughton better at wing if possible.

Could be. I like Laughton better at wing, too. I would have been happy with Grant at 4C, but the Thompson acquisition kinda threw a wrench into the works.

Grant has a higher pp/60 the last three seasons than either Pageau or Goodrow.
So are they 2C/3C types?

I don't think Grant is a great 3C, but most NHL 3Cs score between 20-30 ES points playing 12-13 minute at night at ES. So it's not like he'd be some black hole there offensively.

I hear 'ya, dead. Grant was a pretty good scorer in the AHL and he's shown some late-blooming finishing ability with the Ducks.

I'm just concerned that the addition of Thompson is already pushing expectations of Grant's role above where experience says it should be. Hope I'm wrong. Hope he wins the Conn Smythe this year.

 

[deadhead]

Face it, Grant is here b/c Lindblom and Patrick aren't, as much as I like Frost and Farabee, we lost two full size forwards entering their peak years and added Hayes and Pitlick to compensate. Now we have more depth in Grant and Thompson.

Not the players we wanted, but maybe the players we need.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Go look at my other posts if you want the numbers. I've typed them out plenty of times

Lazy is "have you even played bro"

I've played for 24 years and still play 4-6 a week. What magical power is this supposed to imbue me with?

 

[DancingPanther]

I've played for 24 years and still play 4-6 a week. What magical power is this supposed to imbue me with?

I only play like 3 games once per week nowadays. I can only hope to be as wise as you

 

[Tripod]

pre-trade, here is the thread and people's thought on Grant. We didn't see this Grant yet.

Value of: - The Great Derek Grant

 

[deadhead]

I want to see Grant for a few games with JVR and Pitlick and see if he can mesh with them and be adequate at 3C, because that solves a lot of problems in the short-run.

He's not the answer, but neither is Laughton, Frost or Giroux at center.

But if he can make it work, it gives AV another match-up option.
If he can't, you're down to Laughton or Frost, neither of which is ideal.

Either way, AV is going to have to shuffle lineups against different opponents and on the road (where he can't protect young forwards).

 

[wankstifier]

Does anyone else think Frost looks like a fit at 3C, or am I the only one?

 

[deadhead]

Does anyone else think Frost looks like a fit at 3C, or am I the only one?

This season or next season?

He has the offensive skills for 3C, but his lack of size makes him a liability in AV's defensive scheme, he's going to have trouble handling physical centers in the D-zone, and more trouble in the playoffs when teams can play bumper cars with him as the refs swallow their whistles.

I can see AV playing him at home where he can shelter Frost, and keep him off the ice with a lead in the 3rd period.
On the road, not so much.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Does anyone else think Frost looks like a fit at 3C, or am I the only one?

Do you even want to win in the playoffs?

 

[Rebels57]

Does anyone else think Frost looks like a fit at 3C, or am I the only one?

Hes never had as bad a game in the NHL as Grant had in his Flyers debut

 

[deadhead]

Frost was also highly sheltered by AV, 11:24 ES minutes a game and a very high proportion of O-zone starts.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

I only play like 3 games once per week nowadays. I can only hope to be as wise as you

I actually probably average closer to that. I play basically every day I'm not on the road for work.

Some times I forget to count them as actual days as I try to do as best I can to block work from my consciousness.

 

[wankstifier]

Do you even want to win in the playoffs?