I would find it hard to see them go to 14.5% of cap like EK's deal was or the 13.8% for Doughty's. Something around Fox (11.66%) or Makar (11.04%) seem more ballpark. If he is higher (say 12% of cap), it would be $10.2M AAV.
I don’t think that framing works for a couple reasons
1) Dahlin’s contract situation.
Makar -> 6yrs @ 9mil (4 RFA/2 UFA)
Fox —> 7yrs @ 9.5mil (3 RFA/4 UFA)
Any deal Dahlin signs for 8yrs (1 RFA/7 UFA)
On an 8yr deal, Makar/Fox would have easily gotten 10mil AAV. had he gone to 8yr. Makar possibly more (10-11mil).
2) Dahlin has more leverage than Makar/Fox did, arguably a lot more.
The UFA years difference is certainly a big part of that. But so is the very different economic circumstances o the NHL. Makar/Fox signed their extension in 2021 in the thick of the flat cap situation. It’s taken 3 more seasons (including this one) for it to play out. But its imapct for thsoe 3 years is to out a drag on salary growth with the limited cap space. But right now we already have estimates of a 92mil or so cap two season from now. Very different world. One more in line with the one that got Doughty and Karlsson their deals.
Dahlin signing 8x10 under these circumstances and with that leverage is effectively taking less than Makar/Fox. He’d be leaving money on the table and I can’t see his agent being on board with that. Not unless (he) Dahlin wants to give a discount.