Curious case of Brock Boesers next contract...

[VanJack]

Canucks cap-room is melting away. Basically only $5.5m left according to Cap Friendly. Enough maybe to sign Boeser, but that's about it. Somebody has to go before the summer is out--Tanev, Eriksson or Sutter for starters.

That Luongo contract penalty has really put Jimbo and the Canucks behind the eight-ball.

 

[StreetHawk]

Canucks cap-room is melting away. Basically only $5.5m left according to Cap Friendly. Enough maybe to sign Boeser, but that's about it. Somebody has to go before the summer is out--Tanev, Eriksson or Sutter for starters.

That Luongo contract penalty has really put Jimbo and the Canucks behind the eight-ball.

Cap friendly last I checked had 10D listed.

Teams can send 1 way deals down to the A and save $1.025 mill against the cap.

So there are guys who are going down like Schaller.

If you count the # of contracts they have like 14F, 10D, 2G.

You carry as 23 man roster.

 

[StreetHawk]

You are correct. I was thinking that the walk-away number was a percentage of the player's previous salary.

Regardless, this fear of arbitration is a bit nonsensical given how few players each year go to arbitration and complete the process.

Arbitration just ensures that he doesn’t need to accept a take it or leave it offer. He can have a third party decide the number if he’s not willing to accept the Canucks offer.

 

[canucksfan]

Cap friendly last I checked had 10D listed.

Teams can send 1 way deals down to the A and save $1.025 mill against the cap.

So there are guys who are going down like Schaller.

If you count the # of contracts they have like 14F, 10D, 2G.

You carry as 23 man roster.

In addition to saving money from Roussel going to the LTIR.

 

[absolute garbage]

I'm baffled why anyone hasn't given Boeser the Aho offer sheet. Canucks would be in trouble with a number like 8.454M, yet it wouldn't be a crippling overpayment for a player like Boeser, and adding a player of Boeser's quality and age for a (likely low) 1st, 2nd and 3rd would be a brilliant deal. The Canucks probably match that, but it still benefits you because the Canucks will be in a worse position going forward in terms of the salary cap.

I could see even that next tier (two 1sts, 2nd and 3rd for 10.568M/yr) be a beneficial deal. I feel like you could actually have a chance of getting Boeser with that offer sheet, but even if you don't, you screw over the Canucks even harder. I don't know about you, but as long as I had the required cap space (like multiple teams do), adding a 22 year old 40 goal scorer who has 110 points in 130 games for those costs would be a no brainer for me. A 10.5M contract for player like that should be a clear underpayment in 3-4 years with the Seattle expansion and new TV deals kicking in.

NHL teams are such p***yes.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

I'm baffled why anyone hasn't given Boeser the Aho offer sheet. Canucks would be in trouble with a number like 8.454M, yet it wouldn't be a crippling overpayment for a player like Boeser, and adding a player of Boeser's quality and age for a (likely low) 1st, 2nd and 3rd would be a brilliant deal. The Canucks probably match that, but it still benefits you because the Canucks will be in a worse position going forward in terms of the salary cap.

I could see even that next tier (two 1sts, 2nd and 3rd for 10.568M/yr) be a beneficial deal. I feel like you could actually have a chance of getting Boeser with that offer sheet, but even if you don't, you screw over the Canucks even harder. I don't know about you, but as long as I had the required cap space (like multiple teams do), adding a 22 year old 40 goal scorer who has 110 points in 130 games for those costs would be a no brainer for me. A 10.5M contract for player like that should be a clear underpayment in 3-4 years with the Seattle expansion and new TV deals kicking in.

NHL teams are such *****es.

Boeser is not eligible to be offer sheeted.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Boeser is not eligible to be offer sheeted.

Phew.

 

[absolute garbage]

Boeser is not eligible to be offer sheeted.

Oh yeah. Is it because he didn't hit that 10 game mark in his rookie year?

Sucks for him. He should easily get that 8.454M from other teams with the Canucks insisting 7 or below.

 

[StreetHawk]

Oh yeah. Is it because he didn't hit that 10 game mark in his rookie year?

Sucks for him. He should easily get that 8.454M from other teams with the Canucks insisting 7 or below.

Connor is basically the same player as Boeser and he's eligible to receive an offersheet. Jets are tight to the cap as well. Jets have just under $23 million in cap space, but only 15 players under contract. Need 8 more to ice their 23 man roster. Laine and Connor are the big costs, likely eating up 60-65% of that amount.

The Aho contract was actually good for the Canucks. Aho is the better player and a C. So, really hurts the argument that Boeser should get $8 million. Remember, Aho played 3 full seasons on his ELC, while Brock only accrued 2 years towards free agency. So, 1 year of UFA was bought out for Aho on the 5 year deal. Brock would need to do a 6 year term to have 1 UFA bought out. This was the tradeoff when he opted to return to ND for his sophomore season. You have to factor that into the negotiations between the 2 sides. Which is why the Meier and Nylander contracts are better comps since they are both wingers and both like Boeser only accrued 2 years towards free agency.

 

[Peter Griffin]

I expect the Canucks and Boeser will come to terms on a 4 or 5 year deal in the $6-7M AAV range.

 

[StreetHawk]

I expect the Canucks and Boeser will come to terms on a 4 or 5 year deal in the $6-7M AAV range.

It won't be a 5 year deal. Either you do a similar Meier deal which leaves him a RFA afterwards (so 4 and under), or you buy out at least 1 UFA year (6 or more), like Larkin, Mathews, Aho, Nylander. No point to only sign his remaining RFA years.

 

[Siludin]

It won't be a 5 year deal. Either you do a similar Meier deal which leaves him a RFA afterwards (so 4 and under), or you buy out at least 1 UFA year (6 or more), like Larkin, Mathews, Aho, Nylander. No point to only sign his remaining RFA years.

I actually think it's between a 3 year bridge deal at $5-5.5m (Boeser's camp may like this because it targets an offseason where the Canucks will have a lot of money to spend) and a 6-8 year deal (the Canucks definitely prefer this, in which the only question is how much Boeser's demanding for his UFA years vs. what the Canucks want to relinquish)

 

[StreetHawk]

I actually think it's between a 3 year bridge deal at $5-5.5m (Boeser's camp may like this because it targets an offseason where the Canucks will have a lot of money to spend) and a 6-8 year deal (the Canucks definitely prefer this, in which the only question is how much Boeser's demanding for his UFA years vs. what the Canucks want to relinquish)

Skinner's UFA years at age 27, which would be the same age that Brock would begin his costs Buffalo $9 million currently. So, what is that price in 5 years? $10 to $11 million per? Added to the $6.8 million per that Meier's contract will cost for his RFA if he just signs his QO?

My thoughts are $34 million for 5 RFA years like Meier, and add 1 year of UFA at Skinner's cost of $9 million. That's $43 million for 6 years. Inflation for the 5 years, so add another million to get to $44 million over 6. Something between $43-44 million over 6. So a $$7.167 to $7.33 million cap hit.

 

[Siludin]

Skinner's UFA years at age 27, which would be the same age that Brock would begin his costs Buffalo $9 million currently. So, what is that price in 5 years? $10 to $11 million per? Added to the $6.8 million per that Meier's contract will cost for his RFA if he just signs his QO?

My thoughts are $34 million for 5 RFA years like Meier, and add 1 year of UFA at Skinner's cost of $9 million. That's $43 million for 6 years. Inflation for the 5 years, so add another million to get to $44 million over 6. Something between $43-44 million over 6. So a $$7.167 to $7.33 million cap hit.

I can definitely see this on a longer term deal. Canucks fans will probably complain but it makes sense.

 

[Spectrefire]

I'm not worried at all about the negotiations taking this long. Horvat's took a long time to hammer out too, and the Canucks got an absolutely steal of a contract out of it.

Given the current cap situation in the league, and expectation that it could potentially reach 100 million in the next few years, it's understandable that a lot of the RFAs are taking their time to figure out what the best course of action for them would be.

Don't forget that Werenski, Laine, Connor, Tkachuk, McAvoy, Provorov, Rantanen, Marner, Konecny, Point. There are still a LOT of high-end RFAs trying to work out a deal with their teams, and they're probably all waiting for someone to go first.

 

[UK Canuck]

4 years would be a friggin disaster, that just absolutely screams Boeser taking his 1 year ARB rights contract and then walking, because that would be the most Canucks thing ever

 

[absolute garbage]

Connor is basically the same player as Boeser and he's eligible to receive an offersheet. Jets are tight to the cap as well. Jets have just under $23 million in cap space, but only 15 players under contract. Need 8 more to ice their 23 man roster. Laine and Connor are the big costs, likely eating up 60-65% of that amount.

The Aho contract was actually good for the Canucks. Aho is the better player and a C. So, really hurts the argument that Boeser should get $8 million. Remember, Aho played 3 full seasons on his ELC, while Brock only accrued 2 years towards free agency. So, 1 year of UFA was bought out for Aho on the 5 year deal. Brock would need to do a 6 year term to have 1 UFA bought out. This was the tradeoff when he opted to return to ND for his sophomore season. You have to factor that into the negotiations between the 2 sides. Which is why the Meier and Nylander contracts are better comps since they are both wingers and both like Boeser only accrued 2 years towards free agency.

Just to be clear, I don't think Boeser should get 8 million in this restricted negotiation situation he's in. I'm just saying that if he was effectively free game right now (eligible for offer sheet), it would be stupid if he didn't get that kind of offer from somewhere.

I'll never understand why GMs don't utilize the offer sheet option more. I get the sense that they vastly overrate those picks. Which is kinda hilarious, because they pay similar prices for disappointing rentals at the deadline. Why not go for the early 20s all-stars instead? You know, the kind of player you hope (but are unlikely) to hit with one of those picks?

I think that in a logical and sensical world the offer sheet would basically set a baseline for the RFA players that are eligible to receive those. For example Carolina shouldn't even bother to offer Aho anything less than 10.568M/yr, because it should be absolutely guaranteed that teams out there would be offering him that and ready to trade those picks for a player like him. The fact that there isn't is just gross incompetence to me. Ditto for guys like Connor. The fact that there are no teams offering him that 8.454M and ready to trade the according picks is mind-numbing to me.

Sure some of this will go to the overall terrible managing of giving bloated contracts to non-important players so they don't have the cap space required to make these offers and acquire actual good and super valuable players, but that's part of the problem. NHL front offices are so f***ing stupid.

 

[StreetHawk]

It’s setting the new bench mark for contracts going forward that teams don’t want to be doing.

Especially if you have rfas to sign in the coming year or two. You pay Connor $8.5 rather than $7 then your own rfa is going to expect that amount going forward if he is a similar player.

 

[Blue and Green]

3 years and 6 years seem like the sensible term options for the team. They'd be running up the cap hit at 8 years; can't afford it during these next 3 seasons. A 3-year bridge gets them past the Loui and Luongo situations while keeping Boeser two years away from UFA.

 

[DonnyNucker]

4 years would be a friggin disaster, that just absolutely screams Boeser taking his 1 year ARB rights contract and then walking, because that would be the most Canucks thing ever

No 5 years would be a disaster. 4 years, it would depend entirely on the AAV

 

[StreetHawk]

No 5 years would be a disaster. 4 years, it would depend entirely on the AAV

Plus the structure of the salary for year 4 like Meier. It’s the structure of a contract that can take some time to resolve.

I don’t expect Brock to sign for 7-8 years. Everyone else coming off rfa is only giving up 1 year of ufa.

Brock is in that group of rfas who still have 5 years left of rfa given that they didn’t accrue an nhl season towards free agency in year 1 of their elc. We’re in on an nhl roster for 40 games or more.

The marner, Mathews, Larkin, Aho group played all 3 years in the NHL thus only have 4 rfa years left.

So for the Canucks and Brock it’s either a 4 year or less deal or one that is 6 or longer.

Makes more sense to do 6 for the Canucks.

But given the limited cap that comes off the books this coming season and the likelihood of keeping or replacing them it doesn’t leave them much options to upgrade in 2020 summer. Markstrom, Tanev, Stecher, Gaudette, Virtanen, Leivo, Motte will be up. Not any of the bad contracts.

Can either take the lower cap hit now but pay for it later.

From Brocks POV the timing of when he gets his next contract is important.

He’s 22 now. Ufa begins for him at age 27. He really doesn’t want to be ufa at 29/30 as it will be harder to get term. JVR at 29 last summer got 5 years at $7 per until age 34.

If he does 6 it gets him to age 28. Then he would aim for the max term of 8/7/6 years whatever the next cba says. Would take him to between 34-36. He would be selling the remaining prime years of his career.

Doing a 3/4 year deal takes him 25/26. Max term after that would take him to between 31-34 depending on the next cba. So, he would be looking for another contract after that with less bargaining power.

 

[polarbearcub]

 

[m9]

I'm fine with a short contract for Boeser. I have little interest in an 8 year contract for any winger with average speed and a string of injuries. Too much risk.

 

[Love]

I'm fine with a short contract for Boeser. I have little interest in an 8 year contract for any winger with average speed and a string of injuries. Too much risk.

Freezing cold take right here

 

[polarbearcub]

Another photo posted of brock with a towel covering his arm.