Speculation: Crawford

[BK]

I will take 5 more low quality shots instead of one high quality scoring chance.

That is debatable in my opinion. I am not able to look right now but it would be interesting to see the scoring rate on high quality scoring chances and low quality then extrapolate it out to figure what is actually better.

 

[BobbyJet]

Comparing goaltenders by numbers alone is an exercise in futility. I suppose it's a baseball mentality that simply doesn't work with every sport, but folks will always keep trying.

 

[BobbyJet]

That is debatable in my opinion. I am not able to look right now but it would be interesting to see the scoring rate on high quality scoring chances and low quality then extrapolate it out to figure what is actually better.

What I witnessed with Darling/Ward last season was a perfect example of stats not telling the whole story. Canes were/are supposedly a solid defensive team because they allow so few shots. Problem being, in many games the shots they give up are high quality, and I mean very high. And those grade-A chances usually result in poor goaltender stats which we saw from both netminders.
We all know Darling can be better than he was but his numbers last season were skewed, as were Wards - hopefully Ward still has some hockey left in him. Personally, I think Ward is better than he gets credit for around here.

 

[Pez68]

What I witnessed with Darling/Ward last season was a perfect example of stats not telling the whole story. Canes were/are supposedly a solid defensive team because they allow so few shots. Problem being, in many games the shots they give up are high quality, and I mean very high. And those grade-A chances usually result in poor goaltender stats which we saw from both netminders.
We all know Darling can be better than he was but his numbers last season were skewed, as were Wards - hopefully Ward still has some hockey left in him. Personally, I think Ward is better than he gets credit for around here.

Bingo.

 

[The Worst One]

What's the current Crow's status? Will he be able to play on the opening night? If not then we're f***ed. Although on second thought we're screwed anyway because we lack at least two top 4 defensmen. It would be a blessing if we could acquire Erik Karlsson and 2nd pairing defenseman.

 

[BK]

Comparing goaltenders by numbers alone is an exercise in futility. I suppose it's a baseball mentality that simply doesn't work with every sport, but folks will always keep trying.

Yes to a point. Like all numbers they are just a tool.

What I witnessed with Darling/Ward last season was a perfect example of stats not telling the whole story. Canes were/are supposedly a solid defensive team because they allow so few shots. Problem being, in many games the shots they give up are high quality, and I mean very high. And those grade-A chances usually result in poor goaltender stats which we saw from both netminders.
We all know Darling can be better than he was but his numbers last season were skewed, as were Wards - hopefully Ward still has some hockey left in him. Personally, I think Ward is better than he gets credit for around here.

I agree.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Rozi was playing at a solid #5 level in the 2015 run before he got hurt. He wasn't great, but he wasn't the dumpster fire he was for most of that year

 

[BobbyJet]

Rozi was playing at a solid #5 level in the 2015 run before he got hurt.

Yes, and as I recall, many of his critics ignored Rozi's good play and continued to diss him.

 

[AmericanDream]

Rozi was playing at a solid #5 level in the 2015 run before he got hurt. He wasn't great, but he wasn't the dumpster fire he was for most of that year

that simply never happened....

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Rozi has a handful of really good games against Nashville in the playoffs. He was a tire fire 98% of that year.

 

[x Tame Impala]

He was fine in Anaheim before he got hurt too

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

He was fine in Anaheim before he got hurt too

He was hurt the series prior.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Whatever the series was before he got hurt

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Against Nashville. Like I said. He was awful all year and had a couple good playoff games.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Comparing goaltenders by numbers alone is an exercise in futility. I suppose it's a baseball mentality that simply doesn't work with every sport, but folks will always keep trying.

This is true, but the eye test tells us Crawford is one of the best Hawk goalies as well.

Personally, I never though high of Raanta when he played here. He was a bit erratic and seemed to lose position a lot. I felt more comfortable with Darling, but also felt he could get exposed a little more if shooters wrote a book on him. He played well the season after that which gave me a little more hope for him, but last year kind of ruined any progress he had.

 

[LordKOTL]

Sorry, I meant as a team, Blackhawks goalies saw less shots than all but one other NHL team, not necessarily just Crawford. That's my mistake.

2014-15 NHL Summary | Hockey-Reference.com

Scroll over to SA. The Hawks allowed 2127 shots. Less than all but one team, Vancouver, who allowed 1993.

Again, this goes to my statement that the Hawks team defense was instrumental in the performance of the goalies that season. Again, the Hawks were the 2nd best defensive team in the NHL that season, statistically speaking. And from my recollection of their play, that is entirely accurate. Which, again, is why they could ride 4 defensemen through the entirety of the playoffs.

Not sure where you're getting the whole "the 'hawks as a team allowed more shots than 2/3rds of the league in 2015." from. It's wrong. I'm assuming you're using 2015-2016, not 2014-2015. The Cup season is 14-15, not 15-16. And 15-16 is a whole different ballgame. They were bottom 5 in the NHL in SA that season. It was a disgustingly bad team defense that year.

Directly from NHL.com:

 

[ChiHawks10]

Directly from NHL.com:

View attachment 134925

Apparently every site we look at has different stats...

According to the stats I was looking at, and recalling from my memory their play on the ice, they had a great team D that year. And I'm pretty sure most will agree on that. Again, you can't run four D through an entire playoff run without having a great team D. You've really posted nothing refuting the fact that they had a great team D, whereas I've supported my statement with multiple sources and statistics stating the Hawks had a great team D.

Anyways, no sense arguing this anymore, because it's obvious we're not going to change each other's mind. Crow saw 2 more shots per game than he did the year prior. To me, that's not working much harder.

Was the team D starting to trend down that year? Absolutely. But it was still one of the best in the league according to all the advanced stats, and numerous reportings from analysts/hockey sites.

 

[RayP]

That is debatable in my opinion. I am not able to look right now but it would be interesting to see the scoring rate on high quality scoring chances and low quality then extrapolate it out to figure what is actually better.

Does high vs low chances factor in rebounds generated?

 

[BK]

Does high vs low chances factor in rebounds generated?

I don't have data to back this up so it purely my opinion but I do think that high quality chances create more rebounds than low quality chances but in saying that NHL goalies are using much stiffer gear which creates more rebounds. This is intentional as the puck comes off the pad much hotter and they focus on getting the puck to the corners out of high danger areas. Not all goalies do this. Quick and Holtby use a softer pad from what I can tell.

 

[RayP]

I don't have data to back this up so it purely my opinion but I do think that high quality chances create more rebounds than low quality chances but in saying that NHL goalies are using much stiffer gear which creates more rebounds. This is intentional as the puck comes off the pad much hotter and they focus on getting the puck to the corners out of high danger areas. Not all goalies do this. Quick and Holtby use a softer pad from what I can tell.

Yeah I would think so too, just didn’t know if there was a way to differentiate that with high and low scoring chances. As in like a low chance automatically means no rebound.

 

[BobbyJet]

Does high vs low chances factor in rebounds generated?

At the risk of stating the obvious: High quality scoring chances will result in more rebounds, assuming of course that the original attempt does not bulge the twine. Typically the defending goalie will be concentrating on one thing: stopping the original shot any way possible and worry about rebounds after that save.

 

[jaysoneil]

At the risk of stating the obvious: High quality scoring chances will result in more rebounds, assuming of course that the original attempt does not bulge the twine. Typically the defending goalie will be concentrating on one thing: stopping the original shot any way possible and worry about rebounds after that save.

Unless rung off the pipe, if we're talking "chance" instead of "shot".

Not sure who said it, but I'd agree - I'll take 1 high quality shot vs 5 low quality all day, everyday.

 

[Marotte Marauder]

Unless rung off the pipe, if we're talking "chance" instead of "shot".

Not sure who said it, but I'd agree - I'll take 1 high quality shot vs 5 low quality all day, everyday.

Actually I said the inverse but we agree.

BK, you're a goalie, don't you think you'd do better facing 30 low quality shots than 6 high quality shots in a game?

 

[BK]

Actually I said the inverse but we agree.

BK, you're a goalie, don't you think you'd do better facing 30 low quality shots than 6 high quality shots in a game?

I do but anything can happen. I have played lights out and stopped all the high quality chances only to have a shutout or game ruined by a shot that goes off my own player then in or I let in a weak due to technique mistakes or trying to do to much.

Goalies are weird, sometimes the games moves so slow and it comes easy and random times it is moving way to fast and you can’t stop a beachball. I had games in Jrs, AAA, and HS where I could stop everything and make it looks smooth only to play in a beer league/practice the next night/day where I could not stop a single shot.

I do wonder that the threshold his where weak chances out weigh high quality chances. Never have taken the time to dig into the data.

 

[BobbyJet]

/\ Good post but NHL goalies can't afford to be inconsistent and expect to last long in the league.