My biggest interrogation about the current ''How to contain COVID'' model is how can we be sure that this won't create an endless cycle of quanrantine-unquarantine periods until a successful vaccine is available (and that's if there is one). Let's say the current semi lockdown is successful in flattening the curve , what happens next if cases start to spike again in let's say december or january ? We go into another semi lockdown again to flatten the curve and do it all over again ?
We cannot do this forever can we ?
This is actually the plan.
Impose measures to keep spikes as low as possible, relax them as things get better while maintaining certain mitigation efforts in place and adjusting to incorporateanything new we learn along the way.
The 'quarantines' we do are meant to be both a hard stop to uncontrolled spread, as well as a reset of sorts, to allow the wave to die down and get to a level that is more manageable.
As it stands, with levels the way they are, proper contact tracing is impossible. That's the biggest issue. Contact tracing programs are the only way to control the pandemic without a vaccine. But with 1000 cases/day they cannot possibly do that effectively and they admit as much.
Most projections have been expecting waves that rise and fall during the course of the pandemic, for about 2 and a half years or so.
When the waves go too high to manage, we need to impose a temporary lockdown like we're doing now. It won't go back down without some kind of intervention. Ideally we can keep a "scenario 3" for as long as possible with good contact tracing and other measures. It's not going to just go away like magic.
A large reason why things went so well this summer is because contact tracing was able to keep things in check (among other factors). But now? Contact tracing is not possible and will never be possible with the level of new cases we're seeing. So we really don't have a choice.
The best way to avoid alternating cycles of quarantining and re-opening is simple: Everyone needs to be on board, everyone needs to take this seriously, everyone needs to do their part. Everyone. If there's even just one person with a head full of shit thinking they know better than public health officials then it's enough to derail it for many, many others.
We're all suffering, making sacrifices. When someone turns around and says this thing is not so bad, and acts accordingly, it undoes the work that everyone is doing.
It's selfish, and I personally will not forget.
