Speculation: Could Karlsson come back to Ottawa?

[Ice-Tray]

Not really.

At the time of the trade, San Jose had:

Tomas Hertl age 24
Timo Meier age 21
Evander Kane age 27
Kevin Labanc age 22
Logan Couture age 29

Karlsson was supposed to take over the superstar offensive catalyst role from Thornton, and the team was supposed to keep rolling.

It wasn't a team on its last legs. Obviously didn't work out how they envisioned, but they thought they had a core that'd compete for the next 5 years.

But there are no guarantees. We acquired DeBrincat thinking we'd be in the mix. Instead, we're in 27th.

My point was that they didn’t need him on D. They already had Burns and Vlasic, EK was like TO picking up Tavares; not necessary.

The difference with us acquiring DBC this time, is that we have a lot of runway to decide if we want to sign him or trade him.

It’s not a knock on EK, it was just a huge trade for a player that didn’t fill a position of need. It’s like us looking add another star LD, we just don’t need that position filled.

 

[DaveMatthew]

My point was that they didn’t need him on D. They already had Burns and Vlasic, EK was like TO picking up Tavares; not necessary.

The difference with us acquiring DBC this time, is that we have a lot of runway to decide if we want to sign him or trade him.

It’s not a knock on EK, it was just a huge trade for a player that didn’t fill a position of need. It’s like us looking add another star LD, we just don’t need that position filled.

Their forward core was better than their defense at the time of the trade, so it wasn't unnecessary. Vlasic was a LD and Burns was a RD. So that wasn't like Chabot/Sanderson either.

No doubt in hindsight it is a bad move (just like many of the ones we've made). But at the time, it wasn't considered bad (just like many of the ones we've made, as well).

What happened to SJ in 19/20 was very much like what happened to Ottawa in 17/18. A lot of bad things that they didn't think would happen happened at the same time, right after they made it to the conference finals. And now they're going to go through a massive rebuild, just like we have.

Tavares to Toronto wasn't a mistake either, despite their playoff game 7 performances. That's worked out very well for them. They've been a contender every year he's been there, him playing on the 2nd line has unlocked Matthews, and their forward group is the best defensive forward group in the league. He's a big part of that.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Their forward core was better than their defense at the time of the trade, so it wasn't unnecessary. Vlasic was a LD and Burns was a RD. So that wasn't like Chabot/Sanderson either.

No doubt in hindsight it is a bad move (just like many of the ones we've made). But at the time, it wasn't considered bad (just like many of the ones we've made, as well).

What happened to SJ in 19/20 was very much like what happened to Ottawa in 17/18. A lot of bad things that they didn't think would happen happened at the same time. And now they're going to go through a massive rebuild, just like we have.

Tavares to Toronto wasn't a mistake either, despite their playoff game 7 performances. That's worked out very well for them. They've been a contender every year he's been there, him playing on the 2nd line has unlocked Matthews, and their forward group is the best defensive forward group in the league. He's a big part of that.

I don’t think the Tavares trade has worked out well for TO, he didn’t fix a hole that has sunk them for the last several years. Good that they look better finally, but Tavares isn’t the reason for that, nor has he been great when it counts the most.

EK also didn’t plug a hole at the time or since.

That’s how I personally view it, though I’m content to agree to disagree on the point.

 

[DaveMatthew]

I don’t think the Tavares trade has worked out well for TO, he didn’t fix a hole that has sunk them for the last several years. Good that they look better finally, but Tavares isn’t the reason for that, nor has he been great when it counts the most.

As hard as it is to admit since it's the Leafs, them losing 5 straight game 7's is as much about bad luck as poor roster construction. They're still a very good, well-built team, that's been a top contender for a long time and probably will be for quite a few more seasons.

There hasn't really been one "hole" that's sunk them. Signing Tavares certainly isn't it.

Very similar to what we went through. The late 90's and early 00's Senators team were also very good, well-built teams despite the playoff heartbreaks.

There's something to be said for being good in the regular season year in and year out.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

As hard as it is to admit since it's the Leafs, them losing 5 straight game 7's is as much about bad luck as poor roster construction. They're still a very good, well-built team, that's been a top contender for a long time and probably will be for quite a few more seasons.

There hasn't really been one "hole" that's sunk them. Signing Tavares certainly isn't it.

Very similar to what we went through. The late 90's and early 00's Senators team were also very good, well-built teams despite the playoff heartbreaks.

There's something to be said for being good in the regular season year in and year out.

I have a hard time seeing him as the problem even if there were come questionable roster construction choices there in general. He's still putting up a ppg and has the whole time there, and he hasn't missed a lot of games to injury. I just have a hard time saying a guy that produces and stays in the lineup like that is the problem. Yes, he's getting paid well, but he's doing his job.

 

[SensHulk]

I kinda view Karlsson in a similar boat as Luongo. Canucks were trying to trade him, he controlled his destiny but also they were limited in what teams could trade for him. Some folks will remember the ‘my contract sucks’ comment he made when the canucks were unable to trade him at the deadline in 2013.

Fast forward to 2014 and somehow Luongo wound up back in his off-season home in Florida. If I were a betting man, I think a similar path follows for Karlsson where the sharks attempt to trade him but hit lots of roadblocks along the way, eventually paving a path of least resistance back to Ottawa (could be another year from now though)

Here’s the moment when Luongo was traded, interesting parallels to Ottawa’s situation

 

[Big Muddy]

Tavares to Toronto wasn't a mistake either, despite their playoff game 7 performances. That's worked out very well for them. They've been a contender every year he's been there, him playing on the 2nd line has unlocked Matthews, and their forward group is the best defensive forward group in the league. He's a big part of that.

Kind of picky but I don't think Tavares has "unlocked Matthews" or been the reason for Matthews success. Other teams focus on Matthews and try to defend him keeping the attention away from Tavares mostly.

The other thing that could be argued is that the Leafs are a contender. They have had regular season success but no playoff success. Yes they are a good team and have made the playoffs each year, but I guess its somewhat user definable on whether that can be called a contender or not.

I think the argument against the Tavares $11 m contract has been if that money might have been better spent elsewhere like on defense and maybe goaltending. Their defense has gotten better more so in recent years, but they had been trying to improve their defense for several years prior to that which they even admitted themselves.

To me, the team 2 main assets are Matthews and Marner. Matthews was good fortune in that he was the clear #1 exactly when the Leafs sucked the most. I think they even altered the lottery rules shortly after iirc so double luck there as well.

 

[Norris4Norris]

My point was that they didn’t need him on D. They already had Burns and Vlasic, EK was like TO picking up Tavares; not necessary.

Toronto needed another top Centre behind Matthews and Tavares has been a point per game player and solid performer for years there; not to mention the captaincy.

 

[Cosmix]

Hmmmmm Chabot's a minus 2 and Zub is a minus 1 on an equally bad team with far less offensive stats. Your argument is full of holes.
I'd be happy to take on Karlsson if he came with a $6 million cap hit for 2 years. But no way with his current contract.

More like $7M for 4 years is what would be required. SJ would have to retain $4.5M per year and be compensated for doing so in addition to compensation for EK the player.

Would the Senators 2023 1st draft pick be sufficient and worthwhile to trade away? Or would it have to be protected, such as top 3 or top 5 protected to get it done? Or would it be the Senators 1st draft pick in 2024 be sufficient?

 

[Cosmix]

Their forward core was better than their defense at the time of the trade, so it wasn't unnecessary. Vlasic was a LD and Burns was a RD. So that wasn't like Chabot/Sanderson either.

No doubt in hindsight it is a bad move (just like many of the ones we've made). But at the time, it wasn't considered bad (just like many of the ones we've made, as well).

What happened to SJ in 19/20 was very much like what happened to Ottawa in 17/18. A lot of bad things that they didn't think would happen happened at the same time, right after they made it to the conference finals. And now they're going to go through a massive rebuild, just like we have.

Tavares to Toronto wasn't a mistake either, despite their playoff game 7 performances. That's worked out very well for them. They've been a contender every year he's been there, him playing on the 2nd line has unlocked Matthews, and their forward group is the best defensive forward group in the league. He's a big part of that.

I am not certain what you mean by "unlocked".

 

[bicboi64]

My point was that they didn’t need him on D. They already had Burns and Vlasic, EK was like TO picking up Tavares; not necessary.

The difference with us acquiring DBC this time, is that we have a lot of runway to decide if we want to sign him or trade him.

It’s not a knock on EK, it was just a huge trade for a player that didn’t fill a position of need. It’s like us looking add another star LD, we just don’t need that position filled.

I agree with this.

Sharks had a very balanced roster without Karlsson and already had a very good puck moving RD in Burns. It was a bit overkill to acquire Karlsson given how he thrives best with lots of ice time...something Burns does as well. Braun was their 2RD at the time and was still a top 4 defender.

 

[bicboi64]

Tavares to Toronto wasn't a mistake either, despite their playoff game 7 performances. That's worked out very well for them. They've been a contender every year he's been there, him playing on the 2nd line has unlocked Matthews, and their forward group is the best defensive forward group in the league. He's a big part of that.

Reason I would disagree with JT as a good signing was that it set a poor standard for salaries for their young guys. AM34 was arguably as good as Tavares when they got him and allowed his agent to being asking for $11 million the minute JT was signed.

Leafs were in a very good position cap wise with Kadri on his deal, and the JT signing set the blue print for overspending/prioritizing the forwards over their D in Toronto

 

[DueDiligence]

More like $7M for 4 years is what would be required. SJ would have to retain $4.5M per year and be compensated for doing so in addition to compensation for EK the player.

Would the Senators 2023 1st draft pick be sufficient and worthwhile to trade away? Or would it have to be protected, such as top 3 or top 5 protected to get it done? Or would it be the Senators 1st draft pick in 2024 be sufficient?

Still an $11 million dollar cap hit regardless of the salary.

 

[DueDiligence]

Toronto needed another top Centre behind Matthews and Tavares has been a point per game player and solid performer for years there; not to mention the captaincy.

Toronto had Kadri at a cap hit of $4.5 million. One could argue the Leafs would have been far better off keeping Kadri , not signing Tavares and using that extra $6.5 million on a stud Dman or goalie.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Toronto had Kadri at a cap hit of $4.5 million. One could argue the Leafs would have been far better off keeping Kadri , not signing Tavares and using that extra $6.5 million on a stud Dman or goalie.

One could definitely argue that. But the counter would be that Kadri probably wouldn't have been the same player had he stayed in Toronto, due to the intense media pressure after what had happened in the 2 playoffs before his trade.

He took a pretty big step back offensively in 18/19, scoring just 16 goals in 73 games. Tavares came in the next year and scored 47.

Getting out of Toronto was a great thing for Kadri's career. And Tavares has been very good as a Leaf.

In the playoffs, of course, the results have been very much the same. The Leafs lost 3 times in the 1st round with Kadri, and have now lost 3 times in the 1st round with Tavares.

Also, the Leafs playoff problems have not been caused by their defense and goaltending. They've been caused by their stars going cold at the absolute worst times, and the opposing goalies playing like madmen.

Honestly the parallels between what happened to those Sens teams and what the Leafs have gone through is eerie. The Leafs ran into Vasilevskyi, Price and Rask. We ran into Belfour and Cujo. It makes me believe in karma.

The series last year was almost exactly like our series against the Leafs in 2002. We were rolling after 5 games, and had outplayed them at both ends. We were finally going to do it. But we lost Game 6 by one goal in a heartbreaking fashion, and proceeded to get shutout by Joseph in game 7.

Were we a badly constructed team? Maybe, but it was just a ton of bad luck.

 

[bicboi64]

One could definitely argue that. But the counter would be that Kadri probably wouldn't have been the same player had he stayed in Toronto, due to the intense media pressure after what had happened in the 2 playoffs before his trade.

He took a pretty big step back offensively in 18/19, scoring just 16 goals in 73 games. Tavares came in the next year and scored 47.

Getting out of Toronto was a great thing for Kadri's career. And Tavares has been very good as a Leaf.

I did some stats digging and Kadri's overall ice time was the same the before and after Tavares was signed, and his PP time went up after Tavares. Turns out Kadri genuinely started to offensively decline so there goes my argument that Kadri as the 3c was putting up fine numbers (which he still was, but not really if we consider his ice time staying the same or unless Marner is separated from JT).

My only real argument to not sign JT would be he'll never be worth the $11 million (he's been maybe worth it in his first season), and it set the precedent for prioritizing capspace to the forwards over the D)

 

[TonySoprano11]

I love coming to a thread about Karlsson coming to Ottawa and then reading all about Toronto's Kadri and Tavares trades.

 

[Samsquanch]

Imagine new ownership, Ryan Reynolds, Alfie as POHO, elite GM of our choice, Spezza AND Jacques Martins as AGMs. Philly, Neil, Redden, ect all here in the organization - and at some point in time they make a trade deadline deal for Karlsson, and then proceed to go on and win the cup. How good does that thought hit you in the feels?

I'm drunk but this would seriously be the greatest sports series/ongoing documentary of all time if done right. Which I believe it would be.

Point being, let's wait it out my peeps lol. For now.

 

[Cosmix]

Still an $11 million dollar cap hit regardless of the salary.

Part of the cap hit would be retained by SJ.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Toronto had Kadri at a cap hit of $4.5 million. One could argue the Leafs would have been far better off keeping Kadri , not signing Tavares and using that extra $6.5 million on a stud Dman or goalie.

I agree that Kadri has become a much better player. But in Toronto he was a huge liability and always getting ejected from the playoffs when they needed him the most. Kadri had to go and it benefited Kadri greatly, so all's well that ends well.

Is Tavares still worth 11 million a year? I don't think so. But Toronto is killing it this year so good for them.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Will Karlsson come back to Ottawa? No.

We are not a playoff team that needs a quarterback like Karlsson to make us a cup contender. Would he make us a playoff team if we traded for him now? Maybe. But he is old and prone to injury and the whole point of the rebuild was to get good young defenders who can grow with the rebuild.

I personally love Sanderson so much, I believe he will be a top 5 defender in the NHL once he reaches his prime. Chabot, when healthy and not exhausted, is an awesome puck moving defencman who can skate and has grown so much in his career. Zub is the shut down guy and we need to fill the rest of the D out in time.

For me it is tempting to add Karlsson to that mix because it would make us so solid on the back end. But again my argument would be that we would have to give up too much of our future team for now. We can't win a Stanley Cup by just adding Karlsson, but if we have patience and let the good young players develop we might see improvements every year until they have found a way themselves to become dominant and a Stanley Cup contender.

 

[Big Muddy]

Toronto needed another top Centre behind Matthews and Tavares has been a point per game player and solid performer for years there; not to mention the captaincy.

Can't argue with the Leaf's playoff success. Tavares is a good player no doubt, but money might have been better spent elsewhere.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Will Karlsson come back to Ottawa? No.

We are not a playoff team that needs a quarterback like Karlsson to make us a cup contender. Would he make us a playoff team if we traded for him now? Maybe. But he is old and prone to injury and the whole point of the rebuild was to get good young defenders who can grow with the rebuild.

I personally love Sanderson so much, I believe he will be a top 5 defender in the NHL once he reaches his prime. Chabot, when healthy and not exhausted, is an awesome puck moving defencman who can skate and has grown so much in his career. Zub is the shut down guy and we need to fill the rest of the D out in time.

For me it is tempting to add Karlsson to that mix because it would make us so solid on the back end. But again my argument would be that we would have to give up too much of our future team for now. We can't win a Stanley Cup by just adding Karlsson, but if we have patience and let the good young players develop we might see improvements every year until they have found a way themselves to become dominant and a Stanley Cup contender.

Problem with that is we don't seem to be getting that. Maybe JBD and/or Thomson fill a role, but it's not looking great for solid top 4. Zub being a UFA would compound the problem if he leaves. We're going to need outside help either way. Not necessarily a Karlsson argument, but it seems obvious we aren't building the whole thing internally.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Problem with that is we don't seem to be getting that. Maybe JBD and/or Thomson fill a role, but it's not looking great for solid top 4. Zub being a UFA would compound the problem if he leaves. We're going to need outside help either way. Not necessarily a Karlsson argument, but it seems obvious we aren't building the whole thing internally.

That's fair. But one thing is that we will probably have a high pick and a chance at the lottery this year. If we get another Sanderson we could slowly fill out; but I get that we have a pretty solid team and might want to win now.

I think if we do go the route of trade I would rather someone like Chycrun or a younger guy, but probably so would every team.

Can't argue with the Leaf's playoff success. Tavares is a good player no doubt, but money might have been better spent elsewhere.

Toronto has a pretty good defense for right now though. With Muzzin, Brodie and Reilly out at times Giordano has stepped up and they still win games.

 

[Big Muddy]

Toronto has a pretty good defense for right now though. With Muzzin, Brodie and Reilly out at times Giordano has stepped up and they still win games.

Ya, got to give them credit given the injuries they have. I was more referring to the past.

They needed to address their blueline. It started by adding Muzzin which was a decent trade on their part. And when they added Giordano, that helped to solidify their blueline. But it took a few years to get there, and perhaps this is what help them back or was one of the main factors.

What I find ironic is that the Leafs are like an older version of the Senators i.e., late 90s to 2007. They have a good team, but fall short in the playoffs. Thankfully we won more playoff rounds than them though. The other similarity is we need to add to our defense just as the Leafs did a few years back.

I guess I'll always cry tears of joy when the Leafs bow out in the 1st round.