HF Habs: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Michoulicious]

Maybe he is (playing poker face).

This is probably the last time they wil rely on the draft to aim for early elite talent, because this is the last draft where they expect to land so low. Doesn’t take a genius to understand that the Calgary-Florida pick will be traded for immediate help next season. And they will be making a serious push for the playoffs in 2025-2026 to start the cycle - even Hughes mentioned that next year’s off season will be his most important (where him and Gorton will be judged).

So by saying he could trade down, he’s letting other teams overthink what they are going to do (remember last draft, where other teams wanted to get Reinbacher). He’s not going to trade down.

Habs’ scouting team have a pretty decent idea of their top 5 already. Their board is ready. The difference right now is that there is a lot of volatility with the top 3-5. So he’s keeping everybody on their toes by saying they could trade down. They won’t. There is nothing to gain with a trade down. They are not in getting more draft picks anymore (the Peg pick will be traded for immediate help, that’s a given - modus operandi), they are slowly starting to make moves to help the club immediately.

Only my opinion? Yes! But listen to HuGo and you will see that they don’t expect to draft top 5 next season. And they are making a push to start the cycle after next season. This is it, folks. Draft geeks need to enjoy this one. Next year, I can see them trade their firsts to bulk up their top 6.

You could say that since there is basically no consensus in the 2-10 range, it would make sense for management to trade down from #5 to #8-10 if they are comfortable their favorite player will be there anyways, getting an asset (ex a 2nd or even more) doing so, and then using that asset to either move the Winnipeg pick in the teens or package it with Winnipeg's pick for immediate help in the line-up. Of course, the trade partners need to be there.

Imagine getting out of the draft with Yakemchuk AND Greentree?

This is asset management. There is ALWAYS something to gain when you get more picks, especially top 50-60 picks. These are valuable assets and teams covet them.

Just watch what Armstrong will do with all the second rounders the team accumulated in the last few years now that their ownership has money. They will become a lot stronger with just with a few trades.

 

[NeptunesTrident]

That Winnipeg pick looks better and better. A lot of hockey to go but hopefully they could package it with other picks to move up and grab another impact forward like MBN or Sennecke.

 

[waitin425]

That Winnipeg pick looks better and better. A lot of hockey to go but hopefully they could package it with other picks to move up and grab another impact forward like MBN or Sennecke.

Moving up is never a bad idea. But if they move it, I want them to move it in a package for a player that steps right into thus core. Not a player that is 3-4 years out. Necas or Zegras would be my goal.

If we pull Necas with the Winnipeg pick + Harris + Mesar as an example, and draft Lindstrom, imagine a top 9....

Slaf - Suzuki - Lindstrom
Caufield - Dach - Necas
Newhook - Beck - Roy

 

[Deebs]

I'm kind of wondering what's with the recent obsession with Necas.

He's a solid enough player.....60 point guy, not physical, average defensively. Is it because he's an RFA or is there something more to his game that I'm missing? Is it just to round out our top 6?

Carolina has no cap issues next season and are actually in a great position and I think they'll replace Teravainen's expiring contract with Necas. They'll sign Guentzel to a good deal, but they have lots of space.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

I'm kind of wondering what's with the recent obsession with Necas.

He's a solid enough player.....60 point guy, not physical, average defensively. Is it because he's an RFA or is there something more to his game that I'm missing? Is it just to round out our top 6?

Carolina has no cap issues next season and are actually in a great position and I think they'll replace Teravainen's expiring contract with Necas. They'll sign Guentzel to a good deal, but they have lots of space.

I'd love to get Necas but I'm also wondering why he's in rumours, why would the Canes want to trade him?

 

[jaffy27]

You think we will be bottom 5 again next year?

No….sorry, that comment of Top Heavy fwds was for Chicago

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Would likely be 23rd if the Avs knock them out.

Ah I thought it could be higher than that. That’s too bad.

 

[Doublechin]

I'd love to get Necas but I'm also wondering why he's in rumours, why would the Canes want to trade him?

To create cap and because he's the weakest link from their POV that's about to get a hefty raise. He's nothing special tbh

 

[jaffy27]

To create cap and because he's the weakest link from their POV that's about to get a hefty raise. He's nothing special tbh

Probably more special then whoever we’d draft with our late first and the Colorado 2nd

 

[jaffy27]

Ah I thought it could be higher than that. That’s too bad.

They (Jets) finished with 110pts….how you figure that lol

 

[Doublechin]

Probably more special then whoever we’d draft with our late first and the Colorado 2nd

Maybe

But when accounting for the 6 to 7M a year he's about to get, you might not think he's that special value wise

 

[Riggins]

Ah I thought it could be higher than that. That’s too bad.

It's not going to be as high as 23rd, it will jump three spots up from 27th maximum since one of the Rangers and Canes will be in the ECF.

Assuming the Jets lose in round one or two, the pick will move up one spot every time one of these teams is also eliminated before the Conference finals:

Dallas
Vancouver
Florida

Dallas is in tough right now and I can't imagine the Canucks beating Edmonton next round with DeSmith in net.

 

[morhilane]

I'm kind of wondering what's with the recent obsession with Necas.

He's a solid enough player.....60 point guy, not physical, average defensively. Is it because he's an RFA or is there something more to his game that I'm missing? Is it just to round out our top 6?

Carolina has no cap issues next season and are actually in a great position and I think they'll replace Teravainen's expiring contract with Necas. They'll sign Guentzel to a good deal, but they have lots of space.

People are aware of Necas's warts, that's why they think he should be available for relatively cheap in a trade.

But I think the Habs should aim for a player in the 20-23 age range if they are looking to trade their second 1st round pick again. But I would personally keep it, since the Avs 2nd round pick will be late and the Habs don't have any other 2nd round pick. And they can't keep trading their late 1st/2nd round picks for immediate helps, those picks will be the cheap depth in a few years.

 

[TT1]

What worries me about Eiserman is that his draft year reminds me a lot of Barron's draft year in terms of progression. In Barron's draft -1 he looked like a surefire top 5, at worst top 10 pick, then his draft season comes along and he doesn't show much progression.

Of course it's a bit different because they play different positions but when you don't show progression at this level of play it starts raising red flags. Draft -1 dominance is a sign of high end tools but not following it up begs to question about how much progression we'll see once they play professional hockey, the NHL is a completely different level of course.

Imo progression is 1 of the most important aspects at junior level, players will have different paths of progression but you definitely wanna see a trend there. It indicates good habits/good learning ability/work ethic etc. Basically it gives you an indication into the things you can't see, the things that make or break players when they turn pro and have to grind day in day out.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Assuming the Jets pick is 23rd. How further up can we move if we add Barron/Harris/Stubble?

 

[MarkovsKnee]

It could be all bluff, last year when Hughes was asked about Leonard, he responded very enthusiastic and when was asked about Reinbacher, was neutral and had his poker face.

Could be that all GMs already know about our LHD depth and none really believe we will go there anyway.

One thing is for sure is that if we ended drafting Silayev, Buium or Dickenson, I will laugh a good deal, nobody will ever believe a single word of what he can tell before the drafts...

Yeah, that would cause absolute chaos if we end up drafting LD after he said 15 times we aren't drafting LD. Lol

I don't really want to trade down. Just take the forward you want at #5. I don't trust Ottawa at all and don't want to draft behind them.

I think Hughes is pretty well informed on who is likely to draft whom, though. He didn't trade down last year because he knew Arizona was taking Reinbacher at #6, and they really wanted Reinbacher, so they had to stay at #5.

The only way I see a trade down is if they really want Helenius and know they can trade back to take him.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

It's not going to be as high as 23rd, it will jump three spots up from 27th maximum since one of the Rangers and Canes will be in the ECF.

Assuming the Jets lose in round one or two, the pick will move up one spot every time one of these teams is also eliminated before the Conference finals:

Dallas
Vancouver
Florida

Dallas is in tough right now and I can't imagine the Canucks beating Edmonton next round with DeSmith in net.

Dallas is probably out 1st round. If Carolina gets to ECF over NYR in 2nd round then that's 2 division leaders out. Florida is very likely to make ECF, while Vancouver vs Edmonton 2nd round, I'd take Edmonton. 3 of 4 could be out. Dropping Winnipeg a little more up the draft ladder.

 

[Riggins]

Dallas is probably out 1st round. If Carolina gets to ECF over NYR in 2nd round then that's 2 division leaders out. Florida is very likely to make ECF, while Vancouver vs Edmonton 2nd round, I'd take Edmonton. 3 of 4 could be out. Dropping Winnipeg a little more up the draft ladder.

Yeah the Jets pick ends at #25 with this scenario which would be my best guess:

WCF: Edmonton vs. Colorado/Vegas
ECF: Florida vs. Carolina/NYR

 

[The Great Weal]

Should get a 25-30 goal scorer with Our 5th pick. Take my chances anyway, be his floor could be homerun pick. Top 10-13 in this draft going to be good player.

I won't include 2022 and 2023 since it's too early, but here are the recent 5th overall forwards:
-2021: Kent Johnson who is severely underperforming. Might bounce back but he hasn't been impressive at all.
-2019: Alex Turcotte. The guy's a bust.
-2018: Barrett Hayton, the guy is a 3rd liner at best.
-2017: Elias Pettersson, superstar player.
-2014: Michael Dal Colle, the guy is a bust.
-2013: Elias Lindholm who's been below average away from Gaudreau+Tkachuk
-2011: Ryan Strome, the guy is a mediocre player.
-2010: Nino Niederreiter, another mediocre player
-2009: Brayden Schenn who is a great player but never hit 70 points and has never been as good as Svechnikov

So out of all these players, only one has been easily better than Svechnikov. These are awful odds that you shouldn't be taking a chance with when you can get Svehcnikov instead.

Hughes would never do that trade.

Probably not because the Canes would never offer that.

The 5th going to be on ELC contract, let's him career an extra star for 3 years.

You can't guarantee that whatsoever based on my list

Svechnikov never hit 70 points once in his career. He's often injured.

Unless you are dead set on keeping his 18 year old rookie season for whatever reason, he's got 279 points in 324 games which is over a 70 point pace. He's also played pretty much every game in his first 4 seasons. He's missed 41 games in the past two seasons. Is Slaf also often injured because he's missed 43 in the same time frame?

Habs would lose 6 years of service.

And get a player they are praying becomes anywhere close to Svechnikov considering the list I provided you says their odds are very slim.

No, no deal. A year from now I would though. Our pick be higher and Habs be contenders. Montreal Will Have extra caproom. But not now

It doesn't matter because the Canes won't trade him. You aren't familiar with Svechnikov's game or you're grossly overrating draft picks.

 

[TT1]

I won't include 2022 and 2023 since it's too early, but here are the recent 5th overall forwards:
-2021: Kent Johnson who is severely underperforming. Might bounce back but he hasn't been impressive at all.
-2019: Alex Turcotte. The guy's a bust.
-2018: Barrett Hayton, the guy is a 3rd liner at best.
-2017: Elias Pettersson, superstar player.
-2014: Michael Dal Colle, the guy is a bust.
-2013: Elias Lindholm who's been below average away from Gaudreau+Tkachuk
-2011: Ryan Strome, the guy is a mediocre player.
-2010: Nino Niederreiter, another mediocre player
-2009: Brayden Schenn who is a great player but never hit 70 points and has never been as good as Svechnikov

So out of all these players, only one has been easily better than Svechnikov. These are awful odds that you shouldn't be taking a chance with when you can get Svehcnikov instead.

Probably not because the Canes would never offer that.

You can't guarantee that whatsoever based on my list

Unless you are dead set on keeping his 18 year old rookie season for whatever reason, he's got 279 points in 324 games which is over a 70 point pace. He's also played pretty much every game in his first 4 seasons. He's missed 41 games in the past two seasons. Is Slaf also often injured because he's missed 43 in the same time frame?

And get a player they are praying becomes anywhere close to Svechnikov considering the list I provided you says their odds are very slim.

It doesn't matter because the Canes won't trade him. You aren't familiar with Svechnikov's game or you're grossly overrating draft picks.

vacuum arguments like this fail to factor in reality, at #5 overall u can pick anyone left in the draft, even the players behind #5

don't only look at #5, look at the players behind #5 as well, i'm not saying pick #35 should be considered but at least the top 10 picks should be

for example in 2018 #5 was Hayton but #7 was Quinn Hughes, 2019 #5 was Turcotte but #6 was Seider etc.

 

[The Great Weal]

vacuum arguments like this fail to factor in reality, at #5 overall u can pick anyone left in the draft, even the players behind #5

don't only look at #5, look at the players behind #5 as well, i'm not saying pick #35 should be considered but at least the top 10 picks should be

I'm not cherry picking forwards here, I'm giving a list of the most recent forwards.

If I was evaluating a team's drafting ability then sure, but strictly looking at 5th overall picks I don't see the need to. It's easy to say "oh well we could have drafted player X who was drafted at 10 instead" in hindsight. Otherwise you can say you can draft a star with every pick which is just not realistic.

 

[TT1]

I'm not cherry picking forwards here, I'm giving a list of the most recent forwards.

If I was evaluating a team's drafting ability then sure, but strictly looking at 5th overall picks I don't see the need to. It's easy to say "oh well we could have drafted player X who was drafted at 10 instead" in hindsight.

ah ok you're talking about forwards only, missed that

but anyways i think strictly comparing the exact picks is pretty useless, you can't pick the players who went in front of the pick but players slightly behind the pick is fair game imo

general consensus from pro managements should be factored in as well (within a certain range), i wouldn't argue that Pastrnak going #25 and MDC going #5 in 2014 woulda been a valid pick but i'd argue that Nylander at 8 or Ehlers at 9 could be

 

[The Great Weal]

ah ok you're talking about forwards only, missed that

but anyways i think strictly comparing the exact picks is pretty useless, you can't pick the players who went in front of the pick but players slightly behind the pick is fair game imo

general consensus from pro managements should be factored in as well (within a certain range), i wouldn't argue that Pastrnak going #25 and MDC going #5 in 2014 woulda been a valid pick but i'd argue that Nylander at 8 or Ehlers at 9 could be

I still don't think this is a totally fair argument either. For instance, arguing that Necas/Vilardi/Suzuki would be a valid pick instead of Glass is very disingenuous.

 

[MrNasty]

Kiviharju didn't just drop only because of this injury. Plenty of kids this season had long term injuries and they haven't sank like Kiviharju has in the rankings.

Curious what else contributed to his drop?
He just started playing since the end of September. He is highly skilled and has great leadership ability. Is it just his size that automatically makes him drop?

 

[TT1]

I still don't think this is a totally fair argument either. For instance, arguing that Necas/Vilardi/Suzuki would be a valid pick instead of Glass is very disingenuous.

well this can be a pretty subjective argument but my own opinion is that pro management get too much benefit of the doubt and a small "margin of error" should be allowed for these type of arguments

for example in 2015 everyone thought it was crazy when Boston picked Zboril/Debrusk/Senyshyn right before Barzal/Connor/Chabot because those guys were much higher consensus picks