OT: Coronavirus XVII: Second Wave? More Like a Tsunami

[Drivesaitl]

I saw a news report that a swanky long standing Toronto hotel is opening again, and the manager says they are enthusiastically welcoming visitors to the historic place. However, guests MUST wear a mask during their entire stay anywhere in the hotel, when not in their rooms. Sorry, for me, if that is what it takes to stay in a hotel these days, I'll just hang out at home thankyou.

I don't really see the issue. The only time I spend in a hotel is in the room. Or a trip to the ice bucket that I would forego anyway in pandemic era or coming and going. Maybe a workout or two normally, but again during pandemic era I'm not working out in public use gyms.

 

[shoop]

I could really, REALLY care less if you want to believe me or not.

It's not just me. When people throw out lines like "the entire medical community" without support they aren't persuading anyone. People who share your priors will nod their heads. In the midst of the pandemic I question all sweeping statements of this nature.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

I could really, REALLY care less if you want to believe me or not. You can either go read up on it, or not, don't matter to me. If you want to be lazy and not read for yourself, great, it's not my job to spoon-feed you information.

You make a claim and then expect others to research your point for you? You can't be bothered to add a simple link and then call others lazy?

Bemusing.

 

[doulos]

COVID-19 Live Updates: News on coronavirus in Calgary for July 2 | Calgary Herald

Lots of interesting tidbits, but good for Safeway workers for voting to strike. What a raw deal for those folks who have to deal with idiots all day long.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Arizona had their highest daily death number. People having to be transported around to find an open ICU bed. Florida's ICU beds from 1600 available to ~1000 in a couple days. Texas seeing the same.

One dynamic born of a for profit medical system as well, there are some reports, specifically in Texas, about hospitals being hesitant to reveal their full bed situation because they want to keep areas of their hospitals open for the far more profitable elective surgeries. There is less money in just putting old people on ventilators for weeks on end when you can keep that consistent flow of big money surgeries flowing through the hospital that only need a short ICU stay afterwards. No pay days for the surgeons in people just laying there being treated by nurses.

Edit: Just looked up that Texas story again. Looks like the Governor got wise to what was going on and outright banned elective surgeries in a lot of areas yesterday. Good move.

This however ignoring that the covid facility, and even the covid ICU facility, should be a different facility or wing, entirely, than that used to treat regular patients so I can't really see legitimately how one is displacing the other in actual physical bed terms. Covid-19 as mentioned doesn't really require a lot of Dr. Intervention, its a lot of nursing intervention. Even at that its a lot of monitoring.

As people have suggested even here the health authority ought to have triaged this all from the start. Make one hospital in the region the Covid hospital. Confine all of that there, in one facility. This allowing all other hospitals to maintain elective surgery and service those waitlists. This is what COULD have been happening here the last 3 mths instead of hospitals sitting empty, staff getting paid.

I had surgery scheduled in March. It was cancelled. Its July and I'm not even on the list yet for rescheduling. The logjam was 3mths delay in electives getting performed. But the bureaucracy of AHS will somehow make that into 6mths to a year. I'd be surprised if I get the surgery at any point this year. I had already been waiting since September 2019 when surgery was recommended. Mine is a typical experience. If they publicized actual numbers it seems not unusual at all for people to wait 1-2yrs for elective, deemed non critical surgery. But those including such things as hip replacements, knee replacements etc. (not what I'm going in for)

Banning elective surgeries is a bad idea, for the reasons stated. Theres a whole other cost to doing that. Maybe they should ban medical services to idiots that get Covid-19 at Covid parties. (being flippant with that, yeah I know, they won't disclose)

 

[Drivesaitl]

What are these doctors saying? They say the virus mutated because of lockdowns, but then say less severe infections due to lower viral load.

The mutation thing doesn't really make sense. Mutations are random, is he suggesting that a same mutation is happening in sync all around the world because people are isolating and the virus is spreading less? Seems like...nonsense.

The viral load argument though, definitely possible. Someone that is in a cesspool of COVID-19 that sucks in virus from 50 people before finally realizing they are sick (probably what happened to many people in Italy and New York) probably has a better chance to get very sick than a guy that only got the virus from 1 brief interaction.

Mutations alone may be considered random. But the selection involved that favors one vs another is not random. Viruses strains that do not kill the host inevitably get transferred more than strains that kill their host. Assuming degree of public health sanitation and proper containment of the deceased.

Similarly the viral load and distancing could be also related. A virus that makes individuals only a little sick, those strains inevitably win out over strains that have their patients flat on their back not moving about. Assuming proper medical quarantine, safeguard protocols etc. As most pandemics blaze on its increasingly the less infected that are spreaders. Which means that plausibly strains that are getting hosts less sick, are the ones that are spread more still in gen pop. I don't know how this doesn't make sense.

 

[Dorian2]

Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don’t seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.
Health experts say it doesn’t look like the virus has mutated to be weaker, but this observation is likely a result of amplified testing capabilities and increased physical distancing measures.
More research is needed before scientists can say whether this is a phenomenon or simply due to better testing.

Is the New Coronavirus Getting Weaker? What to Know

Research has shown the virus mutated already, which is normal for a virus, but there’s no proof it’s going through more mutations affecting the severity of the disease it causes.

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2

 

[Drivesaitl]

COVID-19 Live Updates: News on coronavirus in Calgary for July 2 | Calgary Herald

Lots of interesting tidbits, but good for Safeway workers for voting to strike. What a raw deal for those folks who have to deal with idiots all day long.

Yeah, a company that for eons overpaid employees in dumb jobs twice what they were getting elsewhere, and that couldn't be competitive because of it, that is a bit player now in the market they once owned, that companies workers are going on strike just so that there can be no safeways anyway. lmao. Who shops at Safeway anymore? As a business they deserve not to exist. They've failed every market change for decades, and like other dinosaurs they go extinct.

lol, a lot of those "raw deal" employees that have been there forever (safeway has loads of those) got high paying jobs straight out of highschool in closed shop assignment because a relative worked there. The same people never having any ambition to leave, to get other meaningful employment because stocking groceries at Safeway paid inordinately.

Safeway has only 12 location in all of Edmonton. They ceased to be viable or an entity decades ago. Sobeys owns Safeway. Just close the remaining problematic Safeway locations.

 

[doulos]

Yeah, a company that for eons overpaid employees in dumb jobs twice what they were getting elsewhere, and that couldn't be competitive because of it, that is a bit player now in the market they once owned, that companies workers are going on strike just so that there can be no safeways anyway. lmao. Who shops at Safeway anymore? As a business they deserve not to exist. They've failed every market change for decades, and like other dinosaurs they go extinct.

lol, a lot of those "raw deal" employees that have been there forever (safeway has loads of those) got high paying jobs straight out of highschool in closed shop assignment because a relative worked there. The same people never having any ambition to leave, to get other meaningful employment because stocking groceries at Safeway paid inordinately.

Safeway has only 12 location in all of Edmonton. They ceased to be viable or an entity decades ago. Sobeys owns Safeway. Just close the remaining problematic Safeway locations.

Your issues with Safeway (the company) specifically aside, these people are working low paying jobs, dealing with potentially infected customers every day, and get treated like garbage. I have zero problems with them getting pay raises. They are providing an absolute essential service to our society. I'd love for all of these folks to go on strike and suddenly see what happens to our society.

I find this type of perspective that is being displayed here to make my skin crawl. Everyone wants their groceries, but god forbid we pay the people who actually have to make sure we get them, and are doing it in the middle of a pandemic, a wage that compensates them for the risks they are taking.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

Thank you for your comment. 99% of people wearing masks - even outside. Social distancing being practiced to the extent possible in the densely packed urban centers. Most companies still mandating or encouraging work from home.

Daily new cases in Tokyo were in the low 20s for a few weeks, but a recent spike associated with several clubs/bars has seen that number jump up into the 50s for the past several days. Total number of hospitalized in Tokyo is 280 ( and that number has been mostly static for three weeks. Only 10 patients listed as serious (this number dropping steadily since early June when there were 25 serious cases). 325 deaths in Tokyo area since the outbreak. For the nation as a whole 18723 confirmed cases, 16731 recovered and 974 deaths.

Contrary to some reports on this board, I have yet to meet anyone who thinks Japanese people are immune.

In my personal opinion, I’m worried about two things in Japan atm. 1) It seems that in about half the cases in the Tokyo area health officials are unable to trace the route of contagion. 2) Trains are a nightmare waiting to happen imo. I used public transport once about two weeks ago and I was shocked at how packed it was. Now I stick with walking and taxis.

Thanks for the detailed update. With approximately 99% of people wearing masks, is this an enforceable law or is it people just doing so out of good will to protect themselves and everyone they come in contact with?

For the most part, things do sound mostly positive over there and everyone is "buying in" to the protocols to reduce the spread. Just like anywhere, there's going to be pockets of cases which pop up which are untraceable to the origin. This is the curse of being an asymptomatic carrier...no idea you're infected but unknowingly passing it around. Best of luck and good health to you over there.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

The stable death rate/surging case rate is clearly related to a higher number of younger people testing positive now than before.

Basically, what's happened is the US has become the test case for what some people wanted all along: Send the young people to work & let the at-risk shelter in place. The problem with that is a 1% death rate on 50,000 new cases a new day is way more brutal than a 2.5% death rate on 3000 new cases. Well, that's one of the problems anyway. There are about 15 other reasons that approach is awful.

Either way, there's never been any evidence of a less virulent strain in the US.

where are you pulling these numbers from?

Among people <70 years old, infection fatality rates ranged from 0.00% to 0.26% with median of 0.05% (corrected, 0.00-0.23% with median of 0.04%).

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

not even close to 1%

 

[Drivesaitl]

Your issues with Safeway (the company) specifically aside, these people are working low paying jobs, dealing with potentially infected customers every day, and get treated like garbage. I have zero problems with them getting pay raises. They are providing an absolute essential service to our society. I'd love for all of these folks to go on strike and suddenly see what happens to our society.

I find this type of perspective that is being displayed here to make my skin crawl. Everyone wants their groceries, but god forbid we pay the people who actually have to make sure we get them, and are doing it in the middle of a pandemic, a wage that compensates them for the risks they are taking.

lmao. Safeway, for the exact reasons I describe, and due to being a Unionist hard liner shop for decades CEASED to exist. The Brand is only faux safeway to start with. A false banner designed to attract the very few who still brand identified with the place. Its Sobeys. Why should a Safeway worker have better plans, better pay, better pension, better conditions, than somebody working the EXACT same job role anywhere else?

No Safeway does not provide much of an absolute essential service. Actually they provide very little of it, and exceedingly limited market share. The vast majority of Edmontonians stocking up elsewhere on essentials. The remaining Safeways could all close and hardly be missed. I haven't shopped at one in probably 5 yrs and rarely at that. The irony is the reason we are having this exact discussion is Safeway employees threatening strike action, and thus not putting a priority on provision, during a pandemic...

I have no problem paying groceries, and would even pay more for groceries, and do, on occasion to vendors that actually provide good service, which I've rarely found at Safeway. Always had a dislike for the brand. Glad they're gone as a retailer, good riddance. If Safeway did what they were supposed to, actually provided premium customer experience, maybe I'd feel otherwise. For decades I've found safeway staff kind of uppity and unfriendly. Which was always strange given they work in grocery stores.

Safeway always seemed to be a smarmy kind of place setting up shop in more affluent neighborhoods. Closing locations in normal neighborhoods. For instance MWTC.

You'd think any remaining Safeway employees could feel good they even have jobs while many others are unemployed during a pandemic. They're lucky Sobeys even rescued the failing chain, and had a lot of financial headache for it.

Sobeys parent Empire posts massive $942.6-million loss amid Safeway struggles

Going on strike during a pandemic, I dunno, that's a particularly disgusting color blind move while many others are out of jobs completely.

 

[doulos]

lmao. Safeway, for the exact reasons I describe, and due to being a Unionist hard liner shop for decades CEASED to exist. The Brand is only faux safeway to start with. A false banner designed to attract the very few who still brand identified with the place. Its Sobeys. Why should a Safeway worker have better plans, better pay, better pension, better conditions, than somebody working the EXACT same job role anywhere else?

No Safeway does not provide much of an absolute essential service. Actually they provide very little of it, and exceedingly limited market share. The vast majority of Edmontonians stocking up elsewhere on essentials. The remaining Safeways could all close and hardly be missed. I haven't shopped at one in probably 5 yrs and rarely at that.

I have no problem paying groceries, and would even pay more for groceries, and do, on occasion to vendors that actually provide good service, which I've rarely found at Safeway. Always had a dislike for the brand. Glad they're gone as a retailer, good riddance. If Safeway did what they were supposed to, actually provided premium customer experience, maybe I'd feel otherwise. For decades I've found safeway staff kind of uppity and unfriendly. Which was always strange given they work in grocery stores.

Safeway always seemed to be a smarmy kind of place setting up shop in more affluent neighborhoods. Closing locations in normal neighborhoods. For instance MWTC.

As always there is a vast gulf between our stances. As always I am extremely happy about that.

 

[SK13]

where are you pulling these numbers from?

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data

not even close to 1%

On July 1: 50,000 tested positive in the US, 600 died. >1% daily ratio. This is CFR, not IFR.

Just because the difference in the CFR is attributable to a much higher number of young people does not mean older and at-risk individuals are not also infected. There is zero way to stop hundreds of elderly and immunocompromised people from being infected every day when the virus spread is this huge.

But even if we're pretending that every one of the 50,000 people was under 70 and go by 0.26% fatality rate. 0.26% of 50,000 is still twice as many dead as 2.5% of 3000.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

On July 1: 50,000 tested positive in the US, 600 died. >1% daily ratio. This is CFR, not IFR.

Just because the difference in the CFR is attributable to a much higher number of young people does not mean older and at-risk individuals are not also infected. There is zero way to stop hundreds of elderly and immunocompromised people from being infected every day when the virus spread is this huge.

But even if we're pretending that every one of the 50,000 people was under 70 and go by 0.26% fatality rate. 0.26% of 50,000 is still twice as many dead as 2.5% of 3000.

the simple fact that cases are continuing to go up in the States while the deaths haven't (if the numbers are to be believed)(yes 2-week lag attributes to that) maybe means they're finally protecting those at serious risk of dying...namely those in nursing homes and long-term care facilities
which was a problem in Canada, Italy and Sweden

 

[Drivesaitl]

As always there is a vast gulf between our stances. As always I am extremely happy about that.

Typical of you not to be able to respond to the post. You think I feel different? The only difference is I wouldn't initiate stating something like the bolded. That's more your area.

I thought your stated position (when you're not allowed to post in these threads) is that these Covid threads shouldn't exist. Why do you post in them?

Last week I asked you about your prior stance (for months) that "Coronavirus won't effect me in the slightest, so I don't care one bit about it"

You ignored clarifying that as well.

Unfortunately I know your history in the Coronavirus discussion threads and don't mind repeating your hot takes back at you.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

lmao. Safeway, for the exact reasons I describe, and due to being a Unionist hard liner shop for decades CEASED to exist. The Brand is only faux safeway to start with. A false banner designed to attract the very few who still brand identified with the place. Its Sobeys. Why should a Safeway worker have better plans, better pay, better pension, better conditions, than somebody working the EXACT same job role anywhere else?

No Safeway does not provide much of an absolute essential service. Actually they provide very little of it, and exceedingly limited market share. The vast majority of Edmontonians stocking up elsewhere on essentials. The remaining Safeways could all close and hardly be missed. I haven't shopped at one in probably 5 yrs and rarely at that. The irony is the reason we are having this exact discussion is Safeway employees threatening strike action, and thus not putting a priority on provision, during a pandemic...

I have no problem paying groceries, and would even pay more for groceries, and do, on occasion to vendors that actually provide good service, which I've rarely found at Safeway. Always had a dislike for the brand. Glad they're gone as a retailer, good riddance. If Safeway did what they were supposed to, actually provided premium customer experience, maybe I'd feel otherwise. For decades I've found safeway staff kind of uppity and unfriendly. Which was always strange given they work in grocery stores.

Safeway always seemed to be a smarmy kind of place setting up shop in more affluent neighborhoods. Closing locations in normal neighborhoods. For instance MWTC.

You'd think any remaining Safeway employees could feel good they even have jobs while many others are unemployed during a pandemic. They're lucky Sobeys even rescued the failing chain, and had a lot of financial headache for it.

Sobeys parent Empire posts massive $942.6-million loss amid Safeway struggles

Going on strike during a pandemic, I dunno, that's a particularly disgusting color blind move while many others are out of jobs completely.

I'm glad that you speak for all edmontonians.

 

[doulos]

Typical of you not to be able to respond to the post. You think I feel different? The only difference is I wouldn't initiate stating something like the bolded. That's more your area.

I thought your stated position (when you're not allowed to post in these threads) is that these Covid threads shouldn't exist. Why do you post in them?

Last week I asked you about your prior stance (for months) that "Coronavirus won't effect me in the slightest, so I don't care one bit about it"

You ignored clarifying that as well.

Unfortunately I know your history in the Coronavirus discussion threads and don't mind repeating your hot takes back at you.

Have at er bud. Glad to be on the polar opposite view of reality as you. We both seem content to be in fact, so we are good.

Hoping the Safeway workers get the hazard pay they deserve. Tough go for them.

 

[SK13]

the simple fact that cases are continuing to go up in the States while the deaths haven't (if the numbers are to be believed)(yes 2-week lag attributes to that) maybe means they're finally protecting those at serious risk of dying...namely those in nursing homes and long-term care facilities
which was a problem in Canada, Italy and Sweden

It was a problem everywhere in the Western world, including the US.

The point is the US is not protecting them. The ratio has tilted to young people as infection rates skyrocket due to premature re-openings in key hotspot states, but more older people are getting Coronavirus there than anywhere the virus has been contained.

That's why we have 1/10th the population but 1/25th the Covid-19 death rate WHILE the US is underreporting deaths.

 

[AM]

I'm glad that you speak for all edmontonians.

I shop at Safeway because I walk there. I’m pretty sure Safeway understands that people aren’t driving 40 minutes to get to the Safeway for the great deals.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Have at er bud. Glad to be on the polar opposite view of reality as you. We both seem content to be in fact, so we are good.

Hoping the Safeway workers get the hazard pay they deserve. Tough go for them.

You're taking an unsubstantiated position. You never answered why Safeway staff, particularly, should have more pay, rights, better job conditions, pension, benefits, than any employees of other grocery stores. But the illogical premise is you defending Safeway workers for wanting to go on strike DURING a pandemic which nullifies your argument about their providing such essential services, you know, during a pandemic. As stated its a deplorable color blind move by Safeway and their union.

Safeway is a bit player now in the marketplace. Really safeway doesn't exist anymore except in the name on select remaining storefronts. Its Sobeys. Sobeys has rarely provided good customer experience either. I don't care for either chain.

Theres a marked difference, always, in retailers like Save On, or Costco and always was. First time I went to a Save On in Vancouver I was amazed with the customer experience and wanted them here in Alberta. I stopped going to Costco because of where I live. Not being close to one, and the one store being way too busy. But its a good viable chain. I'll pay more to shop in a good retailer and thus Save on patronage is my preference. Like their products too.

Safeway doomed itself. It ceased being viable. I was correct in that Safeway ceased being viable due to heavy handed union tactics which apparently continue today, during a pandemic. Right or wrong the marketplace essentially dictates what overhead can look like. Safeway was a grossly inefficient chain with notorious high prices and failed. I'm not in the habit of applauding failed business plans.

 

[AM]

Have at er bud. Glad to be on the polar opposite view of reality as you. We both seem content to be in fact, so we are good.

Hoping the Safeway workers get the hazard pay they deserve. Tough go for them.

It’s not about deserves. It’s about whether the market will bare it.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I shop at Safeway because I walk there. I’m pretty sure Safeway understands that people aren’t driving 40 minutes to get to the Safeway for the great deals.

I'm pretty sure "Safeway" doesn't understand anything as Safeway doesn't exist.

Sobeys exists, at least continues to currently, but the decision to take over the remaining Safeway stores was a bad move, and has haunted the Sobeys chain ever since.

Its fascinating stuff ( I like reading business) but Sobeys at the time somehow felt that takeover of their long nemesis was somehow significant. It was meaningless. In the new marketplace their stiff competition was Superstore, Walmart, Costco, Save on. Safeway had stopped even being relevant by the time of the Sobeys takeover. Sobeys in effect wasted its money taking over the Safeway stores. Just seems like a pyrrhic victory.

In anycase we have many shopping options still during a pandemic and I'm thankful always, and say so, to the store staff working in these premises. I make a habit of saying "Thank you for working today" While always wearing a mask. Its just seemed like the right thing to do.

 

[doulos]

It’s not about deserves. It’s about whether the market will bare it.

A fair enough point. We will see soon enough if the market can bear it when they go on strike.

 

[oobga]

Mutations alone may be considered random. But the selection involved that favors one vs another is not random. Viruses strains that do not kill the host inevitably get transferred more than strains that kill their host. Assuming degree of public health sanitation and proper containment of the deceased.

Similarly the viral load and distancing could be also related. A virus that makes individuals only a little sick, those strains inevitably win out over strains that have their patients flat on their back not moving about. Assuming proper medical quarantine, safeguard protocols etc. As most pandemics blaze on its increasingly the less infected that are spreaders. Which means that plausibly strains that are getting hosts less sick, are the ones that are spread more still in gen pop. I don't know how this doesn't make sense.

I agree that there are reasons for a mutation to become dominant. I just don't agree that there has been a driver for a less deadly strain to become dominant. The more contagious more easy reproducing strain that researches have already claimed has taken over from a less contagious one. And it has been spreading just fine with ample hosts available to continue the spread.

The originally theory that I was arguing against was that somehow people isolating at home was helping give rise to a weaker less deadly strain. I don't think the logistics of that add up at all. People properly distancing/isolating would work against any such new strain from being able to be a dominant strain, the only way such a strain could become dominant would be by the same mutation happening in perfect sync across hosts because it wouldn't get a chance to exist all over the place via real transmission. Such perfect mutation happening all over the world in sync obviously would make no sense at all and be impossible. The current dominant strain that has done a lot of damage has at no point killed hosts nearly quickly enough for there to be a demand for it to be less deadly as it continues to spread like mad through human populations.

I don't think it would take that long either to discover weaker strains. Researchers are analyzing virus samples non-stop now looking for changes. Actually is happening right here at home: Alberta researchers genome sequence COVID-19 samples to track strains of virus, monitor spread