OT: Coronavirus XVII: Second Wave? More Like a Tsunami

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harpoon

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Del Preston

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It’s a stupid thing for the President to say in public. No doubt. Just curious though, are you definitively claiming that it won’t? There are many articles in which medical professionals claim that the virus may just die out on its own. Similar to SARS1. Other doctors disagree of course.

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests
Not claiming it won't but it's an idiotic thing to repeat, especially now when the virus is out of control in his country again.
 

oobga

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It’s a stupid thing for the President to say in public. No doubt. Just curious though, are you definitively claiming that it won’t? There are many articles in which medical professionals claim that the virus may just die out on its own. Similar to SARS1. Other doctors disagree of course.

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests

What are these doctors saying? They say the virus mutated because of lockdowns, but then say less severe infections due to lower viral load.

The mutation thing doesn't really make sense. Mutations are random, is he suggesting that a same mutation is happening in sync all around the world because people are isolating and the virus is spreading less? Seems like...nonsense.

The viral load argument though, definitely possible. Someone that is in a cesspool of COVID-19 that sucks in virus from 50 people before finally realizing they are sick (probably what happened to many people in Italy and New York) probably has a better chance to get very sick than a guy that only got the virus from 1 brief interaction.
 
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Soundwave

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What are these doctors saying? They say the virus mutated because of lockdowns, but then say less severe infections due to lower viral load.

The mutation thing doesn't really make sense. Mutations are random, is he suggesting that a same mutation is happening in sync all around the world because people are isolating and the virus is spreading less? Seems like...nonsense.

The viral load argument though, definitely possible. Someone that is in a cesspool of COVID-19 that sucks in virus from 50 people before finally realizing they are sick (probably what happened to many people in Italy and New York) probably has a better chance to get very sick than a guy that only got the virus from 1 brief interaction.

To be honest the only thing I think that's changed is the virus doesn't transmit as easily in outdoor sunlight/heat (but it still can do so).

The numbers would probably worse if this was November instead of July.
 

CycloneSweep

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To be honest the only thing I think that's changed is the virus doesn't transmit as easily in outdoor sunlight/heat (but it still can do so).

The numbers would probably worse if this was November instead of July.
Possibly but people are much more likely to stay inside and follow social distancing in the winter. When it's nice out people want to leave the house.
 

Delicious Pancakes

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What are these doctors saying? They say the virus mutated because of lockdowns, but then say less severe infections due to lower viral load.

The mutation thing doesn't really make sense. Mutations are random, is he suggesting that a same mutation is happening in sync all around the world because people are isolating and the virus is spreading less? Seems like...nonsense.

The viral load argument though, definitely possible. Someone that is in a cesspool of COVID-19 that sucks in virus from 50 people before finally realizing they are sick (probably what happened to many people in Italy and New York) probably has a better chance to get very sick than a guy that only got the virus from 1 brief interaction.

So what he's talking about with regards to the mutations are what you would expect from a virus actually. Like mutations in animal species for example a mutation that leads to increased rates of survival for the virus are going to lead to that strain of the virus (with new positive mutation) out-competing the virus' without that mutation.

From a survival/propagation perspective it doesn't serve the virus to kill its host because then it loses an environment in which to live and it has a worse chance of spreading to a new host. So positive mutations for the virus will be ones which help it live more harmoniously with its host, ie: not killing it, less severe symptoms. So it's a natural likelihood that even on opposite sides of the planet the novel coronavirus will evolve/mutate into a less deadly/severe variant.
 

Ritchie Valens

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Sep 24, 2007
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It’s a stupid thing for the President to say in public. No doubt. Just curious though, are you definitively claiming that it won’t? There are many articles in which medical professionals claim that the virus may just die out on its own. Similar to SARS1. Other doctors disagree of course.

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests

I'm pretty sure you previously stated you are in Japan. How are things over where you are? I haven't heard much about Japan or South Korea in the news lately so I'm presuming things are somewhat under control over there?
 

PerformanceMcOil

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Aug 2, 2005
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So what he's talking about with regards to the mutations are what you would expect from a virus actually. Like mutations in animal species for example a mutation that leads to increased rates of survival for the virus are going to lead to that strain of the virus (with new positive mutation) out-competing the virus' without that mutation.

From a survival/propagation perspective it doesn't serve the virus to kill its host because then it loses an environment in which to live and it has a worse chance of spreading to a new host. So positive mutations for the virus will be ones which help it live more harmoniously with its host, ie: not killing it, less severe symptoms. So it's a natural likelihood that even on opposite sides of the planet the novel coronavirus will evolve/mutate into a less deadly/severe variant.

That's only true if the host dies before the virus can spread though, which probably isn't a factor for COVID-19. The doctor from the article seems to be claiming that in evolving to evade our immune system, it is reducing the negative health effects. This is possible, but like many 'facts' about the virus, it is hard to judge how accurate it is.
 
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harpoon

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Dec 23, 2005
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What are these doctors saying? They say the virus mutated because of lockdowns, but then say less severe infections due to lower viral load.

The mutation thing doesn't really make sense. Mutations are random, is he suggesting that a same mutation is happening in sync all around the world because people are isolating and the virus is spreading less? Seems like...nonsense.

The viral load argument though, definitely possible. Someone that is in a cesspool of COVID-19 that sucks in virus from 50 people before finally realizing they are sick (probably what happened to many people in Italy and New York) probably has a better chance to get very sick than a guy that only got the virus from 1 brief interaction.
I just posted a link. As far as the mechanisms are concerned I defer to your expertise as a biogeneticist.
 

harpoon

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I'm pretty sure you previously stated you are in Japan. How are things over where you are? I haven't heard much about Japan or South Korea in the news lately so I'm presuming things are somewhat under control over there?
Thank you for your comment. 99% of people wearing masks - even outside. Social distancing being practiced to the extent possible in the densely packed urban centers. Most companies still mandating or encouraging work from home.

Daily new cases in Tokyo were in the low 20s for a few weeks, but a recent spike associated with several clubs/bars has seen that number jump up into the 50s for the past several days. Total number of hospitalized in Tokyo is 280 ( and that number has been mostly static for three weeks. Only 10 patients listed as serious (this number dropping steadily since early June when there were 25 serious cases). 325 deaths in Tokyo area since the outbreak. For the nation as a whole 18723 confirmed cases, 16731 recovered and 974 deaths.

Contrary to some reports on this board, I have yet to meet anyone who thinks Japanese people are immune.

In my personal opinion, I’m worried about two things in Japan atm. 1) It seems that in about half the cases in the Tokyo area health officials are unable to trace the route of contagion. 2) Trains are a nightmare waiting to happen imo. I used public transport once about two weeks ago and I was shocked at how packed it was. Now I stick with walking and taxis.
 

McJadeddog

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Sep 25, 2003
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It’s a stupid thing for the President to say in public. No doubt. Just curious though, are you definitively claiming that it won’t? There are many articles in which medical professionals claim that the virus may just die out on its own. Similar to SARS1. Other doctors disagree of course.

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests

So that doctor was widely refuted by pretty much the entire medical community, so I wouldn't be putting much into that article at all. It was a big issue when he said that, and he caught a LOT of flack for it.
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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So what he's talking about with regards to the mutations are what you would expect from a virus actually. Like mutations in animal species for example a mutation that leads to increased rates of survival for the virus are going to lead to that strain of the virus (with new positive mutation) out-competing the virus' without that mutation.

From a survival/propagation perspective it doesn't serve the virus to kill its host because then it loses an environment in which to live and it has a worse chance of spreading to a new host. So positive mutations for the virus will be ones which help it live more harmoniously with its host, ie: not killing it, less severe symptoms. So it's a natural likelihood that even on opposite sides of the planet the novel coronavirus will evolve/mutate into a less deadly/severe variant.

Is there actually a demand though for the virus to become less deadly or infectious? It was never that deadly among younger populations, and it was and continues to spread just fine. The one mutation that researchers think they discovered as the now dominant strain actually increased the viruses infectiousness (stability on surfaces and in air), and with more protein spikes, made it more easily find an orientation to bind to cells. And on and on it goes infecting people in a similar fashion, relative to the distancing measures areas have in place. Only, now we have all the elderly people locked away and they have to sit there and pray it doesn't get into their bubbles, which is probably pretty freaky in places like Arizona, Texas and Florida right now. In places that are just a plain old disaster with little hope to contain it, it is going on wiping out lots of elderly people like it did in 1st world regions that it was able to take by surprise.
 
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McXLNC97

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Arizona hit a record high for deaths today. All these thousands of cases each day across states like Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, are steadily going to fill the hospitals to capacity, and once that occurs, your going to start seeing 1500+ people dying again daily in the US.
 

oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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It’s a stupid thing for the President to say in public. No doubt. Just curious though, are you definitively claiming that it won’t? There are many articles in which medical professionals claim that the virus may just die out on its own. Similar to SARS1. Other doctors disagree of course.

Coronavirus is getting weaker, could disappear without vaccine, doctor suggests

If there is a weaker strain that the virus somehow mutating in perfect harmony among isolated people around the world and somehow becoming a dominant strain, I suppose researchers will sequence it and figure out how it's different. Guess we will see.
 

Senor Catface

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Jul 25, 2006
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So that doctor was widely refuted by pretty much the entire medical community, so I wouldn't be putting much into that article at all. It was a big issue when he said that, and he caught a LOT of flack for it.

Yeah, I don't think there's a lot of reading and research done when some of these links are posted.
 

SK13

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Jul 23, 2007
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The stable death rate/surging case rate is clearly related to a higher number of younger people testing positive now than before.

Basically, what's happened is the US has become the test case for what some people wanted all along: Send the young people to work & let the at-risk shelter in place. The problem with that is a 1% death rate on 50,000 new cases a new day is way more brutal than a 2.5% death rate on 3000 new cases. Well, that's one of the problems anyway. There are about 15 other reasons that approach is awful.

Either way, there's never been any evidence of a less virulent strain in the US.
 
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Bryanbryoil

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Sep 13, 2004
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The stable death rate/surging case rate is clearly related to a higher number of younger people testing positive now than before.

Basically, what's happened is the US has become the test case for what some people wanted all along: Send the young people to work & let the at-risk shelter in place. The problem with that is a 1% death rate on 50,000 new cases a new day is way more brutal than a 2.5% death rate on 3000 new cases. Well, that's one of the problems anyway. There are about 15 other reasons that approach is awful.

Either way, there's never been any evidence of a less virulent strain in the US.

I have heard that the NY strain was likely the more lethal Italian strain. It does appear that there are more than 1 strain out there and that at least 1 is more lethal than the other. Is the death rate as high as 1%? I maybe wrong but Ive seen a lot of people saying that it is <1%.
 

shoop

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Arizona hit a record high for deaths today. All these thousands of cases each day across states like Texas, Florida, California, Arizona, are steadily going to fill the hospitals to capacity

I'm only familiar with Florida, but what you state is definitely not the case there. The recent spike in covid cases in Florida has been made up primarily of mild cases that don't require hospitalization. Florida is operating a little over 80% of capacity for regular and ICU beds.

That "steadily going to fill the hospitals claim" just isn't happening in Florida with the current spike in cases they are seeing. The cases appear to be milder and don't require the levels of hospitalization feared.
 
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McJadeddog

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If it was 'pretty much the entire medical community' it should be pretty easy for you to provide some sort of support for this claim.

I'm not here to do research for you, lol. Go read on your own, its easy enough. I would suggest /r/covid19 if you are really interested in following COVID from a scientific POV. Don't follow /r/coronavirus as that sub is a mess of misinformation and hyperbole. The /r/covid sub is filled with actual doctors and such (similar to /r/science) and it is heavily moderated to keep things on point. It's a very good sub for discussing COVID scientific papers.
 

shoop

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I'm not here to do research for you, lol. Go read on your own, its easy enough.

That's fine. Why would anyone listen to your opinions?

Sorry to call you out for making stuff up. However, every citizen should question such blanket statements. The fact you aren't willing to provide any support means it is just an opinion as I don't see the 'entire medical community' represented as you claim.
 

McJadeddog

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Sep 25, 2003
20,186
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Regina, Saskatchewan
That's fine. Why would anyone listen to your opinions?

Sorry to call you out for making stuff up. However, every citizen should question such blanket statements. The fact you aren't willing to provide any support means it is just an opinion as I don't see the 'entire medical community' represented as you claim.

I could really, REALLY care less if you want to believe me or not. You can either go read up on it, or not, don't matter to me. If you want to be lazy and not read for yourself, great, it's not my job to spoon-feed you information.
 
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