Coronavirus discussion thread (no political debates) V

[Jojalu]

Ontario still seeing a nice steady increase with little impact on the critical hospital metrics.

Not true at all. Hospitalizations have jumped from 38 to 86 in less than 2 weeks. ICU cases have tripled. Since you have obviously been following along, you must know that there is quite a lag in between reported cases before hospitalizations, then another lag before deaths.

Why people are concerned is because it's still holding at 1% of people who contract the virus dies. So when cases start jumping rapidly, it's only a matter of time before everything else goes up.

I am not one to vote for another lockdown, and I certainly don't want to see businesses suffer, but we can't let what happened in Florida and Texas happen here

 

[Nineteen67]

Not true at all. Hospitalizations have jumped from 38 to 86 in less than 2 weeks. ICU cases have tripled. Since you have obviously been following along, you must know that there is quite a lag in between reported cases before hospitalizations, then another lag before deaths.

Why people are concerned is because it's still holding at 1% of people who contract the virus dies. So when cases start jumping rapidly, it's only a matter of time before everything else goes up.

I am not one to vote for another lockdown, and I certainly don't want to see businesses suffer, but we can't let what happened in Florida and Texas happen here

Where do you see syndromic surveillance and hospitalizations in Ontario.

 

[Jojalu]

Where do you see syndromic surveillance and hospitalizations in Ontario.

They release the number everyday. In fact it's the only number worth looking at.

Cases are hugely under reported, so the only indicator of what is happening is hospitalizations. Which is why Europe is starting to panic again, as after weeks of cases climbing, they are starting to see massive spikes.

 

[Jojalu]

Where do you see syndromic surveillance and hospitalizations in Ontario.

I think before people freak out that cases are rising,, they need to remember that when we first had a lockdown, things looked to be the same as right now,, but since we were hardly testing anyone, it was far more out of control.

Because it got into LTC homes, the mortality rate seemed a little higher, but it still is and always has been atound 1%.

So when 60 people were dying a day, there had to be at least 6000 a day infected, not the 600 that was accounted for.

This is why we are not rushing into a lockdown. The government ( although I guess some would argue otherwise) does not want to cripple us. They don't want to hand out money to people all day every day. They hoped that we would figure out how to live through this responsibly. For the most part we have.

 

[Nineteen67]

They release the number everyday. In fact it's the only number worth looking at.

Cases are hugely under reported, so the only indicator of what is happening is hospitalizations. Which is why Europe is starting to panic again, as after weeks of cases climbing, they are starting to see massive spikes.

All I look at is hospitalizations and ICU and the percent of ER visits with CLI, ILI and Pneumonia - I cant find this for Ontario.
They have lots of graphs of cases but I don’t see any by hospitalizations

 

[Jojalu]

All I look at is hospitalizations and ICU and the percent of ER visits with CLI, ILI and Pneumonia - I cant find this for Ontario.
They have lots of graphs of cases but I don’t see any by hospitalizations

Ontario Health released one today. Aug 24 there were 38 people in hospital. Today there were 82.

We were down to under 10 in ICU and now back to 30.

Still in pretty great shape when compared to other first world countries

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Ontario still seeing a nice steady increase with little impact on the critical hospital metrics.

I think we need to wait 2/3 weeks to see what comes of these new cases and where hospitalization and death rates are then. If they are relatively low as they are now, then we can proceed cautiously as we are now. If those numbers start jumping, then there will be serious cause for concern as the colder months hit and everyone will be spending more time indoors.

 

[Nineteen67]

Ontario Health released one today. Aug 24 there were 38 people in hospital. Today there were 82.

We were down to under 10 in ICU and now back to 30.

Still in pretty great shape when compared to other first world countries

I think it would be better to be going through this in Jun-Aug rather Sep-Nov.
Did it ever reach an epidemic in Ontario?

 

[Wafflewhipper]

I think we need to wait 2/3 weeks to see what comes of these new cases and where hospitalization and death rates are then. If they are relatively low as they are now, then we can proceed cautiously as we are now. If those numbers start jumping, then there will be serious cause for concern as the colder months hit and everyone will be spending more time indoors.

Where is everyone getting this people spend more time in doors Deal makes any difference. I’m not seeing the classification anywhere that says this thing only spreads indoors. New boundary for spread I wasn’t aware of or something. The f***er spreads anywhere. Everyone just going full bore dictates the spread not some fictional boundaries that seem to be made up. Why do you believe that kind of Sh!t anyways. Comments like this is becoming common and common doesn’t me it’s right is all I’ll say.

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Where is everyone getting this people spend more time in doors Deal makes any difference. I’m not seeing the classification anywhere that says this thing only spreads indoors. New boundary for spread I wasn’t aware of or something. The f***er spreads anywhere. Everyone just going full bore dictates the spread not some fictional boundaries that seem to be made up. Why do you believe that kind of Sh!t anyways. Comments like this is becoming common and common doesn’t me it’s right is all I’ll say.

We're required to wear masks indoors, not outdoors. I'm sure there is a reason for that. In the same way we can sit on a patio without a mask on as opposed to sitting inside a restaurant and be required to.

I don't walk down the street wearing a mask. But I'm also not going to a ribfest in a park standing shoulder to shoulder with everyone, where yes, the chances of it spreading would be higher.

 

[Nineteen67]

I think we need to wait 2/3 weeks to see what comes of these new cases and where hospitalization and death rates are then. If they are relatively low as they are now, then we can proceed cautiously as we are now. If those numbers start jumping, then there will be serious cause for concern as the colder months hit and everyone will be spending more time indoors.

Yes. I think it would have been better to loosen up before people get indoors

From Muge Cevik. Paper out reviewing transmission dynamics.

*Transmission is complex and multidimensional & depends on many factors: contact pattern, individual factors, environment, & socioeconomic factors are at play
*Sustained contact drives clusters and infections --> close family/friends and gatherings of them the highest risk
*70% of cases do not go on to infect anyone else
*80% of new infections come from 20% of cases
*Window of infectiousness is short, 5-7 days around symptom onset
*While asymptomatic patients can transmit the virus to others, evidence suggests that asymptomatic index cases transmit to fewer secondary cases. Attack rates are highly correlated with symptom severity
*Transmission is affected by host factors, including host defense mechanisms and age. For instance, given the same exposure, susceptibility to infection increases with age, higher in > 60yo compared to younger or middle-aged adults.
*Contact tracing studies suggest an almost 20x higher risk of transmission indoors compared with outdoor environments.
*Prolonged indoor contact in a crowded and poorly ventilated environment increases the risk of transmission substantially.
*Global figures suggest that COVID-19 pandemic is strongly shaped by structural inequities, adverse living and working conditions
*Households in socioeconomically deprived areas are more likely to be overcrowded, increasing the risk of transmission within the household. These disparities also shape the strong geographic heterogeneities observed in the burden of cases and deaths.

 

[Jojalu]

I think it would be better to be going through this in Jun-Aug rather Sep-Nov.
Did it ever reach an epidemic in Ontario?

I would say not really. It was in the LTC homes, but not in the general community

 

[Wafflewhipper]

We're required to wear masks indoors, not outdoors. I'm sure there is a reason for that. In the same way we can sit on a patio without a mask on as opposed to sitting inside a restaurant and be required to.

I don't walk down the street wearing a mask. But I'm also not going to a ribfest in a park standing shoulder to shoulder with everyone, where yes, the chances of it spreading would be higher.

Its being minimized with misinformation and a attempt to scale back the seriousness. The same risks apply now as before unless its mutated weaker or stronger. Many died on respirators Before so respirators available doesn’t change the fatality rate any. It simply makes them available.

 

[Nineteen67]

I would say not really. It was in the LTC homes, but not in the general community

I didn’t think it could be even close.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Why do you feel it'll be a gong show? Is it nervousness that the protocols aren't in place, or that patrons won't follow them?

Patrons won't follow the protocol. Say or feel however you want about masks being mandatory, the amount of people dumbfounded that they have to wear one while inside our restaurant when they've gotta pee is astounding. It happens at least once a day even though we have it clearly posted at both entrances that a mask must be worn when inside our establishment. I've always felt that it's the same thing as "no shirt, no shoes, no service".

 

[Sens]

Ontario is beginning to get smashed

 

[Bluelines]

I knew there were 2 ways this virus could transmit, 1) touch, 2) droplets but there is third transmission method that they are now saying is probable, aerosol transmission, which was described as it behaves like smoke would, tiny particles so light that they stay suspended in air for long periods of time. Fun stuff... this virus just gets better every day...

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Patrons won't follow the protocol. Say or feel however you want about masks being mandatory, the amount of people dumbfounded that they have to wear one while inside our restaurant when they've gotta pee is astounding. It happens at least once a day even though we have it clearly posted at both entrances that a mask must be worn when inside our establishment. I've always felt that it's the same thing as "no shirt, no shoes, no service".

Good luck! Hopefully patrons do their small part for themselves as well as the restaurant staff. Doing so to help keep all businesses open benefits everyone.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

1 death under 20 during entire COVID-19.
out of 3 million.

Motor vehicle deaths literally 15x higher.

And I wont even mention the Suicide rate.

 

[Jojalu]

View attachment 368565

1 death under 20 during entire COVID-19.
out of 3 million.

View attachment 368566

Motor vehicle deaths literally 15x higher.

And I wont even mention the Suicide rate.

I am not clear what your point is? I think pretty much everyone knows by now that those under 20 are not going to perish from this. What people are worried about is them spreading it to people who will.

Comparing an infectious disease to suicide and car accidents really doesn't make any sense.

Where are you getting these suicide numbers? Last number I saw was 1480 suicides per day worldwide, which is slightly up worldwide,, while since the start of the pandemic the average has been 5600 people per day die worldwide

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I am not clear what your point is?

Isolate gramma in the Nursing home.

Young people lead normal lives.

Preventing cases is for the most part impossible.

 

[Jojalu]

Isolate gramma in the Nursing home.

Young people lead normal lives.

Preventing cases is for the most part impossible.

I agree that it is almost impossible to prevent cases.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Good luck! Hopefully patrons do their small part for themselves as well as the restaurant staff. Doing so to help keep all businesses open benefits everyone.

I share the same feelings and am hoping people will be civil.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I agree that it is almost impossible to prevent cases.

Timeline:

March 2020 - flatten the curve.
May 2020 - curve flat
May 2020 "case prevention" <--- where the dumbness started.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

300 people die in Ontario everyday.

The fact that a few die of COVID isn't significant.

Sorry.

Viruses gunna virus.

Older people at risk can self isolate. And wait for the world to make the first human coronavirus vacccine. (All previous attempts have failed).