Connor McDavid Point Projections

[Mr Positive]

If I remember correctly, McDavid got a 10C

he doesn't have a number score on HF, and other 2015 draftees are listed under their teams. I assume they just haven't got around to it, for whatever reason

edit: I just noticed a few 2015 high profile prospects like Marner not listed yet either.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

 

[lorwood]

https://www.youtube.com/user/GrantlandNetwork

 

[Narnia]

55-65 I think it realistic

Anyone thinking he'll get more than 80 will be very disappointed

What about the people who voted less than 30 points.

 

[40oz]

What about the people who voted less than 30 points.

Those are undercover government agents sent to destroy the Oilers through the internet.

 

[McFlyingV]

he doesn't have a number score on HF, and other 2015 draftees are listed under their teams. I assume they just haven't got around to it, for whatever reason

edit: I just noticed a few 2015 high profile prospects like Marner not listed yet either.

He does have a 10C if you look at NHL draft section on HF's front page. Eichel got a 9B and Strome got an 8.5C. Marner hasn't been rated yet.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl-draft

 

[McFlyingV]

Based on what shining against those oilers prospects is a different thing than playing against the big boys.In those 3 vs 3 games the goaltender was terrible plain and simple.

I don't see any problem with thinking he will excel in 3 on 3 if you watched him play all season long. His skating and stick handling is already better than most players in the NHL and he thinks the game better than most of them too. The only part of his game that isn't going to be top notch right away is his physicality and strength, but thats not even super important in the way he plays the game. Especially not at 3 on 3 which is going to rely heavily on skating, puck handling, and hockey IQ. Three things that McDavid is already elite at.

 

[Namtsua]

He does have a 10C if you look at NHL draft section on HF's front page. Eichel got a 9B and Strome got an 8.5C. Marner hasn't been rated yet.

http://www.hockeysfuture.com/nhl-draft

I knew I wasn't crazy Also, it was talked about a bit in one of the other McDavid threads (might be the general one).

 

[Up the Irons]

I don't see any problem with thinking he will excel in 3 on 3 if you watched him play all season long. His skating and stick handling is already better than most players in the NHL and he thinks the game better than most of them too. The only part of his game that isn't going to be top notch right away is his physicality and strength, but thats not even super important in the way he plays the game. Especially not at 3 on 3 which is going to rely heavily on skating, puck handling, and hockey IQ. Three things that McDavid is already elite at.

I would argue that his skating is already better than ALL the players in the NHL (or any league), and, other than Datsyuk and Patrick Kane, his stickling is better than nearly all.

 

[McFlyingV]

I would argue that his skating is already better than ALL the players in the NHL (or any league), and, other than Datsyuk and Patrick Kane, his stickling is better than nearly all.

I definitely wouldn't argue that thats out of the question, I'd just rather wait to see him playing on the same ice as all those players before making a statement like that. His combination of top speed, acceleration, and agility is something truly spectacular.

 

[Aceboogie]

Its actually really tough to predict. He could get anywhere from 55 to 80. Depends on usage, ice Time, teammates, NHL rule changes

If he's developed slow and given easier minutes (around 15 a night) with average linemates, and NHL stays the way it is, probably 55

If he plays 18 a night with hall/eberle and NHL returns to more pp and opens the game up, 80 isn't crazy. Its difficult, but doable

 

[PBandJ]

50 would be a good year on this sad sack team.

 

[Up the Irons]

I definitely wouldn't argue that thats out of the question, I'd just rather wait to see him playing on the same ice as all those players before making a statement like that. His combination of top speed, acceleration, and agility is something truly spectacular.

no doubt. He'll have an adjustment period, to get used to playing against considerably better Dman and some forwards that can keep up to him.

I guess the real question is how long it takes him to go from head and shoulders better than everyone in Junior to one of the best forwards in the game. I'm going to guess that he will be there by the end of 15/16, like a top 20 foward. Not in points (well maybe), but he'll end the season playing a calibre that is on par with guys in the 10 - 20 range.

The way I see it, his low-end is on par with Tavares. IOW, in the conversation for best C in the game.

His highend is in the conversation for best C ever.

 

[McGoMcD]

no doubt. He'll have an adjustment period, to get used to playing against considerably better Dman and some forwards that can keep up to him.

I guess the real question is how long it takes him to go from head and shoulders better than everyone in Junior to one of the best forwards in the game. I'm going to guess that he will be there by the end of 15/16, like a top 20 foward. Not in points (well maybe), but he'll end the season playing a calibre that is on par with guys in the 10 - 20 range.

The way I see it, his low-end is on par with Tavares. IOW, in the conversation for best C in the game.

His highend is in the conversation for best C ever.

Ya, the thing about McDavid is he also think the game at such a high speed. While every one is talking about his skating, and it is phenomenal, he thinks the game akin to Gretzky. See the article where a scout said McDavid has the two second advantage like Gretzky. He sees the play 2 seconds before every one else. Any way, when you think the game that way going to the NHL isn't such a hard transition, he will probably actually find it easier in some ways as players are thinking faster and closer to him.

Bottom line is it will be fun to watch.

 

[ManofSteel55]

How about if we don't get our expectations too high here? 50 - 55 points is a good rookie season, let's just hope for that.

 

[Faelko]

How about if we don't get our expectations too high here? 50 - 55 points is a good rookie season, let's just hope for that.

If he plays all 82, he'll exceed that. I'm expecting in that 65-70 range.

 

[Arpeggio]

I don't know how anyone can honestly say that they're expecting 50-55 points from McDavid. He's the best prospect to enter the league in ten years, and he's playing on a team with three other first overalls and Jordan Eberle.

We expected 50 points from Taylor Hall and RNH. It's okay to expect more from McDavid, he deserves it.

 

[LTIR]

I don't know how anyone can honestly say that they're expecting 50-55 points from McDavid. He's the best prospect to enter the league in ten years, and he's playing on a team with three other first overalls and Jordan Eberle.

We expected 50 points from Taylor Hall and RNH. It's okay to expect more from McDavid, he deserves it.

55 points would put him ahead of every 18yo rookie aside from McKinnon, Skinner and Kane in the last 10 yrs..


Tavares : 54
Stamkos: 46
Duchene: 44
Hall : 42
Seguin: 22
RNH: 52
Landeskog: 52

Expecting 55 from him is a lot more realistic than what over 22% here are voting for.. 80+ points ie top 3 in league lead as a 18yo.

At 55 pts McDavid would be among some very good company based on point totals of last season... This is new NHL... 150pt seasons are a thing of the past.

Also, the option is 50-59 not 50-55

 

[Arpeggio]

55 points would put him ahead of every 18yo rookie aside from McKinnon, Skinner and Kane in the last 10 yrs..


Tavares : 54
Stamkos: 46
Duchene: 44
Hall : 42
Seguin: 22
RNH: 52
Landeskog: 52

Expecting 55 from him is a lot more realistic than what over 22% here are voting for.. 80+ points ie top 3 in league lead as a 18yo.

At 55 pts McDavid would be among some very good company based on point totals of last season... This is new NHL... 150pt seasons are a thing of the past.

Also, the option is 50-59 not 50-55

I was responding to the poster that said he was expecting 50-55. McDavid is a better player than McKinnon and Skinner were, and he should be better than Kane too. All I'm saying is that it's okay to have exceptional expectations for an exceptional player.

 

[McFlyingV]

I was responding to the poster that said he was expecting 50-55. McDavid is a better player than McKinnon and Skinner were, and he should be better than Kane too. All I'm saying is that it's okay to have exceptional expectations for an exceptional player.

I agree, he's a better prospect and more NHL ready than any player listed there. I went conservative at 60-69, but would not be surprised if he broke into the 70's or low 80's depending on how well the oilers play, and how league scoring is next year.

 

[LTIR]

I was responding to the poster that said he was expecting 50-55. McDavid is a better player than McKinnon and Skinner were, and he should be better than Kane too. All I'm saying is that it's okay to have exceptional expectations for an exceptional player.

fair enough... reasonable expectations are fine but expecting him to ourscore Ovechkin (53G 81 pts ..top5 in league scoring) or even Giroux (73pts) as a rookie is setting up yourself for disappointment.

Sure 100+ points would be great as an Oilers fan but I just dont think a 25G - 35A 60pt rookie season should be considered a disappointing one.

 

[McJadeddog]

I would argue that his skating is already better than ALL the players in the NHL (or any league), and, other than Datsyuk and Patrick Kane, his stickling is better than nearly all.

the only player i can remember who can anything approaching his "first step acceleration" is pavel bure.... the closest example i can think of for his agility would be patrick kane

stick handling is tougher to gauge in my opinion, as things that work in junior (and look fantastic) generally won't work in the NHL.... i do think its safe to say that his stick handling is going to be better than most in the NHL, potentially even near the top... but this aspect is simply too difficult to judge right now

we'll have to wait to see what he looks like against NHLers, but his skating is the thing i'm worried the least about, that is for sure

 

[McJadeddog]

I was responding to the poster that said he was expecting 50-55. McDavid is a better player than McKinnon and Skinner were, and he should be better than Kane too. All I'm saying is that it's okay to have exceptional expectations for an exceptional player.

i'm not entirely sold that he will be a better player than kane, i *think* he *might* be, but i'm not 100% (or even 80%) sure of it... kane is a top-5 guy in the world who would have led the league in scoring this season if not for injury

truth be told, if mcdavid becomes even 85-90% of what kane is, i'll be more than happy

 

[CupofOil]

Content with a 50-55 pt rookie season (a relatively healthy season) and more than happy if he becomes 85-90% of what Kane is?

I understand having guarded optimism because of so many past disappointments but if there's any player to have sky high expectations of, it's this kid.

The skating, hands, hockey sense and overall demeanor. The entire package is once in a generation type stuff. I'd be very surprised if he only had a 50-60 point rookie season if healthy and if he doesn't have a better career than Kane (excellent player obviously but really only a 30 goal PPG player), I'd be pretty disappointed to be honest.

I don't expect a Crosby-esque rookie season and a better than Crosby career but I think it's reasonable to dream big with McDavid. I expect 70-80 points next season, he's going to score bushels of points on the PP with Hall and Eberle to play fetch with. That alone will really boost his point totals. Also, keep in mind that he'll have more offensive support than most #1 overalls have coming into the league so he should have more freedom to create offense without teams drawing their entire focus to his line.

He'll have an adjustment period I'd imagine getting used to the speed and physicality of the league but once he figures it out? Oh man. It's going to be a sight to behold and I bet he'll start figuring out it out by the holiday season.

 

[Calgary McOilers]

i'm not entirely sold that he will be a better player than kane, i *think* he *might* be, but i'm not 100% (or even 80%) sure of it... kane is a top-5 guy in the world who would have led the league in scoring this season if not for injury

truth be told, if mcdavid becomes even 85-90% of what kane is, i'll be more than happy

Don't worry, he's going to be BETTER than Kane (barring injuries). So good that you wouldn't want to trade one McDavid for a package that included all the Kanes in the NHL.

(I am usually quite conservative in my predictions but McDavid made me a believer).