Connor McDavid Point Projections

[bzur]

It seems nobody is saying the most awesomely appropriate answer, which is he will get 99 points and all of Edmonton will giggle excitedly at the ensuing headlines.

 

[Dorian2]

Treat him like he's 18? You can bet that opposing teams won't be treating him like an 18 year-old; rather they'll be treating him as a legitimate offensive threat who can single-handedly win games, because that's what he will be come this season. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid will be treating other team's defensive players and goalies like little kids pushing chairs around the ice while the big boys shinny around them.

Anyways, McDavid is an anomaly, so people should stop comparing him to past 1st overalls and other rookie 18 year-olds unless those comparisons are with Crosby. He is that good. My crystal ball says that he will be a point per game player in his rookie season.

I agree with this 100%.

Everyone on the ice will look like a pylon when McDavid is out there.

He's a total freak of nature.

 

[zar]

70-79, 3-on-3 will boost the scoring this year and should easily put C-Mc in this category.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

The more I think about it the more I think I'm underestimating him. I've just been burned so many times by the Oilers in the past 10 years.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

The Hockey News projects 83 points for McDavid.

 

[McGoMcD]

The Hockey News projects 83 points for McDavid.

Ya, well shows people are under predicting if anything. The Hockey news is usually quite good and certainly not bias. I assume scoring will be up, so 83 isn't bad. I imagine some one will bounce back and get 100 points this year.

 

[Mr Positive]

83 points would put him at 4th overall in league scoring this past year. Crosby was 6th in scoring as a rookie

 

[Aceboogie]

70-75 points, puts him around 7-10 in the league.

 

[beaterson]

I think the more interesting question would be if he outscores Hall.

 

[Young Lions*]

Ya, well shows people are under predicting if anything. The Hockey news is usually quite good and certainly not bias. I assume scoring will be up, so 83 isn't bad. I imagine some one will bounce back and get 100 points this year.

Why assume scoring be up?

 

[nightfighter]

Why assume scoring be up?

3 on 3 during OT will probably result in more actual points during wins instead of points lost to shootout wins.

 

[Young Lions*]

3 on 3 during OT will probably result in more actual points during wins instead of points lost to shootout wins.

I don't think 3-on-3 OT will make that big a difference. Usually, around 23% of games go to OT; if (and this is a generous assumption on my part) 3-on-3 play sees 60% of those games end in sudden death (up from the current 44%), that means we'll see an additional 47 goals scored league wide over the course of the season. basically one and half more goals per team.

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't think 3-on-3 OT will make that big a difference. Usually, around 23% of games go to OT; if (and this is a generous assumption on my part) 3-on-3 play sees 60% of those games end in sudden death (up from the current 44%), that means we'll see an additional 47 goals scored league wide over the course of the season. basically one and half more goals per team.

47 goals translates to what, another 70-ish assists on top of that. It's very likely that those extra points league-wide will be concentrated in the top scorers of league, rather than the current norm for the league where mid-tier players have a much bigger slice of the points-pie than in years previous. 3 on 3 minutes will likely go mostly to those top tier offensive forwards, and for us we will be giving McDavid all the 3 on 3 minutes he can handle.

 

[McGoMcD]

Why assume scoring be up?

regression to the mean, that and the 3 on 3. Also they will call more penalties, the NHL will want it up.

 

[DavidHasselhoffsFist]

137

 

[Young Lions*]

47 goals translates to what, another 70-ish assists on top of that. It's very likely that those extra points league-wide will be concentrated in the top scorers of league, rather than the current norm for the league where mid-tier players have a much bigger slice of the points-pie than in years previous. 3 on 3 minutes will likely go mostly to those top tier offensive forwards, and for us we will be giving McDavid all the 3 on 3 minutes he can handle.

Regardless, it's still a very modest boost. People are overestimating the impact of this change IMO.

 

[Hoogaar23]

Regardless, it's still a very modest boost. People are overestimating the impact of this change IMO.

I agree. There were a total of 85 shootouts last year. Even if 100% of those end in 3 on 3 (doubtful), that still less than 3 extra goals per team over an entire season.

6549 goals scored last year, plus 85 = at most a 1.3% increase, realistically well below a 1% increase (because of 3 on 3)