Connor McDavid Point Projections

[McGoMcD]

i'm not entirely sold that he will be a better player than kane, i *think* he *might* be, but i'm not 100% (or even 80%) sure of it... kane is a top-5 guy in the world who would have led the league in scoring this season if not for injury

truth be told, if mcdavid becomes even 85-90% of what kane is, i'll be more than happy

I would be more like 95% sure he will be better than Kane. If he ends up worse than Kane I would be disappointed, and yes Kane is an outstanding player.

 

[ThePhoenixx]

How about if we don't get our expectations too high here? 50 - 55 points is a good rookie season, let's just hope for that.

If this is true then he was injured or certainly not what he was billed to be by almost everyone.

 

[nightfighter]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic. This is a supposed generational player. He's one of three players to gain exceptional status in the OHL. This isn't your run of the mill hype player. This is supposed to be the next face of the NHL. I highly doubt that scouting reports in the past 3-4 years for this guy have all been so far off the mark that Mcdavid only ends up as a Phil kessel type player. Unless the guy can't stay healthy anything less than PPG would be a disappointment for me.

 

[oilz89*]

If I remember correctly, McDavid got a 10C

I think a 10B would be a bit more fair. Not complaining though

 

[Diamondillium]

I think a 10B would be a bit more fair. Not complaining though

Crosby was a 10C, so it seems fair to me.

 

[oilz89*]

Its actually really tough to predict. He could get anywhere from 55 to 80. Depends on usage, ice Time, teammates, NHL rule changes

If he's developed slow and given easier minutes (around 15 a night) with average linemates, and NHL stays the way it is, probably 55

If he plays 18 a night with hall/eberle and NHL returns to more pp and opens the game up, 80 isn't crazy. Its difficult, but doable

We have to remember that the Swarm Master Eakins isn't coaching anymore. Its Todd Mclellan and he's an excellent coach. Just look at Pavelski, Couture, etc. I still don't know why they fired him.
He was fired right? Or did he just leave?

 

[McFlyingV]

We have to remember that the Swarm Master Eakins isn't coaching anymore. Its Todd Mclellan and he's an excellent coach. Just look at Pavelski, Couture, etc. I still don't know why they fired him.
He was fired right? Or did he just leave?

Mutual contract termination from both sides.

 

[oilz89*]

Mutual contract termination from both sides.

Well thank God for that. He's ours now

 

[lakai17]

I have to believe McDavid will come in Edmonton and lead the team in points in his rookie season. He skates like Bure at times.

 

[Up the Irons]

i'm not entirely sold that he will be a better player than kane, i *think* he *might* be, but i'm not 100% (or even 80%) sure of it... kane is a top-5 guy in the world who would have led the league in scoring this season if not for injury

truth be told, if mcdavid becomes even 85-90% of what kane is, i'll be more than happy

McD is better and more dominant at 18 then Crosby was. "They" are saying there hasn't been a junior this special since Lemieux!!!! You've seen the highlights; this kid is spectacular.

If he isn't at least as good as Kane I'll be stunned. I've said it before, on par with Tavares is his low-end.

 

[McFlyingV]

One more thing when comparing his rookie year to Crosby's and Ovechkin's, is that neither of these players had any sort of offensive supporting cast around them. The 2nd leading scorer on Pittsburgh was Gonchar with like 50 some points. Even if scoring isn't as high as it was back then, McDavid is going to have a lot more offensive power around him than either of those 2 had. I really won't be surprised if he finishes over ppg in his rookie year.

 

[McGoMcD]

Some of you guys are too pessimistic. This is a supposed generational player. He's one of three players to gain exceptional status in the OHL. This isn't your run of the mill hype player. This is supposed to be the next face of the NHL. I highly doubt that scouting reports in the past 3-4 years for this guy have all been so far off the mark that Mcdavid only ends up as a Phil kessel type player. Unless the guy can't stay healthy anything less than PPG would be a disappointment for me.

I agree, the funny thing is many dont' seem to get a projection. Many want to be conservative to not be disappointed and put to much pressure on McDavid. But that isn't what a projections is, a projection is a honest bet on what a player will do. So by 50/50 chance your projections should be a disappointment. People are guessing low so they are almost certain to be surprised, but that isn't a true logical projections. Any way, I think any one not saying at least 70-80 are just not reading the scouting reports and doing the math.

 

[SK13]

I would be interested in a more in-depth attempt to "normalize" 2005-2006 and see what Crosby's rookie seasons might have looked like in modern conditions.

Some simple number crunches:

There was an 11% difference in goals/game between the 2005/2006 season and the 2014/2015 season. Directly applied to Crosby, this is down to 91 points from 102 points.

The key to higher scoring in 05/06 was the ridiculous number of PP chances and PP offense. PP goals are down from 2545 (05-06) to 1362 (14-15), a decline of 46%. When applied directly to Crosby's 47 rookie PP points, it brings him down to 80 points, down from 102.

However, if there were more PP's in 05-06 it meant there was less ES time. Crosby would have made up some of that lost offense in the extra ES time. If we can say he might have scored 1/3rd of the points at ES that he did on the PP, that baseline is probably more like 87 points.

Doubt any of that actually means anything for McDavid... but I've got nothing better do right now anyway.

 

[Bangers]

I still stick with my original bet. Unless he gets injured, he'll be top 10 in the league in points. My guess is in the low 80s.

 

[Quinteoilers]

I'm sticking with my guess too. 35G 55A...Oilers become must watch tv to see what McDavid does on a nightly basis.

 

[Hoodaha]

I'm sticking with my guess too. 35G 55A...Oilers become must watch tv to see what McDavid does on a nightly basis.

McDavid will get ALL the points. All of them.

But in all seriousness, I'd say 70-80 points is a pretty reasonable expectation.

 

[LTIR]

McDavid will get ALL the points. All of them.

But in all seriousness, I'd say 70-80 points is a pretty reasonable expectation.

so in all seriousness you would be disappointed if McDavid doesnt score 35G this upcoming season ? Only 9 players hit 35G last season and only 5 went past 80pts.

If McDavid scores 35G+ he would be the 2nd Oiler since Vincent Damphousse to do it.

 

[soothsayer]

WAY TOO MUCH for a first year player, generational talent or not....

Considering only one of our top players barely cracked the 60 point level ( Eberle-63, RNH-58, Hall-38 ) after a few years in the NHL. He's gonna be average, maybe in the 40-point range for the year and I'll take it. In spades.

Saving this team from harming itself shouldn't be put onto 1 kid. Let him play his game, get his toes wet, before we push him into the deep and tell him he has to tread water for the whole team. The team is gonna need to let him adapt to the NHL, get comfortable, and then wipe out all of Gretzky's records.

First year though, treat him like he's 18.

Cheers,
gpearson1968

Treat him like he's 18? You can bet that opposing teams won't be treating him like an 18 year-old; rather they'll be treating him as a legitimate offensive threat who can single-handedly win games, because that's what he will be come this season. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid will be treating other team's defensive players and goalies like little kids pushing chairs around the ice while the big boys shinny around them.

Anyways, McDavid is an anomaly, so people should stop comparing him to past 1st overalls and other rookie 18 year-olds unless those comparisons are with Crosby. He is that good. My crystal ball says that he will be a point per game player in his rookie season.

 

[DipsyMcDoodles]

With how low scoring the league was last season I'd rather project he'll be top 10 instead of a concrete point total.

Who knows? Maybe with 3 on 3 OT more games are decided without the shootout and it's possible superstar players net a few more points. But if I had to pick, 70-79 sounds just about right.

Edit: I picked 90-99 anyways because y'know 11.5% - anything can happen

 

[McGoMcD]

With how low scoring the league was last season I'd rather project he'll be top 10 instead of a concrete point total.

Who knows? Maybe with 3 on 3 OT more games are decided without the shootout and it's possible superstar players net a few more points. But if I had to pick, 70-79 sounds just about right.

Edit: I picked 90-99 anyways because y'know 11.5% - anything can happen

lol, you bet. Ya I picked he would be between 6-10 in scoring. I feel confident about that, how many points that will be? who knows.

 

[McFlyingV]

so in all seriousness you would be disappointed if McDavid doesnt score 35G this upcoming season ? Only 9 players hit 35G last season and only 5 went past 80pts.

If McDavid scores 35G+ he would be the 2nd Oiler since Vincent Damphousse to do it.

I don't think he'll score 35, but I could see him having a similar year to halls season 2 years ago. Something in the 20-25G 55-60A range if he plays around 75-80 games. I do think that someone playing on his line breaks 30-35G though, probably Hall or Yakupov, maybe Eberle. We all know what happened last time Eberle got to play with a playmaking rookie and this ones even better.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

I have to believe McDavid will come in Edmonton and lead the team in points in his rookie season. He skates like Bure at times.

Yea I think Bure is the best comparison for him. Insane speed coupled with world class hands to match.

 

[McFlyingV]

Yea I think Bure is the best comparison for him. Insane speed coupled with world class hands to match.

I think he has better hands than Bure, but Bure did have a better shot. I do agree with the comparison though when you watch McDavid carry the puck from his own end.

 

[McGoMcD]

Yea I think Bure is the best comparison for him. Insane speed coupled with world class hands to match.

I see what your getting at, but no. McDavid is way more a passer. His skating is unreal, but not so much in a flat out way like Bure. He changes speeds like Coffey. There are better comparisons out there, Bure was great, but cerebrally, McDavaid is far ahead.

 

[The Bored Man]

He's Lionel Messi on ice.