Connor McDavid Point Projections

[McFlyingV]

70 + is not very reasonable IMO. Here is a list of the best rookie seasons in the modern era:
Ovy - 106
Crosby 102
Malkin 85
Kane 72

So 70 looks like a stretch - more like 50 - 60

70 doesn't seem like a stretch at all when Mackinnon put up 63, Nuge was on pace for 69, and Yakupov was even prorated to 53. I don't think there is any question at all that McDavid is better than any of those players were when they came into the league the year they were drafted, and its quite likely he's actually currently better offensively than all those players are right now.

 

[CanadianCommie]

70-79 seems pretty reasonable, barring injury.

 

[Vagabond]

Yeah but look at he's line offensive tools. IMO Hall-McDavid-Poulliot or Yak/Eberle. Thats pretty amazing line what comes to scoring goals. He has Elite linemates right away, something some others hasnt have ever.

That supports my argument more..

 

[Eirhead*]

Yeah but look at he's line offensive tools. IMO Hall-McDavid-Poulliot or Yak/Eberle. Thats pretty amazing line what comes to scoring goals. He has Elite linemates right away, something some others hasnt have ever.

Mackinnon got drafted onto a team with Duchene, Landeskog & Statsny and that turned out pretty good for him. Yakupov probably could have been put in a situation to succeed right off the bat, but we were so concerned with not gift-wrapping him a spot on the team that we've been playing him on the 3rd line ever since he's been drafted and we keep wondering why he's not developing like we expect... The one month we DO play him with Hall like a first-liner, he takes the lead in team goal-scoring for the whole season.

With the type of talent McDavid is, and the amount he's going to be setup for success, I totally expect him to break PPG in his rookie year. I keep saying 97 points is my prediction, but I honestly could seem him busting through 100 - that would be huge.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

It depends in league scoring. He will 15 points below league leader.

 

[Eirhead*]

It depends in league scoring. He will 15 points below league leader.

I think league scoring is somewhat overstated sometimes. The 2006-07 Oilers scored 195 goals while the 2014-15 Oilers scored 198. Both teams pretty much sucked the big hard one. And sure, 2005-06 was a bit of an anomaly because of all the ghost penalties. I think the more important stat will be how improved this Oilers team is. A 198 goal 2015-16 team means McDavid maybe pushes nuge's numbers lower while only modestly performing... whereas a 250 goal Oilers team means McDavid performs superbly and probably everyone's numbers are up.

 

[AUAIOMRN]

While Crosby did score 104 points in 13-14, the next highest scorer had 87. Two points make a line, not a pattern, but I think we can say that the NHL is trending to more balanced scoring instead of huge top-end.

In the last 4 years, the NHL has maintained an eerily steady GPG number of between 5.59 and 5.46, so I think we can assert it's not about league wide scoring trends and more about use.

My baseline for McDavid is 65 points.

When you think about it, this is what would be expected following the reduction in PP opportunities that started a few years ago.

 

[Eirhead*]

The thing that makes McDavid generational, is how he consistently generates scoring opportunities. I seem to remember hearing during the OHL playoffs that he was generating on average double the amount of scoring opportunities that the next best guy was. That kind of stat is pretty telling that he's going to be head and shoulders above just about everyone else. And I'm sure it'll take at least a few years before he has his all-time career best seasons, but you gotta think that with a guy like that, he'll be tackling Crosby sooner or later.

 

[GMofOilers]

Pretty freaking exciting to tell you the truth, yes I miss hockey after a month without a game.

Expect a PPG. Yup hes that good.

 

[McDreamy]

The only team that could slow him down in the playoffs was Oshawa, and that's because they put two guys on him every time he was on the ice. Then he still manages to do stuff like this.

He'll likely have some streaks where is struggling to produce throughout the year but I think a lot of people here are underestimating him. It's a safety mechanism most of us have developed throughout the past 9 years. I'd be surprised to see him put up any less than 70 pts if he can stay healthy.

 

[Kalost]

he gets 99 becuase he's the next great one

 

[ThePhoenixx]

He is going to pile up the points 3 on 3.

 

[McDeathbyCheerios*]

The only team that could slow him down in the playoffs was Oshawa, and that's because they put two guys on him every time he was on the ice. Then he still manages to do stuff like this.

He'll likely have some streaks where is struggling to produce throughout the year but I think a lot of people here are underestimating him. It's a safety mechanism most of us have developed throughout the past 9 years. I'd be surprised to see him put up any less than 70 pts if he can stay healthy.

And it's not even cause they were junior players that he was doing **** like that. His skating and iq will allow him to do that against most nhl defenders to. Doughty and Weber could probably read that we'll enough to prevent it but most 3-7 defensemen he will feast on.

They will put their best dmen on him hen RNH will feast on the rest. Its a good problem to have.

 

[LTIR]

The only team that could slow him down in the playoffs was Oshawa, and that's because they put two guys on him every time he was on the ice. Then he still manages to do stuff like this.

He'll likely have some streaks where is struggling to produce throughout the year but I think a lot of people here are underestimating him. It's a safety mechanism most of us have developed throughout the past 9 years. I'd be surprised to see him put up any less than 70 pts if he can stay healthy.

I dont think anyone is underestimating him.. Most have him scoring 60-80 pts which is damn good for a rookie in the "new" NHL considering only 5 players scored more than 80 last season 87 being highest.. People who voted for 100+ are just plain out to lunch.

Not sure how can anyone be disappointed by a 30G-30A rookie season from McD playing 2nd line minutes. 70pts would put him in top 20 in league scoring which would be great but shouldnt be expected from him.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I wanna change my vote to 100+

 

[Up the Irons]

around 70 points. I see McD as one of those players that generates a chance every shift, and 2 or 3 on a good shift. If his wingers have a good year, he might crack 80.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

216.

 

[ohheyhemsky]

How many 1 goal games did we have last season and the year before? Imagine going to OT with McDavid on your 3 on 3.

IMAGINE IT.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

How many 1 goal games did we have last season and the year before? Imagine going to OT with McDavid on your 3 on 3.

IMAGINE IT.

''Get me a Towel!''

 

[Up the Irons]

I agree, which is why I stated I would not be surprised at all if it happened. I was mostly arguing that it's unreasonable to completely factor out the possibility of it happening.

Looks like we have just an issue of semantics in this, as well as differing interpretations on how important the most recent year is when factoring in predictions. Common disagreement when discussing predictions really, neither of us have a necessarily incorrect viewpoint.

Yup. We'll see. I'd happy to be proven wrong with a 120 point season from Connor McDavid .

wow. that was most the civil and mature disagreement I can remember on here.

Impressed

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

55-65 I think it realistic

Anyone thinking he'll get more than 80 will be very disappointed

 

[KallionKujat]

55-65 I think it realistic

Anyone thinking he'll get more than 80 will be very disappointed

Exactly these people with over 80 points projections take it for granted that Mcdavid will be the 1st line center when the season starts, i think that is not going to be the case in the first 20 to 25 games of the season.

 

[KallionKujat]

Imagine going to OT with McDavid on your 3 on 3.

Based on what shining against those oilers prospects is a different thing than playing against the big boys.In those 3 vs 3 games the goaltender was terrible plain and simple.

 

[OnTheBrink]

Was looking on HF, how come McDavid isn't listed under Oilers section and all the other '15 draft prospects are for Oilers and most other teams? Saw Eichel got a 9B, wondering what McDavid got?

 

[Namtsua]

Was looking on HF, how come McDavid isn't listed under Oilers section and all the other '15 draft prospects are for Oilers and most other teams? Saw Eichel got a 9B, wondering what McDavid got?

If I remember correctly, McDavid got a 10C