Connor McDavid Point Projections
- Thread starter ATBLeafsTyler
- Start date
Paralyzer008
Registered User
- Jan 30, 2008
- 15,277
- 5,320
It was a lackluster season stat wise. The NHL is trendy and trends change on a consistent basis. He has the potential to hit 100 points at tops as he is a generational talent. I'm not expecting him to nor am I hyping him up to that standard but I wouldn't be surprised by it either.
That's because he's that ****ing good. A few thousand showed up for Hall as well btw. I don't see how you think the pressure is as high as you state. As McDavid said himself, he puts more pressure on himself than collectively all the fans do. That's what makes this kid tick and thrive. As I mentioned, Hall, Ebs, Nuge and Yak already had more pressure on them as being the hope for success.. Most fans think the Oilers are still on the outside looking in for the playoffs. So yes, the pressure is way less for McDavid now as it would have been if he were drafted the year Hall was.
I want to change my vote to 100+
Just to troll everyone.
(and to rub it in everyones face when it does indeed happen).
Just to troll everyone.
(and to rub it in everyones face when it does indeed happen).
McShogun99
Registered User
Just to put it into perspective. Mcdavid had over a PPG more during his last season then every 1st OA since Crosby and Kane. Everyone of those players were in pace for 50+ point rookie seasons. If Mcdavid plays a full season he should be getting 70+ points.
GPG has been trending steadily downward since 05-06 when scoring was goosed by the increase in power plays. I haven't seen any indication the league is going to do anything radical that would result in a reversal of that downward trajectory. If they do, all bets are off. But I bet they don't. I'd be shocked if any one player hits 100 points next year.
Diamondillium
DO YOU WANT ANTS!?
I can understand expecting another low scoring year, but being "shocked" by a single 100 point season when the likes of Crosby, Malkin etc are still around and near-prime is surprising. This was the first full year in a long time that there wasn't a 100 point player, which indicates that while a low scoring year is expected again, it was likely just an anomaly that the top scorers were all so much lower than regular. It's far more likely that it will revert to the norm of the last few seasons of having one or two than the norm of last season where it was none.
Again: that's the trend. It's not just the last year and it's not just 100 point players. Before the most recent lockout it wasn't uncommon to see guys in the 95-99 point range, but in the last two years players have even struggled to hit that mark. PPG players are getting harder to come by. I don't see any reason why this downward trend won't continue.
Diamondillium
DO YOU WANT ANTS!?
I'm just saying these things usually aren't a straight line. Yes, the trend may (and is probably expected to) continue, but it's still more likely that the top scorers will have a return to the norm of the last few years, perhaps somewhat lower than the average than to expect them to go no higher than what the single last season had. It's basic extrapolation of statistics.
Top scorers since 2009:
2009: 113
2010: 112
2011: 104
2012: 109
2013: 60 (102.5 pace)
2014: 104
2015: 87
There has definitely been a downward trend, but it looks quite obvious that last year was an extreme anomaly form the norm of the trend. I would not be surprised at all if the top scorer had below 100, but to be shocked by 100 seems baffling to me. Taking multiple years into account, I would personally expect the Art Ross winner to have anywhere between 95-105 points, perhaps on the higher end of that because of 3-on-3 overtime.
McGoMcD
Registered User
Ya, I think most are underrating what McDavid will do, but more so becuase they are assuming the NHL will remain low scoring. You should expect it to revert back to years before. I put McDavid at around 80 points with the league leader getting 100.
Even if you consider last year an extreme anomaly because of the lack of a 100 (or even 90) point scorer, the trend away from that level is pretty unambiguous. Scorers just aren't scoring like they used to. Here's the average points for the top 10 scorers for the last five seasons (I prorated the total for the 48 game season, which is a clear outlier).
10-11: 89.4
11-12: 86.9
12-13: 92.25
13-14: 84
14-15: 79.9
Even with some kind of correction (based on what, I'm not sure), it's not unreasonable at all to think the top scorer will be a sub-100 point player since that's already a clear outer marker based on existing patterns.
Diamondillium
DO YOU WANT ANTS!?
I agree, which is why I stated I would not be surprised at all if it happened. I was mostly arguing that it's unreasonable to completely factor out the possibility of it happening.
Looks like we have just an issue of semantics in this, as well as differing interpretations on how important the most recent year is when factoring in predictions. Common disagreement when discussing predictions really, neither of us have a necessarily incorrect viewpoint.
Yup. We'll see. I'd happy to be proven wrong with a 120 point season from Connor McDavid .
The only reason that there were no 100 point scorers last year was that Crosby and Malkin (the only 2 guys that seem to be capable of hitting 100 these days) both had down years.
Not to mention that a bunch of the players on track for 90ish got injured (Kane, Seguin).
If Crosby and Malkin had been at their usual standards, and Kane and Seguin hadn't been hurt, then the top of the scoring leaders probably would've looked more like:
Crosby: 105
Malkin: 95ish
Seguin: high 80's
Kane: high 80's
followed by Benn/Tavares etc
and nobody would be saying that "scoring is down" because the above numbers are consistent with what we've been seeing for the past 5 years.
Not to mention that a bunch of the players on track for 90ish got injured (Kane, Seguin).
If Crosby and Malkin had been at their usual standards, and Kane and Seguin hadn't been hurt, then the top of the scoring leaders probably would've looked more like:
Crosby: 105
Malkin: 95ish
Seguin: high 80's
Kane: high 80's
followed by Benn/Tavares etc
and nobody would be saying that "scoring is down" because the above numbers are consistent with what we've been seeing for the past 5 years.
While Crosby did score 104 points in 13-14, the next highest scorer had 87. Two points make a line, not a pattern, but I think we can say that the NHL is trending to more balanced scoring instead of huge top-end.
In the last 4 years, the NHL has maintained an eerily steady GPG number of between 5.59 and 5.46, so I think we can assert it's not about league wide scoring trends and more about use.
My baseline for McDavid is 65 points.
Diamondillium
DO YOU WANT ANTS!?
To be fair, only 4.55% are predicting that. Most reasonable people expect around what you are guessing.
ThePhoenixx
Registered User
- Aug 7, 2005
- 9,335
- 5,867
I want to change my vote to 100+
Just to troll everyone.
(and to rub it in everyones face when it does indeed happen).
Too late.
Only a select few of us were wise enough to pick 100+.
Yeah but look at he's line offensive tools. IMO Hall-McDavid-Poulliot or Yak/Eberle. Thats pretty amazing line what comes to scoring goals. He has Elite linemates right away, something some others hasnt have ever.
Sutter Brother
Registered User
70 + is not very reasonable IMO. Here is a list of the best rookie seasons in the modern era:
Ovy - 106
Crosby 102
Malkin 85
Kane 72
So 70 looks like a stretch - more like 50 - 60
Ovy - 106
Crosby 102
Malkin 85
Kane 72
So 70 looks like a stretch - more like 50 - 60
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
-
-
-
BET ON ONLY ONE HORSE WATCH LIVE - FINGER LAKES RACE 1 - Farmington, NYWagers: 2Staked: $273.00Event closes- Updated: