Player Discussion Connor McDavid Part V: Super Sophomore

[KlefDown]

We should be very happy if he hits over 75+.
lets be real here.

 

[duul]

I think he will do it if he stays healthy. To me he looked like the most dynamic player in the world last year as a scrawny 18 year old. This year he looks to have bulked up a bit (still scrawny), but his experience with the league, another offseason of developing skills, and a significant upgrade defensively (Larsson) and Lucic will aide him to 100+.

 

[McDrai]

We should be very happy if he hits over 75+.
lets be real here.

Yup, and people are forgetting the Oiler factor here. Take a player's projected point total and subtract 10-15 points. Mcdavid can score 90-95 points I believe but because he's on a cursed team I would put him at 75-80 points. Who knows though? Maybe Lucic brings some of his winning ways to the team and it rubs off on the other players

 

[0ilerman]

To me point total is irrelevant this year. THE most important thing is staying healthy. We aren't winning anything for a couple years. But Connor is still a slightly built kid and will be heavily relied upon to play big minutes against grown men. A shoulder or ankle on collarbone injury away from being another injured young oiler

Stay healthy kid. Protect the kid looch.

That said, I predict 74 games, 82 points

 

[MCDAVIDISH]

Slightly built at 200 lbs?

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Best recent production by an Oiler over a full season was Hall in 2013-14 with 80 points in 75 games, a 1.07 pts/gm pace, which just happens to be the same pace McDavid was at last year.

Sidney Crosby had a jump from 1.26 pts/gm in his first season to 1.52 pts/gm in his second season or an increase of a little over 20%. McDavid is supposed to be on a level with Crosby. If he has the same level of increase from year one to year two he would go from 1.07 pts/gm to 1.29 pts/gm. Over a full 82 games that would match Patrick Kane's 106 points from last year.

A 1.20 pts/gm pace (6 points every 5 games) over 75 games equates to 90 points.
A 1.25 pts/gm pace (5 points every 4 games) over 80 games equates to 100 points.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

I think McDavid falls somewhere between 90 and 100 points while missing somewhere between 2-6 games for the year. He has a strong will to improve so I think that's attainable. Adding Lucic and still having Maroon should provide two players who can create space for him.

Despite losing Hall, I think by adding Larsson that's a net positive for McDavid in terms of scoring chances. Larsson should get the puck back from the opposition more often and he's excellent at transitioning the puck to the forwards which McDavid should be able to take advantage of in the neutral zone. He and Hall didn't really gel offensively so losing Hall shouldn't detract much from McDavid's offensive game. On the other hand, without Hall the defensive focus from other teams should fall entirely on McDavid.

 

[Soundwave]

I think McDavid falls somewhere between 90 and 100 points while missing somewhere between 2-6 games for the year. He has a strong will to improve so I think that's attainable. Adding Lucic and still having Maroon should provide two players who can create space for him.

Despite losing Hall, I think by adding Larsson that's a net positive for McDavid in terms of scoring chances. Larsson should get the puck back from the opposition more often and he's excellent at transitioning the puck to the forwards which McDavid should be able to take advantage of in the neutral zone. He and Hall didn't really gel offensively so losing Hall shouldn't detract much from McDavid's offensive game. On the other hand, without Hall the defensive focus from other teams should fall entirely on McDavid.

Definitely a net positive for McDavid is Larsson, the loss of Hall basically means nothing to McDavid since McDavid + Hall for whatever reason had the worst chemistry basically of any combination we had with McDavid.

A big, big problem we have is we often waste like 2/3rds of many McDavid shifts pinned in our own zone or making stupid mistakes like bobbling the puck when D have full control ... that sort of stuff Larsson will be a big improvement on.

 

[GMofOilers]

Definitely a net positive for McDavid is Larsson, the loss of Hall basically means nothing to McDavid since McDavid + Hall for whatever reason had the worst chemistry basically of any combination we had with McDavid.

A big, big problem we have is we often waste like 2/3rds of many McDavid shifts pinned in our own zone or making stupid mistakes like bobbling the puck when D have full control ... that sort of stuff Larsson will be a big improvement on.

If McDavid is out with Larsson. This whole board wants to see 3 scoring lines, which will take time that Larsson plays with McDavid.

 

[Mr Positive]

If McDavid is out with Larsson. This whole board wants to see 3 scoring lines, which will take time that Larsson plays with McDavid.

Doing that approach also means spreading around the prime scoring opportunities and using McDavid in defensive situations more, so it would inevitably limit his production. Chicago exploded Kane's production by maximizing his prime scoring opportunities, at the expense of Toews even.

 

[Dorian2]

I hope no one is dismissing the fact that we are going into this year with, ahhhhhh, I forgot the phrase. Shoot!

Oh Yeah....

...the same coach. The same coach that I thought showed he could teach certain team aspects to this team's game over a 1 year period, which was new to the coach himself as far as the team goes, the players who went through coaches on a seemingly yearly basis for the last 5 years go, and us fans go.

Some of that has to have an effect on players. Never mind the key addition of players.

 

[Aceboogie]

Definitely a net positive for McDavid is Larsson, the loss of Hall basically means nothing to McDavid since McDavid + Hall for whatever reason had the worst chemistry basically of any combination we had with McDavid.

A big, big problem we have is we often waste like 2/3rds of many McDavid shifts pinned in our own zone or making stupid mistakes like bobbling the puck when D have full control ... that sort of stuff Larsson will be a big improvement on.

McDavid and Hall played like 5 minutes together in pre season. No time to build chemistry. Its hurts McDavid because Hall took some top defenders away from McDavid line. Which reduced his work load. Unless the mix Drai/RNH/Yak/Pulj creates a monster 2nd line, opposing teams will always match McDavids line with their top lines

But I do agree getting a solid defensive D who can both get the puck and also great at breaking out will be a bigger net positive for McDavid then getting a reduced workload.

McDavid out their 20 minutes a game with Klefbom/Larsson feeding him passes will be mint. Plus Lucic retreiving pucks in tough areas and Eberle being hsi give and go partner (hopefully with better one timer now). Hell be in a pretty good spot to maximize his talent

Plus..... as he does that Puljujarvi will be marinating into the perfect winger for him for the next 10 years... Batman and Robin

 

[Fourier]

you're right, thats why he has so many assists and NJ scored a ton of goals

oh wait, he doesn't

At ES over the last two years Larsson is tied for 36th amongst defensemen for assists with 32. 34 gest you into the top 30. He should play a lot 5vs5 with McDavid and if he can simply get the puck to MCDavid without /97 having to come way back into the defensive zone his assist numbers should go up. This is something he can definitely do as his passing in general is very good and his first pass in particular are excellent. .

 

[Aceboogie]

I hope no one is dismissing the fact that we are going into this year with, ahhhhhh, I forgot the phrase. Shoot!

Oh Yeah....

...the same coach. The same coach that I thought showed he could teach certain team aspects to this team's game over a 1 year period, which was new to the coach himself as far as the team goes, the players who went through coaches on a seemingly yearly basis for the last 5 years go, and us fans go.

Some of that has to have an effect on players. Never mind the key addition of players.

Yeah this is really underrated. Changing systems with new coaches every year is so damn tough and alot of fans dont realize this. Hell know whats expected of him, what to do and have a great coach doing it

TM strikes me as a long term coach, a guy who coaches thru Xs and Os, not be yelling and screaming. So itll take a bit longer for his tactics to take effect

 

[Aceboogie]

At ES over the last two years Larsson is tied for 36th amongst defensemen for assists with 36. 39 gest you into the top 20. He should play a lot 5vs5 with McDavid and if he can simply get the puck to MCDavid without /97 having to come way back into the defensive zone his assist numbers should go up. This is something he can definitely do as his passing in general is very good and his first pass in particular are excellent. .

He is above Sami Vatanen for primary points over last 2 years. Above Spurgeon, Jones, Shattenkirk, Kulikov, Campbell, Seabrook and 2 below Lindholm (7 below OEL)

1st assists over last 2 years hes above OEL, Letang, Buff Campbell

Pts/60 hes tied with Lindholm, within 0.02 of Rielly, Doughty, Shattenkirk

Ofcourse this is picking and choosing names and omitting others but a quick reference to show 5x5 hes not hurting.

Another thing (and pretty amazing IMO) is last 2 years his IPP (percentage of times he gets a point when hes on the ice for a goal) is 44.4. That ranks 10th (!) for D. The leaders are Burns, Carlson, Karlsson, Gio, Josi, Hamilton, Muzzin, Petro, MDZ. Hes above some very big names

And most shocking is that his IAP (% of times he gets an assist on a goal when hes on ice). Is 38.9% which is 2nd in NHL for D last 2 years. The top 10: Carlson, him, Hamilton, Demers, Petro, Braun, Yandle, Josi,Gio, Burns, liles, Subban, Klefbom

 

[Aceboogie]

So I think whats important with all those numbers above is that is shows Larsson does figure in an ALOT of his teams points and by extension plays. It is likely the case the top forward line he played with really wasnt scoring a ton 5x5 when he was on. But he was certainly figuring in on a ton of the plays as he was getting points on a lot of those goals. If he has a simiarly high IPP and IAP on the Oilers with McDavid as his center, his assists and points should shoot up just by being on the ice for more goals.

I think he has a abnormally high IAP just due to elite breakout passing that can kick a breakout into hyper drive. results in more odd man rushes and 2 on 1s.

He also produces well at 5x5, just below top pairing level IMO. Hell benefit from McDavid as McDavid will from him

FTR his IPP and IAP stats blew me away. Never thought theyd be that high

 

[phaedrusDH]

So I think whats important with all those numbers above is that is shows Larsson does figure in an ALOT of his teams points and by extension plays. It is likely the case the top forward line he played with really wasnt scoring a ton 5x5 when he was on. But he was certainly figuring in on a ton of the plays as he was getting points on a lot of those goals. If he has a simiarly high IPP and IAP on the Oilers with McDavid as his center, his assists and points should shoot up just by being on the ice for more goals.

I think he has a abnormally high IAP just due to elite breakout passing that can kick a breakout into hyper drive. results in more odd man rushes and 2 on 1s.

He also produces well at 5x5, just below top pairing level IMO. Hell benefit from McDavid as McDavid will from him

FTR his IPP and IAP stats blew me away. Never thought theyd be that high

where are you pulling these stats from? i'd like to read into it more.

i enjoyed these data, but they were less encouraging and don't factor usage:
http://www.todaysslapshot.com/one-timers/using-nhl-passing-data-to-uncover-playing-styles/

they do indicate positive things about Davidson.

(a mod might want to copy these posts to the Larsson thread?)

 

[Aceboogie]

where are you pulling these stats from? i'd like to read into it more.

i enjoyed these data, but they were less encouraging and don't factor usage:
http://www.todaysslapshot.com/one-timers/using-nhl-passing-data-to-uncover-playing-styles/

they do indicate positive things about Davidson.

(a mod might want to copy these posts to the Larsson thread?)

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201416&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=defense&minutes=2000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

Here is where I got them. Filters are:

5x5: Obviously
2014-16 play: Lats 2 years
Defenseman: obviously
> 2000 mins: You can do whatever minutes you want. I picked 2000 because it takes out outliers who had a lucky half season or whatever. Larger sample size. Can do 1000 or 1500 and he still looks great.

Then just sort the columns

heres a good article on IPP: http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nhl/57839/483/defensemen-ipp--and--icorsi-rates

IPP is just individual points percentage and IAP is individual assists percentage.

As for usage thing, it is unfortuante it doesnt factor usage. But Larssons depoyment was amongst worst in NHL for zone starts and also for competition faced. So his metrics actually hold more water than a sheltered player. Atleast with Larsson youll never have to worry his stats are inflated due to being sheltered

 

[Klimando Kostani]

Doing that approach also means spreading around the prime scoring opportunities and using McDavid in defensive situations more, so it would inevitably limit his production. Chicago exploded Kane's production by maximizing his prime scoring opportunities, at the expense of Toews even.

I guess the goal is to get as many pucks in the net as possible. The best player at putting pucks in the net in 99% of games the McDavid will ever play will be #97. So unless he's getting shut down, he should be given all of the prime chances until this proves to be a bad method of putting the maximum goals up on the board.

 

[duul]

McDavid will be named captain just before the beginning of training camp.

 

[Smartguy]

Am I the only one who still can't believe the lottery a year and a half ago? Can't wait to watch him play this year again, hopefully get to see him live, went last year but he was injured . Curious to see how dmen handle him this year knowing how good he actually is now

 

[snipes]

Don't even care about point totals. He's the type of leader that makes everyone better, leading us to victory matters more. The points will take care of themselves.

I have no doubt Lucic, Kassian, Maroon, Nurse, Hendo, et al would run through a wall for him. It's that genuine humility that draws people to him. For someone who is head and shoulders better than the best of his generation, he's incredibly grounded and modest.

Can't wait for him to skate out with 'C' on his chest in our new arena against our most hated rivals. A new era of the Battle of Alberta is about to begin.

 

[The Panther]

McDavid will be named captain just before the beginning of training camp.

That would be ridiculous. Please no.

Unfortunately, with the Hall trade, the health-factor of McDavid is now the #1 determiner of the Oilers' season's success or failure. I mean, if he breaks his leg in game three and misses the following three or four months, the season's a wash (again). So there is already enough pressure on him. He doesn't need to be a teen captain with all older players.

Despite the 'house-of-cards' that now rests on McDavid's shoulders, I'm still more excited about the Oilers next season than for several years, just because of... McDavid, but also because there appears to be some locker-room stability now. I like the coach.

I was never convinced that Hall was the kind of player to win with, or to lead a team. I'm fairly sure that his locker-room presence was not helping the team move into a "winning" mode (not to discount his considerable talent and skills on-ice). McDavid certainly hasn't proven he is that guy yet, either, but in any case a drastic change of attitude was needed, and with the top-guy of the last few years gone, the new coach established, and a new building to play in, it feels more fresh.

As for McDavid, IF he stays healthy all year and if the Oilers' supporting cast is offensively similar to last year (i.e., crap), I say he'll score about 85 points. On the other hand, if the supporting cast starts to blossom, McDavid could score up in the 90s.

Alternatively, if he gets injured and the team (inevitably) falls into a hole, he'll score about 50 points.

 

[kurtcobang]

That would be ridiculous. Please no.

Unfortunately, with the Hall trade, the health-factor of McDavid is now the #1 determiner of the Oilers' season's success or failure. I mean, if he breaks his leg in game three and misses the following three or four months, the season's a wash (again). So there is already enough pressure on him. He doesn't need to be a teen captain with all older players.

Despite the 'house-of-cards' that now rests on McDavid's shoulders, I'm still more excited about the Oilers next season than for several years, just because of... McDavid, but also because there appears to be some locker-room stability now. I like the coach.

I was never convinced that Hall was the kind of player to win with, or to lead a team. I'm fairly sure that his locker-room presence was not helping the team move into a "winning" mode (not to discount his considerable talent and skills on-ice). McDavid certainly hasn't proven he is that guy yet, either, but in any case a drastic change of attitude was needed, and with the top-guy of the last few years gone, the new coach established, and a new building to play in, it feels more fresh.

As for McDavid, IF he stays healthy all year and if the Oilers' supporting cast is offensively similar to last year (i.e., crap), I say he'll score about 85 points. On the other hand, if the supporting cast starts to blossom, McDavid could score up in the 90s.

Alternatively, if he gets injured and the team (inevitably) falls into a hole, he'll score about 50 points.

I disagree that him being named captain is " ridiculous". He is our best player and the only untouchable on the roster. Its about time our best player wears the C imo
The locker room now has more than enough leadership to help carry the weight for him in his first season or so as captain. It didn't seem to hurt Sid at all, I would expect the same from Connor.

Give him the C... I dont see the upside in waiting. He's been under a microscope for years, i dont see this as extra pressure, he is the best choice imo

 

[Wadewilson]

This is McDavids team now. Give it to him