Connor Bedard vs Matvei Michkov

[PeterCheater]

I don't understand this talk about Michkov being drafted outside of top5, if he's as good as advertised, and if he keeps developing, it will be a choice between Blake Wheeler-level of prospect and Malkin-level of prospect. His contract may be a tiebreaker if there's another player on similar level as a prospect, but at this point it look like maybe there will be one.

8+2 after 4 games... His production on international level is breathtaking.

 

[Starry Knight]

I think if you're making comparisons right now at Michkov and Bedard's performances at the U18s, you might come to the wrong conclusion because of the differences in age groups. NHL draft eligibility being the same doesn't mean they're in the same age group. If Bedard is at next year's U18s, it'd be a more apt comparison.

The more equivalent comparison will be Wright and Michkov at this tournament with them both being 04s.

 

[Fantomas]

I think if you're making comparisons right now at Michkov and Bedard's performances at the U18s, you might come to the wrong conclusion because of the differences in age groups. NHL draft eligibility being the same doesn't mean they're in the same age group. If Bedard is at next year's U18s, it'd be a more apt comparison.

Depends on the criteria you use for age groups. For U18 tournament eligibility, they're in different age groups. For the draft, they're in the same age group.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Michkov is 9+2 after 4 games.

 

[Fantomas]

MHL is a much, much stronger league than the WHL. It's not even close.

 

[PeterCheater]

The more equivalent comparison will be Wright and Michkov at this tournament with them both being 04s.

Michkov and Bedard aren't in the same age group (8 months difference), yet Michkov and Wright are (11 months difference). Doesn't make too much sense.

It looks like Michkov will have an all-time great U-18 WCH for D-2 player, that doesn't mean Bedard won't be a better prospect in two years from now, there's no need for over-analysing this stuff.

 

[Hanji]

I've given Bedard the benefit of the doubt based on a small sample size of WHL games, but right now it's the Michkov show.
Bedard shows flashes of insane ability, but otherwise has looked like a solid 1st line player at this level (which, in and of itself, is tremendous for his age). On the other hand, Michkov is just on a different level right now; toying with opponents and scoring at will.
But we'll see if Bedard can elevate his play in the coming games.

 

[Starry Knight]

Michkov and Bedard aren't in the same age group (8 months difference), yet Michkov and Wright are (11 months difference). Doesn't make too much sense.

It looks like Michkov will have an all-time great U-18 WCH for D-2 player, that doesn't mean Bedard won't be a better prospect in two years from now, there's no need for over-analysing this stuff.

It affects the number of years that they’ve played and who they’ve played with. It’s a more sensible cohort grouping than the NHL’s cutoff date.

 

[Hanji]

It affects the number of years that they’ve played and who they’ve played with. It’s a more sensible cohort grouping than the NHL’s cutoff date.

I'm not sure. Both probably grew up playing with and against older competition on a frequent basis. Also this year was both Michkov and Bedard's 1st year in high level junior hockey. (WHL, MHL)

 

[NatusVincere]

MHL is a much, much stronger league than the WHL. It's not even close.

Slowly but surely some have understood that. But its even not about the WHL, its the east division in which Bedard played in.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Slowly but surely some have understood that. But its even not about the WHL, its the east division in which Bedard played in.

Nah, MHL isn't better, than WHL (I don't think it's worse either). But this certain COVID year everything is possible.

 

[kp61c]

Wright is a year older. How is it fairer to compare Michkov with him than Bedard?

 

[NatusVincere]

Nah, MHL isn't better, than WHL (I don't think it's worse either). But this certain COVID year everything is possible.

It is. At least better than the east division in which Bedard played in.

 

[Starry Knight]

Wright is a year older. How is it more fairer to compare Michkov with him than Bedard?

Because they were born in the same year and therefore "eligible" to play the same number of years of hockey. Your birth month doesn't affect when you can start playing hockey, it's birth year. In essence, if everyone was born in the same town, Michkov and Wright would have started playing hockey at the same time, but Bedard would have had to wait another year to start hockey.

Obviously this is kind of arbitrary in relation to human development/puberty, but it's more appropriate than the cutoff date the NHL sets so they don't have to employ 17 year olds.

 

[snipes]

Michkov is 9+2 after 4 games.

Damn impressive, how did he look today?

 

[snipes]

MHL is a much, much stronger league than the WHL. It's not even close.

That’s just not even true. The WHL is probably the toughest and most physical junior hockey league in the world. It’s been a D man factory for the NHL for decades upon decades. However, right now there are lots of really good young forwards breaking in this year and next year with Bedard leading the way.

The WHL is slightly worse than it is in a normal year though with all the time off and allowing more underage 15 year old players due to the Midget season cancellations across Western Canada.

 

[Hanji]

Because they were born in the same year and therefore "eligible" to play the same number of years of hockey. Your birth month doesn't affect when you can start playing hockey, it's birth year. In essence, if everyone was born in the same town, Michkov and Wright would have started playing hockey at the same time, but Bedard would have had to wait another year to start hockey.

Obviously this is kind of arbitrary in relation to human development/puberty, but it's more appropriate than the cutoff date the NHL sets so they don't have to employ 17 year olds.

Are you sure about that? It may differ country to country because, here in the US, youth hockey groupings (when one starts playing/who they play with) corresponds to school grade. In fact the NHL's draft criteria corresponds to it as well. Every 1st year eligible player would be in the same grade in the US.

 

[Starry Knight]

Are you sure about that? It may differ country to country because, here in the US, youth hockey groupings (when one starts playing/who they play with) correspond to school grade. In fact the NHL's draft criteria corresponds to it as well. Every 1st year eligible player would be in the same grade in the US.

Isn't school grade also tied to your birth year. Unless I'm completely misremembering, everyone was born in the same year in my grade throughout public school and high school.

 

[PeterCheater]

In essence, if everyone was born in the same town, Michkov and Wright would have started playing hockey at the same time, but Bedard would have had to wait another year to start hockey.

Uhm, it doesn't work this way. Being 8 months older (Michkov over Bedard) on average may be an advantage because the younger player has 8 additional months to grow and improve, not because of a fact that the older could have started his hockey career a year earlier. It's not a comparison of Maths skills of 9yo and 8yo, lol.

If your thesis is that Michkov may have an advantage over Bedard right now due to being 8 months older, then yeah, it is certainly possible. But keep in mind that Michkov has proven record of outplaying as an underager players from earlier draft classes: he's had historic MHL season as 16yo, he dominated Winter Youth Festival where several top prospects from '21-'22 drafts played (McGroarty, Fantilli, Savoie etc.) - and right now he's in a middle of amazing WCH U-18 as a D-2 player.

Does it mean Michkov is a better prospect? To be honest, I don't know. But if you ask me as for today, who has shown more to be labeled as a potential generational-level prospect (or the 3rd-best prospect since Ovi), I'd say Michkov. And that doesn't mean that I think Michkov is a generational level-prospect, or I think he's a better prospect than Bedard, because honestly I don't know at this point. But the sample size of him dominating older players is just much bigger.

 

[Hanji]

Isn't school grade also tied to your birth year. Unless I'm completely misremembering, everyone was born in the same year in my grade throughout public school and high school.

It's tied to month in the US. For instance this years' high school graduating senior class is comprised of kids born around Aug 2002 through July 2003.

 

[Starry Knight]

Uhm, it doesn't work this way. Being 8 months older (Michkov over Bedard) on average may be an advantage because the younger player has 8 additional months to grow and improve, not because of a fact that the older could have started his hockey career a year earlier. It's not a comparison of Maths skills of 9yo and 8yo, lol.

If your thesis is that Michkov may have an advantage over Bedard right now due to being 8 months older, then yeah, it is certainly possible. But keep in mind that Michkov has proven record of outplaying as an underager players from earlier draft classes: he's had historic MHL season as 16yo, he dominated Winter Youth Festival where several top prospects from '21-'22 drafts played (McGroarty, Fantilli, Savoie etc.) - and right now he's in a middle of amazing WCH U-18 as a D-2 player.

Does it mean Michkov is a better prospect? To be honest, I don't know. But if you ask me as for today, who has shown more to be labeled as a potential generational-level prospect (or the 3rd-best prospect since Ovi), I'd say Michkov. And that doesn't mean that I think Michkov is a generational level-prospect, or I think he's a better prospect than Bedard, because honestly I don't know at this point. But the sample size of him dominating older players is just much bigger.

This is just circling to my initial point of next year's U18 being a more apples to apples comparison for Bedard to Michkov this year.

Michkov is at a developmental disadvantage with Shane Wright being nearly a year younger, so if he outperforms him this year, it should be pretty clear cut to say he's the better prospect. Going off the eye test, Michkov is definitely more dynamic in my opinion. If Michkov was performing worse, I'd say any conclusion would be more difficult due to the age gap. Same goes for Bedard performance in comparison to Michkov. Bedard is playing well, but not as explosive as Michkov. Bedard with another year of experience could very well perform at Michkov's level.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Damn impressive, how did he look today?

As always. I mean, as soon as he got the puck in Czech zone, something bad for the opponents happened. He wasn't as noticeable, as Poltapov, Yurov, Chibrikov or Svechkov, but he made goals out of nothing.

 

[snipes]

As always. I mean, as soon as he got the puck in Czech zone, something bad for the opponents happened. He wasn't as noticeable, as Poltapov, Yurov, Chibrikov or Svechkov, but he made goals out of nothing.

I just saw the highlights. That last one was ridiculous the reverse pivot spin and then over the shoulder and under the bar shot.

It’s funny you and I were talking a few months back about him being at this tournament, 9 goals through 4 games is incredible production. I was expecting him to tear it up, but man he’s lighting it up.

This kid is the real deal, I’m looking forward to better viewings when TSN has the full coverage over the playoff rounds coming up.

Hoping to see him live next year at the WJC when it’s in Alberta as well as a good viewing at the November Super Series between Canada and Russia (hopefully everyone is vaccinated and we have that tradition returning).

 

[NatusVincere]

It's great how the poll develops - the better Michkov play and the clearer the difference, the more the poll lean towards Bedard

 

[Kshahdoo]

I just saw the highlights. That last one was ridiculous the reverse pivot spin and then over the shoulder and under the bar shot.

It’s funny you and I were talking a few months back about him being at this tournament, 9 goals through 4 games is incredible production. I was expecting him to tear it up, but man he’s lighting it up.

This kid is the real deal, I’m looking forward to better viewings when TSN has the full coverage over the playoff rounds coming up.

Hoping to see him live next year at the WJC when it’s in Alberta as well as a good viewing at the November Super Series between Canada and Russia (hopefully everyone is vaccinated and we have that tradition returning).

Well, if he's in the KHL, he won't play in the series.