Player Discussion Cody Ceci | Part IV

[c_mak]

Ceci = Alzner The habs just have the balls to not play a guy who everyone know is shit

 

[coladin]

You recall him making one “good” play with the puck. That’s what its become with ceci.

“He played bad “

“Weeeeeelllll there was that one play that wasn’t terrible sooooooooo”

Well, that was the play that immediately came to mind. When he isn't overly noticeable is usually a good thing.

 

[coladin]

We will see how the Sens look without Ceci for the next little while. This could go two ways...

 

[OgieO]

Ceci isn't good and at what he will cost, I hope he isn't re-signed... BUT, Boro is the biggest problem on the ice. Ceci would be fine in a smaller role imo. Might even thrive and he shoots right. Hopefully Jaros kicks ass up here.

 

[Xspyrit]

You assume the kids wouldn't be better
I disagree
I think a lot of our kids would be better then Ceci after 400 games
And for them to reach 400 games they need to start sometime
Were rebuilding
Get them the experience while we are rebuilding
Not like Ceci is doing a good job anyway

But who? Ceci is a RHD...

RHD is probably the scarcest position in the NHL

We just traded Erik Karlsson, one of the best RHD in the league, so a major hole was created. Sure we got back DeMelo in return but ideally is on your 3rd pair.

This is our RHD depth right now without Ceci :

Dylan DeMelo
Chris Wideman
Christian Jaros
Julius Bergman
Erik Burgdoerfer

And Harpur who can play his off-side

You realize that Ceci has had the 13th most ES TOI/GP in the last 2 years? And the 11th most SH TOI/GP? And since it's usually not the same D-men getting those 2 types of TOI, Ceci has actually had on of the most ES + SH TOI/GP (22:29 /GP)

In comparison (ES + SH TOI/GP) :

Ryan Suter 23:56
Drew Doughty 23:46
Erik Karlsson 23:17
Rasmus Ristolainen 23:03
Dustin Byfuglien 22:49
Alex Pietrangelo 22:46
Zdeno Chara 22:42
Cody Ceci 22:29
Kris Letang 22:05
Victor Hedman 21:58
Duncan Keith 21:50
Seth Jones 21:49

And since Ceci is mostly deployed as a shutdown D-man in the defensive zone against the likes of Tavares and Kane, do you find it normal that he has such a deployment? Do you really think any of Harpur, DeMelo, Jaros or Wideman would do better in such a role?

Look at Rasmus Ristolainen possession numbers

Corsi (EV) Fenwick (EV) PDO (EV) Zone Starts (EV)
Season Age Team Lg GP TOI CF CA CF% CF% rel FF FA FF% FF% rel oiGF oiSH% oiGA oiSV% PDO oZS% dZS%
2013-14 19 BUF NHL 34 547.3 404 584 40.9 -3.7 301 444 40.4 -4.9 13 5.4 26 91.6 97.0 46.6 53.4
2014-15 20 BUF NHL 78 1339.8 942 1583 37.3 -0.6 731 1167 38.5 -0.6 30 5.4 59 93.0 98.4 39.3 60.7
2015-16 21 BUF NHL 82 1594.2 1336 1604 45.4 -3.5 991 1211 45.0 -4.1 54 7.3 74 91.2 98.6 43.7 56.3
2016-17 22 BUF NHL 79 1602.8 1387 1757 44.1 -5.2 1065 1350 44.1 -5.3 61 7.8 70 92.8 100.6 45.1 54.9
2017-18 23 BUF NHL 73 1459.7 1389 1472 48.5 1.1 1077 1132 48.8 1.5 60 7.7 83 89.9 97.6 53.0 47.0
2018-19 24 BUF NHL 5 91.0 83 104 44.4 -5.2 66 76 46.5 -1.6 3 6.3 4 92.9 99.1 45.1 54.9
Career NHL 351 6634.8 5541 7104 43.8 -2.0 4231 5380 44.0 -2.1 221 7.0 316 91.8 98.8 45.7 54.3

Do you see the correlation between dZS% and CF%? Of course, players get "hemmed" in their zone in that context...

And despite that context, the GA/60 and xGA/60 of Ceci has not been as bad as his haters make it seem. Let's compare with Karlsson

2016-17 + 2017-18

Cody Ceci

GA/60 : 2.92
xGA/60 : 2.61
2016-17 oZS% vs dZS% : 45.7% vs 54.3%
2017-18 oZS% vs dZS% : 41.2% vs 58.8%

Erik Karlsson

GA/60 : 2.84
xGA/60 : 2.45
2016-17 oZS% vs dZS% : 52.9% vs 47.1%
2017-18 oZS% vs dZS% : 55.1% vs 44.9%

If Cody Ceci is as terrible defensively as the HF Sens narrative tell you, what does those numbers say about Karlsson?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

But who? Ceci is a RHD...

RHD is probably the scarcest position in the NHL

We just traded Erik Karlsson, one of the best RHD in the league, so a major hole was created. Sure we got back DeMelo in return but ideally is on your 3rd pair.

This is our RHD depth right now without Ceci :

Dylan DeMelo
Chris Wideman
Christian Jaros
Julius Bergman
Erik Burgdoerfer

And Harpur who can play his off-side

You realize that Ceci has had the 13th most ES TOI/GP in the last 2 years? And the 11th most SH TOI/GP? And since it's usually not the same D-men getting those 2 types of TOI, Ceci has actually had on of the most ES + SH TOI/GP (22:29 /GP)

In comparison (ES + SH TOI/GP) :

Ryan Suter 23:56
Drew Doughty 23:46
Erik Karlsson 23:17
Rasmus Ristolainen 23:03
Dustin Byfuglien 22:49
Alex Pietrangelo 22:46
Zdeno Chara 22:42
Cody Ceci 22:29
Kris Letang 22:05
Victor Hedman 21:58
Duncan Keith 21:50
Seth Jones 21:49

And since Ceci is mostly deployed as a shutdown D-man in the defensive zone against the likes of Tavares and Kane, do you find it normal that he has such a deployment? Do you really think any of Harpur, DeMelo, Jaros or Wideman would do better in such a role?

Look at Rasmus Ristolainen possession numbers

Corsi (EV) Fenwick (EV) PDO (EV) Zone Starts (EV)
Season Age Team Lg GP TOI CF CA CF% CF% rel FF FA FF% FF% rel oiGF oiSH% oiGA oiSV% PDO oZS% dZS%
2013-14 19 BUF NHL 34 547.3 404 584 40.9 -3.7 301 444 40.4 -4.9 13 5.4 26 91.6 97.0 46.6 53.4
2014-15 20 BUF NHL 78 1339.8 942 1583 37.3 -0.6 731 1167 38.5 -0.6 30 5.4 59 93.0 98.4 39.3 60.7
2015-16 21 BUF NHL 82 1594.2 1336 1604 45.4 -3.5 991 1211 45.0 -4.1 54 7.3 74 91.2 98.6 43.7 56.3
2016-17 22 BUF NHL 79 1602.8 1387 1757 44.1 -5.2 1065 1350 44.1 -5.3 61 7.8 70 92.8 100.6 45.1 54.9
2017-18 23 BUF NHL 73 1459.7 1389 1472 48.5 1.1 1077 1132 48.8 1.5 60 7.7 83 89.9 97.6 53.0 47.0
2018-19 24 BUF NHL 5 91.0 83 104 44.4 -5.2 66 76 46.5 -1.6 3 6.3 4 92.9 99.1 45.1 54.9
Career NHL 351 6634.8 5541 7104 43.8 -2.0 4231 5380 44.0 -2.1 221 7.0 316 91.8 98.8 45.7 54.3

Do you see the correlation between dZS% and CF%? Of course, players get "hemmed" in their zone in that context...

And despite that context, the GA/60 and xGA/60 of Ceci has not been as bad as his haters make it seem. Let's compare with Karlsson

2016-17 + 2017-18

Cody Ceci

GA/60 : 2.92
xGA/60 : 2.61
2016-17 oZS% vs dZS% : 45.7% vs 54.3%
2017-18 oZS% vs dZS% : 41.2% vs 58.8%

Erik Karlsson

GA/60 : 2.84
xGA/60 : 2.45
2016-17 oZS% vs dZS% : 52.9% vs 47.1%
2017-18 oZS% vs dZS% : 55.1% vs 44.9%

If Cody Ceci is as terrible defensively as the HF Sens narrative tell you, what does those numbers say about Karlsson?

I see this as this: you can cherry pick some stats to make ceci look half decent. JUST LIKE others can cherry pick stats to make ceci look absolutely atrocious. At the end of the day. There’s probably nothing that makes him look good/great. So then there’s the eye test. Which is almost always bad.

So. Should we have traded him for a star Young forward. Should we sign him long term now? What are your answers given the numbers you’ve provided.

“Hes not as bad as some people believe! He’s slightly better given these numbers” is no victory given the bigger questions here.

 

[JD1]

I see this as this: you can cherry pick some stats to make ceci look half decent. JUST LIKE others can cherry pick stats to make ceci look absolutely atrocious. At the end of the day. There’s probably nothing that makes him look good/great. So then there’s the eye test. Which is almost always bad.

So. Should we have traded him for a star Young forward. Should we sign him long term now? What are your answers given the numbers you’ve provided.

“Hes not as bad as some people believe! He’s slightly better given these numbers” is no victory given the bigger questions here.

an interesting thing to think about...what if we had a true "shut down" guy on the right side? Karlsson wasn't that and having him play it would have taken away from his real talent.

if we had such a player and as a result Ceci played less regularly against top lines and was starting in the o zone more frequently, what would he look like?

 

[Peptic Balcers]

an interesting thing to think about...what if we had a true "shut down" guy on the right side? Karlsson wasn't that and having him play it would have taken away from his real talent.

if we had such a player and as a result Ceci played less regularly against top lines and was starting in the o zone more frequently, what would he look like?

Bad and without anymore excuses

 

[Xspyrit]

I see this as this: you can cherry pick some stats to make ceci look half decent. JUST LIKE others can cherry pick stats to make ceci look absolutely atrocious. At the end of the day. There’s probably nothing that makes him look good/great. So then there’s the eye test. Which is almost always bad.

So. Should we have traded him for a star Young forward. Should we sign him long term now? What are your answers given the numbers you’ve provided.

“Hes not as bad as some people believe! He’s slightly better given these numbers” is no victory given the bigger questions here.

OK but it's not "cherry picking stats". I'm using the basics here, ES+SH TOI/GP, GA60, xGA/60, Zone deployments, CF%... all basic stats that are related with defensive play.

And again, none of this, or no one has said that Ceci is good/great. What we are trying to say, is that the way Ceci has been used makes it impossible for him to look good because he is outmatched, played like the top D-men in the league when he should be your 4th best D-man (so around the ~100th best in the league)

Yes, we should have traded him for a young top forward. But he was cheap ($) before so that doesn't work well with the owner... And now it's too late to get a top forward for him.

I'm not for signing him long term, because the way he's been used the last 2 years (and still going this year) will make him get more money than he should on a UFA years contract when you wish he'd be paid as your #4 (maybe ~4.0 x 5 years)

IF we could get Ceci on a contract like that, If we have 3 clearly better D-men (and one on RHD) and IF we are going to use him "normally" with even zone starts and less minutes (~19 mins per game) playing against the best players in the game, then yeah, I wouldn't mind keeping him.

Bad and without anymore excuses

Yeah, like against the Flyers where he played 19:33 and with a better partner (Lajoie)

Some people have a really hard time seeing the nuances between excuses and reasons.

 

[JD1]

Some people have a really hard time seeing the nuances between excuses and reasons.

some people have a really hard time examining things with logic and reason, rather they base their thoughts and opinions on emotion and right about now emotions are riding pretty negative on this franchise

 

[BankStreetParade]

an interesting thing to think about...what if we had a true "shut down" guy on the right side? Karlsson wasn't that and having him play it would have taken away from his real talent.

if we had such a player and as a result Ceci played less regularly against top lines and was starting in the o zone more frequently, what would he look like?

He'd look like a guy with zero offensive instincts and very, very little in the way of offensive production.

 

[JD1]

He'd look like a guy with zero offensive instincts and very, very little in the way of offensive production.

look one post up from yours

 

[BankStreetParade]

look one post up from yours

Ok?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

an interesting thing to think about...what if we had a true "shut down" guy on the right side? Karlsson wasn't that and having him play it would have taken away from his real talent.

if we had such a player and as a result Ceci played less regularly against top lines and was starting in the o zone more frequently, what would he look like?

He would still make all the defensive brain farts he does now..... remember, he’s not starting ALL his shifts in the defensive zone. He starting most of them there. 55% is not 100% obviously. It’s not like ceci is an offensive catalyst 45% of the time

 

[JD1]

He would still make all the defensive brain farts he does now..... remember, he’s not starting ALL his shifts in the defensive zone. He starting most of them there. 55% is not 100% obviously. It’s not like ceci is an offensive catalyst 45% of the time

no he isn't an offensive catalyst but I think in a less demanding defensive role you'd see more offence come from him

 

[BankStreetParade]

no he isn't an offensive catalyst but I think in a less demanding defensive role you'd see more offence come from him

What have you seen from Ceci since he's been in the lineup full time (2014-15) that makes you believe he has more to contribute offensively? And how would that offense take shape? More SoG, goals, assists?

 

[JD1]

What have you seen from Ceci since he's been in the lineup full time (2014-15) that makes you believe he has more to contribute offensively? And how would that offense take shape? More SoG, goals, assists?

does it really matter what I've seen? it really doesn't matter what I reply, the hate for the guy on the board is locked in

 

[Micklebot]

an interesting thing to think about...what if we had a true "shut down" guy on the right side? Karlsson wasn't that and having him play it would have taken away from his real talent.

if we had such a player and as a result Ceci played less regularly against top lines and was starting in the o zone more frequently, what would he look like?

He looked pretty promising the year we traded form Phaneuf as soon as they were paired together, and that was pretty much the role that pair played. The next year, the script changed with Boucher and they were our shutdown pair.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

no he isn't an offensive catalyst but I think in a less demanding defensive role you'd see more offence come from him

Well he starts in the O zone about half the time. Whenever in an offensive situation he’s shown veeerrrryy little ability to create/score/showcase some hockey sense. I don’t think he has the talent to be offensive at the nhl level. (Yes. I’m aware that there was a twenty game sample of a season somewhere and one season he had 30 points). In junior he was simply stronger and faster than most opponents and it showed. He’s not a pro offensive defenseman. And he’s not a shutdown guy the guy is a bottom pairing d man. He was just as scrambly in junior as he is here though.

 

[JungleBeat]

Ceci does not have the tools to be a threat offensively. He has zero vision and passing abilities, he takes a long time to get his shot off too.

Is he a puck mover? Two - way dman? Offensive/defensive dman?

He’s just bad.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Ceci does not have the tools to be a threat offensively. He has zero vision and passing abilities, he takes a long time to get his shot off too.

Is he a puck mover? Two - way dman? Offensive/defensive dman?

He’s just bad.

He’s your very typical bottom pairing d man. Except teams were offering up good players in return for this bottom pairing d man

 

[coladin]

Jack of all trades, master of none

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The issue imo isn't so much having Ceci in the lineup or not, it's that long term contract that's looming.

We have limited funds available, and we need to be a lot wiser with what we have available than we have been. Seems like this is exactly the kind of guy to get off the pot. He's not a good offensive player and we can plug the hole on D somehow I'm sure. We just traded Karlsson and our D has tread water, so it can probably handle losing Ceci. Now is just not the time to make mistakes with our budget.

If we were a cap team and presumably had a better, more experienced D core because of it, Ceci could fit, but i say move on for the sake of paying the right players as a new core is established over the next couple years. Enough with the big money to non core players.

 

[BankStreetParade]

What have you seen from Ceci since he's been in the lineup full time (2014-15) that makes you believe he has more to contribute offensively? And how would that offense take shape? More SoG, goals, assists?

So you don't want to have a discussion on the subject, you just want to assert your point of view with zero information to back it? Got it!

 

[bert]

So you don't want to have a discussion on the subject, you just want to assert your point of view with zero information to back it? Got it!

Thats what it seems like to me. He is also the only one using logic apparently.

I dont 100 percent dissagree with him that Ceci can be more effective in a different role. I think if he was used as a two way d man rather than shut down he could be much more effective. He actually seems like an ideal fit with Lajoie.

He certainly is not a matchup or shut down d man. That role in general isnt what it used to be. You shut down teams by having the puck and playing a 5 man unit speed style collectively limiting the other teams time and space. Now a fresh ceci playing 18 to 20 minutes max a night can play this role. His physical tools are fine its hia decision making speed that is his issue. If he played less in easier situations he wont be as tired incresing his chances in making the right decision.