Player Discussion Cody Ceci | Part IV

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Continue discussions here.

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We all remember the effect Kelly's skates had on Alfie.

I wouldn't consider Ryan's reluctance about using equipment he is not comfortable with as stupidity. The flip side is he doesn't get broken fingers but scores a lot less due to being incomfortable. Not much better.

I consider it to be exceedingly stupid.

Anyone who has ever played any sport ever has had to use something new or different at one time It feels strange for a bit and then you get used to it.

I mean, he's already a colossal disappointment as a player. It's better to play more games and get used to a new pair of gloves than to use the same flimsy ones and keep breaking fingers.

I'm pretty sure that broken finger Bobby, who can't shoot but has comfy gloves is worse than slightly less comfy gloved Bobby with working hands.

Yeah you listen to how many times the announcer says cecis name followed by the announcer talking about Ottawa spending time in its own zone

Click to read more...

 

[JungleBeat]

Expect no offence from Ceci when he’s on the ice.

 

[Senscore]

Ceci is bad, but I'm constantly surprised by the sheer number of statistical measurements of just how bad he is.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Expect no offence from Ceci when he’s on the ice.

In the last three seasons, there are only 65 instances of DMen scoring more goals than Ceci did (10) in 2015-2016. Only two additional guys hit 10 goals in fewer games than him. He did that with essentially no PP time.

So, clearly, he's capable. Reducing Ceci's minutes, in terms of difficulty and even quantity, will likely lead to an increase in points. Very few players post gaudy totals when PKing or while playing with scrubs, matched up against top players, paired with low-end players. If Ceci's role is adjusted, he will go back to scoring at a reasonable rate. He didn't lose his ability, he's just had a leash put on it - a leash that works against his strengths.

 

[JungleBeat]

So, clearly, he's capable. Reducing Ceci's minutes, in terms of difficulty and even quantity, will likely lead to an increase in points. Very few players post gaudy totals when PKing or while playing with scrubs, matched up against top players, paired with low-end players. If Ceci's role is adjusted, he will go back to scoring at a reasonable rate. He didn't lose his ability, he's just had a leash put on it - a leash that works against his strengths.

Who are these so called scrubs that you speak of? The top two forward that Ceci played with this season is Hoffman -501Min and Pageau - 468Min. The top two defenders were Phaneuf - 407Min and Chabot - 270Min. I would say that Ceci is the worst player out of that group.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Who are these so called scrubs that you speak of? The top two forward that Ceci played with this season is Hoffman -501Min and Pageau - 468Min. The top two defenders were Phaneuf - 407Min and Chabot - 270Min. I would say that Ceci is the worst player out of that group.

He spent more than 80% of his time paired with Phaneuf (~33), Borowiecki (~19.5), Harpur (16.5), and Claesson (~11.5). He also had the highest quality of competition on the team, as I alluded to, and ~42% offensive zone starts. Not sure where to find linemate stats for forwards, but if you point me in the direction I'm sure it will show something similar - regardless of who the top players are, that doesn't mean they made up the majority of the time spent.

Either way, you partially addressed one claim that I made in my post but I made several claims as part of a larger argument. I don't see how what you said invalidates the larger argument whatsoever.

 

[Micklebot]

He spent more than 80% of his time paired with Phaneuf (~33), Borowiecki (~19.5), Harpur (16.5), and Claesson (~11.5). He also had the highest quality of competition on the team, as I alluded to, and ~42% offensive zone starts. Not sure where to find linemate stats for forwards, but if you point me in the direction I'm sure it will show something similar - regardless of who the top players are, that doesn't mean they made up the majority of the time spent.

Either way, you partially addressed one claim that I made in my post but I made several claims as part of a larger argument. I don't see how what you said invalidates the larger argument whatsoever.

You have to do some math to get percentages, but Natural statrick has the TOI data with forwards

With	%
Mike Hoffman	31.89
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	29.76
Tom Pyatt	28.36
Ryan Dzingel	26.16
Matt Duchene	24.78
Zack Smith	23.51
Bobby Ryan	20.35
Mark Stone	19.68
Derick Brassard	19.44
Alexandre Burrows	14.61
Nate Thompson	11.27
Magnus Paajarvi	10.73

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Micklebot]

So lots of time with the third line (Hoffman Pageau and Pyatt).

by contrast, here's Karlsson's

Mike Hoffman	28.84
Mark Stone	28.74
Matt Duchene	28.43
Ryan Dzingel	28.12
Derick Brassard	24.84
Jean-Gabriel Pageau	24.26
Tom Pyatt	22.52
Zack Smith	22.14
Bobby Ryan	21.91
Alexandre Burrows	13.58
Magnus Paajarvi	10.65

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[ottawah]

Expect no offence from Ceci when he’s on the ice.

Deployment matters though. Just took a look back. In the last 10 years the number of players putting up those minutes with less O zone starts is very few. They are :

Andy Greene (2015), 22 points , 40 corsi.
Eric Brewer (2011), 16 points , 41 corsi
Kim Johnsson (2008) 27 points (but 10 PP), 43 corsi
Barret Jackman (2008) 16 points , 42 corsi

And Ceci, 19 points, 41 corsi.


So going back in history when D men historically play that kind of deployment, Ceci has point and corsi numbers which are on par with his peers. And they all played with much better teammates (as defined by team record).


His numbers may not be pretty, but when compared against comparable experiences, they are right where one would expect them.

 

[Beville]

Expect no offence from Ceci when he’s on the ice.

God, not even Big Rig was that bad

 

[JungleBeat]

He spent more than 80% of his time paired with Phaneuf (~33), Borowiecki (~19.5), Harpur (16.5), and Claesson (~11.5). He also had the highest quality of competition on the team, as I alluded to, and ~42% offensive zone starts. Not sure where to find linemate stats for forwards, but if you point me in the direction I'm sure it will show something similar - regardless of who the top players are, that doesn't mean they made up the majority of the time spent.

Quality of competition is a semi outdated metric, everybody that’s played a good ammount of minutes is going to play each other during the season. During away games Boucher doesn’t have the luxury of matching up players as well and the accounts for half the season. From 2016 - 2018 our top defenceman had very similar QoC CF%:
Methot - 50.35%
Ceci - 50.27%
Karlsson - 50.11%

Quality of teammates is a much bigger factor than quality of competition and Ceci does just fine in that regard since he’s the one bringing down his teammates.

Now you mentioned that Ceci didn’t lose his offensive abilities but rather is being held back. What abilities and strengths are you referring too? And surely someone who plays as much has as Ceci would show us some flashes, no?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Ceci isn’t very good and at the money he’s going to make would probably be best if he wasn’t on the team at all

 

[Beville]

His arbitration hearing must be soon, no?

 

[Langdon Alger]

His arbitration hearing must be soon, no?

August 1. My guess is they reach a deal before then, but who knows? I’m interested to see what his new deal will be. I’ll say 3 years at 3.85 AAV.

 

[Tundraman]

I didn't like how Ceci's 2 year deal was set up. It was his 1st RFA contract. A jump from his ELC was understandable but they gave him $2.25M the 1st year and then it jumped to $3.35M the 2nd year. Ceci had been performing at a basic journeyman level and the Sens held the hammer so I don't understand the pay structure of the deal. Why go so high in year 1 and then a major increase in year 2? It was way more than it needed to be imo. It created an expectation and probability of a similar rise in the 1st year of his next deal at/or above $4.35M with probable increases in subsequent years for a much higher aav on his next deal than he deserves. Ceci is not productive enough on either side of the puck to receive anything near $4.8M - $5M or above in any year of his next deal. If he gets anywhere close to these numbers either through arbitration or on an agreed deal he will be priced out of our market and also severely reduce his trade value.

 

[BigRig4]

3.5 would be my ceiling for Ceci

 

[Langdon Alger]

3.5 would be my ceiling for Ceci

Yeah, but it’s Ottawa so he likely gets 7 years at 5.5 AAV with a full no move clause.

 

[BigRig4]

Yeah, but it’s Ottawa so he likely gets 7 years at 5.5 AAV with a full no move clause.

You're triggering me

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

3.5 would be my ceiling for Ceci

That feels fair.

 

[Laphroaig]

Cody Ceci would be a hell of a lot better player today if he'd spent more than 30 games in the AHL. He was very close to a point per game defenseman his last two years of Junior but he needed to hone his game in the minors for at least one, preferably two or three seasons. He missed a key development step. Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone were allowed to percolate in the minors until they were ready to excel at the NHL level. That's how you develop talent. Force feeding Ceci has robbed him of his offensive game. He was thrown in over his head and, instead of thriving, he's merely trying to survive.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Cody Ceci would be a hell of a lot better player today if he'd spent more than 30 games in the AHL. He was very close to a point per game defenseman his last two years of Junior but he needed to hone his game in the minors for at least one, preferably two or three seasons. He missed a key development step. Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone were allowed to percolate in the minors until they were ready to excel at the NHL level. That's how you develop talent. Force feeding Ceci has robbed him of his offensive game. He was thrown in over his head and, instead of thriving, he's merely trying to survive.

Not to mention they called him up when the team was brutal. Goalies couldn’t stop a puck. Not a great environment for a young player. Nothing wrong with him spending the whole year in the minors.

 

[JungleBeat]

3.5 would be my ceiling for Ceci

I agree with this. Ceci is not better than the dmen around his age making $4M+. Sign him for $3.5M and under, then trade him at the deadline.

 

[Ouroboros]

Could the team request a salary lower than Ceci's qualifying offer in the arbitration process? I think probably yes, because QO's expired a few weeks ago, but I'm not sure on the technicalities. Honestly, I think a decent case could be made that he isn't better than the likes of TVR, Joel Edmundson, Brandon Montour, and Ryan Murray who all make less than 3.4M.

I think it's pretty likely that this actually goes to arbitration. The team has to feel like they stand a good chance of winning this case, and thus keeping his salary in check.

I don't even see what comparables Ceci's side could use to justify a salary over 3.75M or thereabouts. Mike Matheson and Brett Pesce I guess.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

Could the team request a salary lower than Ceci's qualifying offer in the arbitration process? I think probably yes, because QO's expired a few weeks ago, but I'm not sure on the technicalities. Honestly, I think a decent case could be made that he isn't better than the likes of TVR, Joel Edmundson, Brandon Montour, and Ryan Murray who all make less than 3.4M.

I think it's pretty likely that this actually goes to arbitration. The team has to feel like they stand a good chance of winning this case, and thus keeping his salary in check.

I don't even see what comparables Ceci's side could use to justify a salary over 3.75M or thereabouts. Mike Matheson and Brett Pesce I guess.

Counting only RFA years:

Montour ($3.387m)
Edmundson ($3.0m)
Miller ($3.875m)
Matheson ($3.5m)
Manson ($3.25m)
Severson ($4.0m)
Pesce (4.025m)
Dumoulin ($4.1m)

 

[Peptic Balcers]

If money is tight, I'd rather have whoever you think the 7th defenseman is, a spot in the top 6 than give Ceci more than 3 million. Especially if it means the difference between keeping stone/duchene