Confirmed with Link: Clayton Keller, Coyotes agree on 8-year, $7.15M AAV extension

[Sweetpotato]

This is a very savy move imo. He'll likely light it up with Kessel.

 

[hbk]

That deal was never offered to Leafs. Dubas first meeting after getting job was with Marner's agent. He has been actively trying to sign him since.

Kouleas indicates all the time on XM NHl that the offer on the table is 3 x $9M. He’s claiming it to be fact.

 

[Jamieh]

Kouleas indicates all the time on XM NHl that the offer on the table is 3 x $9M. He’s claiming it to be fact.

My reply was to the 8 x $8 offer that was rumored to be put to Leafs from Marner Camp. Dubas has stated on the record it was never offered. I'm starting to think 3 years at just under $10 will be the deal shortly. It gives Marner the money he wants now and the chance to cash in again in 3 years. Plus Leafs have that Cap space.

 

[BUX7PHX]

I'd be happier with this if we weren't tied to so many guys with the dreaded "hope" Chayka said he didn't want to rely on. We're now hoping Chychrun, Dvo, Schmaltz and Keller get better. Let's face it. If they just produce at the level they are now, we're going to continue to suck for a long time. And as someone already pointed out, Chayka has shown a lot of risk and no clear wins yet with any of our top talent. We better like the guys we have now because there aren't resources to add much top talent.

Clearly, there was something about these players that our management didn't think about "hope" and living up to the potential of the contract.

 

[Jamieh]

Clearly, there was something about these players that our management didn't think about "hope" and living up to the potential of the contract.

There might be some examples around of this Management group making mistakes so I don't understand why people think it's nuts to question their thought processes.

 

[BUX7PHX]

No risk? OK then

I think it is referring to what many of us are saying regarding locking a player in cheaply relative to a resetting market. Let's say Keller has 60 points next year, when he would have been an RFA. An 8 year deal at that point may be worth an additional $1 - 1.5M AAV. So, we may look into a bridge deal. 2 years at $ 10 - 12M for similar (or better) production probably means we are skirting close to double-digit AAV across another 6-8 years.

This is about managing for the future without being at risk of putting too much money in one player's contract.

 

[BUX7PHX]

There might be some examples around of this Management group making mistakes so I don't understand why people think it's nuts to question their thought processes.

I agree that people are free to question their thought processes. But in the same sense, if we waited a year and Keller exploded, we'd be questioning why we didn't lock the player down cheaper earlier, if this option was on the table.

Would you rather have Marner locked at 8 x $8M, as was rumored, or are you content with the way this negotiation is going on now? Keeping in mind that a short term deal could see the Leafs paying even more than a short term deal.

That's why I think that this may be the new normal in the NHL and Chayka just happens to be in a position to be ahead of that curve.

 

[Jamieh]

I agree that people are free to question their thought processes. But in the same sense, if we waited a year and Keller exploded, we'd be questioning why we didn't lock the player down cheaper earlier, if this option was on the table.

Would you rather have Marner locked at 8 x $8M, as was rumored, or are you content with the way this negotiation is going on now? Keeping in mind that a short term deal could see the Leafs paying even more than a short term deal.

That's why I think that this may be the new normal in the NHL and Chayka just happens to be in a position to be ahead of that curve.

Have you left any room for 50 points being Keller's year? Or maybe you notice he us more of a wingman than a line driver? Marner would not sign, I have no idea what the Leafs could do about that?? His Agent stated that they would not be signing last year and would be waiting until July 1st.

 

[_Del_]

This is a very savy move imo. He'll likely light it up with Kessel.

I think the only hope for team success is splitting up the three liabilities.

But splitting them up should still result in at least one of those guys getting very favourable matchups, even on the road.

 

[hbk]

My reply was to the 8 x $8 offer that was rumored to be put to Leafs from Marner Camp. Dubas has stated on the record it was never offered. I'm starting to think 3 years at just under $10 will be the deal shortly. It gives Marner the money he wants now and the chance to cash in again in 3 years. Plus Leafs have that Cap space.

If it wasn’t offered it should have been. I’d be furious they didn’t try to sign Marner earlier.

 

[Jamieh]

If it wasn’t offered it should have been. I’d be furious they didn’t try to sign Marner earlier.

They did. Dubas first meeting as GM was with Marner's Agent. He was told they were going to wait until following year to negotiate. Dubas kept the dialogue open and has talked regularly. But you really can't force someone to sign your deal.

 

[BUX7PHX]

Have you left any room for 50 points being Keller's year? Or maybe you notice he us more of a wingman than a line driver? Marner would not sign, I have no idea what the Leafs could do about that?? His Agent stated that they would not be signing last year and would be waiting until July 1st.

That's exactly why I suggested that Chayka may be the fortunate one who is attacking the theories of players and their agents. Let's say that Marner's agent had a number like $8.75 AAV in his head. If the Leafs offer 8 years for $70M, then the smokescreen by the agent gets blown away and he signs.

Now, you are saying that you would be comfortable with a shorter term, higher $ deal. Is something like 3 years for $27.75 M total agreeable? Should Marner's stats not stagnate, you will spend way more than $42.25M over 5 years for the same deal that could have been completed the year prior.

All you can do is ask, and if they say no, then you know where you stand.

Let's say Keller puts up 50 points ne t year. He is due $5.5 M in that next year, so I would say that we did a decent job on gauging the value and market. And the idea will be that he progresses, or is that concept of progression only reserved for players we traded away?

 

[Jamieh]

That's exactly why I suggested that Chayka may be the fortunate one who is attacking the theories of players and their agents. Let's say that Marner's agent had a number like $8.75 AAV in his head. If the Leafs offer 8 years for $70M, then the smokescreen by the agent gets blown away and he signs.

Now, you are saying that you would be comfortable with a shorter term, higher $ deal. Is something like 3 years for $27.75 M total agreeable? Should Marner's stats not stagnate, you will spend way more than $42.25M over 5 years for the same deal that could have been completed the year prior.

All you can do is ask, and if they say no, then you know where you stand.

Let's say Keller puts up 50 points ne t year. He is due $5.5 M in that next year, so I would say that we did a decent job on gauging the value and market. And the idea will be that he progresses, or is that concept of progression only reserved for players we traded away?

So there is the risk, we have signed him to a contract normally reserved for players around the 70 point mark. Keller might not be that player or he might . He might be signed at anything from too much to just right to a good deal. I think after year two most would have been a lot more comfortable with Marner doing better than Keller. Apparently both players agree.

 

[Sinurgy]

I don't mind the gamble, I think Keller will at least return to his rookie year numbers and ultimately earn and probably even out perform the contract. I do think it's a little silly to act like Chayka is breaking new ground here, this is not some new debate. He's just part of the speculation club and prefers to gamble on the front end instead of the back end is all. I agree with it but this isn't some new groundbreaking strategy.

 

[Mangosteen]

I dont think Yotes fans know how to be happy

 

[AZviaNJ]

I dont think Yotes fans know how to be happy

Some do, the others hang out in this forum

 

[AZviaNJ]

So there is the risk, we have signed him to a contract normally reserved for players around the 70 point mark. Keller might not be that player or he might . He might be signed at anything from too much to just right to a good deal. I think after year two most would have been a lot more comfortable with Marner doing better than Keller. Apparently both players agree.

65 points as a 19 year old. Struggled in year 2 with the likes of Nick Cousins as his center. If healthy, I think it's a safe bet he'll average 70+ points during those 8 years.

 

[BUX7PHX]

So there is the risk, we have signed him to a contract normally reserved for players around the 70 point mark. Keller might not be that player or he might . He might be signed at anything from too much to just right to a good deal. I think after year two most would have been a lot more comfortable with Marner doing better than Keller. Apparently both players agree.

You are aware that Stepan is a 50 point player (albeit at a premium position), who makes $6.5 M AAV on his deal right now?

So, if we get a 50 point player at $650k per year more than Stepan over an 8 year period where the cap and contracts are likely to inflate by a higher percentage, the deal is not a complete albatross. Obviously, yes I would like to see him average at least 60 points per season with this type of deal, but I also find it unlikely that his play levels off or becomes significantly worse over that 8 year period.

I think it is a good, calculated risk. We can't all get William Karlsson deals, sadly.

 

[Jamieh]

You are aware that Stepan is a 50 point player (albeit at a premium position), who makes $6.5 M AAV on his deal right now?

So, if we get a 50 point player at $650k per year more than Stepan over an 8 year period where the cap and contracts are likely to inflate by a higher percentage, the deal is not a complete albatross. Obviously, yes I would like to see him average at least 60 points per season with this type of deal, but I also find it unlikely that his play levels off or becomes significantly worse over that 8 year period.

I think it is a good, calculated risk. We can't all get William Karlsson deals, sadly.

If your comparable for good is Stepan well....plus I think they play different positions and one comes at a premium. I don't think this is a bad deal but when looking at the other 3 or 4 the Coyote's payroll comes with more risk than most. Hopefully most payoff.

 

[LuckyNumber11]

I think all he needs to do to be worth this contract is return to his rookie year self. But the odds of him improving from his rookie year self, I feel, are pretty solid and would make this even better.

 

[Jamieh]

65 points as a 19 year old. Struggled in year 2 with the likes of Nick Cousins as his center. If healthy, I think it's a safe bet he'll average 70+ points during those 8 years.

I don't expect that much and don't think he needs to do it every year. Averaging 70 points would put him in top 15 players of the timeframe. Doing it most years would be good by me.

 

[cobra427]

I think it is referring to what many of us are saying regarding locking a player in cheaply relative to a resetting market. Let's say Keller has 60 points next year, when he would have been an RFA. An 8 year deal at that point may be worth an additional $1 - 1.5M AAV. So, we may look into a bridge deal. 2 years at $ 10 - 12M for similar (or better) production probably means we are skirting close to double-digit AAV across another 6-8 years.

This is about managing for the future without being at risk of putting too much money in one player's contract.

I understand the strategy. Lets sign our young players to term and money before they produce and deserve it because we think they will produce and we will have to pay more later. I hope Chayka is right but if he is, he will be lucky. Chych/DVO were not as good as expected and injured, Domi/Strome were better then expected (on another team). I question Chayka's judgement thats all, he has proven to be more wrong then right so far with young players, but I hope he is right on Schmaltz/DVO/Keller/Chych.

 

[BUX7PHX]

If your comparable for good is Stepan well....plus I think they play different positions and one comes at a premium. I don't think this is a bad deal but when looking at the other 3 or 4 the Coyote's payroll comes with more risk than most. Hopefully most payoff.

I was only comparing on the salary end, since 50 points is what you had mentioned. I think that over the life of this contract, he is probably closer to the 60-65 point range.

We can argue the semantics of premium position, which is notable. But contracts are going to get more and more expensive over time. Where $6-7.5M is worth 60 points now, in 5 years, that may become $7-9M per year, which would put him at the low end for a non-C position and right about where he should be.

I think we are saying the same thing: sure, there is risk, but I think that the risk is properly calculated. If the deal began with an 8 as his AAV, I think we overpaid.

 

[hbk]

They did. Dubas first meeting as GM was with Marner's Agent. He was told they were going to wait until following year to negotiate. Dubas kept the dialogue open and has talked regularly. But you really can't force someone to sign your deal.

I’m confused. Did they or did they not make the offer? An agent would be legally obligated to present his client with a contract offer even if they were recommending not to sign it.

 

[Jamieh]

I’m confused. Did they or did they not make the offer? An agent would be legally obligated to present his client with a contract offer even if they were recommending not to sign it.

I'm sure they have made many offers or varying length and dollars. Marner and Agent have not accepted one. They have been talking for months but I don't know how you can sign someone who doesn't want your deal?? Marner has never been interested in less than Matthew's and was emphatic that he was not signing first.