Confirmed with Link: Clayton Keller, Coyotes agree on 8-year, $7.15M AAV extension

[Imaravencawcaw]

Funny that you mention Nylander. As a fan of both teams I hated the Nylander deal, it looks a lot better now.

Yea it's interesting because no RFAs were getting the kind of money Nylander got coming off their ELC, but I don't know if that shift in thinking was inevitable or if Nylander started the avalanche that wasn't going to come. Initially I didn't think the Nylander deal was great either, but now it might look pretty good, but is that because he started the trend? Kind of a chicken and the egg thing.

 

[RABBIT]

I think this is a good contract

 

[cobra427]

Chayka is playing monopoly, this is another huge gamble. Lets look at what Chayka has done:

1. Chychrun- looks like an overpay, might work out but looks iffy now
2. DVO- looks like an overpay, might workout but looks iffy now
3. Schmaltz- One good season with great line mates, contract looks iffy to me
4. Domi/Strome trades look bad, would gladly do both over
5. Keller at $7 mill is risky and the term is too much

Maybe Chayka is Nostradamus and can see the future. I hope he looks like a genius and all these signings work out. This is pure gambling/speculating, he is paying way more today for what somebody might do, and not what they have done. I hope he is lucky though

 

[WrinkledPossum]

Awesome deal. I don't even view this as a gamble. It's going to be a fair deal this season or next and bargain in the coming years. For reference, Skinner signed a 9m deal and his career high is 63 points. Watch Galchenyuk sign for this or more after a season with the Pens.

Also like the NMC in the last few years. Nice to see a high end player want to stay in AZ.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

I'm not too concerned about this deal at this moment. It's more likely Keller will outplay this contract and if he does so then this helps the Yotes in the future with the Cap and building a contending team where they won't have to shed so many key players if they DO have success.

 

[Jamieh]

Awesome deal. I don't even view this as a gamble. It's going to be a fair deal this season or next and bargain in the coming years. For reference, Skinner signed a 9m deal and his career high is 63 points. Watch Galchenyuk sign for this or more after a season with the Pens.

Also like the NMC in the last few years. Nice to see a high end player want to stay in AZ.

Pointing out a questionable deal does not make this one good. Skinner has to live in Buffalo, add a million for that!!!! I doubt Galchenyuk gets that.

 

[Jamieh]

I'm not that dialed into analytics but this guy is no fan!!!!

 

[hbk]

Kinda concerning that he has rolled that dice 4 or 5 times already with no real wins yet?

Kind of hard to call anyone overpaid given none of the contracts have kicked in yet. Let’s discuss inNovember.

I’m more enamoured in the no f***s given approach then I am the dollar figure. There are few deals however that are viewed as overpriced that don’t look fairly favourable at the midpoint. There is a huge cap increase coming in the middle of these deals that I like. If AZ is a cap team in salary then we may have a big opportunity to augment this group with a free agent or two.

 

[Mosby]

^ That's the dude who lost his shit when we dropped Jordan Weal

 

[Jamieh]

Kind of hard to call anyone overpaid given none of the contracts have kicked in yet. Let’s discuss inNovember.

I know but two were signed a year ago and neither have shown the expected promise in that year. I don't think I said any were overpaid so can't defend that??

 

[Jamieh]

^ That's the dude who lost his **** when we dropped Jordan Weal

Really?? I just saw it retweeted . Is he a reputable analytics guy??

 

[Mosby]

From what I know, yes, but just an example of when analytics can go too far.

 

[Jakey53]

Chayka is either a genius or is about to bury this team for years, the jury is out.

In years past, it was you produced, then got paid, now you are paying for future production. It's risky, but if you think about it, so is signing a guy for 8 years when they are 27-28 years old. Many of those deals have come back to haunt the GM's and put them in cap hell. Look at all the RFA's that have not signed. They want the big bucks and most will sign for much more than Keller. Tkachuk and Laine are 0.78 PPG players, Connor 0.72 and Keller is 0.68. All of those players had a much better supporting cast than Keller has had. We have all seen Keller's offensive instincts and he is what this team needs. I think this deal is less risky than the one DVO or Chick signed. The way these kids produce at a younger age, and are now asking big bucks so early has really put contract signings upside down for the GM's

 

[hbk]

I know but two were signed a year ago and neither have shown the expected promise in that year. I don't think I said any were overpaid so can't defend that??

Both were injured and still being paid at their entry level wage.

Yes we need to see progression with dvorak and Chychrun. Not disputing that. Let’s actually see them on them play pain free to gauge where they are at. Unless you are of the opinion that they’ve stopped developing.

 

[hbk]

If Keller has a 60+ point season this year there is zero chance we sign him to this type a deal a year from now after all the unsigned RfA’s today sign. This contract could be a bargain by the end of the week if we see a pile of $10M deals go down with Marner, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

 

[Jakey53]

I'll say this much - if the team succeeds with this group, they'll have a core they can build and market around for the better part of a decade. That'll be great for business.

Of course, if the team falls flat on its face, we're stuck with a bunch of contracts we won't be able to get rid of for the better part of a decade.

Riverboat gambler.

I don't think so. These kids are still young and the deals aren't crazy where they can't be dealt in the future.

 

[Jamieh]

Both were injured and still being paid at their entry level wage.

Yes we need to see progression with dvorak and Chychrun. Not disputing that. Let’s actually see them on them play pain free to gauge where they are at. Unless you are of the opinion that they’ve stopped developing.

I'm not of that opinion. Just stating we signed 4 or 5 deals so far based on potential and with a year passed on two players we have seen no wins. Like i said could be genius but the jury is out.

 

[Foggy1097]

There is a dip in market value where risk is percived to be highest. Usually after an injury or inconistent season, but the player still has gobs of upside and you can sign them at basically market rate because you are putting so much guarenteed money on the table.

If Keller goes out and has a strong year, he can ask for at least $2m more per AAV. It's possible in year4 of this deal he could command somewhere near double what he is being paid on the open market.

This is the one area where I feel Chayka is really being smart, ballsy, and playing to the strengths of the team.

Exactly. Well said

 

[Jamieh]

In years past, it was you produced, then got paid, now you are paying for future production. It's risky, but if you think about it, so is signing a guy for 8 years when they are 27-28 years old. Many of those deals have come back to haunt the GM's and put them in cap hell. Look at all the RFA's that have not signed. They want the big bucks and most will sign for much more than Keller. Tkachuk and Laine are 0.78 PPG players, Connor 0.72 and Keller is 0.68. All of those players had a much better supporting cast than Keller has had. We have all seen Keller's offensive instincts and he is what this team needs. I think this deal is less risky than the one DVO or Chick signed. The way these kids produce at a younger age, and are now asking big bucks so early has really put contract signings upside down for the GM's

To be frank Keller is not as good as those RFA's. That could change but as an example in a poopy year Laine had almost as many goals as Keller points. Not one of those players would we ever refuse a straight up trade for Keller.

 

[hbk]

I'm not of that opinion. Just stating we signed 4 or 5 deals so far based on potential and with a year passed on two players we have seen no wins. Like i said could be genius but the jury is out.

We had a 16 point improvement. That’s 8 wins.

Yes jury is still out. We are paying both a Chychrun and Dvorak in the mid 4’s and those deals already look better despite those players largely being absent last year.

 

[Jamieh]

If Keller has a 60+ point season this year there is zero chance we sign him to this type a deal a year from now after all the unsigned RfA’s today sign. This contract could be a bargain by the end of the week if we see a pile of $10M deals go down with Marner, Tkachuk, Rantanen, etc.

General rule is around a million for every 10 points so Keller should be expected to get over 70 now. I bet no more than 2 of the current RFA crop go over $10 million. They are all significant upgrades over Keller.

 

[Jamieh]

We had a 16 point improvement. That’s 8 wins.

Yes jury is still out. We are paying both a Chychrun and Dvorak in the mid 4’s and those deals already look better despite those players largely being absent last year.

Contract wins, not game wins.

 

[hbk]

General rule is around a million for every 10 points so Keller should be expected to get over 70 now. I bet no more than 2 of the current RFA crop go over $10 million. They are all significant upgrades over Keller.

I bet You will see at least 3 players sign for $2M+ AAV more.

 

[Jakey53]

Show me the comparables that point to $7 million long term. It certainly is a gamble. Very easy to see why the high end RFA's aren't signed.

They should be signed AND paid but the GM's are finding it hard because of the deals they have given to other players. These kids are young and probably going to get better.

 

[hbk]

Contract wins, not game wins.

Contracts already look better given what’s happening in the marketplace. This despite the two players in question having essentially lost seasons.