Confirmed with Link: Clayton Keller, Coyotes agree on 8-year, $7.15M AAV extension

[Phatastic]

This contract is a big gamble, for sure. I was hoping to see Keller play in a "contract year" scenario. Sophomore slump and "other teams adjusting to him" aside, I thought his effort and interest level last year looked terrible. He needs to put up big numbers if he is mainly going to be a floater who doesn't go to the boards.

 

[Jamieh]

They will be paid more than Keller, much more. They ALL have a much better supporting cast than Keller. Do you really think your boy Marner would have had 94 pts. without Tavares?

I think Marner would be over 80 points with NHL level players. Do you think Keller would get 90 points with Tavares? Do you think Tavares would score 47 without Marner? You might not have noticed but Marner also played with Hyman. And FTR I think Marner is at best the 3rd RFA available.

 

[Jamieh]

Of course there are going to be flops, same as when they signed these 27-28 yo's to eight year contracts.

I don't support those either except for high end consistent players.

 

[XX]

This contract is a big gamble, for sure. I was hoping to see Keller play in a "contract year" scenario. Sophomore slump and "other teams adjusting to him" aside, I thought his effort and interest level last year looked terrible. He needs to put up big numbers if he is mainly going to be a floater who doesn't go to the boards.

If your coaches and management are unanimous in their belief that a player will produce at a higher level and continue to do so for a long time... why would you wait around for the price to climb?

Keller might command 9 or 10 next year after a good season. You save a quality depth player's worth of AAV by buying a year early. You also avoid a ton of drama, as other teams are finding out.

 

[Jamieh]

Of course there are going to be flops, same as when they signed these 27-28 yo's to eight year contracts.

How do you feel about OEL deal?

 

[hbk]

I’m actually more surprised by 8 years than I am the 7.15

 

[Jamieh]

If your coaches and management are unanimous in their belief that a player will produce at a higher level and continue to do so for a long time... why would you wait around for the price to climb?

Keller might command 9 or 10 next year after a good season. You save a quality depth player's worth of AAV by buying a year early. You also avoid a ton of drama, as other teams are finding out.

You do realize those other teams tried to sign their players before this summer right? Why do you think their players resisted but Keller jumped right in?

 

[hbk]

This contract is a big gamble, for sure. I was hoping to see Keller play in a "contract year" scenario. Sophomore slump and "other teams adjusting to him" aside, I thought his effort and interest level last year looked terrible. He needs to put up big numbers if he is mainly going to be a floater who doesn't go to the boards.

i think the fear is the Marner regret TORONTO is having this year when they could have proactively signed him last summer for $8x8 vs what they will have to pay him now. Toronto May now have to go more $ and much shorter term to make a deal.

 

[XX]

I’m actually more surprised by 8 years than I am the 7.15

The entire point of buying early is to get the value on the back end of the deal.

 

[hbk]

The entire point of buying early is to get the value on the back end of the deal.

True but we went less term w others and after Mathews signed for only 5 I thought those deals would be less common.

 

[Jamieh]

i think the fear is the Marner regret TORONTO is having this year when they could have proactively signed him last summer for $8x8 vs what they will have to pay him now. Toronto May now have to go more $ and much shorter term to make a deal.

That deal was never offered to Leafs. Dubas first meeting after getting job was with Marner's agent. He has been actively trying to sign him since.

 

[Coyotes2000]

This is a steal

 

[XX]

True but we went less term w others and after Mathews signed for only 5 I thought those deals would be less common.

The others are an injury risk and the 'stretch' was less believable with Chychrun and Dvorak. Both had proved less than Keller when they signed, relatively speaking.

Schmaltz is the better comparison. Being a little older and having an injury cost him $1.5m on his deal despite the expectation that he has similar production to Keller. Both could easily be worth twice what they are making in two or three years time.

Chayka also loathes being forced into any potential UFA situation so these long deals conveniently avoid that.

 

[Jericho Siren]

I feel Chayka managed risks well with this contract. One has to think, even if Keller stagnates, there's at least a couple more years of evaluation in the cards for him. If Clayton fails, Chayka can still buy him out at 1/3 the cost before he's 26 (which is 5 years away) or trade him as a reclamation project while he's still young. The worst case scenario is that buyout is an extremely manageable amount vs potential payoff.

If Keller takes off, Chayka hits it out of the park with that AAV. And Chayka has deliberately set Keller up to for success with the other acquisitions.

Feels like there's less risk with this contract than with Schmaltz, but both are fairly strategic and informed bets, IMO.

 

[RemoAZ]

I'd be happier with this if we weren't tied to so many guys with the dreaded "hope" Chayka said he didn't want to rely on. We're now hoping Chychrun, Dvo, Schmaltz and Keller get better. Let's face it. If they just produce at the level they are now, we're going to continue to suck for a long time. And as someone already pointed out, Chayka has shown a lot of risk and no clear wins yet with any of our top talent. We better like the guys we have now because there aren't resources to add much top talent.

 

[AZviaNJ]

Kinda concerning that he has rolled that dice 4 or 5 times already with no real wins yet?

They're all future plays....can't judge these deals for at least 3-4 years.

 

[AZviaNJ]

i think the fear is the Marner regret TORONTO is having this year when they could have proactively signed him last summer for $8x8 vs what they will have to pay him now. Toronto May now have to go more $ and much shorter term to make a deal.

Just heard Chayka on Sirius and he made this exact point (without referencing specific players).

 

[XX]

I'd be happier with this if we weren't tied to so many guys with the dreaded "hope" Chayka said he didn't want to rely on. We're now hoping Chychrun, Dvo, Schmaltz and Keller get better. Let's face it. If they just produce at the level they are now, we're going to continue to suck for a long time. And as someone already pointed out, Chayka has shown a lot of risk and no clear wins yet with any of our top talent. We better like the guys we have now because there aren't resources to add much top talent.

There is almost no risk in the Dvorak, Chychrun, Keller, Schmaltz style deals.

Players are at risk of injury regardless of how long they are signed, so ignore that. What is the risk with someone like Chychrun? That he somehow doesn't earn his relatively modest salary as a top 4. Possible, but unlikely. It's the same story with the other 3. They either have to punch their replacement level weight for their AAV or you are making bank by underpaying them. It's not like any of them have trade value that exceeds their interal value to the franchise. The only true f*** up so far has been Domi. Chayka at least parlayed his hatred of Strome into a semi productive player that is maybe a better system fit.

Any idiot GM can buy at peak value and just go through the motions. If you look at the logic used here, Chayka is ahead of the curve.

There's no trade ammo and free agents are overpaid. Any improvement will have to be internal. That doesn't change with guys signed or not.

 

[Mosby]

Was expecting 8x7 for Keller so this is almost exact.

As far as other RFAs (Fischer and Hino), I'd probably just wait.

 

[che]

Great news! Imagine what Keller & Matthews can accomplish together in five years time

 

[mouser]

Wise to make this move now instead of waiting until next summer. Keller's price would likely be higher then if he has the type of season many are expecting on a line with Kessel.

 

[cobra427]

There's a quote floating around where Chayka says he's not interested in paying for past performance. Stark because at one point Don Maloney said the opposite.

Experience>youth

 

[lanky]

AMAZING move by JC! That's a great contract. I love these long term deals for the young guys.

 

[FinnishCoyote]

Risky, but i take this gamble. Keller has all the talent to be a ppg guy and if he will become one, we have ppg player for the next 9 years locked for 7m. That sounds nice.

 

[cobra427]

There is almost no risk in the Dvorak, Chychrun, Keller, Schmaltz style deals.

Players are at risk of injury regardless of how long they are signed, so ignore that. What is the risk with someone like Chychrun? That he somehow doesn't earn his relatively modest salary as a top 4. Possible, but unlikely. It's the same story with the other 3. They either have to punch their replacement level weight for their AAV or you are making bank by underpaying them. It's not like any of them have trade value that exceeds their interal value to the franchise. The only true **** up so far has been Domi. Chayka at least parlayed his hatred of Strome into a semi productive player that is maybe a better system fit.

Any idiot GM can buy at peak value and just go through the motions. If you look at the logic used here, Chayka is ahead of the curve.

There's no trade ammo and free agents are overpaid. Any improvement will have to be internal. That doesn't change with guys signed or not.

No risk? OK then