Giroux's rank among recent Hall of Fame centers
This is just a fun little mental exercise I decided to write about, it's not too scientific (no fancy numbers here!)
I assume that everyone here realizes that Claude Giroux should be a future Hall of Famer. Of course his career is not over but it's basically at the point where his induction should be a certainty. If he hits 100 points this year he'll have at least 767 for his career; that leaves him less than 4 seasons at 60 points/year to get over 1,000. 1,000 in this era should be enough; it seems to me more likely that he hits 1,200 than under 1,000.
It usually takes the HOF a couple years before it realizes it should put in a candidate who played for the Flyers. Since Giroux has been a classically under-appreciated player I thought I'd try to rank him among HOF centers.
His peak and prime value is really high and probably underrated by league observers as a whole. Going through the list of Hall of Fame centers elected since 1990, his peak/prime value is probably somewhere in the middle. There are 23 HOF Cs elected in that time frame; I'll toss in 3 guys contemporaries in Crosby, Malkin and Toews who will all go in as well.
Here are the guys who are better than Giroux, peak value, sorta in order, and I don't think anyone will argue about this:
Gretzky
Lemieux
Crosby
Messier
Trottier
Lindros
Forsberg
Here are the guys I think are better than Giroux, and so does everyone else, but it's closer than you might think. Not that it's end-all, be-all, but I'm going to list everyone's Hart Trophies, and top 10 Hart Trophy finishes:
Yzerman 0 awards, 6 top 10 finishes
Larionov 0, 0 - Soviet credit
Sakic 1 award, 9 top 10 finishes
Gilmour 0 awards, 4 top 10 finishes
Fedorov 1 award, 3 top 10 finishes
Malkin 1 award, 4 top 10 finishes
Dionne 0 awards, 6 top 10 finishes
Francis o awards, 2 top 1o finishes
I'd put Giroux about here. When I started ranking these guys, I wanted to put Giroux ahead of Francis, but in looking at Francis' record, I couldn't justify it. They're directly comparable players. For his era, Giroux is a better goal scorer, but Francis is probably an even better passer and PP specialist. Francis led the league in assists twice after the age of 30 and he won a Selke. Other than Malkin, who is still going strong, all of the guys in this group had very long careers -- so long that it'd be hard for Giroux to pass them in career value, but here's hoping.
I swear I didn't make this list up by going off Hart Trophy voting, but it correlates pretty well with how I ranked them. Giroux has 3 top 10 finishes. He fits in with this group of players (none of whom won a Hart), somewhere near the top:
Perreault 4 top 10 finishes
LaFontaine 2 top 10 finishes - When healthy, basically a clone for the flashy part of Yzerman's career
Stastny 3 top 10 finishes -- might deserve some non-NHL credit
Toews 4 top 10 finishes -- He'd rank higher if he was even an average PP performer
Hawerchuk 4 top 10 finishes -- sexy stats but played in the highest-scoring division in the highest-scoring era ever.
Perreault's statistical accomplishments are really close to Giroux. He had 5 seasons in the top 10 in points, but none higher than third, never led the league in an important category other than game-winning goals once. He was a second team All-Star twice. Giroux has 4 seasons in the top 10 (3 top 3 finishes) and could get another this year. He led the league in assists once.
I think Giroux's peak and prime are clearly better than all of these guys:
Modano 3 top 10 finishes
Federko 1 top 10 finish
Nieuwendyk 0 top 10 finishes
Oates 1 top 10 finish
Savard 3 top 10 finishes
Sundin 1 top 10 finish
If Denis Savard had been born 25 years later, would he even make the NHL? My guess is some hockey guy would see him playing at age 17 and tell him to knock off all that fancy stuff and block shots or something.
So I reckon basically Giroux is somewhere around the 16th-20h best center of the past 35 years at his peak. There are other active players and probably some recent retirees who could/should rank above Giroux, like Joe Thornton. However, there are guys like Jeremy Roenick and Bernie Nicholls, each with over 1,200 points, who should probably get in before Giroux is eligible and would rank behind him. Vinny Lecavalier? Pass.
I didn't rank Henrik Sedin; I wanna put him slightly behind Giroux but that may be severely underrating him.