Claude Giroux: Part "Fire, Air, Water, Earth"

[Striiker]

TK missed a few chances yesterday too. I wonder where all the complaints are about his lack of execution? Was Couturier perfect in his execution? Jake?

 

[Rebels57]

If Giroux wasn’t so unlucky and he was scoring at the rate his quality of play deserved, you’d be singing a different tune.

The difference is that I am realistic about his play and understand that analytics do not account for everything happening on the ice in a game with as much noise and micro-events as hockey.

I mean its really just as simple as watching him play this year and comparing it to his play the last 2 years. It you can call it equal and still look yourself in the mirror than more power to you.

 

[Rebels57]

And he sent TK in on a breakaway that TK got stopped on. Yes still lack of execution....but at SOME point, since he is creating the same amount of chances as he has the last 2 years AND the same amount of high danger chances....you have to think he is freakin cursed.

When guys he set up are scoring less than 2% on their shots....that's bad luck on G's part. The law of averages say in no way should it be close to that low. Then add in the PP which you know they don't think is the best setup for success. It must be very frustrating....doing everything right and no results...then watch dip ****s do all sorts of wrong and get rewarded for it with good results.

Yet his PDO is right at his career average and league norm, so there is something not adding up.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

how many of those came in high danger areas?

 

[Rebels57]

TK missed a few chances yesterday too. I wonder where all the complaints are about his lack of execution? Was Couturier perfect in his execution? Jake?

When you're producing up to par, you get leeway. Dont pretend you dont know this already.

 

[Tripod]

Yet his PDO is right at his career average and league norm, so there is something not adding up.

Yeah...I am not going to pretend to know how they figure all that info out. Above my pay scale...lol.

But common sense is that when the guys you pass to are shooting less than 2%...and last year was over 9%....something is off. I don't think G suddenly forgot how to pass.

 

[Rebels57]

Yeah...I am not going to pretend to know how they figure all that info out. Above my pay scale...lol.

But common sense is that when the guys you pass to are shooting less than 2%...and last year was over 9%....something is off. I don't think G suddenly forgot how to pass.

I think its a perfect storm of teammates not finishing and G not setting up AS MANY of the top quality chances he has in years past. Just watching this season it sure feels that way without even having to look at stats.

 

[Tripod]

I think its a perfect storm of teammates not finishing and G not setting up AS MANY of the top quality chances he has in years past. Just watching this season it feels that way without even having to look at stats.

I agree...it doesn't "seem" like he is setting up as many. I might have to look at the Appleyard info again to see if it shows raw amounts.

 

[Striiker]

The difference is that I am realistic about his play and understand that analytics do not account for everything happening on the ice in a game with as much noise and micro-events as hockey.

I mean its really just as simple as watching him play this year and comparing it to his play the last 2 years. It you can call it equal and still look yourself in the mirror than more power to you.

What I'm saying isn't based on analytics at all, it's based on watching him play and seeing that he looks the same as last year, is getting chances for himself and others, but is simply unlucky and screwed by the PP.

The analytics simply back that up and add additional context.

When you're producing up to par, you get leeway. Dont pretend you dont know this already.

Right, which means the complaints about those missed shots are not even really about those shots at all, but instead actually complaints about his overall lack of points.

Exactly my point.

Let's not be ridiculous and start pretending that missing a couple of chances means anything. He missed two chances, he's missed plenty of times this year, he missed plenty of chances last year, and he's missed chances every single year of his life... same as literally every player in the sport. It's not what changed and it's not why he has so few points.

 

[Rebels57]

I agree...it doesn't "seem" like he is setting up as many. I might have to look at the Appleyard info again to see if it shows raw amounts.

I just hope he turns it on down the stretch. We will need him big time in the division games.

 

[Rebels57]

What I'm saying isn't based on analytics at all, it's based on watching him play and seeing that he looks the same as last year, is getting chances for himself and others, but is simply unlucky and screwed by the PP.

The analytics simply back that up and add additional context.



Right, which means the complaints about those missed shots are not even really about those shots at all, but instead actually complaints about his overall lack of points.

Exactly my point.

Let's not be ridiculous and start pretending that missing a couple of chances means anything. He missed two chances, he's missed plenty of times this year, he missed plenty of chances last year, and he's missed chances every single year of his life... same as literally every player in the sport. It's not what changed and it's not why he has so few points.

Id be surprised if many would agree with you on that. Not much else I can say.

 

[Striiker]

Yet his PDO is right at his career average and league norm, so there is something not adding up.

Yeah...I am not going to pretend to know how they figure all that info out. Above my pay scale...lol.

But common sense is that when the guys you pass to are shooting less than 2%...and last year was over 9%....something is off. I don't think G suddenly forgot how to pass.

PDO doesn't show scoring luck. It's a combination of on ice shooting % and on ice save %.

The save % of our goalies when Giroux is on the ice has nothing to do with his point total.

 

[Striiker]

Id be surprised if many would agree with you on that. Not much else I can say.

That's fine by me. I'm not worried about what a majority of fans agree with. If they had their way we'd have traded Couturier, Giroux, Ghost, and Voracek years ago. Lots of people on here hallucinate and let frustration/emotion interfere with their judgments, ESPECIALLY when it comes to players who aren't producing at the moment.

I've been in the correct minority enough times to trust my own evaluations. I'm sure as hell not always right, but the last time I had to keep telling people Giroux and Ghost weren't toast, I sure certainly was. Definitely getting some deja vu right now.

 

[Rebels57]

That's fine by me. I'm not worried about what a majority of fans agree with. If they had their way we'd have traded Couturier, Giroux, Ghost, and Voracek years ago. Lots of people on here hallucinate and let frustration/emotion interfere with their judgments.

I've been in the correct minority enough times to trust my own evaluations. I'm sure as hell not always right, but the last time I had to keep telling people Giroux and Ghost weren't toast, I sure certainly was. Definitely getting some deja vu right now.

No one is saying Giroux is toast. At least im not. Im just saying hes having a dissapointing season.

 

[Striiker]

No one is saying Giroux is toast. At least im not. Im just saying hes having a dissapointing season.

Depends on what you mean.
Disappointing results, yep.
Disappointing individual play, nah.

And by "toast" I mean "playing worse due to age-related decline". That's what it sounds like when it's said that he looks worse/slower than previous years. And even if that's not what you mean, there's definitely others who have made it clear that they do.

 

[bobbythebrain]

The difference is that I am realistic about his play and understand that analytics do not account for everything happening on the ice in a game with as much noise and micro-events as hockey.

I mean its really just as simple as watching him play this year and comparing it to his play the last 2 years. It you can call it equal and still look yourself in the mirror than more power to you.

You are correct. Watching games with an biased eye is a revelation

 

[Tripod]

I have no issue saying Giroux is not as noticeable this year vs other years.

Now maybe that's because we are not celebrating after he DOES make a play because we are not scoring. Instead we are bitching about a missed chance by him, or JVR, etc...

Or maybe because he is not with Couts so the raw amount is less.

Hope things change though as we can use the better RESULTS in the home stretch.

 

[Striiker]

I have no issue saying Giroux is not as noticeable this year vs other games.

Now maybe that's because we are not celebrating after he DOES make a play because we are not scoring. Instead we are *****ing about a missed chance by him, or JVR, etc...

That's definitely a huge part of what it is.

A great play that ends in a goal is much more memorable than a great play that doesn't.
Just like a terrible play that ends in a goal against is much more memorable than a terrible play that doesn't.

For example, I still remember a turnover Matt Carle had from behind the net many years ago vs the Lightning that gave them a goal at the end of the game. Do I remember a single other thing he did that year? Nope. If he does that and it doesn't end in a goal, there's no chance I remember it.

That just how our brains work. Memories that go along with strong emotions (like the joy of a goal) stick around much better.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Yes sir. I've been calling it for months now in GDTs.

And vioala, another 2 field goals yesterday from prime spots.

Do i think some bad luck as far as teammates has hit G?..absolutely

Is it as dyer as some make it? No way

He's been pissing away chances with poor shooting and decision making also

So you think his shot is a major issue this year. When he is shooting 8.6% vs 9.6% last year.

There is a pretty noticeable pattern with you.

Giroux did miss two very good opportunities in the last game and now you are calling out his shooting as noticeably degraded.

A few games ago after Couts had his worst turn over in ages you called him out for how consistently he makes bad turn overs.

I think you might just be emotionally reacting to poor plays by our best players in recent games verse making level headed analysis of their play over the season.

 

[bobbythebrain]

So you think his shot is a major issue this year. When he is shooting 8.6% vs 9.6% last year.

There is a pretty noticeable pattern with you.

Giroux did miss two very good opportunities in the last game and now you are calling out his shooting as noticeably degraded.

A few games ago after Couts had his worst turn over in ages you called him out for how consistently he makes bad turn overs.

I think you might just be emotionally reacting to poor plays by our best players in recent games verse making level headed analysis of their play over the season.

This post is inaccurate and I believe you may just be emotionally reacting

I've been calling his shot and uncharacteristic playmaking dating back months. He's missed a crazy amount of grade A chances, so trying to magnify it into just last game or 2 is fallacy and poor due diligence imo

As for your Coots comment, it seems you confused me with someone else, or are just imagining things. I made 1 "oh cooter" in a post game comment, on a RIGHTFULLY bad play(along with a dozen other posters), and followed that up by he better get that back next game in the next GDT(he did), and also liked another comment where someone said Coots doesn't do that often and deserves slack. So what you just posted is you clearly confusing me with someone else, or a poor attempt at calling someone out. Either way, your spin that into I call him out all the time and shows a pattern is false, and you probably shouldn't call it a noticeable pattern when infact you flubbed up both your talking points

Does your shooting % account for missed nets? Cuz last game he got credited for 1 and missed a couple more..incase your stats didn't indicate that

I also never insinuated his shot is "degraded", ie: as he's on the decline. That is another posters tactic who claims everyone who notices any ill of G's current play does...and it's toxic, so be better

 

[Appleyard]

The thing is, outside of first 10 games, he hasnt set up the type of scoring chances he did in years past on a consistent basis. Thats part of the reason for the low shooting percentage off his passes. I think the PP has badly effected his confidence to be honest..and thats not his fault.

He was a passenger in January but I did like his game last night. If he brings it like more often than more points will come.

I mean, even if it was the case... you would be talking a ~1% reduction most likely. That would equate for say shots being ~5ft further away on average.

JvR and Couturier have been his 2nd and 3rd most commong linemates 5v5... and have both shot 0% off his passing. 0%. In fact 5/6 of his most common linemates have shot 0%. TK is the only one who has not.

But looking at shot locations of his linemates with him on ice at 5v5 it does not seem like there has been any difference in location from the last two years. In fact vs last year they are better.

 

[Appleyard]

how many of those came in high danger areas?

I mean, without manually tracking it myself that is impossible to know.

BUT when you throw all the variables in and look at it vs the last two years... it is almost certain they are from very similar overall locations to last year.

 

[Appleyard]

I mean...

The simplest way to put it is:

If Giroux had just sat at left point all year, not moved, and made passes to a defenseman to shoot unscreened from the right point you would expect ~3% to go in 5v5.

1.4% have gone in.

If anyone thinks that his passes for shots have all been to guys who are shooting from centre ice... then yeh, that would account to it. But ofc that is not true.

We have seen it in the last few games.

Yes, he has missed some prime shots himself. But he has had 3 half empty nets missed from his passing, 2x JvR and 1x Hayes. Without counting the slot chances from TK and JvR, and the half break from TK. In three games. And 2/6 of those missed the net. So dont even count in the 1.4%.

These are not "shot attempt assists" but "shot" assists.

145 times Giroux has set up someone for a shot on goal. 2 have gone in. Shoot 145 pucks from just behind the blue-line and you expect about that. A shot inside the circles? You are talking ~12/100 going in...

with normal shot %s on his primary shot assists at just 5v5 this year he would have ~11 more assists.

 

[Striiker]

I mean, even if it was the case... you would be talking a ~1% reduction most likely. That would equate for say shots being ~5ft further away on average.

JvR and Couturier have been his 2nd and 3rd most commong linemates 5v5... and have both shot 0% off his passing. 0%. In fact 5/6 of his most common linemates have shot 0%. TK is the only one who has not.

But looking at shot locations of his linemates with him on ice at 5v5 it does not seem like there has been any difference in location from the last two years. In fact vs last year they are better.

Ok wow... I hadn’t noticed it but that’s insane.

Our two most accomplished goal scorers, recieving passes from one of the best playmakers in the league, and they’re shooting 0%?!?

And people want to say it’s not bad luck? Come on now... let’s be real... there’s nothing Giroux can do about that. It’s completely outside of his control.

 

[Appleyard]

Also, in response to comments about missing the net... Flyers regulars with highest % of shots on target:

Raffl: 81.03%
Laughton: 80%
JvR: 76.65%
Lindblom: 76.04%
Konecny: 75.84%
Giroux: 74.51%
Pitlick: 74.29%
Couturier: 73.66%
Hayes: 71.67%
Voracek: 70.90%
Farabee: 68.37%

Not really too egregious. Slap bang in the middle.