Claude Giroux: Part "Fire, Air, Water, Earth"

[Tripod]

If Giroux had just sat at left point all year, not moved, and made passes to a defenseman to shoot unscreened from the right point you would expect ~3% to go in 5v5.

1.4% have gone in.

145 times Giroux has set up someone for a shot on goal. 2 have gone in. Shoot 145 pucks from just behind the blue-line and you expect about that. A shot inside the circles? You are talking ~12/100 going in...

with normal shot %s on his primary shot assists at just 5v5 this year he would have ~11 more assists.

JvR and Couturier have been his 2nd and 3rd most common linemates 5v5... and have both shot 0% off his passing. 0%. In fact 5/6 of his most common linemates have shot 0%. TK is the only one who has not.

This info is pretty telling

 

[deadhead]

Three things:

1) Giroux has had a lot of bad puck luck, but when it's this bad, maybe his passes aren't as on point as in the past, that is, all it takes to reduce the shooting of his passing target is being subtly off target, they have to hesitate, adjust and shots are wide or blocked, don't know if there's a stat for that, but the drastic falloff is odd. Remember, we're talking a player who was an excellent passer, so just a decline to "good" would have a significant impact, but nothing like what we seeing. So it's probably mostly a fluke.

2) Giroux has lost some speed over the past few years, he had a bounce back in 2017-18, was still good last year and hasn't "lost" it this year, rather, he's had to play more conservatively as he slows down, especially at center. Pretending he's the same player at 32 that he was at 26 is wishful thinking. One thing about age curves, players don't "follow the curve," they tend to fluctuate around it, so 2017-18 was probably above the curve, this season is below the curve, next season? He'll be 34 in the last year of his deal, not ancient but no spring chicken either.

3) Giroux is still a top player with Couts at center, probably because he's asked to do less and can use the skills that he has to best advantage. Watching him with TK and JVR, he's more a passenger, letting those two lead the rush and playing a more conservative role - which is not necessarily a bad thing. TK has taken a step up this season and can drive that line on offense, so Giroux can play closer to the blue line and be more of a facilitator and be able to get back on defense at center.

Managing aging veterans is a matter of putting them in position to succeed and not asking them to do the things they did ten years before.
Ideally, when Frost is ready/Patrick returns Giroux can return to LW with Couts.

 

[Appleyard]

Three things:

1) Giroux has had a lot of bad puck luck, but when it's this bad, maybe his passes aren't as on point as in the past, that is, all it takes to reduce the shooting of his passing target is being subtly off target, they have to hesitate, adjust and shots are wide or blocked, don't know if there's a stat for that, but the drastic falloff is odd. Remember, we're talking a player who was an excellent passer, so just a decline to "good" would have a significant impact, but nothing like what we seeing. So it's probably mostly a fluke.

If it was say ~6-7%... yeh... could be a decline in passing that would not improve going forward. This is more than a significant impact. This is in "chip off the boards from the defensive zone" has not too much worse chance of being converted on.

But the fact that it is 1.4%. With similar shot locations as ever... is just ridiculously awful luck.

MAYBE he is passing worse, but even if so, within a reasonable range you would still expect around ~400% of the assists he currently had 5v5.

Every single other player on the team is not passing better than him, to higher danger areas, are they?

 

[deadhead]

That's the problem, separating what might be a normal decline from obvious bad puck luck.

The good news is going forward, there's no reason to expect such bad puck luck to continue, anymore than you'd expect Hagg to maintain his high PDO.

 

[Rebels57]

Oh he should for sure have at least 10 more assists based on luck alone..but that would still have him on pace for one of his least productive seasons. That's how far off his scoring norms he is right now. Hes not even likely to surpass the 58 points he had in 16-17 with a bum hip.

 

[Appleyard]

Oh he should for sure have at least 10 more assists based on luck alone..but that would still have him on pace for one of his least productive seasons. That's how far off his scoring norms he is right now. Hes not even likely to surpass the 58 points he had in 16-17 with a bum hip.

There is also the 2 minute reduction in ice time to consider and the PP... pretty much every top player has had production reduced on AV teams as he rarely gives guys over 20 minutes. So most players get ~10% ice time reduction and lose production as a result.

If the 5v5 assists were 'normal' he would be leading team in points or right there with Couturier.

 

[Appleyard]

That's the problem, separating what might be a normal decline from obvious bad puck luck.

The good news is going forward, there's no reason to expect such bad puck luck to continue, anymore than you'd expect Hagg to maintain his high PDO.

Oh yeh, but even if we presume the worst and that Giroux has gone against the 99% norm for NHL fwds and his passing has fell off first... we are still talking about him losing likely ~6-8 assists due to bad luck with others sh% alone.

 

[Adtar02]

So giroux numbers suggest a change is coming in a big points swing in the right direction. Right as we start the push for the playoffs. Hmmmmm.

 

[Philly Fanatik]

As Giroux goes...the Flyers go!
Philadelphia playoff push hinges on the captain’s second half!
Fly or die!...
And I envision him taking us to the Conference finals!

 

[Philly Fanatik]

Giroux will get this team into the playoffs...Yes?

 

[Kevin McLaughlin]

Brand new here.. Diehard Flyers fan as well. Wanted to discuss whether or not Claude Giroux will one day make the Hall of Fame? Feel free to share your thoughts..

 

[Striiker]

This was discussed a week or so ago and the general thought was that he should be in, but unfortunately the voters put too much stock in team achievements so it could hurt him if he doesn't win a cup before retiring.

As Appleyard said:

He has had a better peak and prime than ~35-40% of forwards in the Hall of Fame.

No-one in history has EITHER of the:

Hart (3x top 5)
Point (3x top 3)

finishes he has and is not in. Let alone being top 5 across an entire decade in scoring.

If he does not get in then he is almost certainly the best forward in history who is not in.

You are talking about 50% of the Hall of Fame there...

Giroux is better than ~40% of the forwards who are in. Without that much debate.

Who has better Hart, point, point-per-game, seven and ten year primes than him and is not in?

No-one. In any of the categories... let alone all.

 

[Kevin McLaughlin]

This was discussed a week or so ago and the general thought was that he should be in, but unfortunately the voters put too much stock in team achievements so it could hurt him if he doesn't win a cup before retiring.

As Appleyard said:

Agreed.. very strong points. I would love to see postseason production in April (assuming we make it) and hopefully one day he hoists the cup. G’s peak though (2011-2018) should be enough evidence to show his greatness.

 

[Striiker]

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Starat327]

Hes not a hall of famer, Apps. Let it go. Poor leader, never won a cup, never won major awards. Shouldve traded him away 8 years ago.



/s

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Johnk0728]

The pass from Giroux to Couturier last night was underrated.....it was like a QB waiting for a RB to clear on a wheel route. He is on f***ing skates getting back-checked and he leads Couturier perfect. The shot from Couturier was sick. But that pass was world class. Giroux is fine. he needs to shoot more but him and Jake always need to. If Lindblom doesn't get hurt; his #'s are better.

 

[Rebels57]

Agreed.. very strong points. I would love to see postseason production in April (assuming we make it) and hopefully one day he hoists the cup. G’s peak though (2011-2018) should be enough evidence to show his greatness.

I personally think he needs to bring a Cup to Philly to get in.

If not, he will be considered Hall of Very Good like Turgeon, Roenick, Damphousse, etc. He will definitely be in Flyers HoF and they might even waive the HoF requirement to retire his number one day even without a Cup, but if he wins a Cup...he's immortalized.

 

[Kevin McLaughlin]

Giroux (AT WORST) has been the 5th best forward since 2010 throughout the decade. I think the stats clearly back that up and that should be hall of fame worthy imo. With the exception of Crosby, Kane, Malkin, and Ovi I do not believe anyone has outperformed him. Toews and Bergeron have had more success in the playoffs but I don’t believe they’re as talented as he is. I’d personally say they’re all in the same tier. (There are stats that show that) it’s going to be tough but one day I do believe he’ll get in. Most importantly though can we please get a freakin Cup!! Watching G hoist that trophy would be one of the greatest things ever witnessed

 

[Rebels57]

Giroux (AT WORST) has been the 5th best forward since 2010 throughout the decade. I think the stats clearly back that up and that should be hall of fame worthy imo. With the exception of Crosby, Kane, Malkin, and Ovi I do not believe anyone has outperformed him. Toews and Bergeron have had more success in the playoffs but I don’t believe they’re as talented as he is. I’d personally say they’re all in the same tier. (There are stats that show that) it’s going to be tough but one day I do believe he’ll get in. Most importantly though can we please get a freakin Cup!! Watching G hoist that trophy would be one of the greatest things ever witnessed

If he doesn't win a Cup, the biggest argument for putting him in will be his top 4 Hart finishes on 3 separate occasions. I would be surprised if anyone else that has accomplished that is NOT in the HHOF.

If he doesn't get that Cup, I think he could someone that waits a long time to get in but maybe does eventually.

 

[Striiker]

Even if the HoF voters snub him, his jersey should be retired by the Flyers pretty quickly after he retires.

Unless his career ends suddenly with an injury or something, he'll almost certainly end up..

2nd in games played
7th or better in goals
2nd in assists
2nd in points

And he did this while on crap teams for the most part.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Even if the HoF voters snub him, his jersey should be retired by the Flyers pretty quickly after he retires.

Unless his career ends suddenly with an injury or something, he'll almost certainly end up..

2nd in games played
7th or better in goals
2nd in assists
2nd in points

And he did this while on crap teams for the most part.

Well yes, but they have that whole unofficial official standard that you need to be in the Hall of Fame to have your number retired here.

 

[Sawdalite]

Even if the HoF voters snub him, his jersey should be retired by the Flyers pretty quickly after he retires.

Unless his career ends suddenly with an injury or something, he'll almost certainly end up..

2nd in games played
7th or better in goals
2nd in assists
2nd in points

And he did this while on crap teams for the most part.

Well yes, but they have that whole unofficial official standard that you need to be in the Hall of Fame to have your number retired here.

I believe he makes the HHoF... but, for argument sake, let's say he doesn't... Looking st past similar circumstances with Flyers long-term Stats Leaders; IIRC Barber and Howe didn't have their Numbers Retired until gettig in ryhe HHoF... Propp, with his great Stats... that were above Giroux's for so any years, before he eclipsed them, still hasn't had his Number Retired... Lindros Number was Retired immediately upon making the Hall.

Rightly or wrongly, G may have to make the Hall to reach the Rafters... but this may well be a moot point... Giroux IS going to do it... but it may take a little while; just look how Recchi, with his Stats and three Cups had to wait.

JMO

 

[Johnk0728]

Giroux is a hall of famer. He is not done yet. His numbers will keep compiling and Carter Hart will take him to finals again.

#14 better win the Seller this year and he could go on a run of those.