Claude Giroux: Part "Fire, Air, Water, Earth"

[Striiker]

So, yet again, it's clear that bad luck and incompetent PP coaching is what's killed his scoring totals this year, not that he's a different player, declining, or playing worse.

As was obvious the entire time.

 

[bennysflyers16]

More individual AND on ice 5v5:

Shots for
Chances for
High Danger chances for
ExGF for

than 2017-18 and 2018-19.

With almost half the points/60.

Whats the solution then, if it is 90% bad luck, kill a chicken ?

I sure hope it is all just luck, but how long can you assume it will last.

And with these stats, if he was a UFA do you give him 11 mill per ?

 

[Appleyard]

Whats the solution then, if it is 90% bad luck, kill a chicken ?

I sure hope it is all just luck, but how long can you assume it will last.

And with these stats, if he was a UFA do you give him 11 mill per ?

Wait. It will revert... because if he keeps putting up these underlying numbers it is close to impossible for a player not to have ~2.00 P/60 at 5v5 over a big sample.

So long as ageing does not catch up with him say next year... there is a chance it then does, his underlying numbers fall off, and THEN he is likely declining.

And no, because of his age and the fact he does not expire for a couple of years!

 

[bennysflyers16]

Wait. It will revert... because if he keeps putting up these underlying numbers it is close to impossible for a player not to have ~2.00 P/60 at 5v5 over a big sample.

So long as ageing does not catch up with him say next year... there is a chance it then does, his underlying numbers fall off, and THEN he is likely declining.

And no, because of his age and the fact he does not expire for a couple of years!

Obviously the answer is to wait, but man its frustrating waiting that is all. Winning is first for me, so I am content, but we will need him to get up to at minimum a 60-65 pt season and just not sure that will happen.

 

[Striiker]

He's not scoring that much if your boys AV and Therrien don't get their heads out of their asses.

 

[Appleyard]

Obviously the answer is to wait, but man its frustrating waiting that is all. Winning is first for me, so I am content, but we will need him to get up to at minimum a 60-65 pt season and just not sure that will happen.

I guess he gets ~65. IF he keeps playing the way he has all year.

And if not then decent chance he goes off in playoffs or to start next year (assuming father time holds off a bit longer.)

 

[bennysflyers16]

I guess he gets ~65. IF he keeps playing the way he has all year.

And if not then decent chance he goes off in playoffs or to start next year (assuming father time holds off a bit longer.)

I will dance a jig if he get 65 pts, man I hope you are correct.

 

[landsbergfan]

we are really back to hating on giroux...jfc this fanbase

 

[Appleyard]

From the shot contribution data that is publicly available at 5v5 (Snajzder, Turtoro).

Primary shot assists:

2019-20: ~11.50/60
2018-19: 12.43/60

Overall shot contributions:

2019-20: ~30.00/60
2018-19: 31.07/60

The difference in his shot contributions at 5v5 are virtually identical...

I mean... like we are talking:

~93% of primary shot assists.
~97% of overall contributions.

BUT:

15% of the primary assists.
61% of the overall points.

 

[bennysflyers16]

we are really back to hating on giroux...jfc this fanbase

I see very few here that hate him, like maybe 3 ?

The power a few posters have over the majority here is crazy, just ignore them.

 

[Appleyard]

 

[Appleyard]

 

[dragonoffrost]

I don't hate Giroux I'm just willing to admit he's no longer in the top 2 players on this team anymore. Coots and TK have passed him by. It happens.

 

[Appleyard]

I don't hate Giroux I'm just willing to admit he's no longer in the top 2 players on this team anymore. Coots and TK have passed him by. It happens.

I mean, players on ice with him have shot at ~1.4% this year... vs 9.3% last year... despite better shot locations when he is on ice.

What can Giroux do about that really?

Low danger 5v5 shots from outside the circles, along boards etc have a 3% chance of going in in the NHL...

 

[dragonoffrost]

I mean, players on ice with him have shot at ~1.4% this year... vs 9.3% last year... despite better shot locations when he is on ice.

What can Giroux do about that really?

Low danger 5v5 shots from outside the circles have a 3% chance of going in in the NHL...

I'm just tired of everything being luck. Coots and TK are producing. It's bound to happen at some point that the younger guys will take over for the older guys. Hell it's not a bad thing. Especially if the LUCK changes.

Most on this board say Coots is 1C and G is 2C.... how is this a bad thing?????

 

[Appleyard]

I'm just tired of everything being luck. Coots and TK are producing. It's bound to happen at some point that the younger guys will take over for the older guys. Hell it's not a bad thing. Especially if the LUCK changes.

Most on this board say Coots is 1C and G is 2C.... how is this a bad thing?????

1.4%. That is like playing Blackjack and 10x in a row being on 12 and busting every single time on the last hit. That is how silly that shot % is off his passing.

I mean, I for sure think Couturier is a more impactful player than him these days.

But overall he is still better than TK for me.

EDIT: Adjusted the blackjack odds as 60:40 or so was underselling how awful Giroux's luck had been from his passes...

 

[landsbergfan]

I see very few here that hate him, like maybe 3 ?

The power a few posters have over the majority here is crazy, just ignore them.

Not here. Everywhere. You don't notice how suddenly everyone is talking about Giroux? Before that it was Jake, before that it was JVR. It is all so tired and so easily explainable by looking past G, A, and +/- on a stat sheet

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

I'm just tired of everything being luck.

I very, VERY strongly agree with this in general (not necessarily or particularly about G, but just in general) - something about it feels completely off to me. But I couldn't begin to explain why, so all I can do is shrug it off and continue with my apathy.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

I don't hate Giroux I'm just willing to admit he's no longer in the top 2 players on this team anymore. Coots and TK have passed him by. It happens.

Yeah, I'm with Appleyard on this one. I still take G over TK. I think Couts has now passed Giroux, but I am not as enthralled with TK as others so he's #3 to me.

 

[PhlthyRich]

While Giroux's unlucky struggles are unfortunate, I rather have him have this dry spell now while guys like Couts, Hayes and our secondary depth guys are providing the points than later towards the final stretch of the season. Giroux gets hot usually in the 2nd half the year and maybe he's just saving himself for a great playoff performance

Addition: I know an easy solution to get G back on the wing is to call up Frost, but me thinks Fletcher and Co want Frost to fix the little things in the AHL now with top ice time so Frost is ready to come up and have a (bigger) impact for either a playoff run or just in the actual playoffs.

 

[dragonoffrost]

I very, VERY strongly agree with this in general (not necessarily or particularly about G, but just in general) - something about it feels completely off to me. But I couldn't begin to explain why, so all I can do is shrug it off and continue with my apathy.

I'm thinking rather than saying luck people should look into statistical anomalies. That is more likely what we are seeing. They happen all the time.

Of course this also is the doorway for if the anomaly continues it becomes a trend at some point which is when the proverbial shit will hit the fan.

 

[wankstifier]

Giroux is the last airbender?

 

[Appleyard]

I'm thinking rather than saying luck people should look into statistical anomalies. That is more likely what we are seeing. They happen all the time.

Of course this also is the doorway for if the anomaly continues it becomes a trend at some point which is when the proverbial **** will hit the fan.

Luck and statistical anomalies are the same thing a lot of the time... especially over a pretty small sample when we have an enormous sample of similar data behind us.

5-6% could realistically be a bad decline, a sustainably bad decline, especially if shot locations got far worse. But they have not.

It was 9.3% last year, this is something that realistically Giroux has very little influence on. Yeh, maybe, just maybe his passes are not sitting as flat or something, that is plausible. But something like that would not give such an enormous drop.

1.4%? A player could give every pass of the season to Radko Gudas from outside the circle and you would expect double that.

An 85% drop in shot % from players he has passed to would not be accounted for by every shot being in the slot vs every shot being from bang on the blue-line with no screen. Seriously. (and we know that is not the case as shot locations are the same.)

 

[Tripod]

I'm just tired of everything being luck.

So you just think it's better to ignore all the stats that Appleyard has shared that show Giroux is not declining?

"here is proof"

"I don't care"

 

[dragonoffrost]

JEEEEEEZ I'm getting crucified like I said he was declining? Where was that said? What I said is he's a good player who's having a down year that could be an anomaly and they happen? What in there said I expect it to be normal?

There are a lot of effects at play. New coaches that are changing things (tell me what job a new boss comes in and everything is the same) , constant changing line mates, switching between wing and center which changes his responsibility, being a new dad, Oskar and Nolan's health weighing on the players minds...