Claude Giroux: Part "Fire, Air, Water, Earth"

landsbergfan

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Jun 20, 2018
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I'm thinking rather than saying luck people should look into statistical anomalies. That is more likely what we are seeing. They happen all the time.

Of course this also is the doorway for if the anomaly continues it becomes a trend at some point which is when the proverbial **** will hit the fan.
The term luck is used pretty generally, but I wouldn't call it a statistical anomaly. There are times where shooters get hot/cold and it is boiled down to luck. It isn't suggesting that the guy is closing his eyes and hoping for the best, just that if a guy shoots from that spot in that situation, we can expect a result. Over the course of 82 games, sometimes the result will be positive and sometimes it will be negative.

Lets take when Ovechkin hit Fleury's stick in the playoffs:

Whatever word you use to describe this event is what it is. Fact of the matter is that most of the time that pass happens, Ovechkin is burying that shot. The game of hockey has events like these constantly happening. We focus on the ones that would've changed the outcome of a game or playoff series, but over the course of a season, or two, or three, as long as the process is positive (i.e. the pass is making it to ovechkin to shoot at a half open net) the results will eventually follow.
 

dragonoffrost

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The term luck is used pretty generally, but I wouldn't call it a statistical anomaly. There are times where shooters get hot/cold and it is boiled down to luck. It isn't suggesting that the guy is closing his eyes and hoping for the best, just that if a guy shoots from that spot in that situation, we can expect a result. Over the course of 82 games, sometimes the result will be positive and sometimes it will be negative.

Lets take when Ovechkin hit Fleury's stick in the playoffs:

Whatever word you use to describe this event is what it is. Fact of the matter is that most of the time that pass happens, Ovechkin is burying that shot. The game of hockey has events like these constantly happening. We focus on the ones that would've changed the outcome of a game or playoff series, but over the course of a season, or two, or three, as long as the process is positive (i.e. the pass is making it to ovechkin to shoot at a half open net) the results will eventually follow.


Luck is looking at single events. Anomalies tend to look at long term statistical trends like for a season. With where things are luck is starting to look less likely and more like a season long dip which is fine as long as it adjusts in the future.
 
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Tripod

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What's funny, is that "coach speak" is always "do the right thing, and the results will follow". Well as Appleyard has been showing, he is doing the right things but the results are off the wall not correct.

And on the flipside, all the stats show Hagg is getting caved on a regular basis, yet the results are not ending up in our net. For Dmen playing at least 300 minutes:

Hagg has the 7th best on ice SV% behind him.
Hagg is 8th highest in PDO at 1.043. Oh....and Myers is 3rd at 1.052. So expect Myers to have some bad luck come his way too.

Giroux is the ying, Hagg the yang.
 

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
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It amazes me how often I have to point out that guys like Giroux cannot operate their linemates like meat-puppets to make them finish on plays they establish.

I remember when the contingent of anti-Richards guys were in a rage at him because Nodl and then an injured, snakebitten Gagne weren't finishing the grade A chances he was continuously feeding them. This is among the worst Flyers fan traditions, the need to destroy your best players for things that aren't their fault.
 

landsbergfan

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Luck is looking at single events. Anomalies tend to look at long term statistical trends like for a season. With were things are luck is starting to look less likely and more like a season long dip which is fine as long as it adjusts in the future.
So let's say his teammates start scoring on 10% of the shots he sets up instead of 1.4%, is he suddenly playing really well? If they start shooting 25% for 2 months and his point totals go back to "normal" is it no longer an anomaly?

He is sacrificing his own personal stats to help the team with center depth and a new PP design. The team does enough stupid stuff to be mad at to where we don't have to make shit up.
 

dragonoffrost

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So let's say his teammates start scoring on 10% of the shots he sets up instead of 1.4%, is he suddenly playing really well? If they start shooting 25% for 2 months and his point totals go back to "normal" is it no longer an anomaly?

He is sacrificing his own personal stats to help the team with center depth and a new PP design. The team does enough stupid stuff to be mad at to where we don't have to make **** up.
AGAIN

I am not saying he's bad this year. I'm just saying Coots passed him and TK is there or as others will say getting closer to G as the top of this roster. Is it bad that he's the third best player on this team? If so I guess my fan card is revoked.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Couts is the better overall player, but Giroux is still our best offensive player and definitely still better than TK. TK is the better goal scorer though.

Without the insane bad luck and the sabotaged PP Giroux would still be our leading scorer.
 
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FatTugboatFlahr

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one man's meat, is another mans discourse.
8932C2B5-7707-4E06-84A6-6F966D51E648.jpeg
 
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GapToothedWonder

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Dec 20, 2013
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While Giroux's unlucky struggles are unfortunate, I rather have him have this dry spell now while guys like Couts, Hayes and our secondary depth guys are providing the points than later towards the final stretch of the season. Giroux gets hot usually in the 2nd half the year and maybe he's just saving himself for a great playoff performance :nod:

Addition: I know an easy solution to get G back on the wing is to call up Frost, but me thinks Fletcher and Co want Frost to fix the little things in the AHL now with top ice time so Frost is ready to come up and have a (bigger) impact for either a playoff run or just in the actual playoffs.

Frost is currently on LHVs 3rd line. Not exactly soaking up 22 minutes a game.
 

bobbythebrain

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Jul 30, 2016
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What do you mean by it has become predictable? His actual shot?

Yes sir. I've been calling it for months now in GDTs.

And vioala, another 2 field goals yesterday from prime spots.

Do i think some bad luck as far as teammates has hit G?..absolutely

Is it as dyer as some make it? No way

He's been pissing away chances with poor shooting and decision making also
 

Ghosts Beer

I saw Goody Fletcher with the Devil!
Feb 10, 2014
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I think there's a mixture of reasons Giroux's production is down.

He's 32.

He's had to play a lot of center, where he isn't as effective anymore.

He's playing a more defensive role (and doing it pretty well).

He likely has been banged up, as he went through a stretch where he was losing more faceoffs than usual and had no power or acceleration in his stride. Even uncharacteristically didn't pursue a couple of forechecks like he normally would have.

Bad luck.

Overall, he's still a very important player, playing a big role, and a big part of their success so far.
 
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Rebels57

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I mean, players on ice with him have shot at ~1.4% this year... vs 9.3% last year... despite better shot locations when he is on ice.

What can Giroux do about that really?

Low danger 5v5 shots from outside the circles, along boards etc have a 3% chance of going in in the NHL...

The thing is, outside of first 10 games, he hasnt set up the type of scoring chances he did in years past on a consistent basis. Thats part of the reason for the low shooting percentage off his passes. I think the PP has badly effected his confidence to be honest..and thats not his fault.

He was a passenger in January but I did like his game last night. If he brings it like more often than more points will come.
 
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Rebels57

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Couts is the better overall player, but Giroux is still our best offensive player and definitely still better than TK. TK is the better goal scorer though.

Without the insane bad luck and the sabotaged PP Giroux would still be our leading scorer.

Coots and TK have both clearly been more dominant offensively this year. I think Voracek has been too.
 

Rebels57

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Yes sir. I've been calling it for months now in GDTs.

And vioala, another 2 field goals yesterday from prime spots.

Do i think some bad luck as far as teammates has hit G?..absolutely

Is it as dyer as some make it? No way

He's been pissing away chances with poor shooting and decision making also

Yeah he did have 2 grade A opportunities last night and fired one right into the goalies stomach on the first 1 and missed the net on the other. Thats not luck, its lack of execution.
 

Striiker

Former Flyers Fan
Jun 2, 2013
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Yeah he did have 2 grade A opportunities last night and fired one right into the goalies stomach on the first 1 and missed the net on the other. Thats not luck, its lack of execution.
Which happens to literally every single player and is proof of exactly nothing.
 

bobbythebrain

Registered User
Jul 30, 2016
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Yeah he did have 2 grade A opportunities last night and fired one right into the goalies stomach on the first 1 and missed the net on the other. Thats not luck, its lack of execution.

He rifled 2 wide actually, along with the chest one. He's been missing those gifts all year
 

Tripod

I hate this team
Aug 12, 2008
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Yeah he did have 2 grade A opportunities last night and fired one right into the goalies stomach on the first 1 and missed the net on the other. Thats not luck, its lack of execution.
And he sent TK in on a breakaway that TK got stopped on. Yes still lack of execution....but at SOME point, since he is creating the same amount of chances as he has the last 2 years AND the same amount of high danger chances....you have to think he is freakin cursed.

When guys he set up are scoring less than 2% on their shots....that's bad luck on G's part. The law of averages say in no way should it be close to that low. Then add in the PP which you know they don't think is the best setup for success. It must be very frustrating....doing everything right and no results...then watch dip shits do all sorts of wrong and get rewarded for it with good results.
 

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