Wheeler: Risers and fallers since the 2019 NHL Draft
Two prospects mentioned in Wheeler's risers & fallers from the 2019 draft:
Tyce Thompson, C, 6-foot-1 (New Jersey Devils/Providence College)
Actual draft pick: No. 96
My final ranking: Not ranked in my top 100.
Thompson’s one of those players whose production has never really aligned with my assessment of his skill set. Passed up in his draft year after mediocre results in the USHL, Thompson was selected as an overager following a decent freshman year. Then he got a Hobey Baker nod as a sophomore and one of the NCAA’s top scorers — and slowly began to look like a shrewd, late-blooming pick in the process. He doesn’t shy away physically, he makes decisions quickly, he’s got some evasiveness to his game as a puck carrier and creator, and he has shown improved shooting/scoring ability. I still think he should go back to college for at least another year before he turns pro but I now see considerably less risk in his NHL projection than I did.
Jack Hughes (New Jersey Devils) and Kaapo Kakko (New York Rangers)
This isn’t about whether the draft order at the top would change for either of these two players in hindsight. Nearly nine months later, I still think Hughes and Kakko were selected in the right spots. That’s unlikely to change too. I believe Hughes has point per game potential and the ability to be one of the NHL’s most dynamic playmaking threats on the power play. I believe Kakko has consistent 30-40 goal potential as a powerful, high-skill winger with size. In that way, my projection for the pair hasn’t changed in a drastic way just yet. But there’s no question I expected both would have a more pronounced immediate impact than they have. Given the seasons they had with the NTDP and TPS respectively, as well as their skill sets, most believed they were capable of challenging for 50-60 points. But as it stands today, they would each need to play at a point per game pace down the stretch just to challenge 40 points. When you look back at the rookie seasons of recent top two-picks, they’re closer to Nolan Patrick territory (30 points in 73 games) than they are to Andrei Svechnikov (37 points) or Nico Hischier (52 points). Both have struggled mightily in stretches. At this point in the season, I expected they’d both be, at least peripherally, in Calder Trophy conversation. They aren’t. Next year will be telling.