McAvoy was absolutely a projected stud. He had tons of hype around him and I was shocked he fell to 14. That's like saying Barzal wasn't a projected stud because he went 16th. The draft is weird, sometimes great players fall for seemingly no reason. Happens every year. People will be saying the same about Cole Caufield.
how many playoffs can you go back and find at least 15 names we would all call studs?
its safe to say that if a player was a stud... he would still be playing in the league 13 years after his draft... so lets say 10 drafts times 15 players... equals 150 players... are you able to list 150 players that you would classify as studs?
even if teams felt confident they could draft the best 15 players 1-through-15, that is a pretty tough standard to meet. when you factor in that at least 33% of the best players in any draft fall below the top 15 I think you become a lot less certain about what you are finding when drafting 13-14-15
most teams are starting to consider drafting character 3rd liners if that guy is a sure thing... and then they are starting to gamble on guys with major flaws that might never pan out. you can hope for a stud, but its only fans wishing with their hearts that believe its more than a 50-50 flip of the coin that a player drafted at 14 would ever have a meaningful career let alone be a stud
lets look at McAvoy and the drafts before his in 2016
2015... jake debrusk... not quite a stud yet but probably headed that way
2014...Julius honka… headed towards bustville?
2013...alexander wennberg… managed to get horribly overpaid
2012...zemgus girgensons… 400 game career as a bottom six
2011...Jamie Oleksiak... very tall player
2010...jaden scwartz… probably the best player in this list so far... is he a stud?
2009...Dmitri Kulikov... I thought I would have hit a stud by now but lets keep looking
2008...Zach boychuk… definitely a bust
2007...kevin Shattenkirk... are we going to use the word stud for him?
2006...michael grabner… yeah this is 10... lets do 2 more
2005...sasha pokulok… did any of us ever hear of this guy before?
2004...devan dubnyk
so... heres 13 years of drafting at spot 14... I think we got the best 2 guys in McAvoy and debrusk with only Shattenkirk and scwartz close
I just continue to find it amazing how much misconception there is of drafts and how fans think its going to be a disaster if they dont get a 'stud' at 14 or whatever...
theres very very very little chance of getting a stud outside the top 5-10 picks. it can happen, but getting a solid second liner is beating the odds and once you drop past pick 20... the chances of getting a guy that is still a regular nhl player after 5 years of development drops below 50% and quickly goes down as you reach the end of the first round
you need some luck to find the nhl quality kids if you arent picking top 10