GDT: Carolina @ New York Islanders - Game 1

[AlphaLackey]

It’s not early for us. We’ve watched it all year.

It sucks. Believe us.

I believe you when you say it sucks.

Now you need to believe me when I say that a sucky (i.e. "bottom quartile") power play will still go 0-4 in one single game about 1 in 6 times due to nothing more than random chance alone.

 

[Rempe73]

playoff staal is the best staal...

You can tell he wants it bad. After waiting that long to make it, a veteran like that is going to make the most of it.

 

[zman77]

 

[Tryamw]

so uh whats the total goals scored in this series do you figure

7 in 5?

 

[AlphaLackey]

so uh whats the total goals scored in this series do you figure

This game had a 4.5 total line in game 1, let's assume that holds during the series, expected to end in 6 most likely... 4.5 * 5 + 1 = 23-24.

 

[Lawd Stanley]

Let's pump the brakes a touch. I'd very much buy a theory that RBA outcoached Trotz, but the diffrences in coaches are spelled out in 1-in-a-hundred units. Even if RBA was the better coach and helped his road team actually be a sports-book-defying 52-48 favorite, our team still expected to win 52% of a game yet won 100% of a game. Many variables made it go our way. Mr. Azek's great saves, the referee dice rolls working out our way (HOLY **** they admitted they blew a call AND RECTIFIED IT when a Canes player was gushing out his jugular), etc.

The best math model in the industry has "Canes in 6" right now. I'm fine with that

There is always randomness involved but I know the Caps strategies and it’s the same as last season. Reirden uses the same x’s and o’s. I don’t care about models and probability—I’m strictly talking about being outcoached. Trotz is the better coach but if he doesn’t adjust his plans it’s over. RBA as you call him, knows what they are doing. It’s even obvious to casual fans. And the Islanders are not skilled enough to even score a goal using it. The Caps got shutout once too. About the missed call— the Canes we’re guilty of the same thing but it was never rectified. Didn’t change the outcome but it also had no consequence in this game.

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

 

[The Stig]

Road wins in game 1 are goooooood

 

[Navin R Slavin]

I believe you when you say it sucks.

Now you need to believe me when I say that a sucky (i.e. "bottom quartile") power play will still go 0-4 in one single game about 1 in 6 times due to nothing more than random chance alone.

You really should look up our PDO history over the last several years, LOL.

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

in case this week hasn't been weird enough lol



Love it!

 

[Lawd Stanley]

When I first saw that I wasn’t like “settle down it’s the first round.” Then I watched it again and was like “yea he tripped over the snow snake.”

 

[AlphaLackey]

There is always randomness involved but I know the Caps strategies and it’s the same as last season. Reirden uses the same x’s and o’s. I don’t care about models and probability—I’m strictly talking about being outcoached. Trotz is the better coach but if he doesn’t adjust his plans it’s over. RBA as you call him, knows what they are doing. It’s even obvious to casual fans. And the Islanders are not skilled enough to even score a goal using it. The Caps got shutout once too. About the missed call— the Canes we’re guilty of the same thing but it was never rectified. Didn’t change the outcome but it also had no consequence in this game.

Having read your post, I actually think we agree on the salient points. I LOVED RBA as a player. True story, as a young man MANY years and years ago playing in a "math simulation keeper league" RBA was one of my prized rookie draft picks.. back in a time when Mark Howe was a veteran D man and RBA was a hotshot rookie on my D corps so I know he knows the game and I have known for decades that he absolutely has all the hockey chops -- pragma and dogma!

All I would argue is that RBA's edge over Trotz, in a very large statistical sample, is measured in pennies instead of shillings.

The Canes were, in my opinion, the slightly better team despite being road dogs. That should be amazing. PLUS, in addition to being theoretical betters, we also won the die roll. That should ALSO be worth celebrating.

All I want to do is stop anyone from imagining a coaching gamut from 1 to 100 where RBA is 100 and Trotz is 1. 55-45 at worst, IMO.

 

[zman77]

This was a very tough Play-Off Road Win!!
'Canes win without Martinook.
Staal's shot was quick!
Great Hockey!!

 

[My Special Purpose]

This game had a 4.5 total line in game 1, let's assume that holds during the series, expected to end in 6 most likely... 4.5 * 5 + 1 = 23-24.

Hammering the under.

 

[3CanesInTheBox]

he is literally transforming into a beast before our eyes. that doesn't EVEN look like Jordan--couldn't pick him out of a lineup based on that pic.

He's got to be one of the BEST after-a-goal reaction guys ever.

 

[Hockey Freak 7]

in case this week hasn't been weird enough lol



Love it!

I love this. I think some classy teams should support one another and have no issues of see great talent with hard work..

You can have all the skill in the world, However, Skill with hard work to be better with letting it and being unselfish to be one with your team gets your far. Excuse . Prime Player: Sidney Crosby is that example and plus many more..

Staal And William is like that.. He know he can do more be a leader..

Aho and Warren have that . Hamilton too. He took the time to be better within the the team after struggling and putting pressure on himself try to fitting.. I remember he was struggling a little bit..

Talent / Skill gotta shine with hard work and doing what it takes.. With Coach believe and know when to get everything out you. Good or bad.

 

[sabremike]

There is always randomness involved but I know the Caps strategies and it’s the same as last season. Reirden uses the same x’s and o’s. I don’t care about models and probability—I’m strictly talking about being outcoached. Trotz is the better coach but if he doesn’t adjust his plans it’s over. RBA as you call him, knows what they are doing. It’s even obvious to casual fans. And the Islanders are not skilled enough to even score a goal using it. The Caps got shutout once too. About the missed call— the Canes we’re guilty of the same thing but it was never rectified. Didn’t change the outcome but it also had no consequence in this game.

The Isles would've scored several goals tonight but Mrazek stood on his head. This one hurts but it was still one of the greatest games I have ever seen. 2 things about the Canes: the first is they are incredible on the boards and in sealing them on clearing attempts. The other is that they are excellent at the technique of flipping pop up grenades into the opposing zone which is such a dangerous thing for the defending team.

 

[zman77]

Character Win!!
Boys play together as a team.
Teams with 'star players' do not always win.
Play-Off hockey is about mental and physical toughness.

 

[zman77]

 

[CaniacSZN]

This game had a 4.5 total line in game 1, let's assume that holds during the series, expected to end in 6 most likely... 4.5 * 5 + 1 = 23-24.

4.5 where? Every book in the world had it at 5.

 

[zman77]

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Did something happen between Teuvo and Komarov early in the game? I swear every time there was a stoppage with those two on the ice Komarov was going after Turbo.

 

[zman77]

Carolina Hurricanes Retweeted
FOX Sports Carolinas‏Verified account @CanesOnFSCR 31m31 minutes ago

"We're a group that's always had worked hard, but I don't know that we expected results.
And now every night we play, even the, injuries we have, the guys we got in our lineup,
we still expect to win."
Rod Brind'Amour on the mentality and culture of the @NHLCanes.

 

[Chrispy]

he is literally transforming into a beast before our eyes. that doesn't EVEN look like Jordan--couldn't pick him out of a lineup based on that pic.

He's got to be one of the BEST after-a-goal reaction guys ever.

I can't be the only one on f26 who watches American Gods.

Jordan has gone full Mad Sweeney.

 

[AlphaLackey]

4.5 where? Every book in the world had it at 5.

the books I frequent don't do whole numbers on totals, they do halves with minor money line adjustments (+/- 120 on a 4.5 type line) . I don't know enough about "whole numbers with pushes" lines like you describe.