Player Discussion Carey Price - Covid Playoff Edition

[David Suzuki]

Habs fans have been notoriously overprotective of Price

Man idk what Habs fans you know but I constantly see people bashing Price. It's way more the media who does it, then the fans IMO.

 

[habergeon]

I keep reading Price will bounce back or Price will be fine...but why?

What evidence is there to support this, other than blind faith?

The last season he had that was really good was 2016-2017 (so basically before his 30's). And we are sitting here in 2021...

I hope this comes across the right way, because I enjoy your posts and come in peace.

I've been a Price fan since junior. For me, I think the evidence comes from when he was aged 17-33, there has been nothing in those 16 years to give any credence whatsoever that he won't come back and won't be fine. He is 4th in wins among active goalies, 3rd in games played among active, 9th in GAA and 8th in Save %, again among all active goalies.

If you look at performance probability, not blind faith, if anything he has shown to be one of the upper echelon goalies his entire career at every level. That also holds up statistically, and if you factor in that the majority of his prime was played behind virtual lottery teams, the numbers look even gaudier. Last year, he was amazing in the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs? 8th is playoff wins among current, 6th in games played, 13th in save %, 15 in GAA, and I'd argue that other than year 1 of Bergevins tenure, there haven't been a legit playoff team in front of Price in quite some time. But he still plays well.

Has he played well this season? No. Consistent? No. Does he have to get better? Of course, yes. There is nothing to argue there, he has let in a LOT of soft goals, and it's unacceptable. But looking over the course of nearly two decades of work, despite his age I don't see anything to suggest this is anything other than a prolonged funk he needs to work out of. I think the solution is the more he plays, the better he gets, but you can't justify playing him this much if he plays the way he is. Quite a problem!

But will he come back?? The only evidence I see suggesting otherwise coming the other way is the argument he is 33, a 20 game body of work and the fact he makes 10.5 million dollars (And the odd statistical comparison to perennial backup Halak suggesting they are one in the same).

So I guess my question is, other than his age and his contract, what evidence is there he WON'T bounce back and be successful? I'm legitimately curious, but all I hear is his contract and his age.

 

[dinodebino]

He used to be square to the puck, big in nets, focused and not rely on spectacular moves to be made. He was the prototypical goalie of the 2000's. What happened with that style? He's rarely square (W3K knows much more about goalies than I do, he could comment here), he moves a ton, he's got to rely on acrobatic moves in order to make regular saves. What happened? Age, focus, committment, training?

 

[BushFireRecordsRedux]

If someone were to trade him after we pay his $11M signing bonus this summer, he would only be owed $33.25M ($6.65M a year) for the remaining 5 years of his deal which a team that doesn't spend to the cap could find more manageable if they believe he can bounce back.

Those are his age 34-38 seasons. Bounce back to what? Bounce back from sucking to league average? No team would give him near 5 x 6.65 right now. Nevermind with a burdensome cap hit for 5 years (even if you're not a cap team now, who knows about 5 years from now). The fact that a lot of the 33.25 remaining would be paid out in signing bonuses probably wouldn't appeal to the cap floor (poor) teams we're talking about. Certainly not for a goalie playing like this.

The only scenarios that seem plausible right now are, a trade for another awful contract with major term (maybe Skinner?) which would involve him moving his NMC to go to another messy organization. Or eating half of his contract after his next bonus and finding a team who will take his 5.75 cap hit (and lower real dollars) but that saddles us with half his cap hit for 5 years and we're still talking about selling his age 34-38 season. I think the illusion that he's Martin Brodeur and he's going to age as a star goalie is pretty well shattered around the league. Carey's my favourite player ever, I hate that he's going out like this but it feels like either he'll fix his game and play well enough they'll keep him or he'll keep playing shitty - league average and we're basically stuck with him.

 

[habergeon]

Man idk what Habs fans you know but I constantly see people bashing Price. It's way more the media who does it, then the fans IMO.

I agree, it's pretty constant and has been for some time. It's almost Desharnais level some nights, which I just find odd. I don't think we make the playoffs 2008 onward without him, can't say that about a lot of players in this league. He's made this team look much better than it ever was.

But the criticism this year is definitely warranted.

 

[Habs]

A good coach, and goalie coach , would explain to numbnuts that red pads are a disadvantage. Its a huge advantage for the shooter, it highlights the shooting areas... IS HE Pejorative SlurED OR SOMETHING?

 

[Gustave]

He exudes nervousness and he wants to favour ALL AT THE SAME TIME his five hole and his blocker side. Which is terrible because it f***s up all of his technique. In other words, he’s leaking.

Just let Allen take the ball from here on out.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Man idk what Habs fans you know but I constantly see people bashing Price. It's way more the media who does it, then the fans IMO.

The Toronto board was the same way with Andersen when they dropped a single game against Ottawa last week. Our teams are a nightmare to play for. If literally any other goalie other then the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs goes on a slump, it’s either barely talked about or forgotten fairly quickly. If it happens here, people will bring it up 5 years later. It’s just the nature of this market. It’s embarrassing to be honest.

 

[BushFireRecordsRedux]

The Toronto board was the same way with Andersen when they dropped a single game against Ottawa last week. Our teams are a nightmare to play for. If literally any other goalie other then the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs goes on a slump, it’s either barely talked about or forgotten fairly quickly. If it happens here, people will bring it up 5 years later. It’s just the nature of this market. It’s embarrassing to be honest.

Ehhh, yeah there's a lot of shit talk in both markets but it happens in every big fan base. Carey gets a lot of rope, he has a lot of fans and support. I can't imagine many markets you can play like he has, make what he makes and escape severe criticism.

 

[Perrah]

I keep reading Price will bounce back or Price will be fine...but why?

What evidence is there to support this, other than blind faith?

The last season he had that was really good was 2016-2017 (so basically before his 30's). And we are sitting here in 2021...

18 -11-2 .925 2.29

Jan 2019-end of season

 

[HereInTheNord]

Honest question here, in the past, Price tried the red pads experiment quite a few times to always come back to the white pads. Red pads experiment from memory always been disastrous. I know it's gear and should not really matter, but I do think color pads will make it easier to see openings/flaws to a player in the hint of the moment. Are there actual stats out there about his stats records using different gear. I feel he's currently shaken and the issue is deeper than that, but it's something I wondered for quite some time.

 

[Tuggy]

I hope this comes across the right way, because I enjoy your posts and come in peace.

I've been a Price fan since junior. For me, I think the evidence comes from when he was aged 17-33, there has been nothing in those 16 years to give any credence whatsoever that he won't come back and won't be fine. He is 4th in wins among active goalies, 3rd in games played among active, 9th in GAA and 8th in Save %, again among all active goalies.

If you look at performance probability, not blind faith, if anything he has shown to be one of the upper echelon goalies his entire career at every level. That also holds up statistically, and if you factor in that the majority of his prime was played behind virtual lottery teams, the numbers look even gaudier. Last year, he was amazing in the playoffs.

Speaking of playoffs? 8th is playoff wins among current, 6th in games played, 13th in save %, 15 in GAA, and I'd argue that other than year 1 of Bergevins tenure, there haven't been a legit playoff team in front of Price in quite some time. But he still plays well.

Has he played well this season? No. Consistent? No. Does he have to get better? Of course, yes. There is nothing to argue there, he has let in a LOT of soft goals, and it's unacceptable. But looking over the course of nearly two decades of work, despite his age I don't see anything to suggest this is anything other than a prolonged funk he needs to work out of. I think the solution is the more he plays, the better he gets, but you can't justify playing him this much if he plays the way he is. Quite a problem!

But will he come back?? The only evidence I see suggesting otherwise coming the other way is the argument he is 33, a 20 game body of work and the fact he makes 10.5 million dollars (And the odd statistical comparison to perennial backup Halak suggesting they are one in the same).

So I guess my question is, other than his age and his contract, what evidence is there he WON'T bounce back and be successful? I'm legitimately curious, but all I hear is his contract and his age.

I really hope you're right, truly I do.

Outside of the play in last season, the last 4 years have been average to poor.

I guess that's my evidence. This isn't a one off season/stretch. He hasn't been great for a while.

No doubt he's had a great career, but my worry is that what we see is what we get.

Could he return to form? Maybe.

But what if the last 4 seasons are what he is now and he's not going to bounce back, but continue this play or worse.

He's going to be 34 this year and the majority of professional athletes don't improve/maintain as they reach their mid 30's...

 

[Perrah]

Jan 1st, 2020 - End of season

11-12-3 .918 2.50

Great, no, but suitable.

 

[Gabriel Sagala]

Jan 1st, 2020 - End of season

11-12-3 .918 2.50

Great, no, but suitable.

.918 is nice
2.5 average
11-12-3 garbage

 

[azcanuck]

Has he played well this season? No. Consistent? No. Does he have to get better? Of course, yes. There is nothing to argue there, he has let in a LOT of soft goals, and it's unacceptable. But looking over the course of nearly two decades of work, despite his age I don't see anything to suggest this is anything other than a prolonged funk he needs to work out of. I think the solution is the more he plays, the better he gets, but you can't justify playing him this much if he plays the way he is. Quite a problem!
So I guess my question is, other than his age and his contract, what evidence is there he WON'T bounce back and be successful? I'm legitimately curious, but all I hear is his contract and his age.

Evidence? you want evidence. How about 3 years plus of mediocre numbers. What's it going to take to realize this guy is over the hill and just an outright albatross on this team?

Should we be as certain as the players are about Price’s deity status? Over the past three seasons, 77 goalies have logged 1,000-plus minutes at 5-on-5. Among that group, Price ranks 39th in save percentage; 41st in goals saved above average per 60 minutes; 54th in high-danger SP; 53rd in medium-danger SP; and 32nd in low-danger SP. Diving down to the deepest part of the analytics ocean reveals metrics such as shot location that indicate Price was actually quite good in 2018-19, but if you look at the larger three-year sample, the stats would suggest he barely grades out as a league-average goalie despite the NHLPA picking him as the world’s No. 1 every time.

 

[azcanuck]

Jan 1st, 2020 - End of season

11-12-3 .918 2.50

Great, no, but suitable.

how about the last three years plus?

Over the past three seasons, 77 goalies have logged 1,000-plus minutes at 5-on-5. Among that group, Price ranks 39th in save percentage; 41st in goals saved above average per 60 minutes; 54th in high-danger SP; 53rd in medium-danger SP; and 32nd in low-danger SP.

 

[Perrah]

how about the last three years plus?

Over the past three seasons, 77 goalies have logged 1,000-plus minutes at 5-on-5. Among that group, Price ranks 39th in save percentage; 41st in goals saved above average per 60 minutes; 54th in high-danger SP; 53rd in medium-danger SP; and 32nd in low-danger SP.

Take out his putrid 2017-18, and show the numbers. Why 1000 minutes, that not even a starter levels. Id use 1500 minutes+ per season, 1000 isnt even 20-25 starts.

Edit: To be clear, I am not saying the numbers will catapult him to the top excluding his terrible 2017-18 but that year was a clear step below any other season. I think the last 2 full season will give better indicators on his play. Inconsistent with some low lows and highs

 

[azcanuck]

Take out his putrid 2017-18, and show the numbers. Why 1000 minutes, that not even a starter levels. Id use 1500 minutes+ per season, 1000 isnt even 20-25 starts.

Why not take out this year, last year and 2017? And then we have 2018 , which is very good. Would that make you happy and still consider him elite?

 

[Mario Lemieux fan 66]

That contract will rape the team hard until the end of that contract. Price will deserve all the hate he will get to accept a contract he had no possible way to live up to.

 

[Perrah]

Why not take out this year, last year and 2017? And then we have 2018 , which is very good. Would that make you happy and still consider him elite?

I dont see an answer in this nonsense to why you picked such a small number of minutes, also see the edit gumshoe.

 

[Suzuki x 14]

As bad as Price as been, Im still almost 100% sure he will score before Danault

 

[nhlfan9191]

I dont see an answer in this nonsense to why you picked such a small number of minutes, also see the edit gumshoe.

He picked a small number of minutes because it makes Price look as bad as possible which is what his agenda is. It’s really as simple as that.

 

[loudi94]

Ditch the red gear and get a haircut. Fresh start.....Oh and stop letting in shitty goals.

Problem solved.

 

[azcanuck]

I dont see an answer in this nonsense to why you picked such a small number of minutes, also see the edit gumshoe.

Right now Price is 50th in the league in SP. With the same defense in front of him Allen is 5th. The excuse of bad backups/too many minutes is gone.
Last year Price's SP was middle of the league.
How is he not an average goalie now?

 

[azcanuck]

He picked a small number of minutes because it makes Price look as bad as possible which is what his agenda is. It’s really as simple as that.

Price signed his contract on July 2, 2017. Since then, he has played 193 games, including the playoffs. During this period, he stopped 5230 of 5746 shots, giving him a goals-against average of 2.72 and a save percentage of .911. He also posted 11 shutouts during this time, including two in the playoffs last summer.
During the four years prior to signing the eight-year deal, Price played 229 games. He saved 6334 shots of 6829 possible, with a GAA of 2.16 and a save percentage of .928. He posted 22 shutouts during those years.

Which way is he trending? He's 50th in the league right now in SP. His SP is .888, last year it was .909

This is Price without any of the comparisons you want to negate. What do you think?