Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 5

[Random schmoe]

Problem with a lot of the free agent centers that are good enough to step into the Caps top 6 is that they're younger and will be looking for long term deals, which the Caps probably don't want to commit to. That's why I threw the name Krejci out as a possibility.

Another option would be to look at trading for a guy who is a year or two away from free agency (and may not cost an arm and a leg to trade for). That's why a guy like Kadri is a good call, someone like Victor Rask err, never mind, I just looked at his stats, he's not top 6 material for this team.

 

[twabby]

He also has the highest offensive zone start percentage of anyone who has played this year not named McMichael or Sgarbossa. (87.78%). He averages 2.42 D-zone starts/60, vs 17.4 offensive and 13 neutral. The only player that starts in the defensive zone LESS than Kuznetsov is Ovechkin. Don't think it's fair to attribute 'not allowing a lot of goals against' to him.

Many models don’t really think zone starts have much to do with observed goal impacts. Here’s Micah’s writeup on it:

Model: Magnus 4 (EV)

• Zone effects are also surprisingly small; their total extent is considerably smaller than competition effects which are themselves smaller than teammate effects. By focussing on only offensive zone faceoffs and defensive zone faceoffs, as some analyses do, differences between contexts which are in fact quite small can appear heavily inflated

 

[Silky mitts]

I don’t understand how Kuzy could get COVID twice in like 6 months and not give it to any teammate, except maybe Samsonov, twice.

 

[Calicaps]

I don’t understand how Kuzy could get COVID twice in like 6 months and not give it to any teammate, except maybe Samsonov, twice.

He doesn't have to have covid to be in protocol. He just has to have risked exposure/broken the rules.

 

[txpd]

Kuznetsov is 5th in 5v5 ice time per game amongst forwards on the team (ahead of Tom Wilson, FWIW), and 6th in all-situations ice time. Sounds like a top 6 center to me.

@Hivemind already pointed out the point production which has been quite good of late after a slow start. But he's also been really good defensively! In fact he's allowed the fewest 5v5 goals against/60 of anyone on the team! And aside from Sprong and the recently departed Vrana, Kuznetsov has the best on-ice goals for/60 at 5v5.

So to recap:

1. He's playing top 6 minutes
2. He's individually producing like a top line player
3. As a team the Capitals do not allow a lot of goals while he's on the ice
4. As a team the Capitals score a lot of goals while he's on the ice

The problem is off the ice. The criticisms there are valid, and might not even go far enough, or they might be going too far. We don't know!

But we do know his on-ice performance has been very good.

I know you were there when he was moved to the line with Sprong and they got 4th line minutes for a couple of games before he was moved back. You remember that. Thats what I was talking about.

I know. Kuzy is the best center on the team and Backstrom is struggling.

 

[Raikkonen]

I mean the idea we come out of any transaction with a better player on a better contract is a little overly optimistic, putting it lightly. The question is how much of a downgrade and is it really a downgrade if its addition by subtraction - swapping out talented but not dedicated for dedicated but less talented? Is that really a loss?

I'm not even sure we will get to see if Kuzy can be CS Kuz again.... feels like he may have played his last game here?

Would be extremely dumb imho. Carr is not the answer

But next season - I think those who will expect him to play next season as a Cap are already in minority.

Id think there is a simple off ice explanation for his troubles. Cant confirm it though.

 

[Hivemind]

I know you were there when he was moved to the line with Sprong and they got 4th line minutes for a couple of games before he was moved back. You remember that. Thats what I was talking about.

I know. Kuzy is the best center on the team and Backstrom is struggling.

Once upon a time, Dale Hunter played Jay Beagle 20 minutes per game and Ovechkin 12 minutes. Doesn't make Jay Beagle a 1st liner or Ovie a 3rd liner.

 

[trick9]

Our window is effectively closed once we trade Kuznetsov. You aren't getting much in terms of immediate help if you trade him. At best you are getting a lesser player with red flags too.

I wouldn't trade him yet. He still has that game-breaking ability that we need if we want another Cup, even if he doesn't really show it that often anymore. He did show it in 2018 Playoffs and nobody didn't expect that to happen then either.

He's not really a guy i would want around for the rebuild phase though. Atleast he would have to mature a lot but right now that doesn't seem very likely.

His 15-team no-trade list also effectively ends their hopes of trading him unless you are taking on shitty contracts in return.

 

[Melkor]

One thing I didn't like about Mantha so far is his compete level. Like with a body like that he would be much more helpful if he were a bit quicker on the feet and used more sheer power when he's battling for the puck along the boards. I think he also needs to be more aware where his teammates are when they're doing cycles. Often caught him having a bad timing on the passes with not enough/too much velocity on them or even going in the opposite direction into a no man's land. He definite;y needs to up his intensity level come playoff time, so far he hasn't scored enough to make up for lack thereof

 

[Raikkonen]

Thinking about center position next season. They need someone better than both Eller and CMM. That could be the end of Eller here. He has value, moderate salary but cap space could be and will be at premium for Caps.

If new 2C is kinda capable defensively I can see Backstrom-newGuy-CMM-Dowd lineup. Financially and long term that very well could be better for the team.

Having adequate 2-way 2C makes rookie 3C much more palatable (especially if its say Sheary-McMichael-Oshie).

Although trading Schultz could be easier way to gain those millions.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Kuznetsov is 5th in 5v5 ice time per game amongst forwards on the team (ahead of Tom Wilson, FWIW), and 6th in all-situations ice time. Sounds like a top 6 center to me.

@Hivemind already pointed out the point production which has been quite good of late after a slow start. But he's also been really good defensively! In fact he's allowed the fewest 5v5 goals against/60 of anyone on the team! And aside from Sprong and the recently departed Vrana, Kuznetsov has the best on-ice goals for/60 at 5v5.

So to recap:

1. He's playing top 6 minutes
2. He's individually producing like a top line player
3. As a team the Capitals do not allow a lot of goals while he's on the ice
4. As a team the Capitals score a lot of goals while he's on the ice

The problem is off the ice. The criticisms there are valid, and might not even go far enough, or they might be going too far. We don't know!

But we do know his on-ice performance has been very good.

Well that 5on5 ice time is a little bit skewed. Obv any player that plays very little PP (and no PK) will be on the ice after the special teams players return to the bench. Logically — since they only play 5on5 — they’d have more of it in percentage of overall ice time than others. And that high percentage could also logically mean an overall high number on 5on5 ice time.... as it does here.

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[EroCaps]

Our window is effectively closed once we trade Kuznetsov. You aren't getting much in terms of immediate help if you trade him. At best you are getting a lesser player with red flags too.

I wouldn't trade him yet. He still has that game-breaking ability that we need if we want another Cup, even if he doesn't really show it that often anymore. He did show it in 2018 Playoffs and nobody didn't expect that to happen then either.

He's not really a guy i would want around for the rebuild phase though. Atleast he would have to mature a lot but right now that doesn't seem very likely.

His 15-team no-trade list also effectively ends their hopes of trading him unless you are taking on shitty contracts in return.

So McMichael sucks? Should he spend another year in the AHL or?..

Their window is effectively closed with Kuznetsov playing like he has the last 3 years. At least adding new blood and using that cap space elsewhere might create a new formula.

I think if they play their cards right they can extend their window and avoid a full-scale rebuild.

 

[txpd]

Once upon a time, Dale Hunter played Jay Beagle 20 minutes per game and Ovechkin 12 minutes. Doesn't make Jay Beagle a 1st liner or Ovie a 3rd liner.

If dropping Kuzy to Sprong and Sheary and playing him 4th line minutes means you are saying he is a 4th line player, what does scratching Vrana say? It was disciplinary. You know that

 

[Jacoby4HOF66]

 

[ovikovy817]

At least he can stop and start in the other direction. Progress.

 

[txpd]

Our window is effectively closed once we trade Kuznetsov. You aren't getting much in terms of immediate help if you trade him. At best you are getting a lesser player with red flags too.

I wouldn't trade him yet. He still has that game-breaking ability that we need if we want another Cup, even if he doesn't really show it that often anymore. He did show it in 2018 Playoffs and nobody didn't expect that to happen then either.

He's not really a guy i would want around for the rebuild phase though. Atleast he would have to mature a lot but right now that doesn't seem very likely.

His 15-team no-trade list also effectively ends their hopes of trading him unless you are taking on shitty contracts in return.

1. The window is not closed if Kuzy is out.
2. Kuzy's 2017-18 regular season was easily his most dominant. There is just no comparison to the player from that regular and post seasons and the player since.
3. I agree that Kuzy is the difference maker when at his best. When he is not and when he is tearing at the fabric of the team he is not a positive force much less the difference maker.

Conclusion. MacLellan knows the importance of Kuznetsov. That is why he called him out after last season and why he singled him out for improvement when Laviolette was hired. It certainly appears that attempts by Lavy to change Kuzy's attitude have failed. At somepoint that will become untenable. He wouldnt be traded til they have exhausted all other avenues.

 

[Calicaps]

1. The window is not closed if Kuzy is out.
2. Kuzy's 2017-18 regular season was easily his most dominant. There is just no comparison to the player from that regular and post seasons and the player since.
3. I agree that Kuzy is the difference maker when at his best. When he is not and when he is tearing at the fabric of the team he is not a positive force much less the difference maker.

Conclusion. MacLellan knows the importance of Kuznetsov. That is why he called him out after last season and why he singled him out for improvement when Laviolette was hired. It certainly appears that attempts by Lavy to change Kuzy's attitude have failed. At somepoint that will become untenable. He wouldnt be traded til they have exhausted all other avenues.

All of this, but also, I am amazed at the lack of faith in BMac. Time and again he has shown an ability to find the right guy in trade or FA. Is he likely to find another 2018 Kuzy? Probably not. But he could potentially find a guy who brings skill + work ethic and is a net positive. Honestly removing 30 point covid Kuzy doesn't track as a huge loss to me.

 

[Carlzner]

Yeah it’s totally unfair now to say Kuznetsov hasn’t been good. He had a shitty month or two to start the season but he really turned a corner and seemed to buy in *on the ice.*

This place in general just has the mind of a goldfish.

I was unhappy with Kuznetsov at the start of the season despite his advanced stats apparently looking good, but he's been great the majority of the season.

Then what, he looks mediocre for like 3 games and everyone here starts trashing him again? Weird

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Yeah it’s totally unfair now to say Kuznetsov hasn’t been good. He had a shitty month or two to start the season but he really turned a corner and seemed to buy in *on the ice.*

I agree. Even more frustrating….he’s playing very well and by poor choice (it appears), he removes himself. Grrrr…..

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

All of this, but also, I am amazed at the lack of faith in BMac. Time and again he has shown an ability to find the right guy in trade or FA. Is he likely to find another 2018 Kuzy? Probably not. But he could potentially find a guy who brings skill + work ethic and is a net positive. Honestly removing 30 point covid Kuzy doesn't track as a huge loss to me.

yep….me too, but the plaintiff’s are hardcore Kuzy fans…..they seem a bit blinded to me. Fandom is powerful.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

One thing I didn't like about Mantha so far is his compete level. Like with a body like that he would be much more helpful if he were a bit quicker on the feet and used more sheer power when he's battling for the puck along the boards. I think he also needs to be more aware where his teammates are when they're doing cycles. Often caught him having a bad timing on the passes with not enough/too much velocity on them or even going in the opposite direction into a no man's land. He definite;y needs to up his intensity level come playoff time, so far he hasn't scored enough to make up for lack thereof

this seems more like the dream version of the guy Detroit fans wanted.

Nothing to really heavily dislike IMO. The playoffs are the first real measuring stick for him.

 

[Hivemind]

If dropping Kuzy to Sprong and Sheary and playing him 4th line minutes means you are saying he is a 4th line player, what does scratching Vrana say? It was disciplinary. You know that

You’re completely missing the point.

The point is STOP USING TIME ON ICE AS YOUR ONLY TOOL TO EVALUATE PLAYERS

 

[Melkor]

this seems more like the dream version of the guy Detroit fans wanted.

Nothing to really heavily dislike IMO. The playoffs are the first real measuring stick for him.

There's nothing I heavily dislike about him. Not enough sample size for giving this kind of assessment. Nevertheless there are some obvious deficiencies that would be nice to get fixed as soon as possible.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

yep….me too, but the plaintiff’s are hardcore Kuzy fans…..they seem a bit blinded to me. Fandom is powerful.

It goes both ways, doesn't it. Hatred/personal whipping boys is/are powerful.