Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 "Season" Pt. 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's a well studied phenomenon in psychology that as a whole, people underestimate the likelihood of negative events (such as a hockey player on their favorite team regressing badly)

The optimism bias - ScienceDirect

what’s it called when a person constantly overestimates?


You’re acting like people delusionally don’t think he’ll drop off eventually. Not the case at all. Everyone ages.

Point is, no need to prematurely amputate a perfectly well performing limb before you have to because of some fear that it will eventually hamper you.

I trust GMBM....he’s shown he can move a contract with relative ease when he has to.

 

[Roshi]

It's a well studied phenomenon in psychology that as a whole, people underestimate the likelihood of negative events (such as a hockey player on their favorite team regressing badly)

The optimism bias - ScienceDirect

What does the psychological book say about throwing away something thats good and working well for you just because of being scared that something negative might happen.

And thats in life general

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Oshie is not THAT good people. Calm down there a bit.

There may be more talented forwards on the team. However, can't remember when I thought Oshie took the night off whereas some of those more talented forwards well if they just had some of Oshie's heart.

 

[twabby]

Thats the point. Today we have a good player under a good contract. Why throw that away because of something that might be? Contending should be minimizing what ifs and concentrating for today.

Theres a lot of ways to get rid of a contract when we get to that point. We are not at that point yet.

This is where I'm at. Oshie will likely decline at some point during his contract but until then I think you keep the gang together for as long as they are competitive. He has his warts but he's still effective and I don't really think you get rid of that even if you discount the locker room presence. Very early but my protected list would be (assuming Ovie signs before the draft forcing them to protect him):

Ovechkin
Backstrom
Wilson
Kuznetsov
Oshie
Vrana
Eller

Carlson
Orlov
Dillon/Schultz

There isn't really a reason to expose Oshie unless both Dillon and Schultz play so well that they are forced to go 8 skaters instead of 7+3. I understand the flat cap combined with Ovechkin and Vrana needing new contracts is going to make things tight, but they have players that I'd rather move than Oshie if they need to make it work: Panik, Hagelin, Hathaway, and Jensen all come to mind.

 

[txpd]

Don't you think it's disingenuous to frame it that way since most likely Oshie won't be #2 in goals for the remainder of his contract, which is what we are discussing?

Is that what we were discussing? I specifically said that it was a pain now or pain later question. I specifically asked how you were going to replace his offense. I specified a cup contender next season not being one if they lost him. So, no. I was not talking about 5 years from now. I was talking about next season.

He remains a top producer and primary player on the team. As of today I see no reason to think next season would be much different. Are you willing to dent next season's team in order to make a better team 3 seasons down the road? Thats the question

 

[895]

Is that what we were discussing? I specifically said that it was a pain now or pain later question. I specifically asked how you were going to replace his offense. I specified a cup contender next season not being one if they lost him. So, no. I was not talking about 5 years from now. I was talking about next season.

I'll bet you Oshie won't be number 2 in goals next season.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

well he did say between 2012 and 2019....

Beg to differ, he said goalies drafted in the first round and then cited the years which happened to be 2012 and 2019 as being the years the goalies he mentioned were drafted. The word between was never mentioned.

 

[tenken00]

This is where I'm at. Oshie will likely decline at some point during his contract but until then I think you keep the gang together for as long as they are competitive. He has his warts but he's still effective and I don't really think you get rid of that even if you discount the locker room presence. Very early but my protected list would be (assuming Ovie signs before the draft forcing them to protect him):

Ovechkin
Backstrom
Wilson
Kuznetsov
Oshie
Vrana
Eller

Carlson
Orlov
Dillon/Schultz

There isn't really a reason to expose Oshie unless both Dillon and Schultz play so well that they are forced to go 8 skaters instead of 7+3. I understand the flat cap combined with Ovechkin and Vrana needing new contracts is going to make things tight, but they have players that I'd rather move than Oshie if they need to make it work: Panik, Hagelin, Hathaway, and Jensen all come to mind.

Just want to add Kempny to those 4 at the end. But after a year of struggling and then coming off a full injured season, not sure who will want him. At least it will finally only be 1 year left on his contract at that point.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Beg to differ, he said goalies drafted in the first round and then cited the years which happened to be 2012 and 2019 as being the years the goalies he mentioned were drafted. The word between was never mentioned.

not how I read it, but moving on....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'll bet you Oshie won't be number 2 in goals next season.

I bet you he won’t have to be, to earn his $5.75....

 

[txpd]

I'll bet you Oshie won't be number 2 in goals next season.

I see. You are saying that next season he will already not be worth his check. I dont agree with that unless he takes another concussion. Then he will like spend the rest of his contract on LTIR.

 

[895]

I see. You are saying that next season he will already not be worth his check. I dont agree with that unless he takes another concussion. Then he will like spend the rest of his contract on LTIR.

No, but dude, you were the one to frame the question as "where can you can someone who is no.2 in team goal scoring for 5.75m?"

Don't act disingenuous then pretend like you didn't.

 

[895]

I bet you he won’t have to be, to earn his $5.75....

Sure I agree but that's not what txpd said.

 

[txpd]

No, but dude, you were the one to frame the question as "where can you can someone who is no.2 in team goal scoring for 5.75m?"

Don't act disingenuous then pretend like you didn't.

Oh please. Yea. I will take that 2 in goal scoring. I also said you couldnt replace him and we all know I didnt just mean the goals. You think he will be worth his check or no?

 

[The Moose is Loose]

Any news on Samsonov and when he is expect to return?

 

[Carlzner]

Any news on Samsonov and when he is expect to return?

He has Covid, so probably in a week or something

 

[Rayquaza64]

Oh please. Yea. I will take that 2 in goal scoring. I also said you couldnt replace him and we all know I didnt just mean the goals. You think he will be worth his check or no?

I can guarantee you Oshie is replacable. There are options in FA that could match his production and wouldn't be as detrimental to the cap in the long term, or if big enough strides are made we could replace him with people we already have in the organization (McMichael, Sprong, etc.)

 

[Carlzner]

I can guarantee you Oshie is replacable. There are options in FA that could match his production and wouldn't be as detrimental to the cap in the long term, or if big enough strides are made we could replace him with people we already have in the organization (McMichael, Sprong, etc.)

Yeah, completely disagree here. Oshie brings far more to the table than the goals he scores, and he is absolutely underpaid for his contribution for the team. Just look at similar FA's and the deals they got. Late 20's/Early 30's scoring wingers aren't usually successful UFA contracts.

That being said, I would still expose him to get out of the last 2-3 years of that contract.

 

[kicksavedave]

Beg to differ, he said goalies drafted in the first round and then cited the years which happened to be 2012 and 2019 as being the years the goalies he mentioned were drafted. The word between was never mentioned.

Between Vasilesky and Malcom Subban in 2012, and Spencer Knight in 2019,

Not sure how that got confused but those are the years I referenced - as in between '12 and '19, there was only one drafted in the 1st. I did it that way because goalies drafted after 2019 would not be eligible anyway.

 

[Rayquaza64]

In this scenario we protect the steady guy and let Kraklovers take the enigma, right? Again not sure they would take a shaky goalie who has proved absolutely nothing, just because he was a #1 pick some years ago. Looked it up, drafted in 2015, so 7 years from then to the ED and not a lot to show for it so far.

Speaking of goalies drafted in the first round, surprising to see how few there are. Between Vasilesky and Malcom Subban in 2012, and Spencer Knight in 2019, there has been only one goalie drafted in the first round, and he currently has Covid and plays for the Caps.

Vanecek is steady because of a 5 game sample size, and Samsonov is an enigma even though he was great outside of a small stretch last year and was shaky his first two games back from a long break?

 

[kicksavedave]

Vanecek is steady because of a 5 game sample size, and Samsonov is an enigma even though he was great outside of a small stretch last year and was shaky his first two games back from a long break?

We're projecting a "what if" scenario for the end of the season, not what's happening right now. I did say "in this scenario".

 

[895]

Oh please. Yea. I will take that 2 in goal scoring. I also said you couldnt replace him and we all know I didnt just mean the goals. You think he will be worth his check or no?

I would say there is maybe an 60% chance he is worth his caphit next year and a less than 5% chance he is worth his caphit in the final 2-3 years.

 

[Rayquaza64]

We're projecting a "what if" scenario for the end of the season, not what's happening right now. I did say "in this scenario".

fair enough, i missed that. my apologies

 

[filinski77]

Yeah, completely disagree here. Oshie brings far more to the table than the goals he scores, and he is absolutely underpaid for his contribution for the team. Just look at similar FA's and the deals they got. Late 20's/Early 30's scoring wingers aren't usually successful UFA contracts.

That being said, I would still expose him to get out of the last 2-3 years of that contract.

I agree with this.

Expose him. If they take him, sucks, but we get out of 5.75 mil for a 35-38 year old. If they don't, that's fine because he's still a great player, and hopefully we can get 1-2 more of that after this season.

 

[pman25]

By the time TJ is exposed, it's four years @ 5.75, not exactly an awful contract and he's probably still good for 20 goals barring injury. H should have trade value as well. Why expose him for free? He has value. I just don't see the logic at all. Keep him and if we really need to ditch his contract, trade him for assets.