I think if this team wins the Cup, or comes close, there’s a good chance GMBM trades a draft pick for them to pick someone inconsequential. Paying them a 2nd to take someone like Panik could strike a nice balance between Seattle getting a guy who could be a good underdog performer for them (in the vein seen in Vegas), while trading a guy who is replaceable.
Unless Samsanov becomes an elite-level goaltender for the dominant part of this season, it’s hard to see him getting more than a modest bridge deal after this year. Being able to keep an affordable tandem for the next two years is crucial to our cap structure, so finding a way to protect both goaltenders might be more appealing with Seattle than with Vegas.
I just don’t see that answer being Oshie, though. Oshie’s current trajectory seems to be closely linked to the Caps’ window. We’ve seen them sign Backstrom long-term, and they’re hoping to do the same with Ovi, to effectively mortgage the company’s post-window years in exchange for maximising the win-now chances of today and tomorrow. I don’t see trading or exposing Oshie as fitting with that mindset, when he’s integral both to the Caps’ culture and to its on-ice performance.
I think moving Orlov off the books is one possibility instead, as much as they’d like to keep him. With Dillon signed, and depending on Siegenthaler and Alexeyev’s progress and Kempny’s recovery, Orlov could at some point be viewed as expendable given the limited role he plays on special teams, and him being a good but not elite player 5v5. I have to think the Caps expected his game to grow when they signed him to the deal they did, but in terms of points production he’s been stable since he was on the third pairing, needs the right partner to stay above water, and has a decent cap hit. I don’t see him being exposed, but if GMBM could get a good return for him I think he’d consider it, if the depth on D continues to be what it is now.
Alternatively, if they don’t see Alexeyev as progressing as they hoped, I can see him being part of the Seattle solution. He’s probably still considered a good prospect right now, and we’ve seen how quickly prospects can lose value when their progress is slow (Djoos made the team in 2018-2019 out of fear he’d be claimed on waivers, whereas Johansen is waived each year without a moment’s thought. His NHL prospects don’t look great for a former first rounder.)
On the other hand, I can also see Ovechkin trading salary stagnation for a shorter term deal, given the current financial and Cap constraints from COVID. From Ovi’s perspective, it helps the team stay competitive in the short term while giving him more moral/reputational freedom to leave for Russia a couple of years later, if he wants to, without breaking any promises. Ovi’s cap hit staying similar makes a huge difference to the Caps’ structure next year. If they don’t need to move salary off the books, I don’t think they’ll be looking to move a key piece for the sake of it.
