Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 3

[txpd]

Not advocating bringing Chara back one way or another but if you didn't put people on ignore for hurting your feelings then you'd have seen this post, which shows that among the most used PKers in the league our guys weren't that bad:

Speculation: - Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

Any stats on QOC for PK?

I am not sure how you add it up. The defenseman that leads his team in penalty kill minutes per game on a top 5 in the league penalty kill is bad at penalty killing.

 

[txpd]

Player	TOI (in minutes)	xGAR/60 Shorthanded D
Trevor van Riemsdyk	34	1.876
Brenden Dillon	101.3	1.257
Nick Jensen	140.6	0.269
Dmitry Orlov	30.9	0.227
Zdeno Chara	145.7	0.114
John Carlson	96.6	-0.600

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I originally included the past 3 years because the TOI numbers are quite small for a single season and I wanted to increase the sample size, but last year's results alone don't really change the conclusions drawn from the 3-year sample. Chara wasn't particularly good (and Carlson was particularly bad).

Help me out. The team had a top 5 pk. Chara and Jensen played the most mins and were largely together. Orlov and TvR didnt really play. How could both of the guys that played the most mins on a really good pk be at the same time really bad at the pk?

 

[Hivemind]

Help me out. The team had a top 5 pk. Chara and Jensen played the most mins and were largely together. Orlov and TvR didnt really play. How could both of the guys that played the most mins on a really good pk be at the same time really bad at the pk?

Nobody has said Jensen is bad at the PK. What multiple posters have pointed to is how much Jensen outperformed Chara on the PK, despite them sharing minutes. That heavily suggests that Jensen was the player on that pairing carrying the weight on the PK.

It's entirely possible for a team to have an ice-time leader that's neutral or worse at their role and still be good overall at killing penalties (or other aspects of hockey).

 

[txpd]

Nope. That's entirely missing my point. It's not that the Caps only got to play those really bad teams.

It's that since it was only divisional games last year, and with the 4 top teams qualifying for the playoffs, that any decent team with a heartbeat would have made it to the playoffs in the East last year.

As long as you are a slightly better team than Buffalo, New Jersey, and Philadelphia (who were 3 really really bad teams), you automatically are given a playoff berth.

The Rangers were the exception and we knew they weren't ready. And yet they still gave us trouble.

Based on the record of the 4 playoff teams, the only teams with a heartbeat, what do you take from that? The best record lost in the first round and the worst record advanced?

 

[txpd]

zzzzzzzzzz

 

[Hivemind]

Jensen outperformed him by 0.15 and Dillon outperformed Jensen by nearly 1.0. I take from that 0.2 and 0.1 are about the same.

Brendan Dillon had a very good season on the PK (at least when he wasn't the one in the box), nobody is disputing that. If you read back the posts on the last page, I even specifically mentioned the loss of Dillon will be felt on the PK. If you look at his 3-year xGAR numbers, Dillon does come back to Earth substantially (granted much of this was from time in San Jose). Single year sample sizes are always going to be noisy for PK/PP stats.

Jensen's numbers also spike tremendously in the 3-year compared to the 1-year, adding further credence to the discussion that Chara was dragging down Jensen on the PK. You can also compare the raw GA/60 numbers posted on the last page and see the differential between Chara and Jensen was pretty significant.

 

[Raikkonen]

I consider PK as Fever's bread and butter. He should be able to handle it.

Now if there are only Orlov and AA besides him, well, they can still use Orlov in the regular season and go shopping at deadline if required.

Orlov is kinda awkward at PK to my eyes (and we know I dont know much about hockey). But in this situation why not?

If AA is up to NHL speed - let him play. I consider AA as potentially better than all options (Dillon, Kempny, Fever, 45yo Chara). Can he play PK though? No idea.

This is veteran roster, possibly without Schultz and with 2 reliable defensive RDs (TVR and Jensen). Its a very good situation to let Fever and AA get into action. If they both progress, its what the doctor ordered.

 

[tenken00]

Based on the record of the 4 playoff teams, the only teams with a heartbeat, what do you take from that? The best record lost in the first round and the worst record advanced?

Nothing. Just that the regular season last season really is a nothing burger. Nothing to crow about.

So you take away nothing.

 

[Raikkonen]

If Kempny is healthy and they can get under the cap (for some reason I still believe they cant get there without moving one of the RDs) Im fine with Kempny as 3rd LD (with Carlson or not).

But thinking about PK... Kempny is not that good there too. So they are in tough PK situation anyway.

 

[Kalopsia]

Thats really not the equation though. Its a team game. The defense is a group of 6. If I had to choose between a 21 year old up and comer and the old guy, I would choose the kid. If Kempny is the 2LD, then I would choose Fehervary over Chara. On the other hand if Fehervary is the 2LD, and the choice is between another kid and Chara, Its a different choice entirely.

I also think that of they decide to roll the dice with Kempny, its going to come up craps. Kempny played himself off the ice the last time he played for the Caps and I find it hard to believe that tearing his achilles tendon has made him better.

I am pretty sure that what they said was that he could stay as the 7th and that most of the games would go to the young players. If the Caps offered him a 7d job, he would pass for sure. Right now the Caps are going to need at least 1 LD that they can rely on to kill a penalty and they dont have one right now. Maybe its not Chara, but with Dillon and Chara not returning, they have nothing in that regard. They aren't just thin.

I totally get what you're saying about the composition of the defense. Until last night I was holding out hope that MacLellan would find a way to trade Kempny and sign Ryan Murray, who was the last LHD on the free agent market who looked capable of taking a big role on the PK and at even strength. With Murray off the market now, I just don't see a way fit that type of player onto the roster anymore. I share your doubts about Kempny (to be clear, I don't want him penciled into the lineup, I just think that's the direction they're going), and I don't think Chara is good enough on the PK anymore to justify the risk created by counting on a guy ran out of steam by the time the playoffs started after a shortened season this year, who'll be 45 by the time the playoffs start next year after a season with a compressed schedule. I think he'll be an absolute pylon by next April if a team plays him every night. I'd love for the Caps to have added a Ryan Murray type, but if the choice is ancient Chara vs injury-riddled Kempny vs wildcard Alexeyev, I'm taking the wildcard. At the very least a left side of Orlov-Fehervary-Alexeyev should be much more mobile and productive at ES, which could cushion the blow to the PK, and the experience Fehervary and Alexeyev get will set the team up better for next year.

 

[Kalopsia]

If Chara averages whooping 7,something against fe Dillon a bit less than 3,5 per 60 - that totals to a 7 goals differential for a record of last season.

Just for some context, if you remove 7 GA from last year's Caps, their team save percentage jumps from .906 to .911, and they go from 17th in GA/G to a tie for 11th. It's a bigger deal than it might initially seem.

 

[twabby]

Is xGAR really a good measurement of PK ability?

I think it's probably good enough. Certainly better than GA or anything else simple like that.

Different models use different calculations, but none paint Chara in a particularly great light. For instance, Hockeyviz has the following estimate for Chara's PK ability:

Below average at preventing chances against on the PK, when accounting for teammates, opponents, zone-starts, etc.

And TopDownHockey has Chara at 0.02 WAR at shorthanded D, compared to 0.07 for Jensen and 0.18 for Dillon. (These are raw numbers, not per 60).

There's quite a bit of agreement between the different models about how the Capitals performed shorthanded last year, and Chara was ordinary. Nothing seems to suggest he is needed next year in that role.

 

[g00n]

I think it's probably good enough. Certainly better than GA or anything else simple like that.

Different models use different calculations, but none paint Chara in a particularly great light. For instance, Hockeyviz has the following estimate for Chara's PK ability:

View attachment 459183

Below average at preventing chances against on the PK, when accounting for teammates, opponents, zone-starts, etc.

And TopDownHockey has Chara at 0.02 WAR at shorthanded D, compared to 0.07 for Jensen and 0.18 for Dillon. (These are raw numbers, not per 60).

There's quite a bit of agreement between the different models about how the Capitals performed shorthanded last year, and Chara was ordinary. Nothing seems to suggest he is needed next year in that role.

How does that compare to other top minute-getters per team on the PK around the league?

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

I totally get what you're saying about the composition of the defense. Until last night I was holding out hope that MacLellan would find a way to trade Kempny and sign Ryan Murray, who was the last LHD on the free agent market who looked capable of taking a big role on the PK and at even strength. With Murray off the market now, I just don't see a way fit that type of player onto the roster anymore. I share your doubts about Kempny (to be clear, I don't want him penciled into the lineup, I just think that's the direction they're going), and I don't think Chara is good enough on the PK anymore to justify the risk created by counting on a guy ran out of steam by the time the playoffs started after a shortened season this year, who'll be 45 by the time the playoffs start next year after a season with a compressed schedule. I think he'll be an absolute pylon by next April if a team plays him every night. I'd love for the Caps to have added a Ryan Murray type, but if the choice is ancient Chara vs injury-riddled Kempny vs wildcard Alexeyev, I'm taking the wildcard. At the very least a left side of Orlov-Fehervary-Alexeyev should be much more mobile and productive at ES, which could cushion the blow to the PK, and the experience Fehervary and Alexeyev get will set the team up better for next year.

Next year..as in the season after next?

By that time Ovi will be 38, Backstrom will be 35, and Oshi will be 36. They don’t have the time to go development mode for a year.

 

[Kalopsia]

Brendan Dillon had a very good season on the PK (at least when he wasn't the one in the box), nobody is disputing that. If you read back the posts on the last page, I even specifically mentioned the loss of Dillon will be felt on the PK. If you look at his 3-year xGAR numbers, Dillon does come back to Earth substantially (granted much of this was from time in San Jose). Single year sample sizes are always going to be noisy for PK/PP stats.

Jensen's numbers also spike tremendously in the 3-year compared to the 1-year, adding further credence to the discussion that Chara was dragging down Jensen on the PK. You can also compare the raw GA/60 numbers posted on the last page and see the differential between Chara and Jensen was pretty significant.

Dillon might legitimately just be an elite PKer. Over the last five years, out of 96 defenseman who played more than 500 minutes shorthanded in that span, he's the only one with a PK GA/60 below 5. Brent Burns is #2, so you could make an argument that maybe Burns was carrying him, but separated from Burns this past season Dillon was #1 and Burns was #31 (min 100 minutes SH), so it seems like Dillon was doing the carrying.

Also, Jensen's right there at #3 despite spending more than half that period on some Red Wings teams with godawful goaltending, so I think he deserves acknowledgement as an elite PKer too. Lends more credibility to the argument that Chara was dragging him down.

 

[txpd]

Nothing. Just that the regular season last season really is a nothing burger. Nothing to crow about.

So you take away nothing.

On the one hand you take away nothing on the other hand you have taken away that they are mediocre and after a first round exit need real change to the fabric of the team. Maybe its just me but if I can take nothing away from a situation that situation doesnt sell me that I need to make major changes

 

[Kalopsia]

Next year..as in the season after next?

By that time Ovi will be 38, Backstrom will be 35, and Oshi will be 36. They don’t have the time to go development mode for a year.

That's a pretty disingenuous interpretation of my comment. I thought I was pretty clear in saying that while starting Alexeyev isn't ideal, he's a better option for the Caps this year than Kempny or Chara (or any other LD still on the FA market), and as an added bonus his development makes things better for next year too. I don't think starting him means sacrificing this year for next year relative to the other realistic options. The best option would be if MacLellan could pull off a trade where he dumps Kempny or Schultz and gets a vet LHD capable of PKing and getting second pairing minutes, but that seems like a pipe dream.

 

[tenken00]

On the one hand you take away nothing on the other hand you have taken away that they are mediocre and after a first round exit need real change to the fabric of the team. Maybe its just me but if I can take nothing away from a situation that situation doesnt sell me that I need to make major changes

Oh nope. I've already mentioned that it's the 3 1st round exits in a row is what shows that we need to change it up. I think I've mentioned it 379r8948 times lol

 

[TheLegendOfPatPeake]

That's a pretty disingenuous interpretation of my comment. I thought I was pretty clear in saying that while starting Alexeyev isn't ideal, he's a better option for the Caps this year than Kempny or Chara (or any other LD still on the FA market), and as an added bonus his development makes things better for next year too. I don't think starting him means sacrificing this year for next year relative to the other realistic options. The best option would be if MacLellan could pull off a trade where he dumps Kempny or Schultz and gets a vet LHD capable of PKing and getting second pairing minutes, but that seems like a pipe dream.

Agree to disagree that it is disingenuous. Having two rookie defensemen in the top six and two young goaltenders sure seems to me like a development year because they are going to get absolutely shell shocked.

 

[Hivemind]

Oh nope. I've already mentioned that it's the 3 1st round exits in a row is what shows that we need to change it up. I think I've mentioned it 379r8948 times lol

You know it’s a lot of times when there’s an r in the number

 

[tenken00]

Next year..as in the season after next?

By that time Ovi will be 38, Backstrom will be 35, and Oshi will be 36. They don’t have the time to go development mode for a year.

We all agree that this as why we feel the pressure now. And why it's so hard to pull it off. Another championship. But with next season where Ovie is 37, Backstrom is 34, and Oshie is 35... its pretty similar.

We are going to get to the point where we are going to have to make some decisions.. some pretty tough ones.

 

[txpd]

Oh nope. I've already mentioned that it's the 3 1st round exits in a row is what shows that we need to change it up. I think I've mentioned it 379r8948 times lol

Correct. So the nothing burger is really more than that. Thats all I am saying.

 

[Kalopsia]

Agree to disagree that it is disingenuous. Having two rookie defensemen in the top six and two young goaltenders sure seems to me like a development year because they are going to get absolutely shell shocked.

You ignored the majority of my comment where I was arguing that Alexeyev was better than Kempny or Chara for this year, then took the part where I said playing Alexeyev was better for next year too and acted as if I was arguing for a developmental year, which isn't at all what I was saying. That's pretty textbook strawman-ing. I'm not suggesting they tank this year in favor of improving their chances next year, I'm saying their options are so limited at this point that gambling on Alexeyev is the best they can do. He could be terrible, but IMO Kempny and Chara and the remaining UFAs are also terrible options and at least Alexeyev has upside. If you wanna debate who's the best option for next year between Alexeyev, Kempny, Chara, or whatever dumpster dive UFA is left, that's fine, but don't try to attack an assertion I didn't actually make.

 

[tenken00]

Correct. So the nothing burger is really more than that. Thats all I am saying.

Well the nothing burger is that we shouldn't let the covid season really affect our decision making because it was so... different. Different and we were guaranteed a top 4 spot. That's why last regular season is a nothing burger.

A 7 game playoff series is still a 7 game playoff series though. And we lost 4-1.

 

[Hivemind]

On the one hand you take away nothing on the other hand you have taken away that they are mediocre and after a first round exit need real change to the fabric of the team. Maybe its just me but if I can take nothing away from a situation that situation doesnt sell me that I need to make major changes

The point isn't the that their regular season outcomes are mandating change (their playoff outcomes are). The point is that you've repeatedly used their regular season outcomes for maintaining the status quo, and folks were demonstrating how their latest regular season outcome is a result of abnormal scheduling due to COVID more than anything else. Your evidence for maintaining the status quo isn't all that great.