twabby
Registered User
- Mar 9, 2010
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By naturalstatrick Jensen xGA on penalty kill was 19-20 37.26 and 20-21 22.18. xGAR/60 was -4.72 and 1.45. I might be reading this wrong but im looking different graphs than you. You are the ’guy’ with advanced stats, so i do think you have the right ones.
So you take a 5 game sample over 56 games sample, and four game sample over 70 game sample as when it comes to overperforming the team stats.
Habs on various meters was not too good the past regular seasons. It only takes as much statistics as points total to see that.
I think lot of these stats are more result of team system, profitable/negative usage and just being at the right spot to succeed or not to. More than as an absolute indicator of players capabilities, theres just too much variables. They are better used as an tool to work out how to make your system work even better. It might be you can find a guy who does better within our system than Chara on a single diagram or maybe few, but it might have its net negative effect on another diagram too. Thats why we still have actual coaches doing the decisions, instead of AI robots, we are far from figuring this out quite yet.
Not sure where you're getting the Natural Stat Trick data. As far as I'm aware they do not have a GAR or xGAR model. For the expected goals stats here is where I am getting the season-data for Jensen and Chara at 4v5:
2019-20: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
2020-21: Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
You're right there are tons of contextual factors to consider when evaluating individuals using statistics, but I'd rather have a discussion about those contextual factors and how they might impact the numbers rather than just dismissing the numbers as useless if everyone isn't in agreement about a particular player/team/idea. I think it's also important to realize that coaches are not infallible and that we can't just rely on their decisions to always be the best ones. IMO there were plenty of mistakes that Peter Laviolette made this season and especially postseason despite him being pretty well regarded as a coach.