Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 3

[Kalopsia]

All AA has to do is win a job. Chara isn’t being gifted anything.

He left Boston because they wouldn’t promise him a top 6 spot. You think he stays here if the Caps don’t promise him a top 6 spot?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He left Boston because they wouldn’t promise him a top 6 spot. You think he stays here if the Caps don’t promise him a top 6 spot?

I think he was better than what we had…..nobody exactly beat him out in camp.

I’m sure they had him penciled in because they knew their own guys’ limitations.

 

[twabby]

I agree, the players on the Capitals just need to win their spots in the lineup. Nothing is gifted to anyone.

On an unrelated note, let's check the time on ice figures for the Capitals in the last playoffs:

Player	Games Played	Time on Ice per Game
Justin Schultz	5	22:23
Trevor van Riemsdyk	0	0:00

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Hivemind]

He left Boston because they wouldn’t promise him a top 6 spot. You think he stays here if the Caps don’t promise him a top 6 spot?

Precisely. If he's willing to accept a part-time mentor/depth role, he'd return to Boston.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Now all you have to do is get the coach to agree with you.

 

[twabby]

Now all you have to do is get the coach to agree with you.

Agreed. The good thing is coaches are well-known for tolerating imperfection from rookies and holding them to the same standard as veterans.

 

[txpd]

I would much rather have a 22 year old Alexeyev with a year of NHL experience under his belt as my 6D than a 45 year old Chara who’s just slogged through a compressed 82 game schedule. No way does Chara have anything left in the tank come April if he’s a regular this season. Alexeyev’s a gamble, but I’ll take a gamble over a guy I know is washed.

That said, I think the Caps are gonna roll the dice with Kempny rather than playing Alexeyev or bringing back Chara.

Thats really not the equation though. Its a team game. The defense is a group of 6. If I had to choose between a 21 year old up and comer and the old guy, I would choose the kid. If Kempny is the 2LD, then I would choose Fehervary over Chara. On the other hand if Fehervary is the 2LD, and the choice is between another kid and Chara, Its a different choice entirely.

I also think that of they decide to roll the dice with Kempny, its going to come up craps. Kempny played himself off the ice the last time he played for the Caps and I find it hard to believe that tearing his achilles tendon has made him better.

 

[txpd]

That was the whole point I was trying to make the past few pages. I don't know if we are winning it all this year with either Chara or Alexeyev. But I would feel better losing with Alexeyev than Chara. Need to at least start the movement towards youth.

As for your question: Alexeyev. Because it won't be right now Alexeyev vs right now Chara.

It will be end of season Alexeyev vs end of season Chara.

Chara made a clear impact on the quality Jensen's game last season. You are saying you would rather Fehervary make half as much progress as he would make with Chara there because you would rather get Alexeyev the experience? I would much prefer to give myself a better chance to win now and down the road with one kid and one veteran than two kids.

I mention this one more time. The balance of the defense corp for offense and defense and for power play and penalty kill is much better with a left side of Orlov, Fehervary and Chara than Orlov, Fehervary and Alexeyev.

 

[Ridley Simon]

You just completely ignored his point about only intradivisional games. League-wide standings literally mean nothing, since we essentially had four separate leagues during the regular season.

The Caps profited off of beating up Buffalo and New Jersey. More than 1/3 of their points came from those two teams alone. The Capitals won less than half of their games against fellow playoff teams (11 of 24 in the regular season, and just 1 of 5 in the playoffs). So, yeah, I'd consider that pretty mediocre.

So the Caps were the only team that played Buff and NJ that many times?

 

[txpd]

He left Boston because they wouldn’t promise him a top 6 spot. You think he stays here if the Caps don’t promise him a top 6 spot?

I am pretty sure that what they said was that he could stay as the 7th and that most of the games would go to the young players. If the Caps offered him a 7d job, he would pass for sure. Right now the Caps are going to need at least 1 LD that they can rely on to kill a penalty and they dont have one right now. Maybe its not Chara, but with Dillon and Chara not returning, they have nothing in that regard. They aren't just thin.

 

[Hivemind]

Right now the Caps are going to need at least 1 LD that they can rely on to kill a penalty and they dont have one right now. Maybe its not Chara, but with Dillon and Chara not returning, they have nothing in that regard. They aren't just thin.

Chara was not good at penalty killing last year. He played a ton, but he gave up a ton of goals against. Among the Caps D, only Siegenthaler gave up a higher Goals Against/60 than Chara. Chara's GA/60 while shorthanded was 7.26. The next worse was his frequent PK partner, Jensen, but Jensen's GA/60 was only 5.53 (a significant margin better than Chara's). The other LD clocked in at 3.58 (Orlov) and 3.51 (Dillon). Those other LD were literally giving up goals half as frequently as Chara was while on the PK.

The loss of Dillon will hurt the PK, but bringing Chara back isn't going to replace Dillon anymore than trusting a prospect would. Increasing Orlov's PK minutes will do wonders for the PK, and provides them their most reliable LD PKer remaining.

 

[Empty Goal Net]

Hoping the team's brain trust stocks the roster with a perspective that extends beyond this upcoming season. I have my doubts about 2 rookies in the top 6 D, but ... if giving AA (or any other younger guy) more minutes this year at the expense of a veteran is going to help that guy become a more complete and effective player next season, then those factors have to be considered. I'd rather the team just squeak into the playoffs (or even miss them completely) if it means having a more well-rounded and experienced roster in 2022-23. And maybe the younger bodies will be better positioned to handle a long slog if the team survives multiple playoff rounds in 21-22.

 

[g00n]

Chara was not good at penalty killing last year. He played a ton, but he gave up a ton of goals against. Among the Caps D, only Siegenthaler gave up a higher Goals Against/60 than Chara. Chara's GA/60 while shorthanded was 7.26. The next worse was his frequent PK partner, Jensen, but Jensen's GA/60 was only 5.53 (a significant margin better than Chara's). The other LD clocked in at 3.58 (Orlov) and 3.51 (Dillon). Those other LD were literally giving up goals half as frequently as Chara was while on the PK.

The loss of Dillon will hurt the PK, but bringing Chara back isn't going to replace Dillon anymore than trusting a prospect would. Increasing Orlov's PK minutes will do wonders for the PK, and provides them their most reliable LD PKer remaining.

Not advocating bringing Chara back one way or another but if you didn't put people on ignore for hurting your feelings then you'd have seen this post, which shows that among the most used PKers in the league our guys weren't that bad:

Speculation: - Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

Any stats on QOC for PK?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Agreed. The good thing is coaches are well-known for tolerating imperfection from rookies and holding them to the same standard as veterans.

yup….pretty standard…time to accept it.

 

[Roshi]

Chara was not good at penalty killing last year. He played a ton, but he gave up a ton of goals against. Among the Caps D, only Siegenthaler gave up a higher Goals Against/60 than Chara. Chara's GA/60 while shorthanded was 7.26. The next worse was his frequent PK partner, Jensen, but Jensen's GA/60 was only 5.53 (a significant margin better than Chara's). The other LD clocked in at 3.58 (Orlov) and 3.51 (Dillon). Those other LD were literally giving up goals half as frequently as Chara was while on the PK.

The loss of Dillon will hurt the PK, but bringing Chara back isn't going to replace Dillon anymore than trusting a prospect would. Increasing Orlov's PK minutes will do wonders for the PK, and provides them their most reliable LD PKer remaining.

Sorry but for me this is another example of stats making it sound worse than it actually is.

Chara averaged 2:41 shorthanded time per game. Thats about 25 games to make it through ”60”. On a 52 game schedule thats 2 scretches.

If Chara averages whooping 7,something against fe Dillon a bit less than 3,5 per 60 - that totals to a 7 goals differential for a record of last season.

Now Dillon averaged 1:47. Almost a minute less per game. And thats through all the 52 games. For me thats putting Chara in a quite huge disadvantage, as the more time you spend short handed (for me) means the more likeliness to get scored against. No?

Then you start thinking about the minutes. Who they play against, with, quality of the minutes. Fatique. Etc.

Thats the narrative i dont like about overdiving into the advanced stats sea. It doesnt see the surroundings of the stat, just the number.

But i do like to see you putting the effort and dig into it, as there is always some truth there aswell. Our PK was pretty good overall, and its likely not just because of Chara was so good at it. Its another team effort and Chara can likely be replaced too.

And still, No matter what the stats say, last year when protecting a lead and going into the PK, first guy im sending in is big Z.

 

[twabby]

Not advocating bringing Chara back one way or another but if you didn't put people on ignore for hurting your feelings then you'd have seen this post, which shows that among the most used PKers in the league our guys weren't that bad:

Speculation: - Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) - 2021 Off-Season Pt. 2

Any stats on QOC for PK?

It's not quite QOC, but Evolving-Hockey has expected GAR for shorthanded defense. It takes into account context such as zone-starts and QOC (along with QOT). Here are the results over the past 3 seasons:

Player	TOI (in minutes)	xGAR/60 Shorthanded D
Trevor van Riemsdyk	173.6	1.087
Nick Jensen	494.2	0.956
Dmitry Orlov	204.6	0.825
Michal Kempny	208.1	0.647
Brenden Dillon	337.9	0.263
Zdeno Chara	544.8	0.042
John Carlson	400.3	0.038

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The numbers here don't really suggest Chara brought anything meaningful to the PK (he was slightly better last year at 0.114 xGAR/60) and it's likely that some combination of Orlov/Fehervary/Kempny/whoever else can pretty easily replace his PK minutes. As with Chara's even strength numbers, it appears that Jensen was the one doing more of the heavy lifting when the two were on the ice together despite the narrative that Chara made Jensen better.

Also there is no reason John Carlson needs to be playing on the PK next year. TVR and Jensen can more than handle the load and with Carlson's worrisome injuries over the past few years there's no need to subject him to tough PK minutes when he needs to play better at even strength going forward.

 

[twabby]

yup….pretty standard…time to accept it.

The reality is clear, but this also contradicts your statement that Alexeyev can simply play his way onto the roster over Chara if both were on the roster. The deck is stacked against Alexeyev (and Fehervary, for that matter) and perhaps it'd be better to force Laviolette's hand by not giving him another veteran to mistakenly play over a superior rookie.

 

[g00n]

It's not quite QOC, but Evolving-Hockey has expected GAR for shorthanded defense. It takes into account context such as zone-starts and QOC (along with QOT). Here are the results over the past 3 seasons:

Player	TOI (in minutes)	xGAR/60 Shorthanded D
Trevor van Riemsdyk	173.6	1.087
Nick Jensen	494.2	0.956
Dmitry Orlov	204.6	0.825
Michal Kempny	208.1	0.647
Brenden Dillon	337.9	0.263
Zdeno Chara	544.8	0.042
John Carlson	400.3	0.038

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The numbers here don't really suggest Chara brought anything meaningful to the PK (he was slightly better last year at 0.114 xGAR/60) and it's likely that some combination of Orlov/Fehervary/Kempny/whoever else can pretty easily replace his PK minutes. As with Chara's even strength numbers, it appears that Jensen was the one doing more of the heavy lifting when the two were on the ice together despite the narrative that Chara made Jensen better.

Also there is no reason John Carlson needs to be playing on the PK next year. TVR and Jensen can more than handle the load and with Carlson's worrisome injuries over the past few years there's no need to subject him to tough PK minutes when he needs to play better at even strength going forward.

Ok that's 3 years, including time with Boston. What about just last year relative to teammates?

 

[twabby]

Ok that's 3 years, including time with Boston. What about just last year relative to teammates?

Player	TOI (in minutes)	xGAR/60 Shorthanded D
Trevor van Riemsdyk	34	1.876
Brenden Dillon	101.3	1.257
Nick Jensen	140.6	0.269
Dmitry Orlov	30.9	0.227
Zdeno Chara	145.7	0.114
John Carlson	96.6	-0.600

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I originally included the past 3 years because the TOI numbers are quite small for a single season and I wanted to increase the sample size, but last year's results alone don't really change the conclusions drawn from the 3-year sample. Chara wasn't particularly good (and Carlson was particularly bad).

 

[twabby]

The shorthanded numbers above also make it clear to me just how much Justin Schultz on the roster hurts the team. Schultz being in the lineup typically forced out one of Jensen or TVR out of the lineup (mostly TVR), which is bad enough. But it also forces Carlson into PK duty which as we can see may hurt the team.

Not only does Carlson on the PK hurt the team by virtue of him being on the ice, but it also hurts the team because I suspect those added PK minutes might fatigue Carlson and hurt him at ES and perhaps on the PP.

I think the best option going into next year is to have both Jensen and TVR in the lineup and allow them to take all of the shorthanded minutes on the right side except for odd minutes here and there when one of them are in the box, for example. This will allow for Carlson's overall TOI to drop a bit, and it could lead to more effective play during the time he is on the ice.

 

[Hivemind]

@Roshi there's some truth to what you said, but a lot of the rest of your post is speculative and also ignoring some of the existing evidence.

First off, a 7 goal differential over the course of a season is pretty huge (especially in a shortened season). The Caps only gave up 26 short handed goals last year, 7 goals in a whopping 27% of their grand total. The Caps had the fifth ranked raw % PK in the league. If the Caps swing 7 goals in the positive direction, they're the #1 PK in the league by about 1.5% better than Vegas. If the Caps swing 7 goals in the negative direction, their 5th ranked PK plummets all the way to a tie with Ottawa and Columbus for 20th at a very pedestrian 79%. 7 goal on the PK is a lot

(There's also a parallel conversation about using raw PK% vs Net PK%, which accounts for how many shorthanded goals a team scores. Chara wasn't doing them many favors in the latter department, and the Caps only scored 2 SHG last year, which drops their 5th rated raw PK% to 8th in Net PK%)

Next, there are metrics that incorporate a lot of what you describe, but some folks around here just eyeroll as soon as you bring them up. So I'm using the "actual stats" and "actual goals" that txpd won't groan about as soon as they're mentioned. Rest assured that the relative stats, QoC stats, and expected stats don't paint Chara in a much better light. But even with just these traditional numbers, we have a control factor to look at. Nick Jensen. Zdeno Chara performed significantly worse than his most frequent PK partner, Jensen. Both of them saw similar total ice time, deployments (def zone faceoffs% vs on the fly%), and match-ups. Yet Chara's GA/60 was notably worse than Jensen's (and Hagelin and Dowd's for that matter).

There is some truth to first-wave PKers having worse stats than 2nd/3rd wave PKers (namely because the offensive team gets a chance to set-up without having to gain the zone if they win the initial draw), but the degree to which Chara's stats are worse than his teammates outpaces that significantly. Especially when his stats are worse than other first wave PKers on the Caps. And the first wave PKer rule isn't even entirely universal (Boston's 1st and 2nd pairings are about equal in GA/60, Whitecloud has a worse GA/60 than the top pair in Vegas, Hamilton faired worse than the top D in Carolina, etc)

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

The reality is clear, but this also contradicts your statement that Alexeyev can simply play his way onto the roster over Chara if both were on the roster. The deck is stacked against Alexeyev (and Fehervary, for that matter) and perhaps it'd be better to force Laviolette's hand by not giving him another veteran to mistakenly play over a superior rookie.

no, it really doesn’t if he’s good enough supplant a vet. He hasn’t been. Simple.

 

[twabby]

no, it really doesn’t if he’s good enough. He hasn’t been. Simple.

The goal is, or should be, to ice the best team possible. Suppose Alexeyev is better than Chara, but not so much better as to force Laviolette's hand to play him over Chara. Of course we can just say that Alexeyev should perform even better so as to force Laviolette's hand. But shouldn't we also look at Laviolette and say why aren't you playing the better player? I imagine some people here are using this logic when saying they'd like to move on from Chara.

By taking away a trusted veteran as an option, it could force Laviolette into icing a better team. I'm not saying Alex Alexeyev is better than Chara. I don't know who is better. But I get where people are coming from when they say they want to ice a younger roster.

 

[g00n]

Player	TOI (in minutes)	xGAR/60 Shorthanded D
Trevor van Riemsdyk	34	1.876
Brenden Dillon	101.3	1.257
Nick Jensen	140.6	0.269
Dmitry Orlov	30.9	0.227
Zdeno Chara	145.7	0.114
John Carlson	96.6	-0.600

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I originally included the past 3 years because the TOI numbers are quite small for a single season and I wanted to increase the sample size, but last year's results alone don't really change the conclusions drawn from the 3-year sample. Chara wasn't particularly good (and Carlson was particularly bad).

Is xGAR really a good measurement of PK ability?

 

[tenken00]

So the Caps were the only team that played Buff and NJ that many times?

Nope. That's entirely missing my point. It's not that the Caps only got to play those really bad teams.

It's that since it was only divisional games last year, and with the 4 top teams qualifying for the playoffs, that any decent team with a heartbeat would have made it to the playoffs in the East last year.

As long as you are a slightly better team than Buffalo, New Jersey, and Philadelphia (who were 3 really really bad teams), you automatically are given a playoff berth.

The Rangers were the exception and we knew they weren't ready. And yet they still gave us trouble.